Friday 26 April 2013

Gabriel's Grand Weekend Preview: for 27/28 April

Premiership

Man City vs. West Ham
Both these team's seasons are decided now. City have officially lost the title, West Ham are already in the enviable position of 10th with 42 points, thanks to a fine run of form. Although they're not so good away from home, I don't think the Hammers will roll over here, because they are a solid team, as recent games have proven. Man City to scrape the win. 1-0.

Everton vs. Fulham
In terms of what there is to play for, this fixture hasn't got a dissimilar setup. Everton, like Man City, have missed out on a prize at the top, in their case that final Champions League spot. And Fulham, like West Ham, are definitely safe, although they've only taken a point from 4 games. It's Fulham's poor run of results that makes me think this'll be a more comfortable win for Everton than the West Ham game will be for Man City. 2-0.

Southampton vs. West Brom
Based on form and home advantage, I've got to go for a Southampton win. They've picked up 11 points from 5 games which is fantastic, and they probably deserved to win at Swansea last week. 2 points from 4 games, West Brom look to be finishing this season on the beach a little bit, and I reckon Southampton have it well within them to secure victory. 2-0.

Stoke vs. Norwich
Stoke got a crucial win at QPR last week, and it's slightly strange to think that if they win this they could go level on points with Fulham. They looked in some serious trouble when they lost at home to Aston Villa, but they seem to have given themselves to breathing space. That's what I love about following relegation battles towards the end of the season - back-to-back wins change everything. Norwich got their crucial win against Reading, which I think will see them safe now, but they've got a very poor away record, so I'll go with Stoke. 1-0.

Wigan vs. Tottenham
The obvious prediction is to go with Tottenham after beating Man City, but it would be such classic Wigan to win this. Away performances from them, against City and West Ham recently, have been good, yet they lost both games. Does that indicate the belief within the squad is still there, or that they lack a winning mentality to pinch results? I have got a strong feeling the Latics will get a result from this game, but it'd be too much to say they'll get a win, so I'll go with a draw. 2-2.

Newcastle vs. Liverpool
I'm not going to have as much a go at Suarez as some will for his bite on Ivanovic, because it came across to me as more idiotic than vicious. I simply don't understand what he was thinking, or what he was planning to achieve by biting another players' arm?! Makes no sense. I reckon this will affect Liverpool, not just from a goalscoring point of view but mentally, so I think Newcastle will win to put an end to their relegation fears. 1-0.

Reading vs. QPR
With both teams essentially relegated, rarely can a game be approached with such apathy. I can see a very flat Madjeski stadium, and I just can't see there being any goals. I don't know why this'll be on TV because even thinking about the prospect of the game is a little bit depressing, I'd feel for the fans who have to witness it, so I'll move on. 0-0.

Chelsea vs. Swansea
With just 2 points from 5 games, and one win since their Carling Cup victory, Swansea's season is fading slightly, perhaps understandably so. Remarkably, this will be Chelsea's 9th fixture in April, yet despite the FA Cup and Europa League distractions, they've still picked up 7pts from 3 games in the Premiership, and some credit needs to go to Benitez for that. Despite the heavy fixture list, I'll back Chelsea to continue to build momentum by winning this game. 2-0.

Arsenal vs. Man Utd
Wenger was right to get his players to form a guard of honour, and I reckon that might give Arsenal the kick up the backside they need to put in a strong performance. Man Utd have already won the title, but I'd fancy them in this game a lot more if they hadn't, because I'm not sure whether the motivation will be there in the United camp. I reckon Arsenal will come out fighting in this one, and I'll say they'll nick it 1-0.

Aston Villa vs. Sunderland
In a similar way to Stoke, Sunderland were in massive trouble when Di Canio took over, but back-to-back wins and the picture has changed completely! Villa are more in the thick of the relegation battle than Sunderland, if Wigan did win a game in hand, Villa would go into the drop zone on goal difference. I think it'll be a tight game, with a draw being the most likely outcome. 1-1.

Championship

Leicester vs. Watford
Watford need to win this to have a shot at automatic promotion, but with Bolton travelling to champions Cardiff tommorrow, Leicester have a big opportunity to increase their play-off claims this weekend. A draw won't be good enough for either side, so I can see an entertaining match here, that could go either way. 2-3.

Barnsley vs. Hull
You could say this will depend on what happens on Friday night with Watford, but the objective for Hull shouldn't change. They need a win to go up, and I don't think it'll do them any favours to be dwelling on the Watford game too much the night before. I know that if Watford draw, Hull will only need a draw but the trouble with that is that if Watford win, that could creep into their minds a bit. It's better to concentrate on your own game. Barnsley are right in the mix at the bottom, and could be effectively relegated on Saturday night with a much worse goal difference than Peterborough and Wolves. I think they might need to hope for favours from elsewhere to keep themselves in with a shout of staying up. 0-2.

Blackburn vs. Crystal Palace
3 wins from 4 games should keep Blackburn up now, and they play a Palace side who are severley lacking the momentum normally needed to go into a play-off contest, as they're without a win in 7. Despite the sizeable distance between them in the table, Blackburn's home record is actually a lot better than Palace's away record, so I'd back the Rovers for this. 2-1.

Blackpool vs. Derby
Blackpool have the opportunity to put the humiliation from fellow-seasiders Brighton last weekend, by making sure of survival this. I think they'll do that, because only 2 teams have won less away games than Derby, and the Rams have little to play for. I'll say Ince's side will sneak the win, because up until that thrashing they were in fact looking quite solid defensively. 1-0.

Bristol City vs. Huddersfield
The Robins are relegated now but credit to them for showing some mental strength to get a point at Hull last Friday, so they're not going down quietly. With Wolves and Peterborough having winnable home games, Huddersfield can't afford to lose this and get dragged into the relegation battle. Bristol City will want to put in a spirited performance for their last home game of the season, so I think it'll be a draw. 2-2.

Cardiff vs. Bolton
It's very common for a team, once crowned champions, to take their foot off the gas a little bit and I wonder if that might happen with Cardiff. Bolton will be fighting hard for the win in their battle for a play-off spot, so I think they might turn Cardiff over. 1-2.

Ipswich vs. Birmingham
We're both safe, so I think the game will have a relaxed, serene feel to it. Both teams will be able to experiment and play without the pressure of a desperate need for points. We're both in decent form, I think a draw is probably about right. 1-1.

Leeds vs. Brighton
Brighton are limbering up very nicely for their play-off tie - which they can secure with a win against Leeds - by thrashing Blackpool. That result will have been a big confidence booster for them, and although Leeds have got a pretty good home form, they've also got nothing to play for so I can see a comfortable Brighton win. 0-2.

Middlesbrough vs. Charlton
Charlton are now several places above Middlesbrough, which you'd have never believed at the end of December, when the Addicks were 18th in the table and Borough were 3rd! It's been a fantastic second half for Charlton, but equally a dreadful capitulation from Middlesbrough. I think the morale will be a lot higher in the Charlton camp, and statistics show that they do better away from home, so I reckon they'll win this. 0-2.

Millwall vs. Nottm Forest
All that talk about the difference Billy Davies has made to Forest, when they won 6 games on the trot, has evaporated as they've now gone 6 games without a win. That said, they're only 2 points away from the play-offs, so victory at Millwall would be important for them. The Lions are only 4pts away from the drop, they can't feel comfortable yet, so I'm thinking a draw. 1-1.

Wolves vs. Burnley
Burnley, like Millwall, are just 4pts away from the relegation zone, but have a considerably better goal difference which will help. It's do or die for Wolves, and with them in the relegation zone going into the match, it'll be a very nervy game for them. Wolves simply have to win, but I wonder if the pressure will be too much for them. I fancy Burnley to get a point. 1-1.

Peterborough vs. Sheff Wed
Peterborough are locked on points with Wolves, and have to win this. It'll be a big pressure game, and not dissimilar to with the promotion race, it might not help Peterborough having Wolves playing whilst the Posh are warming up! I very much want them to stay up, partly because I'm an admirer of their transfer policy (that and I hate Wolves!), but whether their very young team can deal with the pressure, I would doubt. 1-1.

Thursday 11 April 2013

Gabriel's Grand Weekend Preview: for 13/14 April

Premiership

Arsenal vs. Norwich
Arsenal need the points more, are at home, and are simply the better team. They've got two games at the Emirates to play before either Spurs or Chelsea kick a ball, so this is the perfect opportunity for them to really hone in on that 4th spot to put pressure on their London rivals. With three matches against relegation clubs coming up, this isn't the game Norwich are going to secure survival on. 3-0.

Aston Villa vs. Fulham
Villa's young guns are starting to flourish just at the right time. They put in a very strong performance against Stoke, which should give them the confidence to put forward a late surge to secure safety. I reluctantly think they'll do that by beating Fulham, who I predict will be 'on the beach'. 2-0.

Everton vs. QPR
This will be such a difficult game, mentally, for QPR. The late Wigan equalizer last week means they have an ever-refuting chance of staying in the Premiership, which in turn means the club will be in tatters financially. I reckon the players will be so preoccupied with what will happen for them individually in the summer, in terms of whether they'll still be there, that they won't have the mentality to compete against a team like Everton. 4-0.

Reading vs. Liverpool
And the same could perhaps be said for Reading. Liverpool should have beaten West Ham last week, but I just can't see Reading - with the worst defensive record - keeping Suarez quiet. Adkins is a decent player motivator so I don't think the Royals will crumble entirely, but they just won't be strong enough in my view. 0-2.

Southampton vs. West Ham
I think it'll be a bore draw, because for either team to have the slimest chance of getting dragged into a late relegation battle, they'd obviously need to lose this. Both teams will probably settle for a point, West Ham have a good defensive record - I reckon their strength in midfield will be able to deal with Pochettino's high pressing game - so I think this might be goalless.

Newcastle vs. Sunderland
The stakes simply couldn't be higher for Sunderland. After their second-half defeat against Chelsea, the Sunderland board's controversial decision to appoint di Canio remains very much in the balance. My gut tells me that this sinking feeling Sunderland seem to be getting - without a win since mid-January - might just continue. I'm not taking this prediction lightly because it could well go either way, but I think Newcastle will put the Black Cats further in trouble. 2-0.

Stoke vs. Man Utd

The Manchester Derby on Monday night was a bit of a damp squib given the distance by which United were, and are still, ahead. Of course they'll have been disappointed to lose, but I think they'll bounce back and clinch the title in the next few weeks now. Stoke are still slipping quite dangerously, and after being mid-table for so long, they'll need to mentally adjust to get the results in their three massive games after this. 0-3.

Championship

Leicester vs. Birmingham
Decided not to go up, will watch this on TV instead. Having been in automatics for so much of the season, Leicester are without a win in 8, and desperately need a win. Whilst they'll have a lot of pressure on them going into the game, we'll have none on ourselves. We've got nothing to play for, are away from home, and I wonder if this might just work in our favour. We can be effective on the counter attack, which will be key, so I actually think we might win. 0-1.


Leeds vs. Sheff Wed
Leeds have lost their last 4, and if they're not careful, could be drawn into an ever-condensing Championship relegation battle. To breathe safely, they would need to win against a Sheffield Wednesday team who are 2pts below them, but have strung an impressive 7 points from their last 3 games. I'm backing Wednesday, as the form team, to do the damage and leave Leeds faultering somewhat. 0-1.

Barnsley vs. Charlton
Both teams have had similarly positive results recently. Barnsley have won their last 2 home games and held Crystal Palace away to a goalless draw, whilst Charlton have done the same, and they held Brighton to goalless at the AMEX. It'll be a close game, with a draw being the most likely outcome. 1-1.

Blackburn vs. Derby
Blackburn are in freefall. They've gone 10 games without a league win and all of a sudden, they find themselves in the bottom three for the first time, so the pressure on them will be massive. I think playing at home will work against them in this game, the fans could really get on their back if they start poorly. There is absolutely no pressure on Derby, who have nothing to play for, are away from home and can approach the game in a relaxed way. Controversially, I predict this will give the Rams a massive advantage, they'll avenge the 3-0 FA Cup defeat to Blackburn back in January. 0-3.

Blackpool vs. Burnley
Getting a point at in-form Forest was a terrific result for the Tangerines, although their relegation fears aren't over yet, so I reckon they'll go into this game with the perfect level of motivation. Burnley have picked up some decent results lately, yet their only win in their last 6 was at home to Bristol City, who are bottom, so I'll back Blackpool with home advantage. 2-1.

Bristol City vs. Bolton
It's probably a good thing that Sean O'Driscoll never looks at the table! Bottom of the league, 1 point from their last 4 and 8 adrift of safety, it doesn't look too rosy for the Robins. In addition, they've picked completely the wrong time to play Bolton who, at this late stage, are finally showing what they're squad is capable of on a more consistent basis. I fancy the Trotters to comprehensively sweep City aside, and strengthen their play-off claims. 1-4.

Cardiff vs. Nott'm Forest
My money is definitely on Cardiff. I know Forest are unbeaten under Davies, but whenever a team is top of the league by a distance towards the end of the season, they often put on a final spurt to make sure they get over the line. I think this'll be the case with Cardiff, especially having been the unlucky team in the play-offs for the past few years. They'll want to knuckle down and make sure they secure Premiership football next season. I'd tip them to win whoever they were playing. 2-0.

Ipswich vs. Hull
This is a Hull win in my book. Ipswich's win at Derby means they're safe, and could therefore lack the fighting spirit needed to play against a top team like Hull. To be fair, Hull's recent form hasn't been fantastic, with 3 wins and 3 defeats from their last 6. But they still find themselves 3pts clear of 3rd place, so I think that's enough of an incentive for them to clinch the win. 0-2.

Middlesbrough vs. Brighton
Middlesbrough are still on this woeful run, having lost 5 of their last 6, and with just one win in 11 games. When you're on that kind of sequence, it can be quite difficult for any manager to motivate the players. Whilst the Borough's play-off hopes have evaporated before their eyes, Brighton's are still bubbling away nicely. 2 points clear of 7th, their chances of getting a spot are good but nowhere near guarenteed, so I think they'll have considerable more impetus than their opponents. 0-2.

Peterborough vs. Watford
In some ways, Watford have done some important damage limitation in the last couple of weeks. Although they remain 3pts behind Hull in 3rd, they actually won at the KC to cut the deficit, and managed a reasonable draw at home to runaway leaders Cardiff. Taking 4pts from the teams in 2nd and 1st is an intriguing sign of their promotion credentials, and to play away from home against a team desperately battling relegation will fit Watford style of play like a glove. They are devastating on the counter-attack when teams push forward against them. 1-3.

Wolves vs. Huddersfield
Both of these teams are currently outside the relegation zone, but that won't make this game any less nerve-wracking for the fans. Wolves need to build on the brief spurt they put together over Easter, which was ended by that defeat at Bolton, to pull themselves away from trouble. At the moment Huddersfield are doing just enough to stay outside the drop zone, but still seem to be making things hard for themselves. I predict that the team who scores first will cling onto a win, and I'm going to go with Wolves given home advantage. 1-0.

Foreign leagues

Celta Vigo vs. Real Mallorca
After back-to-back wins over Granada and Sevilla just a few weeks ago, Mallorca did look to be climbing out of the relegation dogfight, but 5-goal thrashings by Real and Barca sandwiching a damaging defeat at home to Deportivo has sent them down to bottom again. But they can come off the bottom by beating Celta Vigo, who held Barcelona to a shock 2-2 draw recently, but unfortunately they followed that up by losing 2-0 at home to Rayo Vallecano, which suggests that result was a bit of a one-off. I'll back them to edge out Mallorca at home, in what I imagine be a scrappy game, that is typical of bottom-of-the-table encounters. 1-0.

Schalke vs. Bayer Leverkusen
This is a big game in the battle for 3rd place, and the automatic place in the Champions League group stage that comes with it. Leverkusen currently hold a 4 point advantage, but Schalke are at home, and have bounced back from losing 3-0 at Nuremburg by winning back-to-back games. Contrastly, Leverkusen have taken only 4 points from their last 4 matches, and are having a bit of a wobble. Despite the table difference, I do think the momentum is going to be with Schalke, so I'll say they'll get the win which will cut Bayer's lead over them to a single point. 2-0.

Lille vs. Marseille
The battle for that final Champions League spot in France is very tight, with just 2 points separating 4 teams. Lille certainly displayed their credentials for a place when they beat FC Lorient 5-0 in their last match, but Marseille, who haven't conceded in 4 games now, will provide a much sterner test of Lille's attacking talent. But the Ligue 1 title well out of Marseille's hands, so this game feels like a draw. 1-1.

AC Milan vs. Napoli
Although this is 3rd against 2nd, the destiny of the top 3 spaces in Serie A seem to be pretty transparent, so there's no extra incentive for either team. Although AC Milan have kept 4 clean sheets from their last 5 league games, they surprisingly dropped a late 2-goal lead at Fiorentina last time out, which could have been a bit disgruntling for them. Because Napoli have been scoring a lot of goals lately, they've won their last 3, I think they'll have just enough attacking power to nick a goal against this Milan defence. 0-1.