My Premiership predictions

Chelsea vs. West Brom

I think in many ways, Rafa was setting himself up to be sacked when he made those comments on Wednesday night, complaining about the 'interim' tag and having a go at the fans. I think there was more than a hint of truth in what he was saying, yet a manager that's trying to be successful at a club would have kept their toes well in line. It hasn't surprised me at all that he's leaving at the end of the season, but given the lack of a stable environment, I think Chelsea's results won't improve until then.

West Brom seem to be having a brief resurgence of their early season form, having won their last two matches, kicked off by winning 2-0 at Anfield a couple of weeks ago. I think the Baggies, with their recent lift in performances, have the ability to make it very difficult for Chelsea at what could be an uncomfortable atmosphere inside Stamford Bridge. I predict a tight game, and wouldn't be overly surprised if West Brom could pick up something, but I'll say Chelsea to scrape a 1-0 win.

Del's prediction: 2-1

Everton vs. Reading

A couple of weeks ago, I felt that Reading had it within themselves to stay up because of their team spirit- although I must say it wasn't an outright prediction! Ever since then, they've lost their last two games - and in both of them you'd have given them a good chance of getting a result - which Brian McDermott will have been disappointed with. Now, all of a sudden, the odds are back against them, and their next 3 away trips are to Goodison Park, the Emirates and Old Trafford! They've got their work cut out, but I've written them down and out before and been proved wrong. The whole relegation picture can change in a weekend.

Everton's loss at Norwich means I'm prepared to declare the Champions League spots as between the London clubs. I think Everton's main problem is that they've not got a recognisable goal threat, and I think Fellaini wants to go in the summer, so I doubt he'll be as effective in the second half of the campaign. They can still finish above Liverpool for a second successive season though, which would represent a big step in power switch in Liverpool. I think Everton will beat Reading 2-1.

Del's prediction: 1-1

Man Utd vs. Norwich

It'll be interesting to see who Ferguson plays for this. With United 12pts clear, having probably more than half an eye on the game against Madrid on Tuesday, I can see him rotating the squad. I would certainly want to rest the likes of Robin van Persie and one of Vidic and Ferdinand.

You might argue that Norwich could exploit this, but I genuinely don't think anything is a distraction for Manchester United. The strength in depth in that squad is powerful. For the first half of the season, United were always the 'comeback kings', but recently they've developed a different approach to their games, one of efficiency and industrialism. They've tightened up at the back lately, and like against Everton and QPR, they've scored the first goal and kept control of the game. 

I reckon they'll score a couple of goals in the first half, to give them a second period used purely as preparation for the Madrid match, when Ferguson can substitute more of his better players to keep them fresh. United will put Norwich away winning comfortably, but not boastfully, 2-0.

Del's prediction: 3-0

Southampton vs. QPR

QPR just couldn't handle Swansea's high pressing game and attacking football a few weeks ago, which leads me to think they won't be able to handle Southampton, who play with a similar style. Pochettino has done what he's had to have done, which is hit the ground running, but you'd have to give Saints fans a special mention for not 'booing' him when he took over, like Chelsea fans did with Benitez.

Despite the fact that QPR have got a decent defensive record, I've got a feeling Southampton will end up thrashing them. The Rs just aren't playing in an effective system at the moment, and I can't see a way back to survival for them. 4-0.

Del's prediction: 0-1

Stoke vs. West Ham

I can't see too many goals in this one. Apparently, Stoke are slightly more adventurous at home,  and they're a bit above the Hammers in the table, so maybe they can grind out a result. I do think that both teams' target men - Peter Crouch and Andy Carroll - will be completely marked out of the game by tall defences. I'm going to go 1-0 Stoke.

Del's prediction: 0-2

Sunderland vs. Fulham

Sunderland have lost their last 3 games and are beginning to head, perhaps closer than they would like, to the drop zone. The thing that reassures me about Sunderland's position though, is that they have got some high quality players in their team and have a strong defensive record. In fact, they've got a better home 'goals against' record than Manchester United. I do think they'll be okay. I'm going to back them to end their run of defeats by beating Fulham, who have picked up some points recently to go midtable, but I would argue that the Cottagers don't travel well and that they're in no relegation danger whatsoever, therefore won't need the win as much. 2-1.

Del's prediction: 0-2

Swansea vs. Newcastle

I wonder if Swansea could suffer from a hangover after winning the Carling Cup. It has often happened in the past when a midtable team wins the Carling Cup, that they struggle in the match afterwards, because the team has drunk too much champagne.

Newcastle's new French players have bedded in very quickly and should keep them out of trouble this season. I think they'll give a lot of energy closing down, particularly Sissoko, and I think they might disrupt Swansea's rythym. 0-2 Toon.

Del's prediction: 1-0

Wigan v Liverpool

I can see Wigan pulling off the win here. They thumped Reading 3-0, on their own turf, and before that won 4-1 at Huddersfield. Those sorts of results rarely prove to be one-offs, so I think they'll have the momentum to get all 3pts.

Liverpool got knocked out of the Europa League last Thursday which is probably a good thing for them- I really can't see how that competition benefits teams. At least now they have a chance to develop some consistency in their league form, but I just have a feeling Wigan will take the points here. 2-1

Del's prediction: 0-2

Tottenham v Arsenal

I'm having a very difficult time calling this. My immediate reaction to the game was that I didn't think Arsenal have the ability to handle Bale, so I decided on 2-0 Tottenham. But since then, I've begun to think that Arsenal do tend to raise their game for the North London derby. I also think they need the points to get into 4th which, with Chelsea's demise, is within their grasp so that'll be an incentive.

Then again Tottenham, for now at least, possess the best player in the Premiership in Gareth Bale. He is a sensational player, and with him on the pitch, Spurs will always have a chance of scoring goals. I don't really see an obvious world-class player at Arsenal, but it would be so typical of them to win at White Hart Lane after the few weeks Wenger has had. I'm going to go with my gut and say 2-3 Arsenal, in an enthralling match.

Del's prediction: 1-3

Aston Villa v Man City

A result against Man City would be an important confidence booster for the Villa going into two crucial games against the Premiership's bottom two clubs, Reading and QPR. Recent performances suggest they are capable of getting something here, it was only sloppy defending that denied them all 3pts against Everton, they beat West Ham and conceded another late goal last week, to drop a valuable point at Arsenal. They're only just inside the drop zone and it's not as if they're rolling over.

Mancini will need to pick up his men to keep their season going. They've given away the title that's for sure, so with little to play for, it'll be a test of Mancini's motivating skills to keep his team going. I might actually predict a draw for this, I think Villa will battle hard for a point. 0-0.

Del's prediction: 1-4

Alex Ferguson: the perfect blend of an idealist and a pragmatist

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article entitled: 'idealists vs pragmatists: a look at manager styles', which explores the two main general types of managers at the elite level. The idealists are known for their ability to find the next hidden star, have a composed demeanour, they like to get the team playing entertaining football and look to leave long-term legacies at their club. However, with these traits come a certain stubborness to their philosophy, which occassionally prevents his team achieving ultimate glory- they're rarely prepared to sacrifice certain players they favour, and what they believe in, to do what is necessary to win trophies.

Then we have the pragmatists, who are the complete opposites. They will always play to the strengths of the squad available to them, and create systems designed to simply get the best out of their top players. They are efficient at keeping all of their players happy by rotating the squad, rewarding those who have played well with a starting place in the next match. They have excellent media-handling and dressing room skills, with an arsenal of devious motivation and mind-game techniques, made to provoke a certain reaction in his players or opposition team, to give his side an edge. They do tend to work best with a generous budget, but if the chairman is able and prepared to give him this, short-term success is almost guarenteed, before the pragmatist normally chooses to leave after a couple of years, in search of a new challenge.

Writing about these two different types, it has made me think about where Alex Ferguson fits in. He has been at Manchester United for 26 years, a team who have always been very exciting to watch, and that incurs the values of the idealist. However, to say he is too stubborn and hasn't been prepared to sacrifice his philosophy and change when football changes, has remained blindly faithful to players who aren't good enough, in fact couldn't be further from the truth.

But can you say that he is, for the most part, a pragmatist? Well, possibly. He's created very much a winning formula at Manchester United, has been able to quickly identify key players, such as Cantona or Ronaldo, and built his teams around them. I'd like to explore why, in many ways, Ferguson has the best of both types. He is the perfect manager.

His Idealism

1. The exciting football

I'm going to be honest here. My family absolutely despise Manchester United, because they've won too much that they, perhaps immorally take it for granted. I can understand that stance, but controversially I quite like them, and that's partly because of the football they play. 

As a Birmingham City fan, I've been to Old Trafford 5 times and on each of those occassions (except for once), we've been absolutely pummelled. Whilst my dad next to me would be scowling at how Ryan Giggs can be running rings around our defence into his mid-thirties, the chant of 'you've only come to see United' would break out. I would smile to myself knowing that that it wasn't an entirely false statement.

The way United play is not dissimilar to Barcelona in some respects. It's pass and move, attack, and it comes with a kind of relentless inevitability that they will definately score at some point. When United attack Blues, they might cross the ball in and we'd manage to head it out, but the ball would only end up back at Paul Scholes's feet, and he would instigate another attack. For us, it was a constant backs to the walls job, and that's impossible to defend against.

Over the last 20 years, Manchester United have become the Indiana Jones of football. If they're losing or drawing a match with 10 minutes to go, you can always bank on them to grab a goal or two, for me that's what makes them so exciting. 

I think for this 'you can run, but you can't hide' sort of attitude that United play with, Ferguson deserves much credit. Although Barcelona are brilliant at playing total football, with constant spontaneous movement, it seems to me like Pep sends his players out with little instruction, just to do their thing, whatever comes naturally. That's not to suggest he doesn't do any planning, but Barcelona under Guardiola would never change shape to accomodate their opposition's strengths/weaknesses. 

With Manchester United it's slightly different. There's a system behind it. By all accounts, Ferguson will furiously scheme, study and analyse the main weaknesses of his opposition team and will look to formulate a plan based on that. For example, in December of our first season in the Premiership, we played at United. Due to an injury to Martin Grainger I think it was, Steve Bruce was forced to give a debut to 17-year-old academy graduate Matt Sadler, at left back. Clearly as part of Fergie's plan, Paul Scholes directed all of his passes to the right wing, for David Beckham to try and manipulate the inexperienced Sadler.

2. A judge and developer of talent

In the development of a world-class player, there are several stages. When a talented kid is about 8 or 9, which seems ridiculously young but that's the way football is, they are signed by their local club in say Brazil or  Argentina (or Portugal in Ronaldo's case). Then, about a year later they are snapped up by one of their countries' biggest clubs to move through the youth system for about 7 years. It's the third stage that clubs like Manchester United comes in.

That club, and Alex Ferguson in particular, is fantastic at spotting potential talent at that stage. If you look at the number of bargain signings he has brought in, such as Solskjaer, Schmeichel and Cantona, they've been fantastic. Although I struggle to understand why they were sold, United also spotted the talent in Gerard Pique and Giuseppe Rossi, and made Cristiano Ronaldo a world-class player. Although he has had a whole scouting team underneath him for this, Ferguson has played a big part in Man United's ability to develop players with potential. He is almost as good as Wenger at that, even if Ferguson is rather more willing to part with larger sums of money to get the players he wants.

3. His loyalty

What amazes me, is that Ferguson was managing Man U in the mid-eighties. That seems unthinkable to me, because having been born in the 90s, I associate the 80s with the 'olden days'. When I think of the 80s, my mind immediately jumps to Chariots of Fire, Ronald Reagan, weird theme music to detective series, Flash Gordon, people with funny hairdos, Grease, parties, Madonna... you get the idea. Just to think that a football manager was in charge of a club at the same period of time, still is to this day - and is showing no signs of wanting to retire - amazes me. I struggle to know how Ferguson does it. You'd have to guess that he must have an incredible inner-drive and stamina, to succeed as much as he has done. 

His Pragmatism

1. The modernisation of United

Crucially, Ferguson has been willing to change United's game when football has changed. In 2002, he made an audacious and perhaps visionary move to bring in Carlos Quieroz as his assistant manager, and potentially his successor, to replace Steve McLaren. 

It was Quieroz who spotted and played a big part in the development of Ronaldo. When he signed, Ronaldo seemed happier to be beating a player than creating a goalscoring opportunity for his team, and with assist-machine Beckham gone, many questioned Ferguson and Quieroz's plans for the future.

But Ferguson clearly trusted them. Roy Keane, United's midfield general and captain for the last 12 and a half years, reportedly did not maintain a good working relationship with Quieroz, not liking his tactics and level of authority Ferguson gave him. Keane was therefore released, along with the likes of Phil Neville and Nicky Butt who carried the old school English mentality at United.

This was a brave statement of intent from Ferguson, to in a sense accept a transition period in order to build a team that was capable of competing in Europe, but it was one which held a great deal of forward planning.

2. A big game manager?

Over the years, United have become known for being a team that can handle the pressure in the big matches. I've done some research into this, looking since the 1992-93 season when they first won the title under Ferguson, at the number of points they've taken from the runner-up that season, or the Premiership winner if United didn't take top spot. The results are interesting:

93 v Villa- 1pt

94 v Blackburn- 1pt

95 v Blackburn- 6pts

96 v Newcastle- 6pts

97 v Newcastle- 1pt

98 v Arsenal- 0pts

99 v Arsenal- 1pt

00 v Arsenal- 4pts

01 v Arsenal- 3pts

02 v Arsenal- 0pts

03 v Arsenal- 4pts

04 v Arsenal- 2pts

05 v Chelsea- 0pts

06 v Chelsea- 3pts

07 v Chelsea- 2pts

08 v Chelsea- 3pts

09 v Liverpool- 0pts

10 v Chelsea- 0pts

11 v Chelsea- 3pts

12 v Man City- 0pts

In 20 title-chasing seasons under Fergie, the results from the big games are slightly unexpected. They've picked up exactly 40 points from the 40 matches, which averages 1 per game. Considering that you get 3pts for a win, that's not necessarily a good average, it's the equivalent of winning 1 game and losing 2. Furthermore, in just 4 of the 20 seasons have United gained an advantage over their rivals from the key matches, and in 6 of them they've taken no points at all. The last time United took maximum points from their rivals was in 1996, so maybe we can question the big game mentality many associate with United.

However, on the flip side of that, the fact that they've actually won 12 of these titles and have not got the best record against the top teams tells you something else. It only highlights their ability to grind out results in the potential banana-skin matches.

3. The motivation genius

Alex Ferguson is a fantastic psychologist, and my guess is that he does this by demonstrating a level of trust in his whole squad. By all accounts, he plans and plots his team selections months in advance, but has a way of keeping players who aren't in the team happy.

When United won the treble in '99, they had 4 top strikers in Andy Cole, Dwight Yorke, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Teddy Sheringham. That's not too dissimilar to this season. Andy Cole had a deadly finish on him, great composure and ability to lead the line, like van Persie. Dwight Yorke brought a great energy and could operate well in the space in front of the defence, like Rooney. Hernandez, like Solskjaer, is a great supersub with lightening pace and is an ideal poacher. Sheringham and Welbeck have brought slightly differing traits to the United teams.

For me, the key to United winning the treble in '99, was Ferguson's ability to keep all 4 strikers on their toes and fully motivated. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has spoken of the way he helped his confidence build. For instance, when United were drawing 1-1 at home to Spurs on the last day of the 98/99 season, they needed a win to win the title. Apparently Ferguson said: "it's okay, if we need a goal with 10 minutes to go, I'll just put Ole on". He wasn't needed in the end as United won 2-1, but Solskjaer has said that those words made him grow and simply feel big. If players walk onto the pitch with that kind of empowering motivator and man manager behind them, I'm not surprised United have won as much as they have in the last 20 years.

Blues v Watford preview

Ciao! Italian owners, an Italian manager, a classic Italian counter-attacking 5-3-2 formation, on Saturday we play a Watford team in a new-look Italian style. In fact, to say we’re playing Watford would be slightly misleading. We’re essentially playing the Udinese Calcio B team, because no less than 7 of Watford’s current playing staff have arrived on loan from the Italian club, who the new Watford owners also have control of. The imports have certainly worked for the Hornet’s though, because with the team just 3pts off the automatic promotion places, Premier League football at Vicarage Road next season seems a genuine possibility, so I think we may have our work cut out in this one.

My starting XI

At the time of writing, we’ve not got any new injury troubles to worry about, although I’m anxious to the see the return of ex-Man United trainees Jonathan Spector and Ravel Morrison to midfield. I think they’ll give us a boost, but thankfully in the last few games we’ve managed well enough without them.

Jack Butland is certainly showing no lack of desire to play for the club. After his arranged transfer to Stoke, to his credit, he’s put in 3 committed performances in a row, in all of which he has pulled off some fantastic saves. I’m sure Clark will stick with Butland and a back four of Caddis, Davies, Caldwell and Robinson. I do think the defence is gradually becoming more organised, and although I was calling for Caldwell’s removal a few weeks ago, maybe Clark keeping the same defence in place has played a part in it becoming more of a unit.

Wade Elliott seems to be flourishing in his new role in central midfield. Although it wasn’t necessarily a move I would have taken, I reckon Clark did the right thing moving him inside from the left. Elliott has a lot of experience to offer at the heart of this team, and the switch allows us to field another wide man, which is an area of the squad that we are strong in.

What I would be inclined to do though, is field a couple of midfielders alongside him that will provide more of a physical presence, and use a 4-5-1. I know it seems like a negative, McLeish-esque tactic to employ, but Watford have a lot of pace and movement in their team, they can be very effective when they are given time and space. My strategy would be to play Gomis and Reilly with Elliott, and cram the midfield. Those two will provide us with some tenacity, and I’d instruct them to always lay the ball off for Elliott, who can use his range of vision and passing ability to spray balls to the wing for Burke and Hall, to cause Watford some damage out wide.

I say this because one of the disadvantages of Zola’s 5-3-2 wingback system, is that they only have one wide man on each side, who is forced to do all of the running. I reckon we can exploit that. They’ll have three central midfielders, so if we can match them man for man in the centre of the park and deny them the space, and then get the ball to the wide areas, then we may see some joy. My thinking is that Burke and Hall/Redmond if he comes on, would need only beat one man, who may be tired from running up and down the pitch all afternoon, to have an unchallenged cross into the area. Also, if Caddis keeps making his attacking runs forward, which he is doing well at the moment, we may be able to manoeuvre a 2-on-1 situation down the right. In short, the plan has to be to try and isolate their wingbacks, in my opinion.

Marlon King would be the obvious choice to lead the line, because he holds the ball up quite well and provides a potent goal threat. If we were losing with 25 minutes to go, my strategy would be to take off Reilly and put on Nikola Zigic, who has become the new Geoff Horsefield or Kevin Phillips for us- a supersub you can always rely on for a goal. Because Watford’s right wingback, Marco Cassetti is 35, he could struggle against Redmond’s pace as a fresh substitute. I’d definitely want to stick Redmond on and try to give him as many one-on-one situations down the left against Cassetti as possible, because I’d always fancy him to beat his man for speed.

A summary of Watford’s season

Although there may be flaws in Zola’s system that we can potentially exploit, thus far it has certainly proved an effective one. After a midtable season in their last campaign under Sean Dyche, the Hornets are now up 3^rd in the Championship and are on a great run of form, having won 6 of their last 8 league games.

What we should also be wary of, is that Watford have by far the best ‘goals for’ record in the league when playing away from home. They hit teams on the counter attack with a frenetic pace and energy, and they are always looking for opportunities to feed poacher Matej Vydra, who provides their main goal threat. The Czech Republican, amongst those on loan at Watford from Udinese, has already scored a fantastic 19 goals from 27 league games this season. He’s one to watch out for.

My prediction

I think I’m going to go for a fairly high-scoring draw here. Vydra seems to score in more matches than he fails to at the moment, so although we’re beginning to look more resolute at the back, I would fear for Caldwell against his pace. However, I think the fact that Watford are playing with wingbacks will work in our favour, because we have some quality players out wide, who I could see flourishing in the one-on-one situations. Watford probably need the points more in their automatic promotion race, but with the game at St Andrews, I think it’s within our capability to hold them to a draw. I’ll say 2-2. Arrivederci.

Premiership predictions- 09/02/13

Hello scorers, hope you've all had a good week. I reckon this weekend will be an interesting one, I'm in fact tipping none of the top six teams to win. Before I get into the games, I'd like to mention Jamie Carragher, who has had a fantastic career with Liverpool. People pass on a lot of credit to players like Scholes and Giggs at Man United, but Carragher has been almost an ever-present in the Liverpool defence since he broke into the first team, and has had a very successful 23 year career as a one club man. I think he'll make an excellent pundit or coach. Respect.

Tottenham v Newcastle

With Jermain Defoe out for 3 weeks, I think Tottenham may struggle because he's been their main goal threat. If Adebayor, who's out of form at the moment, becomes unavailable then they don't have a recognised striker. Therefore, I'm backing Newcastle to snatch a point here because their new French signings have evidently rejuvenised them, with back-to-back wins since their arrival, after a slightly concerning run of form. The Toon have the ability  to get a result here, 1-1.

Chelsea v Wigan

For me, the shock is on the cards here. Chelsea are without a win in 4, the fans are calling for Rafa's head and there have been rumours about the return of Mourinho to Stamford Bridge. This won't help Chelsea in their preparation for this match, as they play a Wigan team who have  the ability to go out and play the top teams with no fear. I think this will be the shock result of the weekend, 0-2 Wigan.

Norwich v Fulham

A draw was the first result that came to my mind for this game. Norwich have steadied the ship a bit after some bad results getting respectable draws against Tottenham and QPR, whereas Fulham have lost 3 of their last 4. Having said that, the three defeats were against the Manchester clubs and they did beat West Ham a couple of weeks ago to keep themselves fairly adrift of the relegation battle. On the same points tally, neither side can quite afford to lose this if they want a comfortable enough run-in, so they both may approach this game with some trepidation, resulting in a goalless draw.

Stoke v Reading

Stoke showed vague signs of becoming tough to beat again, by losing just to the odd goal at the Emirates, but I don't think they'll keep a clean sheet here. Reading are in very good form at the moment and continued their habit of scoring late goals against Sunderland. I now think their self-belief, and of course Adam Le Fondre's goals, could keep them them up. I'll go for a draw here, 1-1.

Sunderland v Arsenal

Sunderland's defensive tactic is often to sit back, soak up the pressure and occassionally hit teams on the counter attack. I wonder if this may prove quite successful against Arsenal, who play with a reluctance to find the penetrating pass early, and I'm just not sure whether the Gunners will find a way through. I would expect them have a lot of possession, but after losing late at Reading I foresee an organised defensive display from Sunderland, so I'll go for goalless.

Swansea v QPR

It's interesting that QPR are unbeaten in 5 league games in 2012, having played the likes of Chelsea, Tottenham and Man City, but they've only actually won 1 of those. I do predict that at some point, these draws will turn into either wins or defeats, because draws aren't enough for them, so they'll have to start attacking teams soon. Their main problem is that Loic Remy is injured and Bobby Zamora has always got a knock, I don't think they'll score enough goals to stay up. 3-0.

Southampton v Man City

Pochettino must be wondering how he hasn't got his first win yet, and I think he can consider himself unfortunate. They played very well in his first game against Everton, were seconds away from beating Wigan and Alex Ferguson said they were the best team to come to Old Trafford! To motivate his team so well in the circumstances shows great character from the man, so I've got a feeling they can get a result out of Man City. I think the title race is over, and City will miss Kompany at the back, so controversially I'm going to back Pochettino to get that elusive first win, by beating the champions 2-1.

Aston Villa v West Ham

I'm surprised that this game is being played on a Sunday, because I don't think it'll be up to much. If I was a Villa fan - thank god I'm not but if I was - I would be very worried about West Ham's ability from set pieces. Villa still have little experience in defence, and West Ham are a very strong physical team. It will be a daunting situation for Villa's young guns to be fighting for a potentially future-defining three points, with the fans on their backs and up against the physical presence of a team like West Ham. I just don't think they'll cope with the pressure, so 0-1, and with the transfer window closed, you would ask: what now for Villa?

Man Utd v Everton

United often seem to have a big enough squad to not allow forthcoming/recently played Champions League matches to become a distraction, but I do think it'll play on their mind in this case. I think van Persie and at least one of Ferdinand or Vidic will be rested, the players may be subconsciously be thinking about the Madrid match. Also, if Phil Jones plays on the right side of midfield, which would be crucial in their attempts to block Everton's strong left side of Baines and Pienaar, he won't be at his full fitness having developed shingles recently. The opportunity is there for Everton to go and pick up a result. 2-2.

Liverpool v West Brom

I can only see a pretty big win for Liverpool here. They've redeemed themselves from losing at Oldham in the cup by coming close to beating Arsenal and Man City.  On the other hand, West Brom's seemingly decomposing defence won't be able to handle Suarez and Sturridge's pace and level of understanding. I'll go 3-0 the Reds.

Blues 2-1 Forest: Burke for good

A nice 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest and of course, Blues reject Alex McLeish takes us to 6 points above the relegation zone, and I think we can all breathe a little more safely now. The game had a touch of irony about it, as it was Chris Burke, who Alex McLeish was hoping to sign for Forest on deadline day, who scored both of our goals. I'm relieved that we've managed to keep the likes of Curtis Davies and Marlon King, who have been key for us this season, so unless we're forced into administration I now feel increasingly confident that we can avoid a second relegation in two years, after that win.

As was to be expected, when McLeish walked through the tunnel towards the dugout, he was greated by a great chorus of boos. Many Blues fans now hate him for leaving Birmingham when we were relegated to go to Aston Villa, in a move that was apparently planned months in advance. After the boos, the fans broke into: 'giner tw*t, my lord, ginger tw*t' which I thought was a bit unnecessary. It's a slightly self-refuting argument when you focus on the fact that he's ginger, rather than what he actually did. They certainly weren't calling him a 'ginger tw*t' when we were 9th in the Premiership or when we'd won the Carling Cup, so it seems a strange thing to have a go at him for.

One of the things that pleased me about the game, is that it's evidence of us becoming more of a team unit. For a lot of the season until now, the defence and midfield have been doing well enough individually, but hadn't yet become a well co-ordinated and organised team. I was convinced though, that the only way to change that would be to have a little bit of patience, rather than join the 'Clark out' brigade. 

Today, we saw encouraging signs of this improving. Caldwell and Davies intuitively knew when  their partner would go forward and challenge for a header, they would stay back and vice-versa. Caddis and Robinson did have quiet games but did their bit to make sure Forest had little joy down the flanks, and Wade Elliott's experience was invaluable in our attempts to win the midfield battle, which I felt we generally did. The team are beginning to develop a level of mutual understanding, an underrated component of a successful team in my opinion, and that's something to build on for the rest of the campaign.

Lee Clark reverted to a 4-4-2 formation, enabling him to field Wes Thomas alongside Marlon King, which is a change from the 4-2-3-1 he tends to opt for. With Burke and Hall employed as out and out wingers, it was quite an attacking line-up, but it seemed to do the trick.

We had a lot of possession in the opening quarter of an hour, Wade Elliott stamped his authority on the game by use of his tackling and dictating tempo, which played a big part in this, but we couldn't create any clear-cut chances. Rob Hall then made his biggest contribution of the match when his free-kick was headed goalwards by Curtis Davies, but Darlow pushed it away. Although Hall didn't have a great afternoon, the quality he provides from set pieces alone has made him worthy of his wages.

Chris Burke seemed to provide a much bigger threat on the right than Hall did on the left though. For starters, he slipped through a neat through ball for Marlon King. Unfortunately our 14-goal striker  was unable to add to his tally, uncharacteristically dragging his shot wide.

Towards the end of the first half, the anti-McLeish songs grew louder and this seemed to help create an intimidating atmosphere for Forest to play in. Jack Butland made a fine save from Billy Sharp's header, before Blues went down the other end to score. Chris Burke let rip from about halfway inside the Forest half. It was a rocket of a volley, with his weaker left foot (to boot), that crashed in off the underside of the crossbar to give Blues a lead at the interval. I thought it was just about deserved, because we had had a fair amount of possession.

We were able to build on this in the early stages of the second half, and were unlucky not to get a second goal in that time. With Reilly on for Gomis and Redmond later replacing the limping Hall, Blues attacked with a real purpose. Wes Thomas displayed the energetic qualities he can bring to this team by fashioning a 1 on 1 chance all by himself, nicking the ball from Danny Collins's toe and going on a long, speedy run. Unfortunately, when the chance presented itself to him, he lacked that bit of composure to get the goal.

But I have to say, I don't mind that. The financial situation at the club means we simply can't afford, or attract, the skillful prima donnas of this world, so it's better to try and get hardworking, honest players in who will create a real work ethic within the squad. It was clearly very much a hand-to-mouth transfer, seeing as we have him on loan from a club in a lower division than us, but I don't mind as long as he's totally committed to the cause. 

Butland, who had an excellent afternoon in goal in spite of his agreed transfer to Stoke, made a couple more great saves. He saved from Chris Cohen and was also equal to Henri Lansbury's effort at the near post to preserve our lead. At that point, I did sense we needed a second goal to kill the game off as Forest applied more and more pressure, because we were without a clean sheet in 15 games. One goal never seems to be quite enough with us at the moment.

Lee Clark sent on Zigic, which is usually a move made in search of a goal, but this time it looked to have had a slightly different implication. The aim was for him to help us simply hold onto the ball and provide a starting point for the midfield, in what looked to be partly a time wasting tactic.

Redmond then had a 1 on 1 opportunity, not dissimilar to Thomas's, only from him cutting inside from the left. He showed some electrifying pace to get past the defence, who were playing with quite a high defensive line as part of their quest for the second goal, but Redmond like Thomas, lacked that bit of composure when it mattered most.

However, we did get the second goal with 10 minutes to play, and Redmond atoned for that miss. It was his pace that made the second, as he went on a mazy run down the left wing before    coming inside and cutting a pass back across goal for Burke to tap in. After that goal, came a range of taunting songs for McLeish, including: 'Alex, what's the score?' before finally a rousing rendition of 'Keep Right On'.

It would have been the perfect game for us, had it not been for the late penalty to Forest. Having seen it on the football league show, I thought the penalty was harsh, awarded for an apparent push by Curtis Davies on Billy Sharp. Sharp converted though, which left us without a clean sheet in 16 games now, but on the whole it was an important 3 points for us, to cap off a pretty good week.

Aside from my satisfaction at seeing the likes of Redmond, Davies, Butland, King and Burke still in a Birmingham City shirt, it's the first time we've had back-to-back wins all season, as we've managed to build on that impressive win at Burnley. Hopefully we can now put an unbeaten run together and climb into the top half of the table, to lighten up what's so far been a very difficult season for us.

Player ratings:

Butland- would've kept a clean sheet had it not been for a wrongly awarded penalty, he made some fabulous saves that preserved the lead for us at times. 8

Caddis- made the occassional good attacking run, but other than that he was fairly quiet and did his defensive job. Blocked Forest's plans down the left quite well. 7

Davies- could have scored in the first half from Hall's free kick, and won a lot of aerial headers against Billy Sharp. Can't mark him down for the penalty when Sharp clearly dived. 7

Caldwell- seemed to press higher up the pitch than I expected to considering his lack of pace, but he won a lot of challenges and made it difficult for Forest. 7

Robinson- like Caddis, don't think I saw much of him but that's probably a good thing for a defender! Without making too many tackles, he held his position well. 6

Elliott- I was impressed with Elliott. Don't think I've seen him play in the centre too many times but the experience he provided us with was useful. He always grafted to help us win the ball back, he organised the midfield and sprayed the ball out wide nicely.

Gomis- because Elliott's skills are more linked with his football brain, we needed a physical presence in the midfield alongside him and Gomis did that job well. Provided some support, was quiet but effective. 7/10

*BURKE- aside from his 2 goals, Burke looked back to his form under Hughton when he could beat a player with ease. He was exciting to watch and took his 2nd goal very well. My man of the match. 9/10

Hall- the play wasn't down the left too much so I didn't see a lot of him, the only contribution I remember him making was the free-kick for Davies's header. Must have had a bit of a knock as well, as he came off in the second half. 4/10

King- he lead the line and held the ball up quite well, but he missed a 1 on 1 chance in the first half. 6/10

Thomas- from the 65-odd minutes I've seen of him, he looks like a hardworking, pacy forward which will be key to fashioning chances for himself. However, he seems to lack that bit of quality, evidence by the 1 on 1 chance he missed in the second half. 6/10

Subs:

Reilly- came on for Gomis with half an hour to go and like many players, I didn't see much of him. Defending a 2-goal lead the aim is always going to be to keep things tight, Reilly did that well enough I thought. 6/10

Redmond- he made up for missing his 1 on 1 by making Burke's second all by himself. The pace he added was fantastic. 7/10

Zigic- coming on for Thomas, he fulfilled his duties: held the ball up, wore the clock down, defended from the front. Contributed to us keeping the 2 goal lead for so long.

Blues v Forest match preview

So, it’s the eagerly-awaited return of Mr McLeish (rumours last night suggested he had resigned, apparently not) to St Andrews as we play host to a Nottingham Forest side struggling for form at the minute. Though I can understand why a lot of Blues fans are angry with McLeish for leaving us to go to Villa, my desire for a win is purely based on the need for 3 points rather than personal revenge. I’m sure many people will disagree with me, but my own opinion is that he wasn’t that good a manager for us anyway, he had us playing boring football and what happened is in the past, so in a sense I think we should rise above him.

A look at the squad

Jack Butland completed a £4 million transfer to Stoke, although he remains at Blues on loan until the end of the season. Whilst I think that’s a respectable deal for us (if the money we receive goes back into the club, that is) I would have liked to have got it done earlier. It frustrates me how long it takes for transfers to go through, because we badly need to improve the squad and get a couple of players in on loan. Wes Thomas could be in the squad after he joined on loan from Bournemouth.

We’ve kept hold of Curtis Davies which I’m very relieved about. If we lost him at the centre of the defence I would really fear for us to be honest, because Caldwell and Pablo both lack a physical presence. Chris Burke will be playing on Saturday, thankfully for us, because a bid thought to be in the region of £500K from Forest was turned down by Blues and McLeish refused to go any higher.

I'm glad the return of Mullins to the squad hasn’t marked the end of the Gomis-Reilly partnership, because with Spector out, that’s our best midfield duo. In matches I’ve seen them play together, such as the first half at Huddersfield (before Reilly went off in that match) we’re rarely outrun in the centre of the park. That’s not really the case with Mullins. I’m hoping the knock Rob Hall picked up at Burnley last week wasn’t a telling one, because he’s been vital for us in his loan spell, contributing a very useful ability from set pieces.

It was Zigic who made the impact again last week. He got the flick-on for King to score the winner, and I do think his threat is increased when he comes off the substitutes bench. Over the last couple of months or so when Marlon King has been injured, the opposition defence has had to play against the pace of players like Redmond and Morrison for 70 minutes. It means that when Zigic comes on, they’re already quite tired and don’t have the energy to compete for those direct, high balls, which Zigic therefore has an easy time getting. It can seem like a dubious decision from Clark not to start with a recognised striker in games when Zigic is fully fit and available, but I do believe there has been a strong enough dose of method in his apparent madness.

A bit about Forest

It seems strange to think that little over 30 years ago, Nottingham Forest were twice Champions of Europe, under the guidance of the great man Brian Clough. I think it’s fair to say that since then, they’ve gone backwards in terms of division and in quality of manager!

Interestingly, when it was founded, the club’s traditional colours were chosen to be ‘Garibaldi Red’- that’s just ‘red’ to you and me. It was actually a mark of respect for Giuseppe Garibaldi, the leader of the Italian freedom fighters who were popular in England at the time. They always wore red shirts.

Nowadays, Forest are hitting a bit of a lull in form, and need to step things up again quickly if they want to make a push for the play-offs. Sean O’Driscoll was very strangely sacked by the new board after they beat Leeds 4-2 and went within a point off the play-off places, but Alex McLeish has won just 1 of his opening 6 games in charge. They are now 6pts away from the play-offs, having played a game more than a couple of teams above them, and their play-off ambitions took big setback last week when they lost 3-0 at home to Watford.

My prediction

I’ve got a good feeling about the game. Although I’m not particularly inspired by the idea of giving McLeish a hostile reception – I would rather just forget about him really – I think it may create an intimidating atmosphere, which our young players can thrive in. There’s got to be a clean sheet around the corner somewhere, we’ve gone 16 games without one, so by the logic of a Birmingham City fan we're due a clean sheet. I think goals from Marlon King and Nikola Zigic will fire us to a 2-0 win.

Premiership predictions- 01/02/13

Hello folks, unfortunately no-one has sent me their predictions this week, but I thought I'd have a crack at the games anyway, just for the hell of it. Let's see what we got...

QPR v Norwich

What Harry Redknapp has done at QPR is ludicrous, because he's shown little consideration for the long-term financial wellbeing of his club, given that they are currently bottom. Even if QPR can stay up, Harry will be regarded as a hero and then leave, but the Samba deal alone cost them £30 million in total, I'd be surprised if Fernandes has that kind of money. It means it's win or bust for them on Saturday, but their defence is improving and Norwich don't score many, so I'll say they can nick a 1-0 win. Whether it'll be enough to eventually save the club, remains to be seen.

Arsenal v Stoke

If this game was being played at the Britannia it would be harder for me to call, but it's a bigger pitch at the Emirates, that will suit Arsenal's brains more than Stoke's brawn. Stoke just don't win games on the road, in the end they were lucky to get a point against Wigan the other night and I'd fancy the Gunners to find their way through eventually. 2-0.

Everton v Aston Villa

I've given Villa the benefit of the doubt in recent weeks, but now I think they're in masses of trouble. I still think that if Vlaar can get back to his old self and if Lambert can find a way to get Benteke and Bent playing together, then they may have a chance. I know Lambert doesn't like egos such as Bent but in a relegation battle, you have to gamble with players in your team who can score goals- now is the time to be pragmatic, not picky. I really want to see Jelavic back in amongst the goals again for Everton, because he's a fantastic poacher when in form but he's gone off the boil a little lately, Anichebe has played more games. This is a good opportunity for him to break his scoring duck, because with no experience added to it in January, this Villa defence looks extremely vulnerable at the moment and I'm struggling to see that changing. 2-0.

Newcastle v Chelsea

I'm tipping Newcastle to win this. Their new French connections will rejuvenate the side, and Moussa Sissoko is a very energetic midfielder which is exactly what Newcastle need. Energetic is the last word I'd use to describe Chelsea at the moment, because they're just coming to the end of a very congested fixture schedule. They threw away 2 points at Reading on Wednesday, but I think some credit needs to go to Benitez for keeping their results on track and keeping them 3rd in pretty tough circumstances, with the discontent of the Chelsea supporters. Controversially, 1-0 Newcastle.

Reading v Sunderland

I may have to hold my hands up with Reading. In the first few weeks I thought they'd stay up, over Christmas time I had them down as dead and buried but remarkably, they're now out of the relegation zone on goal difference. And that's with some interesting home games coming up. My opinion on them will probably change at some point, and they'll inevitably fall in and out of the drop-zone between now and the end of the season, but at the moment their team spirit leads me to think they'll stay up. Sunderland have had a few good results and are safe now as far as I'm concerned, so I think this is a good opportunity for Reading to get a win and lengthen their terrific run of winter form. 2-0.

West Ham v Swansea

I've spent a long time thinking about this one, because these are two teams who play different styles of football and I'm unsure as to how they'll interact. Swansea are playing with a lot of confidence and they had no problems against Stoke (who play in a similarly physical style to West Ham) would they be able to out-pass the Hammers? But then I also think that the Hammers do need the win more than Swansea, they are at home, so maybe they can grind out a result. The conclusion I've come to is a goalless draw, because Carlton Cole provides little attacking threat, but West Ham are normally quite hard to break down, and both teams play with effectively 5 in the middle, so there may not be too many chances.

Wigan v Southampton

Despite only picking up 1 point from a possible 6, that's a decent start for Pochettino, especially playing against Everton and United- in both games they put in encouraging performances. I hope the fans get behind him now. Wigan battled back for a point at Stoke, but I've got a feeling they'll really struggle in this game. They have an ever-diminishing squad and will be without key man Arouna Kone, who's at the African Cup of nations. I expect Southampton will attack and press high up, I'm not sure whether Wigan's 3-man defence will cope with that. 0-2.

Fulham v Man Utd

Fulham got an important win over West Ham the other night, but I don't give them a chance against United. Their defence is suspect to say the least, although they have just recruited Urby Emmanuelson on loan from Milan, but I just don't think that'll be enough. United's defence isn't perfect and Berbatov creates a lot, which suggests Fulham could get on the scoresheet, but I think Man U will score a couple of goals in the first half and end up controlling the match. If so, that may restrict the time Berbatov will have on the ball, so it could be an easy evening for United. 0-3.

West Brom v Tottenham

With West Brom already in quite poor form, all of the controversy surrounding Odemwingie will merely be a catalyst for Tottenham's win, rather than a decider of it. I think with a player of Bale's calibre in their side, Spurs can always score goals and I can see the Welsh wizard picking West Brom apart on Sunday. I'm going as far as 0-4.

Man City v Liverpool

The absence of Kompany will be a very big blow for City. Without him, I could really see them struggling to cope with this nicely developing Sturridge-Suarez partnership, because Nastasic doesn't have enough experience in my opinion. Then again, Liverpool haven't got the greatest of defences and Aguero-Tevez is at least as an effective a partnership, so I could foresee a reasonably entertaining game. 2-2.