Gabriel's Grand Weekend Preview: for 27/28 April

Premiership

Man City vs. West Ham

Both these team's seasons are decided now. City have officially lost the title, West Ham are already in the enviable position of 10th with 42 points, thanks to a fine run of form. Although they're not so good away from home, I don't think the Hammers will roll over here, because they are a solid team, as recent games have proven. Man City to scrape the win. 1-0.

Everton vs. Fulham

In terms of what there is to play for, this fixture hasn't got a dissimilar setup. Everton, like Man City, have missed out on a prize at the top, in their case that final Champions League spot. And Fulham, like West Ham, are definitely safe, although they've only taken a point from 4 games. It's Fulham's poor run of results that makes me think this'll be a more comfortable win for Everton than the West Ham game will be for Man City. 2-0.

Southampton vs. West Brom

Based on form and home advantage, I've got to go for a Southampton win. They've picked up 11 points from 5 games which is fantastic, and they probably deserved to win at Swansea last week. 2 points from 4 games, West Brom look to be finishing this season on the beach a little bit, and I reckon Southampton have it well within them to secure victory. 2-0.

Stoke vs. Norwich

Stoke got a crucial win at QPR last week, and it's slightly strange to think that if they win this they could go level on points with Fulham. They looked in some serious trouble when they lost at home to Aston Villa, but they seem to have given themselves to breathing space. That's what I love about following relegation battles towards the end of the season - back-to-back wins change everything. Norwich got their crucial win against Reading, which I think will see them safe now, but they've got a very poor away record, so I'll go with Stoke. 1-0.

Wigan vs. Tottenham

The obvious prediction is to go with Tottenham after beating Man City, but it would be such classic Wigan to win this. Away performances from them, against City and West Ham recently, have been good, yet they lost both games. Does that indicate the belief within the squad is still there, or that they lack a winning mentality to pinch results? I have got a strong feeling the Latics will get a result from this game, but it'd be too much to say they'll get a win, so I'll go with a draw. 2-2.

Newcastle vs. Liverpool

I'm not going to have as much a go at Suarez as some will for his bite on Ivanovic, because it came across to me as more idiotic than vicious. I simply don't understand what he was thinking, or what he was planning to achieve by biting another players' arm?! Makes no sense. I reckon this will affect Liverpool, not just from a goalscoring point of view but mentally, so I think Newcastle will win to put an end to their relegation fears. 1-0.

Reading vs. QPR
With both teams essentially relegated, rarely can a game be approached with such apathy. I can see a very flat Madjeski stadium, and I just can't see there being any goals. I don't know why this'll be on TV because even thinking about the prospect of the game is a little bit depressing, I'd feel for the fans who have to witness it, so I'll move on. 0-0.

Chelsea vs. Swansea
With just 2 points from 5 games, and one win since their Carling Cup victory, Swansea's season is fading slightly, perhaps understandably so. Remarkably, this will be Chelsea's 9th fixture in April, yet despite the FA Cup and Europa League distractions, they've still picked up 7pts from 3 games in the Premiership, and some credit needs to go to Benitez for that. Despite the heavy fixture list, I'll back Chelsea to continue to build momentum by winning this game. 2-0.

Arsenal vs. Man Utd
Wenger was right to get his players to form a guard of honour, and I reckon that might give Arsenal the kick up the backside they need to put in a strong performance. Man Utd have already won the title, but I'd fancy them in this game a lot more if they hadn't, because I'm not sure whether the motivation will be there in the United camp. I reckon Arsenal will come out fighting in this one, and I'll say they'll nick it 1-0.

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland
In a similar way to Stoke, Sunderland were in massive trouble when Di Canio took over, but back-to-back wins and the picture has changed completely! Villa are more in the thick of the relegation battle than Sunderland, if Wigan did win a game in hand, Villa would go into the drop zone on goal difference. I think it'll be a tight game, with a draw being the most likely outcome. 1-1.

Championship

Leicester vs. Watford

Watford need to win this to have a shot at automatic promotion, but with Bolton travelling to champions Cardiff tommorrow, Leicester have a big opportunity to increase their play-off claims this weekend. A draw won't be good enough for either side, so I can see an entertaining match here, that could go either way. 2-3.

Barnsley vs. Hull

You could say this will depend on what happens on Friday night with Watford, but the objective for Hull shouldn't change. They need a win to go up, and I don't think it'll do them any favours to be dwelling on the Watford game too much the night before. I know that if Watford draw, Hull will only need a draw but the trouble with that is that if Watford win, that could creep into their minds a bit. It's better to concentrate on your own game. Barnsley are right in the mix at the bottom, and could be effectively relegated on Saturday night with a much worse goal difference than Peterborough and Wolves. I think they might need to hope for favours from elsewhere to keep themselves in with a shout of staying up. 0-2.

Blackburn vs. Crystal Palace
3 wins from 4 games should keep Blackburn up now, and they play a Palace side who are severley lacking the momentum normally needed to go into a play-off contest, as they're without a win in 7. Despite the sizeable distance between them in the table, Blackburn's home record is actually a lot better than Palace's away record, so I'd back the Rovers for this. 2-1.

Blackpool vs. Derby
Blackpool have the opportunity to put the humiliation from fellow-seasiders Brighton last weekend, by making sure of survival this. I think they'll do that, because only 2 teams have won less away games than Derby, and the Rams have little to play for. I'll say Ince's side will sneak the win, because up until that thrashing they were in fact looking quite solid defensively. 1-0.

Bristol City vs. Huddersfield
The Robins are relegated now but credit to them for showing some mental strength to get a point at Hull last Friday, so they're not going down quietly. With Wolves and Peterborough having winnable home games, Huddersfield can't afford to lose this and get dragged into the relegation battle. Bristol City will want to put in a spirited performance for their last home game of the season, so I think it'll be a draw. 2-2.

Cardiff vs. Bolton
It's very common for a team, once crowned champions, to take their foot off the gas a little bit and I wonder if that might happen with Cardiff. Bolton will be fighting hard for the win in their battle for a play-off spot, so I think they might turn Cardiff over. 1-2.

Ipswich vs. Birmingham
We're both safe, so I think the game will have a relaxed, serene feel to it. Both teams will be able to experiment and play without the pressure of a desperate need for points. We're both in decent form, I think a draw is probably about right. 1-1.

Leeds vs. Brighton
Brighton are limbering up very nicely for their play-off tie - which they can secure with a win against Leeds - by thrashing Blackpool. That result will have been a big confidence booster for them, and although Leeds have got a pretty good home form, they've also got nothing to play for so I can see a comfortable Brighton win. 0-2.

Middlesbrough vs. Charlton
Charlton are now several places above Middlesbrough, which you'd have never believed at the end of December, when the Addicks were 18th in the table and Borough were 3rd! It's been a fantastic second half for Charlton, but equally a dreadful capitulation from Middlesbrough. I think the morale will be a lot higher in the Charlton camp, and statistics show that they do better away from home, so I reckon they'll win this. 0-2.

Millwall vs. Nottm Forest
All that talk about the difference Billy Davies has made to Forest, when they won 6 games on the trot, has evaporated as they've now gone 6 games without a win. That said, they're only 2 points away from the play-offs, so victory at Millwall would be important for them. The Lions are only 4pts away from the drop, they can't feel comfortable yet, so I'm thinking a draw. 1-1.

Wolves vs. Burnley
Burnley, like Millwall, are just 4pts away from the relegation zone, but have a considerably better goal difference which will help. It's do or die for Wolves, and with them in the relegation zone going into the match, it'll be a very nervy game for them. Wolves simply have to win, but I wonder if the pressure will be too much for them. I fancy Burnley to get a point. 1-1.

Peterborough vs. Sheff Wed
Peterborough are locked on points with Wolves, and have to win this. It'll be a big pressure game, and not dissimilar to with the promotion race, it might not help Peterborough having Wolves playing whilst the Posh are warming up! I very much want them to stay up, partly because I'm an admirer of their transfer policy (that and I hate Wolves!), but whether their very young team can deal with the pressure, I would doubt. 1-1.

Gabriel's Grand Weekend Preview: for 13/14 April

Premiership

Arsenal vs. Norwich

Arsenal need the points more, are at home, and are simply the better team. They've got two games at the Emirates to play before either Spurs or Chelsea kick a ball, so this is the perfect opportunity for them to really hone in on that 4th spot to put pressure on their London rivals. With three matches against relegation clubs coming up, this isn't the game Norwich are going to secure survival on. 3-0.

Aston Villa vs. Fulham

Villa's young guns are starting to flourish just at the right time. They put in a very strong performance against Stoke, which should give them the confidence to put forward a late surge to secure safety. I reluctantly think they'll do that by beating Fulham, who I predict will be 'on the beach'. 2-0.

Everton vs. QPR

This will be such a difficult game, mentally, for QPR. The late Wigan equalizer last week means they have an ever-refuting chance of staying in the Premiership, which in turn means the club will be in tatters financially. I reckon the players will be so preoccupied with what will happen for them individually in the summer, in terms of whether they'll still be there, that they won't have the mentality to compete against a team like Everton. 4-0.

Reading vs. Liverpool

And the same could perhaps be said for Reading. Liverpool should have beaten West Ham last week, but I just can't see Reading - with the worst defensive record - keeping Suarez quiet. Adkins is a decent player motivator so I don't think the Royals will crumble entirely, but they just won't be strong enough in my view. 0-2.

Southampton vs. West Ham

I think it'll be a bore draw, because for either team to have the slimest chance of getting dragged into a late relegation battle, they'd obviously need to lose this. Both teams will probably settle for a point, West Ham have a good defensive record - I reckon their strength in midfield will be able to deal with Pochettino's high pressing game - so I think this might be goalless.

Newcastle vs. Sunderland

The stakes simply couldn't be higher for Sunderland. After their second-half defeat against Chelsea, the Sunderland board's controversial decision to appoint di Canio remains very much in the balance. My gut tells me that this sinking feeling Sunderland seem to be getting - without a win since mid-January - might just continue. I'm not taking this prediction lightly because it could well go either way, but I think Newcastle will put the Black Cats further in trouble. 2-0.

Stoke vs. Man Utd

The Manchester Derby on Monday night was a bit of a damp squib given the distance by which United were, and are still, ahead. Of course they'll have been disappointed to lose, but I think they'll bounce back and clinch the title in the next few weeks now. Stoke are still slipping quite dangerously, and after being mid-table for so long, they'll need to mentally adjust to get the results in their three massive games after this. 0-3.

Championship

Leicester vs. Birmingham

Decided not to go up, will watch this on TV instead. Having been in automatics for so much of the season, Leicester are without a win in 8, and desperately need a win. Whilst they'll have a lot of pressure on them going into the game, we'll have none on ourselves. We've got nothing to play for, are away from home, and I wonder if this might just work in our favour. We can be effective on the counter attack, which will be key, so I actually think we might win. 0-1.

Leeds vs. Sheff Wed

Leeds have lost their last 4, and if they're not careful, could be drawn into an ever-condensing Championship relegation battle. To breathe safely, they would need to win against a Sheffield Wednesday team who are 2pts below them, but have strung an impressive 7 points from their last 3 games. I'm backing Wednesday, as the form team, to do the damage and leave Leeds faultering somewhat. 0-1.

Barnsley vs. Charlton

Both teams have had similarly positive results recently. Barnsley have won their last 2 home games and held Crystal Palace away to a goalless draw, whilst Charlton have done the same, and they held Brighton to goalless at the AMEX. It'll be a close game, with a draw being the most likely outcome. 1-1.

Blackburn vs. Derby

Blackburn are in freefall. They've gone 10 games without a league win and all of a sudden, they find themselves in the bottom three for the first time, so the pressure on them will be massive. I think playing at home will work against them in this game, the fans could really get on their back if they start poorly. There is absolutely no pressure on Derby, who have nothing to play for, are away from home and can approach the game in a relaxed way. Controversially, I predict this will give the Rams a massive advantage, they'll avenge the 3-0 FA Cup defeat to Blackburn back in January. 0-3.

Blackpool vs. Burnley

Getting a point at in-form Forest was a terrific result for the Tangerines, although their relegation fears aren't over yet, so I reckon they'll go into this game with the perfect level of motivation. Burnley have picked up some decent results lately, yet their only win in their last 6 was at home to Bristol City, who are bottom, so I'll back Blackpool with home advantage. 2-1.

Bristol City vs. Bolton

It's probably a good thing that Sean O'Driscoll never looks at the table! Bottom of the league, 1 point from their last 4 and 8 adrift of safety, it doesn't look too rosy for the Robins. In addition, they've picked completely the wrong time to play Bolton who, at this late stage, are finally showing what they're squad is capable of on a more consistent basis. I fancy the Trotters to comprehensively sweep City aside, and strengthen their play-off claims. 1-4.

Cardiff vs. Nott'm Forest

My money is definitely on Cardiff. I know Forest are unbeaten under Davies, but whenever a team is top of the league by a distance towards the end of the season, they often put on a final spurt to make sure they get over the line. I think this'll be the case with Cardiff, especially having been the unlucky team in the play-offs for the past few years. They'll want to knuckle down and make sure they secure Premiership football next season. I'd tip them to win whoever they were playing. 2-0.

Ipswich vs. Hull

This is a Hull win in my book. Ipswich's win at Derby means they're safe, and could therefore lack the fighting spirit needed to play against a top team like Hull. To be fair, Hull's recent form hasn't been fantastic, with 3 wins and 3 defeats from their last 6. But they still find themselves 3pts clear of 3rd place, so I think that's enough of an incentive for them to clinch the win. 0-2.

Middlesbrough vs. Brighton

Middlesbrough are still on this woeful run, having lost 5 of their last 6, and with just one win in 11 games. When you're on that kind of sequence, it can be quite difficult for any manager to motivate the players. Whilst the Borough's play-off hopes have evaporated before their eyes, Brighton's are still bubbling away nicely. 2 points clear of 7th, their chances of getting a spot are good but nowhere near guarenteed, so I think they'll have considerable more impetus than their opponents. 0-2.

Peterborough vs. Watford

In some ways, Watford have done some important damage limitation in the last couple of weeks. Although they remain 3pts behind Hull in 3rd, they actually won at the KC to cut the deficit, and managed a reasonable draw at home to runaway leaders Cardiff. Taking 4pts from the teams in 2nd and 1st is an intriguing sign of their promotion credentials, and to play away from home against a team desperately battling relegation will fit Watford style of play like a glove. They are devastating on the counter-attack when teams push forward against them. 1-3.

Wolves vs. Huddersfield

Both of these teams are currently outside the relegation zone, but that won't make this game any less nerve-wracking for the fans. Wolves need to build on the brief spurt they put together over Easter, which was ended by that defeat at Bolton, to pull themselves away from trouble. At the moment Huddersfield are doing just enough to stay outside the drop zone, but still seem to be making things hard for themselves. I predict that the team who scores first will cling onto a win, and I'm going to go with Wolves given home advantage. 1-0.

Foreign leagues

Celta Vigo vs. Real Mallorca

After back-to-back wins over Granada and Sevilla just a few weeks ago, Mallorca did look to be climbing out of the relegation dogfight, but 5-goal thrashings by Real and Barca sandwiching a damaging defeat at home to Deportivo has sent them down to bottom again. But they can come off the bottom by beating Celta Vigo, who held Barcelona to a shock 2-2 draw recently, but unfortunately they followed that up by losing 2-0 at home to Rayo Vallecano, which suggests that result was a bit of a one-off. I'll back them to edge out Mallorca at home, in what I imagine be a scrappy game, that is typical of bottom-of-the-table encounters. 1-0.

Schalke vs. Bayer Leverkusen

This is a big game in the battle for 3rd place, and the automatic place in the Champions League group stage that comes with it. Leverkusen currently hold a 4 point advantage, but Schalke are at home, and have bounced back from losing 3-0 at Nuremburg by winning back-to-back games. Contrastly, Leverkusen have taken only 4 points from their last 4 matches, and are having a bit of a wobble. Despite the table difference, I do think the momentum is going to be with Schalke, so I'll say they'll get the win which will cut Bayer's lead over them to a single point. 2-0.

Lille vs. Marseille

The battle for that final Champions League spot in France is very tight, with just 2 points separating 4 teams. Lille certainly displayed their credentials for a place when they beat FC Lorient 5-0 in their last match, but Marseille, who haven't conceded in 4 games now, will provide a much sterner test of Lille's attacking talent. But the Ligue 1 title well out of Marseille's hands, so this game feels like a draw. 1-1.

AC Milan vs. Napoli

Although this is 3rd against 2nd, the destiny of the top 3 spaces in Serie A seem to be pretty transparent, so there's no extra incentive for either team. Although AC Milan have kept 4 clean sheets from their last 5 league games, they surprisingly dropped a late 2-goal lead at Fiorentina last time out, which could have been a bit disgruntling for them. Because Napoli have been scoring a lot of goals lately, they've won their last 3, I think they'll have just enough attacking power to nick a goal against this Milan defence. 0-1. 

Blues v Blackpool preview

Man United are playing Real Madrid Tuesday night? Whatever. Who cares about that when you can watch Blues versus Blackpool, eh? I’m going down to St. Andrews for the first of what must go down as back-to-back winnable home games. From those I would say 4pts is the aim, to take us a step closer to those 50 points we’re likely to need for survival. We’re 42 down, 8 to go…

Looking back…

I didn’t go to Hull myself, thankfully, as usual I watched the football league show until our game finished, and I also read some of the papers’ reports on the match. Although the first couple of goals came through the centre – surprisingly, given we had Spector, Elliott and Reilly in midfield – the general consensus from fans was that we were beaten too easily down their right flank. Colin Tattum said that Callum Reilly seemed indecisive, not knowing whether help match up Hull’s 3 man midfield and then leave the inexperienced Hancox vulnerable to Elmohammady on our left, or support Hancox but then create space for Hull through the middle.

I want to say that I’m always going to judge Clark completely fairly. I’ve defended him quite a bit in the past, not because I’m confident about his ability as a manager, but because we have limited alternatives to sticking with him. But he hasn’t escaped my criticisms this week. He said the goals “weren’t the formations or the tactics, it was decision making and individual errors”. I simultaneously agree and disagree with that. Firstly, his comment implies that the two are mutually exclusive, which I’m not sure they are. Mistakes can be reduced if there’s a thoroughly thought out and effective plan in place, in my opinion.

I’ll concede that having Reilly in limbo between the left and centre might have worked theoretically, due to his impressive energy when he hasn’t got the ball. In reality though, it created gaps for Hull to exploit, which they did with their numerical advantage in midfield. A better option for me, would have been to keep Spector, Elliott and Reilly tight together in midfield, and give Ferguson his debut out on the left. After all, what did he loan him in for? Because he already has some experience of playing left-back, Ferguson could have doubled up on Elmohammady when required and help Hancox out a bit. The drawback of that would have been we’d have needed to sacrifice a striker against a 3-man defence, but away from home against a top team – who were out to prove a point – we simply needed to be more solid. And we weren’t. Clark has to take some responsibility for that.

My starting XI

The other disappointment of Saturday was probably Butland’s performance. Maybe the expectation levels of him have risen since his transfer to Stoke, so it’s more noticeable when he makes mistakes, but seeing the goals, he could have kept out at least one of Hull’s strikes. On the other hand, apparently he made a good save. It’d be pretty harsh to have a dig at Butland after one poor game.

Caldwell came off after 38 minutes on Saturday and was replaced by Paul Robinson, who filled in at centre-back. I wonder if Caldwell is suffering from jadedness, as seems to have been the case with him for most of the season! Because he’s not the quickest player, I would probably move to criticize Clark for not giving him rests earlier in the season. He’s been practically an ever-present for us, but his performances from an athleticism point of view, have hardly merited that. I would have given Ibanez some game time now and again, because it would have meant Caldwell gets the rest he needs and if he got injured later on in the campaign, Ibanez would have been better prepared to come into the team and replace him. Perhaps Clark’s argument would be that Caldwell is captain, but I think it was a case of priorities- we need to keep our experienced players fit. If Caldwell has been bombarded with too many matches, I fail to see how it do much good to keep playing him. I personally would rotate Caldwell for this game, no matter how much he seems to have recovered from his illness, but whether Clark will do that is another question.

It’s unclear what formation their new manager, Paul Ince, will decide on. In his last two matches, he’s opted for a 4-4-1-1, but both of those were at home. In his first and only away match at Leeds, he’s gone for 4-5-1 with attacking wingers. Let’s not concern ourselves too much with who Ince will play though. Realistically, a home game against Blackpool is obviously one we should be looking to win, so it’s 4-4-2 for me whatever team Ince plays. I reckon it would be inadvisable to try and match them up, we should be looking to stamp our own authority on the game, and play to our own strengths.

I’d have Spector and Elliott in the middle, Burke and Ferguson on the flanks. This is a reasonably attacking team, the likes of Burke, Elliott and Ferguson can all make their mark going forward. It can be dangerous, with attacking wingers in a 4-4-2, to only have one defensive minded midfielder, in this case Spector. It means we’re potentially more susceptible to counter-attacks, but I think on balance it would be a gamble worth taking. Zigic has the most impact when he has a wide circle of players around him for support. That way, you can get the ball to his head from out wide or from midfield, he’ll always flick it on and if we get enough people in the box, we normally get a shot off in a matter of seconds. However, if there’s no support for Zigic, in some ways you may as well direct the ball into thin air, because he’ll get the flick on but the ball will just go to an opposing defender. For Zigic to cause any problems, we must gamble on getting bodies to surround him.

Seeing as Marlon King is out for the season, I’d controversially be inclined to partner the big Zig with Wes Thomas. Part of the problem at Hull, people have reported, was that there was little mobility up front. Lovenkrands has Premiership quality technical skills but he’s simply not fast enough. Thomas can form a good partnership with Zigic because he’s a little harder to mark, so Zigic can knock the ball down into the spaces, and with Thomas’s pace, he has more initiative to receive the ball. It takes longer for Lovenkrands to escape his marker.

So my team would be: Butland; Caddis, Davies, Robinson, Hancox; Burke, Spector, Elliott, Ferguson; Zigic, Thomas. Agree with me? Feel free to make your comments on what you think of my team and who you would pick.

Blackpool this season

Not many Blackpool fans would have believed me if I told them that this is where they’d be after the first 3 games of their season, because started their campaign dramatically well. They won their first 3 matches, before they had a dip in form and their treasured Ian Holloway left in favour of the Crystal Palace job. Since then, they’re onto their fourth manager of the season – fifth if you include Steve Thompson’s two stints as caretaker – and aren’t too far from the drop zone.

The latest man to take the hotseat by the seaside is Paul Ince. Ince is yet to see them score their first goal under his leadership, never mind first win! He’s played 3 matches, lost one, and seen two goalless draws.

My prediction

It’s not exactly been a honeymoon period for Ince so far, so I have a distinctly positive feeling about this game. I think Zigic can have a big impact on Tuesday night if he is given enough support, and if he plays, I’m hopeful that Wes Thomas can get his first goal for the club. I’m going to go with my heart on this occasion, I think we can get an early goal to break Blackpool’s resistance.

My prediction

After predicting 3-0 to Hull last time, and actually being fairly close, I’m feeling optimistic for this game. I think Zigic can spearhead our attack to victory and provide a first goal for Wes Thomas, who I hope plays. I reject the notion that without King we’re powerless in front of goal, because if anything I believe Thomas will give us more work rate front than King would, which is something we’ve actually lacked in recent weeks. And Lovenkrands, though he has underperformed this season, he has shown flashes of real quality. For some reason, I reckon we’ll get an early goal to break Blackpool’s resistance, and then hopefully then the rest of the evening will fall into place. Now that’s fighting talk.

3-1

My Premiership predictions

Chelsea vs. West Brom

I think in many ways, Rafa was setting himself up to be sacked when he made those comments on Wednesday night, complaining about the 'interim' tag and having a go at the fans. I think there was more than a hint of truth in what he was saying, yet a manager that's trying to be successful at a club would have kept their toes well in line. It hasn't surprised me at all that he's leaving at the end of the season, but given the lack of a stable environment, I think Chelsea's results won't improve until then.

West Brom seem to be having a brief resurgence of their early season form, having won their last two matches, kicked off by winning 2-0 at Anfield a couple of weeks ago. I think the Baggies, with their recent lift in performances, have the ability to make it very difficult for Chelsea at what could be an uncomfortable atmosphere inside Stamford Bridge. I predict a tight game, and wouldn't be overly surprised if West Brom could pick up something, but I'll say Chelsea to scrape a 1-0 win.

Del's prediction: 2-1

Everton vs. Reading

A couple of weeks ago, I felt that Reading had it within themselves to stay up because of their team spirit- although I must say it wasn't an outright prediction! Ever since then, they've lost their last two games - and in both of them you'd have given them a good chance of getting a result - which Brian McDermott will have been disappointed with. Now, all of a sudden, the odds are back against them, and their next 3 away trips are to Goodison Park, the Emirates and Old Trafford! They've got their work cut out, but I've written them down and out before and been proved wrong. The whole relegation picture can change in a weekend.

Everton's loss at Norwich means I'm prepared to declare the Champions League spots as between the London clubs. I think Everton's main problem is that they've not got a recognisable goal threat, and I think Fellaini wants to go in the summer, so I doubt he'll be as effective in the second half of the campaign. They can still finish above Liverpool for a second successive season though, which would represent a big step in power switch in Liverpool. I think Everton will beat Reading 2-1.

Del's prediction: 1-1

Man Utd vs. Norwich

It'll be interesting to see who Ferguson plays for this. With United 12pts clear, having probably more than half an eye on the game against Madrid on Tuesday, I can see him rotating the squad. I would certainly want to rest the likes of Robin van Persie and one of Vidic and Ferdinand.

You might argue that Norwich could exploit this, but I genuinely don't think anything is a distraction for Manchester United. The strength in depth in that squad is powerful. For the first half of the season, United were always the 'comeback kings', but recently they've developed a different approach to their games, one of efficiency and industrialism. They've tightened up at the back lately, and like against Everton and QPR, they've scored the first goal and kept control of the game. 

I reckon they'll score a couple of goals in the first half, to give them a second period used purely as preparation for the Madrid match, when Ferguson can substitute more of his better players to keep them fresh. United will put Norwich away winning comfortably, but not boastfully, 2-0.

Del's prediction: 3-0

Southampton vs. QPR

QPR just couldn't handle Swansea's high pressing game and attacking football a few weeks ago, which leads me to think they won't be able to handle Southampton, who play with a similar style. Pochettino has done what he's had to have done, which is hit the ground running, but you'd have to give Saints fans a special mention for not 'booing' him when he took over, like Chelsea fans did with Benitez.

Despite the fact that QPR have got a decent defensive record, I've got a feeling Southampton will end up thrashing them. The Rs just aren't playing in an effective system at the moment, and I can't see a way back to survival for them. 4-0.

Del's prediction: 0-1

Stoke vs. West Ham

I can't see too many goals in this one. Apparently, Stoke are slightly more adventurous at home,  and they're a bit above the Hammers in the table, so maybe they can grind out a result. I do think that both teams' target men - Peter Crouch and Andy Carroll - will be completely marked out of the game by tall defences. I'm going to go 1-0 Stoke.

Del's prediction: 0-2

Sunderland vs. Fulham

Sunderland have lost their last 3 games and are beginning to head, perhaps closer than they would like, to the drop zone. The thing that reassures me about Sunderland's position though, is that they have got some high quality players in their team and have a strong defensive record. In fact, they've got a better home 'goals against' record than Manchester United. I do think they'll be okay. I'm going to back them to end their run of defeats by beating Fulham, who have picked up some points recently to go midtable, but I would argue that the Cottagers don't travel well and that they're in no relegation danger whatsoever, therefore won't need the win as much. 2-1.

Del's prediction: 0-2

Swansea vs. Newcastle

I wonder if Swansea could suffer from a hangover after winning the Carling Cup. It has often happened in the past when a midtable team wins the Carling Cup, that they struggle in the match afterwards, because the team has drunk too much champagne.

Newcastle's new French players have bedded in very quickly and should keep them out of trouble this season. I think they'll give a lot of energy closing down, particularly Sissoko, and I think they might disrupt Swansea's rythym. 0-2 Toon.

Del's prediction: 1-0

Wigan v Liverpool

I can see Wigan pulling off the win here. They thumped Reading 3-0, on their own turf, and before that won 4-1 at Huddersfield. Those sorts of results rarely prove to be one-offs, so I think they'll have the momentum to get all 3pts.

Liverpool got knocked out of the Europa League last Thursday which is probably a good thing for them- I really can't see how that competition benefits teams. At least now they have a chance to develop some consistency in their league form, but I just have a feeling Wigan will take the points here. 2-1

Del's prediction: 0-2

Tottenham v Arsenal

I'm having a very difficult time calling this. My immediate reaction to the game was that I didn't think Arsenal have the ability to handle Bale, so I decided on 2-0 Tottenham. But since then, I've begun to think that Arsenal do tend to raise their game for the North London derby. I also think they need the points to get into 4th which, with Chelsea's demise, is within their grasp so that'll be an incentive.

Then again Tottenham, for now at least, possess the best player in the Premiership in Gareth Bale. He is a sensational player, and with him on the pitch, Spurs will always have a chance of scoring goals. I don't really see an obvious world-class player at Arsenal, but it would be so typical of them to win at White Hart Lane after the few weeks Wenger has had. I'm going to go with my gut and say 2-3 Arsenal, in an enthralling match.

Del's prediction: 1-3

Aston Villa v Man City

A result against Man City would be an important confidence booster for the Villa going into two crucial games against the Premiership's bottom two clubs, Reading and QPR. Recent performances suggest they are capable of getting something here, it was only sloppy defending that denied them all 3pts against Everton, they beat West Ham and conceded another late goal last week, to drop a valuable point at Arsenal. They're only just inside the drop zone and it's not as if they're rolling over.

Mancini will need to pick up his men to keep their season going. They've given away the title that's for sure, so with little to play for, it'll be a test of Mancini's motivating skills to keep his team going. I might actually predict a draw for this, I think Villa will battle hard for a point. 0-0.

Del's prediction: 1-4

Alex Ferguson: the perfect blend of an idealist and a pragmatist

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled: 'idealists vs pragmatists: a look at manager styles', which explores the two main general types of managers at the elite level. The idealists are known for their ability to find the next hidden star, have a composed demeanour, they like to get the team playing entertaining football and look to leave long-term legacies at their club. However, with these traits come a certain stubborness to their philosophy, which occassionally prevents his team achieving ultimate glory- they're rarely prepared to sacrifice certain players they favour, and what they believe in, to do what is necessary to win trophies.

Then we have the pragmatists, who are the complete opposites. They will always play to the strengths of the squad available to them, and create systems designed to simply get the best out of their top players. They are efficient at keeping all of their players happy by rotating the squad, rewarding those who have played well with a starting place in the next match. They have excellent media-handling and dressing room skills, with an arsenal of devious motivation and mind-game techniques, made to provoke a certain reaction in his players or opposition team, to give his side an edge. They do tend to work best with a generous budget, but if the chairman is able and prepared to give him this, short-term success is almost guarenteed, before the pragmatist normally chooses to leave after a couple of years, in search of a new challenge.

Writing about these two different types, it has made me think about where Alex Ferguson fits in. He has been at Manchester United for 26 years, a team who have always been very exciting to watch, and that incurs the values of the idealist. However, to say he is too stubborn and hasn't been prepared to sacrifice his philosophy and change when football changes, has remained blindly faithful to players who aren't good enough, in fact couldn't be further from the truth.

But can you say that he is, for the most part, a pragmatist? Well, possibly. He's created very much a winning formula at Manchester United, has been able to quickly identify key players, such as Cantona or Ronaldo, and built his teams around them. I'd like to explore why, in many ways, Ferguson has the best of both types. He is the perfect manager.

His Idealism

1. The exciting football

I'm going to be honest here. My family absolutely despise Manchester United, because they've won too much that they, perhaps immorally take it for granted. I can understand that stance, but controversially I quite like them, and that's partly because of the football they play. 

As a Birmingham City fan, I've been to Old Trafford 5 times and on each of those occassions (except for once), we've been absolutely pummelled. Whilst my dad next to me would be scowling at how Ryan Giggs can be running rings around our defence into his mid-thirties, the chant of 'you've only come to see United' would break out. I would smile to myself knowing that that it wasn't an entirely false statement.

The way United play is not dissimilar to Barcelona in some respects. It's pass and move, attack, and it comes with a kind of relentless inevitability that they will definately score at some point. When United attack Blues, they might cross the ball in and we'd manage to head it out, but the ball would only end up back at Paul Scholes's feet, and he would instigate another attack. For us, it was a constant backs to the walls job, and that's impossible to defend against.

Over the last 20 years, Manchester United have become the Indiana Jones of football. If they're losing or drawing a match with 10 minutes to go, you can always bank on them to grab a goal or two, for me that's what makes them so exciting. 

I think for this 'you can run, but you can't hide' sort of attitude that United play with, Ferguson deserves much credit. Although Barcelona are brilliant at playing total football, with constant spontaneous movement, it seems to me like Pep sends his players out with little instruction, just to do their thing, whatever comes naturally. That's not to suggest he doesn't do any planning, but Barcelona under Guardiola would never change shape to accomodate their opposition's strengths/weaknesses. 

With Manchester United it's slightly different. There's a system behind it. By all accounts, Ferguson will furiously scheme, study and analyse the main weaknesses of his opposition team and will look to formulate a plan based on that. For example, in December of our first season in the Premiership, we played at United. Due to an injury to Martin Grainger I think it was, Steve Bruce was forced to give a debut to 17-year-old academy graduate Matt Sadler, at left back. Clearly as part of Fergie's plan, Paul Scholes directed all of his passes to the right wing, for David Beckham to try and manipulate the inexperienced Sadler.

2. A judge and developer of talent

In the development of a world-class player, there are several stages. When a talented kid is about 8 or 9, which seems ridiculously young but that's the way football is, they are signed by their local club in say Brazil or  Argentina (or Portugal in Ronaldo's case). Then, about a year later they are snapped up by one of their countries' biggest clubs to move through the youth system for about 7 years. It's the third stage that clubs like Manchester United comes in.

That club, and Alex Ferguson in particular, is fantastic at spotting potential talent at that stage. If you look at the number of bargain signings he has brought in, such as Solskjaer, Schmeichel and Cantona, they've been fantastic. Although I struggle to understand why they were sold, United also spotted the talent in Gerard Pique and Giuseppe Rossi, and made Cristiano Ronaldo a world-class player. Although he has had a whole scouting team underneath him for this, Ferguson has played a big part in Man United's ability to develop players with potential. He is almost as good as Wenger at that, even if Ferguson is rather more willing to part with larger sums of money to get the players he wants.

3. His loyalty

What amazes me, is that Ferguson was managing Man U in the mid-eighties. That seems unthinkable to me, because having been born in the 90s, I associate the 80s with the 'olden days'. When I think of the 80s, my mind immediately jumps to Chariots of Fire, Ronald Reagan, weird theme music to detective series, Flash Gordon, people with funny hairdos, Grease, parties, Madonna... you get the idea. Just to think that a football manager was in charge of a club at the same period of time, still is to this day - and is showing no signs of wanting to retire - amazes me. I struggle to know how Ferguson does it. You'd have to guess that he must have an incredible inner-drive and stamina, to succeed as much as he has done. 

His Pragmatism

1. The modernisation of United

Crucially, Ferguson has been willing to change United's game when football has changed. In 2002, he made an audacious and perhaps visionary move to bring in Carlos Quieroz as his assistant manager, and potentially his successor, to replace Steve McLaren. 

It was Quieroz who spotted and played a big part in the development of Ronaldo. When he signed, Ronaldo seemed happier to be beating a player than creating a goalscoring opportunity for his team, and with assist-machine Beckham gone, many questioned Ferguson and Quieroz's plans for the future.

But Ferguson clearly trusted them. Roy Keane, United's midfield general and captain for the last 12 and a half years, reportedly did not maintain a good working relationship with Quieroz, not liking his tactics and level of authority Ferguson gave him. Keane was therefore released, along with the likes of Phil Neville and Nicky Butt who carried the old school English mentality at United.

This was a brave statement of intent from Ferguson, to in a sense accept a transition period in order to build a team that was capable of competing in Europe, but it was one which held a great deal of forward planning.

2. A big game manager?

Over the years, United have become known for being a team that can handle the pressure in the big matches. I've done some research into this, looking since the 1992-93 season when they first won the title under Ferguson, at the number of points they've taken from the runner-up that season, or the Premiership winner if United didn't take top spot. The results are interesting:

93 v Villa- 1pt

94 v Blackburn- 1pt

95 v Blackburn- 6pts

96 v Newcastle- 6pts

97 v Newcastle- 1pt

98 v Arsenal- 0pts

99 v Arsenal- 1pt

00 v Arsenal- 4pts

01 v Arsenal- 3pts

02 v Arsenal- 0pts

03 v Arsenal- 4pts

04 v Arsenal- 2pts

05 v Chelsea- 0pts

06 v Chelsea- 3pts

07 v Chelsea- 2pts

08 v Chelsea- 3pts

09 v Liverpool- 0pts

10 v Chelsea- 0pts

11 v Chelsea- 3pts

12 v Man City- 0pts

In 20 title-chasing seasons under Fergie, the results from the big games are slightly unexpected. They've picked up exactly 40 points from the 40 matches, which averages 1 per game. Considering that you get 3pts for a win, that's not necessarily a good average, it's the equivalent of winning 1 game and losing 2. Furthermore, in just 4 of the 20 seasons have United gained an advantage over their rivals from the key matches, and in 6 of them they've taken no points at all. The last time United took maximum points from their rivals was in 1996, so maybe we can question the big game mentality many associate with United.

However, on the flip side of that, the fact that they've actually won 12 of these titles and have not got the best record against the top teams tells you something else. It only highlights their ability to grind out results in the potential banana-skin matches.

3. The motivation genius

Alex Ferguson is a fantastic psychologist, and my guess is that he does this by demonstrating a level of trust in his whole squad. By all accounts, he plans and plots his team selections months in advance, but has a way of keeping players who aren't in the team happy.

When United won the treble in '99, they had 4 top strikers in Andy Cole, Dwight Yorke, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Teddy Sheringham. That's not too dissimilar to this season. Andy Cole had a deadly finish on him, great composure and ability to lead the line, like van Persie. Dwight Yorke brought a great energy and could operate well in the space in front of the defence, like Rooney. Hernandez, like Solskjaer, is a great supersub with lightening pace and is an ideal poacher. Sheringham and Welbeck have brought slightly differing traits to the United teams.

For me, the key to United winning the treble in '99, was Ferguson's ability to keep all 4 strikers on their toes and fully motivated. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has spoken of the way he helped his confidence build. For instance, when United were drawing 1-1 at home to Spurs on the last day of the 98/99 season, they needed a win to win the title. Apparently Ferguson said: "it's okay, if we need a goal with 10 minutes to go, I'll just put Ole on". He wasn't needed in the end as United won 2-1, but Solskjaer has said that those words made him grow and simply feel big. If players walk onto the pitch with that kind of empowering motivator and man manager behind them, I'm not surprised United have won as much as they have in the last 20 years.

Blues v Watford preview

Ciao! Italian owners, an Italian manager, a classic Italian counter-attacking 5-3-2 formation, on Saturday we play a Watford team in a new-look Italian style. In fact, to say we’re playing Watford would be slightly misleading. We’re essentially playing the Udinese Calcio B team, because no less than 7 of Watford’s current playing staff have arrived on loan from the Italian club, who the new Watford owners also have control of. The imports have certainly worked for the Hornet’s though, because with the team just 3pts off the automatic promotion places, Premier League football at Vicarage Road next season seems a genuine possibility, so I think we may have our work cut out in this one.

My starting XI

At the time of writing, we’ve not got any new injury troubles to worry about, although I’m anxious to the see the return of ex-Man United trainees Jonathan Spector and Ravel Morrison to midfield. I think they’ll give us a boost, but thankfully in the last few games we’ve managed well enough without them.

Jack Butland is certainly showing no lack of desire to play for the club. After his arranged transfer to Stoke, to his credit, he’s put in 3 committed performances in a row, in all of which he has pulled off some fantastic saves. I’m sure Clark will stick with Butland and a back four of Caddis, Davies, Caldwell and Robinson. I do think the defence is gradually becoming more organised, and although I was calling for Caldwell’s removal a few weeks ago, maybe Clark keeping the same defence in place has played a part in it becoming more of a unit.

Wade Elliott seems to be flourishing in his new role in central midfield. Although it wasn’t necessarily a move I would have taken, I reckon Clark did the right thing moving him inside from the left. Elliott has a lot of experience to offer at the heart of this team, and the switch allows us to field another wide man, which is an area of the squad that we are strong in.

What I would be inclined to do though, is field a couple of midfielders alongside him that will provide more of a physical presence, and use a 4-5-1. I know it seems like a negative, McLeish-esque tactic to employ, but Watford have a lot of pace and movement in their team, they can be very effective when they are given time and space. My strategy would be to play Gomis and Reilly with Elliott, and cram the midfield. Those two will provide us with some tenacity, and I’d instruct them to always lay the ball off for Elliott, who can use his range of vision and passing ability to spray balls to the wing for Burke and Hall, to cause Watford some damage out wide.

I say this because one of the disadvantages of Zola’s 5-3-2 wingback system, is that they only have one wide man on each side, who is forced to do all of the running. I reckon we can exploit that. They’ll have three central midfielders, so if we can match them man for man in the centre of the park and deny them the space, and then get the ball to the wide areas, then we may see some joy. My thinking is that Burke and Hall/Redmond if he comes on, would need only beat one man, who may be tired from running up and down the pitch all afternoon, to have an unchallenged cross into the area. Also, if Caddis keeps making his attacking runs forward, which he is doing well at the moment, we may be able to manoeuvre a 2-on-1 situation down the right. In short, the plan has to be to try and isolate their wingbacks, in my opinion.

Marlon King would be the obvious choice to lead the line, because he holds the ball up quite well and provides a potent goal threat. If we were losing with 25 minutes to go, my strategy would be to take off Reilly and put on Nikola Zigic, who has become the new Geoff Horsefield or Kevin Phillips for us- a supersub you can always rely on for a goal. Because Watford’s right wingback, Marco Cassetti is 35, he could struggle against Redmond’s pace as a fresh substitute. I’d definitely want to stick Redmond on and try to give him as many one-on-one situations down the left against Cassetti as possible, because I’d always fancy him to beat his man for speed.

A summary of Watford’s season

Although there may be flaws in Zola’s system that we can potentially exploit, thus far it has certainly proved an effective one. After a midtable season in their last campaign under Sean Dyche, the Hornets are now up 3^rd in the Championship and are on a great run of form, having won 6 of their last 8 league games.

What we should also be wary of, is that Watford have by far the best ‘goals for’ record in the league when playing away from home. They hit teams on the counter attack with a frenetic pace and energy, and they are always looking for opportunities to feed poacher Matej Vydra, who provides their main goal threat. The Czech Republican, amongst those on loan at Watford from Udinese, has already scored a fantastic 19 goals from 27 league games this season. He’s one to watch out for.

My prediction

I think I’m going to go for a fairly high-scoring draw here. Vydra seems to score in more matches than he fails to at the moment, so although we’re beginning to look more resolute at the back, I would fear for Caldwell against his pace. However, I think the fact that Watford are playing with wingbacks will work in our favour, because we have some quality players out wide, who I could see flourishing in the one-on-one situations. Watford probably need the points more in their automatic promotion race, but with the game at St Andrews, I think it’s within our capability to hold them to a draw. I’ll say 2-2. Arrivederci.

Premiership predictions- 09/02/13

Hello scorers, hope you've all had a good week. I reckon this weekend will be an interesting one, I'm in fact tipping none of the top six teams to win. Before I get into the games, I'd like to mention Jamie Carragher, who has had a fantastic career with Liverpool. People pass on a lot of credit to players like Scholes and Giggs at Man United, but Carragher has been almost an ever-present in the Liverpool defence since he broke into the first team, and has had a very successful 23 year career as a one club man. I think he'll make an excellent pundit or coach. Respect.

Tottenham v Newcastle

With Jermain Defoe out for 3 weeks, I think Tottenham may struggle because he's been their main goal threat. If Adebayor, who's out of form at the moment, becomes unavailable then they don't have a recognised striker. Therefore, I'm backing Newcastle to snatch a point here because their new French signings have evidently rejuvenised them, with back-to-back wins since their arrival, after a slightly concerning run of form. The Toon have the ability  to get a result here, 1-1.

Chelsea v Wigan

For me, the shock is on the cards here. Chelsea are without a win in 4, the fans are calling for Rafa's head and there have been rumours about the return of Mourinho to Stamford Bridge. This won't help Chelsea in their preparation for this match, as they play a Wigan team who have  the ability to go out and play the top teams with no fear. I think this will be the shock result of the weekend, 0-2 Wigan.

Norwich v Fulham

A draw was the first result that came to my mind for this game. Norwich have steadied the ship a bit after some bad results getting respectable draws against Tottenham and QPR, whereas Fulham have lost 3 of their last 4. Having said that, the three defeats were against the Manchester clubs and they did beat West Ham a couple of weeks ago to keep themselves fairly adrift of the relegation battle. On the same points tally, neither side can quite afford to lose this if they want a comfortable enough run-in, so they both may approach this game with some trepidation, resulting in a goalless draw.

Stoke v Reading

Stoke showed vague signs of becoming tough to beat again, by losing just to the odd goal at the Emirates, but I don't think they'll keep a clean sheet here. Reading are in very good form at the moment and continued their habit of scoring late goals against Sunderland. I now think their self-belief, and of course Adam Le Fondre's goals, could keep them them up. I'll go for a draw here, 1-1.

Sunderland v Arsenal

Sunderland's defensive tactic is often to sit back, soak up the pressure and occassionally hit teams on the counter attack. I wonder if this may prove quite successful against Arsenal, who play with a reluctance to find the penetrating pass early, and I'm just not sure whether the Gunners will find a way through. I would expect them have a lot of possession, but after losing late at Reading I foresee an organised defensive display from Sunderland, so I'll go for goalless.

Swansea v QPR

It's interesting that QPR are unbeaten in 5 league games in 2012, having played the likes of Chelsea, Tottenham and Man City, but they've only actually won 1 of those. I do predict that at some point, these draws will turn into either wins or defeats, because draws aren't enough for them, so they'll have to start attacking teams soon. Their main problem is that Loic Remy is injured and Bobby Zamora has always got a knock, I don't think they'll score enough goals to stay up. 3-0.

Southampton v Man City

Pochettino must be wondering how he hasn't got his first win yet, and I think he can consider himself unfortunate. They played very well in his first game against Everton, were seconds away from beating Wigan and Alex Ferguson said they were the best team to come to Old Trafford! To motivate his team so well in the circumstances shows great character from the man, so I've got a feeling they can get a result out of Man City. I think the title race is over, and City will miss Kompany at the back, so controversially I'm going to back Pochettino to get that elusive first win, by beating the champions 2-1.

Aston Villa v West Ham

I'm surprised that this game is being played on a Sunday, because I don't think it'll be up to much. If I was a Villa fan - thank god I'm not but if I was - I would be very worried about West Ham's ability from set pieces. Villa still have little experience in defence, and West Ham are a very strong physical team. It will be a daunting situation for Villa's young guns to be fighting for a potentially future-defining three points, with the fans on their backs and up against the physical presence of a team like West Ham. I just don't think they'll cope with the pressure, so 0-1, and with the transfer window closed, you would ask: what now for Villa?

Man Utd v Everton

United often seem to have a big enough squad to not allow forthcoming/recently played Champions League matches to become a distraction, but I do think it'll play on their mind in this case. I think van Persie and at least one of Ferdinand or Vidic will be rested, the players may be subconsciously be thinking about the Madrid match. Also, if Phil Jones plays on the right side of midfield, which would be crucial in their attempts to block Everton's strong left side of Baines and Pienaar, he won't be at his full fitness having developed shingles recently. The opportunity is there for Everton to go and pick up a result. 2-2.

Liverpool v West Brom

I can only see a pretty big win for Liverpool here. They've redeemed themselves from losing at Oldham in the cup by coming close to beating Arsenal and Man City.  On the other hand, West Brom's seemingly decomposing defence won't be able to handle Suarez and Sturridge's pace and level of understanding. I'll go 3-0 the Reds.