Wednesday 26 June 2013

Moyes's United Tasklist

David Moyes has been faced with a very difficult job: to replace Sir Alex Ferguson at Manchester United. As an admirer of the man, I genuinely fear for him in these circumstances. Although the United fans have vowed to stand by him at Ferguson's final speech, it's easier to get carried away in commitment with Ferguson on the pitch, after winning a 20th title, than to rally behind Moyes if the going got tough.  If Moyes is to make it as a top level manager, there's no better opportunity than going to Manchester United. If Moyes doesn't want his reputation tarnished, there's no bigger risk. Here's what Moyes needs to do.

Can Moyes change his mentality?
1- Be prepared to alter his mentality Moyes may come with this reputation of being a good 'underdog' manager, someone who will take obscure players and drag the best out of them. But this approach alone, won't work at the top level. From the off, Moyes must indicate a willingness to compromise his philosophy, and perhaps a couple of big money signings early on in his Old Trafford career, could act as a statement of intent. 

In addition to this, at Everton he made a habit out of treating every player equally, and ensuring there are no egos in the squad. Over the past couple of decades, United have relied on players like Cantona and Ronaldo, who are a bit arrogant. Moyes may need to change his treatment certain players, to get the best out of his superstars, that ultimately win the top teams trophies.

Key squad member - Giggs
2- Earn the respect of the older players And in particular, Ryan Giggs and Rio Ferdinand. They've been at Manchester United for years and the younger players will look up to them, so it's important that Moyes wins over their trust early. Whilst they are professionals, at other big clubs, managers have paid for failing to control the dressing room, such as Scolari and Villas-Boas at Chelsea. The likes of Giggs and Ferdinand will be accustomed to playing under Ferguson, and Moyes must take an element of responsibilty to make the transition as smooth as possible, in order to then gain the support of the rest of the team.
Aging Ferdinand
3- Find a long-term replacement for Ferdinand Vidic and Ferdinand are aging quickly, whilst the likes of Jones, Smalling and Evans don't seem quite ready to provide an immediate line of replacement. 26-year-old centre-back Ezequiel Garay may be a good investment. Last season, he was part of a Benfica team with a strong defensive record, that finished just one point below winners Porto, and lost just one game.  The only problem with this would be his price tag, as Real Madrid have a 50% transfer turnover clause for Garay, meaning Benfica only get half the money United would pay. Whether Moyes would be prepared to part with a big sum to bring Garay in is up for debate, but United do need a centre back; their defensive record last season left much to be desired.

Not cut it - Anderson
4- Cash in on Anderson Anderson's main problem is that his Brazilian, forward-minded nature doesn't suit United's system. When playing with two wingers, as United did for much of last season, it's important that the two central midfielders are able to hold their shape. Anderson breaks too far forward, on too many occassions.

The Brazilian has had 6 seasons to prove himself since signing for Man U in 2007, and he's not produced the goods often enough. His contract runs out summer 2015, and with Porto possibly interested, there'll never be a better opportunity to sell him. Whilst Anderson has at times added a dynamism and an increased tempo to the midfield, he has done so far too inconsistently. Moyes should bag £10 million for him now, and use that money towards bringing in players with more potential. 

Overpriced - Young
5- Look to use Ashley Young in a swap deal Why Ferguson parted with around £40 million in transfers and wages to sign Ashley Young is beyond me, with better quality available abroad. He only got 3 assists and no goals in 18 games for United last season, which represents a very poor return. With Wilfried Zaha coming in, his position won't need filling, so United can let him go without the direct need to raise funds. He could be a good weapon for bringing in players in future, as his contract doesn't expire until 2016. If United want to buy a player with big potential, they can use Ashley Young in a part-exchange deal, to knock down a price tag, and get a ludicrous £90k a week off their wage bill.
Thiago - replacement for Scholes?

6- Buy a playmaker Thiago, who had little chance under Vilanova at Barcelona last season, could provide a long-term replacement for Paul Scholes. Whilst Michael Carrick's passing range is impressive, his role incorporates a more defensive aspect, and he spends a lot of time positioning himself behind the ball to make interceptions when opponents are on the offensive. United could benefit from a player designed solely to be  looking for the space to spray balls forward and to the flanks. The underused Thiago, who will be looking to boost his 2014 World Cup hopes, would be the perfect solution.

Time to go - Rooney
7- Get rid of Rooney My opinion on Rooney has changed drastically over the past few months. I initially thought he'd be the eventual Scholes replacement, and drop deeper into midfield, as part of United's future plans. But now, I definitely think his time at Old Trafford has come to an end. He has disrespected Manchester United on so many occassions, handed in two transfer requests to leave one of the biggest clubs in the world, and is on £200K a week. Rooney's relationship with David Moyes ended on bad terms by all accounts, and it's difficult to see him being wholly motivated to play for the Scot again.

The rich clubs, such as PSG and Monaco, would be prepared to sign a blank cheque to bring in a player of Rooney's reputation, and perhaps surprisingly, Barcelona have expressed an interest too. United could get £25 million for him, and also save around £10 million a year in wages. As well as the financial benefits this would bring, it would mean United get rid of a potentially negative character in the dressing room, and send a warning message to the other players.


The most important thing, will be that Moyes hits the ground running. Included in his first five games, are Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester City, all of whom are United's rivals. If Moyes wins 2 of those matches, and can pick up 10-13 points from his first 5 games, the United fans will get right behind him, which will make life a lot easier for him, and the fans would be able to put memories of Ferguson aside. But if he loses 2 or 3 of his opening games and gets off to a difficult start, then it'd be difficult to see a way back for him. Manchester United's season go either way, as Moyes embarks on the hardest job in football.







Tuesday 25 June 2013

Mourinho's Chelsea Tasklist

Jose Mourinho, with his eccentric demeanor and win-at-all-costs mentality, is a man who divides many football fans. Some love him for his ability to win 20 trophies in 11 years at the top level, whilst some scorn him for the way in which he has done so. I for one, am in the first category. Whilst the ethical side of his managerial career has been far from perfect, it's not as if it's the only factor in his success and as I have argued recently, ethics plays very little part in modern football. Mourinho is a great psychologist, and as his track record proves, everywhere he's been he's been able to motivate and bring the best out of his players. A man who has the talent to do this must only be admired.

So what needs to be done in Mourinho's latest task: to bring the glory days back to Stamford Bridge? I'm going to run through the Chelsea squad, and analyse what he must do before the Blues have a team that can win the title next season.

1- Hand Courtois the no.1 jersey

Deserves a chance - Courtois
To give Courtois a start in the team is a no-brainer. The Belgian won the Zamora (least goals per game conceded) Trophy and set a new all-time defensive record with a successful Atletico Madrid team in La Liga, keeping 20 clean sheets, Cech played most games for a Chelsea team that conceded 81 goals last season, in all competitions. Unfortunately, Cech hasn't been quite the same goalkeeper since his nasty collision in 2007, and his shot stopping seems to be getting worse with age, rather than better. This incredible season Courtois has had with Atletico, at the age of just 21, tells you his potential, and he is clearly worthy of a first team role.

2- Offload David Luiz

A misfit - Luiz
A controversial decision this would be, yet an essential one nonetheless. The number of quality attacking midfielders Chelsea have, dictates that it would suit them to play 4-2-3-1, to make enough space for the 'three magicians'. Having an attacking quartet of players means that the rest of the team, except for fullbacks providing width, must bear a responsibility to be roundly defensive minded. If one of the sitting midfielders (a role recently suggested for Luiz) started getting forward, not only would that disrupt the pattern of the more creative player's play, but also the team won't be able to retain control of the midfield, when attacks are broken down.

The departure of the Brazilian would suit all parties, and I include any club who buys him in that. He would be perfect as a roaming libero in an Italian team, such as Juventus. A player that starts off technically as a sweeper, but who is given a free role to drive forward as and when to dictate play. To be able to do this though, Luiz needs a team that is built around him, he's not a good enough player for Chelsea to opt to do that. Mourinho must therefore cash in on this unfortunate product of Villas-Boas's plans which didn't materialise, and bring in more team-orientated defensive players.

3- Sign a centre-back

Varane - Chelsea target?
For central defence, Chelsea currently have Ivanovic, Cahill, Terry (and Luiz) on their books. Given that Terry has lost a yard of pace over the past couple of years, and Cahill is hardly a world-class defender, investment in the central defence department will be necessary. Seeing as Internazionale fell away from the Serie A title race so spectacularly last season, perhaps a move for Andrea Ranocchia would prove fruitful. Mourinho has been linked with a move for young Madrid defender Raphael Varane, who would provide a long-term solution, if lacking in experience. Either way, Chelsea's central defence is in definite need of a revamp.

4- Find a long-term replacement for Ashley Cole

The task to replace the arguably best left-back in the world over the past 5 years, is easier said than done.
Shaw - long-term Cole replacement?
My solution though, would be Southampton's teenage prodigy Luke Shaw. 25 Premiership games last season is an impressive feat for a 17-year-old, and he is known to have good technical ability, which will fit Chelsea's system. The one downside of having 3 attacking midfielders, is that occassionally, the play becomes too narrow and defences find ways of forcing congestion. When Chelsea find they need that extra width to variate play, Shaw would come in useful. Furthermore, he would be joining Chelsea at the perfect time. Cole, at 32, has a couple more seasons left in him, but can be gradually faded out of the team and become a tutor for Shaw, to be gradually introduced. An £8 million punt on this kid would be well worth Mourinho's time.


5- Sign a new Makelele

Bender - holding midfielder needed?
When they have the ball, there's no better team out there than Chelsea. The missing ingredient in their midfield, is having someone who does the job when the team hasn't got the ball. They need a player who is naturally pessimistic, selfless, will never break from the halfway line, and prepared to do the dirty work to enable the flair players to grab the headlines. Going back to Mourinho's first stint in charge, I thought Makelele was Chelsea's best player. His mere presence in the midfield gave the likes of Lampard, Cole, Duff and Robben, the mental freedom to get forward and interchange at will, knowing that if they lost the ball, Makelele would be there to provide cover and buy time until the others got back into position. Having him in the side released all pressure.

Defensive midfielders are indirectly multi-functional. When teams attack you, a good defensive midfielder can provide that extra numerical advantage needed to break down the attacks. What's more, they can pass the ball short for the more creative players to start an attack, with the opposition defence caught unprepared. Either Daniele de Rossi of Roma, or Leverkusen's Lars Bender may want the pay rise a move to West London could offer, whilst this Chelsea midfield would greatly benefit from their defensive mindset.

6- Keep the attacking midfielders happy
Pointless buy - Schurrle

Mourinho must get his rotation policy right this season. With Mata, Oscar, Hazard, Marin, De Bruyne and Moses all vying for a similar role, the confirmed signing of Andre Schurrle may well make life harder for Mourinho, rather than easier. It seems as though Chelsea have 4 players who are carbon copies of themselves: attacking midfielders who have good first touch, are able to beat a man, and effective on the counter attack. It may be a wise move for Mourinho to offload Moses and either De Bruyne or Marin, to reduce the intensity of the competition, and give these developing prospects the consistency of gametime required to fullfil their potential. Whilst competition for places can be healthy in places, too much of it can be cause for an unsettled dressing room, which Mourinho will be keen to avoid.


7- Sign Edinson Cavani at all costs

A goalscorer - Cavani
Europe's top striker outside Spain would complete this Chelsea team. The creativity is there for all to see, they just need a player who can stick the chances away consistently. The prolific Uruguayan has scored an excellent 29 goals in 34 games for Napoli last season, almost a goal per game in a more defensive league, and in a team that doesn't create as many chances as Chelsea. Selling the disappointing Demba Ba would be a good start to further increase funds, and perhaps Chelsea could knock off some of Cavani's price tag by offering a swap deal with Fernando Torres re-uniting with Benitez at Napoli. The task for Mourinho is simple here: do what you have to do to bring Cavani in.

If Mourinho can do each of these things successfully, Chelsea are my pick for the title. Whereas Moyes and Pellegrini will have the pressure on them from the off at Chelsea's title competitors, Mourinho already has the respect of the players and fans. If he can use his contacts to bring in some world-class defensive players and Cavani, it's difficult to see anyone in the Premiership stopping Chelsea.


Thursday 13 June 2013

Why morality does not exist in football

Such an obvious statement, given everything that has happened in the game over the last 20 years or so. And yet, it is a statement that so many football fans up and down the land find so hard to accept. 

I'd like to start with this. Barcelona seem to pride themselves on the fact that they are much better at building and creating teams than Real Madrid, even though they've still spent approximately €700 million over the past 10 years. This idea that people should respect Barca because they're 'the ethical team', is ludicrous. Here is a video of Barcelona players diving. I found it quite painful to watch, but it has helped me understand that players will do anything to gain any sort of advantage for their team. This is the stark reality of elite football.

When Gareth Bale or Luis Suarez dive, it creates a media circus and becomes a main discussion point on Match of the Day. I don't mind pundits talking about whether it was a dive or not, but those who constantly, obsessively, slate the players for diving will never be satisfied. Until FIFA or UEFA stamp out cheating, it will always be an unwelcome part of the game. There's zilch that, as fans, we can do to change that. Therefore, we'll only be having the same conversations over and over again, i.e.:
"Was it a dive?"
"Yes, probably."
"Should he have dived?"
"No"

And if you're utterly disgusted by a player diving, you simply shouldn't follow football. You should follow a sport like golf or cricket, where there's no aggression or charge to games. Because I am sure, that underneath most footballers and managers, are bastards who couldn't care about anything other than money and winning. There are clear reasons why this is.

In their upbringing, footballers have obviously spent more time focusing on their football than their education. Very few footballers say anything interesting in interviews. In their professional career, they have a 'win-at-all-costs' mentality ingrained into them by managers and coaches. This means they have very little grasp of ethics. Therefore, if the majority of footballers see an opportunity to gain an advantage for their team, they will take it. They won't consider the moral implications, they won't hesitate as to whether it's the right thing to do, they'll dive instantly, without thinking.

I'm not sure I buy the rule about, being 'entitled to go down if there's contact'. It's all diving. If a player is poked in the back, they'll look to fall over. What's the difference between light contact and no contact at all? The player has more than the capability to stay on his feet, but chooses to fall over. Diving is diving, and there aren't different levels of it.

Adding to this, it's not just Bale and Suarez who do it. I've seen one of my favourite players at Birmingham City, Chris Burke, diving on several occassions. And going back a few years, Blues played Preston at home in December 2006. It was a top of the table clash, and we were 2-1 up in the last 10 minutes. Our player Gary McSheffrey was dribbling inside the box, but not in a shooting position, so he held the arm of the Preston defender and tumbled over, dragging his opponent with him. He did this in a way that made it look like the Preston guy had hauled him to the floor, from the referee's viewpoint. McSheffrey took the penalty, completed his hat-trick and we won 3-1. I could recall a number of examples. Players dive.

Another aspect of ethics in football - or lack thereof - is player wages. On how many occassions have you seen a player disrespect their club, to get a bigger pay packet? Twice, Wayne Rooney has handed in a transfer request at one of the biggest clubs in the world, Manchester United. Alex Ferguson showed enough faith in Rooney to part with £30 million in 2004, when he was 18. Most people in that situation would be unceasingly grateful to Ferguson, for giving him the opportunity to become one of the best players in the world.

Yet 'most people', aren't like footballers. In October 2010, Rooney handed in a transfer request. But in a matter of days, he made a dramatic U-turn a signed a new 5-year deal with United. He obviously gained a pay-rise, and I can't help but think that his transfer request was merely a ploy to get more money. And that's the way he repays someone who showed so much faith in him as a teenager!

In May 2013, Ferguson announced that Rooney had handed in a transfer request, and had asked not to play against Swansea. Rooney's antics in the title celebrations seemed to confirm this. My own opinion on Rooney is that he doesn't love Manchester United, or any club now, he loves money and has become entirely ego-driven. 

The root of the problem is, footballers are paid far too much money, far too young. They don't know how to deal with it, and they let money take a hold of themselves, losing sight of what they value. I find it interesting that if you are one of the select few talented enough to play football in the Premiership, you are considered a very lucky person. 

To some extent, I can understand it because of the idea of becoming rich and famous, for doing something you love. But I would question just how lucky footballers are, in a personal sense. Firstly, they are taught to pathetically dive and con referees, which would look extremely childish and almost sad to an outsider. They play in front of fickle fans who will love you one minute and slate you the next, they're desperate not to be the one that makes a mistake and becomes the target for opposition supporters. Finally, they are paid more money than they can handle. It's clear that too much money and power changes people. 

This is perhaps the most important point. Premiership footballers are known to develop expensive lifestyle habbits, simply because they can afford it, and people are in awe of them when they're spotted in public. This inevitably gets to their heads eventually, and they begin to think they can get away with anything. It's difficult to argue with the number of nightclub incidents and cheating on girlfriends that footballers do, which normal people wouldn't. Because a lot of girlfriends will stand by their footballing boyfriend if they're cheated on (probably for the money and fame), footballers get dragged into thinking that it's sort of okay. 


Of the footballers who are initially good people, very few manage to stay humble. They get dragged into feeling that winning at all costs and money matter more, rather than fair play and people they're close to. Because TV companies will pay Premiership clubs more and more money, these clubs pay players bigger and bigger wages, as well as encouraging cheating, to try and stay/get into the top flight. Because of this, footballers gradually lose touch with reality. 

This is an unfortunate facet of how our game is, and will continue to be until something is done about it.

Tuesday 4 June 2013

Why next season will be the greatest title race ever

Where now?
Let's face it. 12/13 was a rubbish Premiership season, in many ways. We knew the bottom two teams were down in about mid-March, and Wigan's relegation was confirmed before the final day, despite their shock FA Cup win. At various times in the season, the likes of Norwich, Southampton, Aston Villa, Stoke, Newcastle and Sunderland looked like genuine relegation candidates. To the credit of those teams, they all managed to put a run together before they became 'the chasers', rather than the ones being chased.

The Premiership title was an entirely different matter. United ended Chelsea's positive start by clinching a dramatic win at Stamford Bridge, and from December onwards, there was never any doubt as to which part of Manchester the title was going. United stormed to an 11 point lead, Manchester City didn't show up. The interesting thing is, City and Chelsea have better individual players than Manchester United. This leads me to the logic that the difference last season, between City and United, was Mancini and Ferguson. 

Ferguson departs
Ferguson ingrained a winning mentality into that Man U team, integrating the perfect blend of determined youth and calm experience. Looking at their results last season, it strikes me that every time United lost a game, they would win their next 5 in a row. Apart from at the end of the season when the title was wrapped up, they never went on a bad run, and were always able to drastically pick themselves up after the occasional loss.

Hughes/Redknapp at QPR aside, Mancini has had the worst season of all the Premiership managers. After winning the league title by only goal difference the previous year, he foolishly allowed his side to get complacent. This, when competing against a team like Manchester United, was the one thing Mancini couldn't afford to do. His tactical nous had been poor, initially switching the system to 3 at the back, when the tactic they had was working well. In the game against Tottenham, he failed to come up with a plan to deal with Gareth Bale, as Ferguson did successfully. His 2012 summer transfer activity, bringing in the likes of Sinclair, Rodwell and Garcia, weakened the squad. Sergio Aguero and David Silva showed merely glimpses of what they did last season, and Nasri didn't come to life until the final quarter of the campaign. 
Poor season - Mancini

Many say the difference for United this season was the signing of Robin van Persie, yet the stats suggest otherwise. They finished with the same number of points as they did the season before, only City have 11 less. On that evidence, the capitulation of City has to go down as the reason United won, and because City have more world-class players, the blame must lie squarely on Mancini's shoulders. They were right to fire him.

So how will things change this season? What I'm very excited about is that each of the top 3 clubs are bringing a new manager in, and it's tough to call what effect the new men will have. With both Mancini and Ferguson leaving, it'll be a lot closer between City and United. Throw into the mix the highly-anticipated return of Mourinho at Stamford Bridge, with around £100 million to spend, and we've got one hell of a title race on our hands.

A challenge for Moyes
I have my inner-doubts about David Moyes as Manchester United manager. What he's done for Everton is fantastic. He's developed players brilliantly, ingrained a strong work ethic into the team and to spend a net total of £16 million over the course of 10 years, and still establish them  in the top 7 of the Premiership is a fantastic job. I've got a lot of respect for him. However, a big part of how he's done this is by employing a 'no ego' approach. Everton can't attract the pre-Madonnas in football, so their path has been to build a team of humble, hard-working players, who strive to become bigger than the sum of their parts. This involves getting rid of players who believe themselves to be 'bigger than the club'. And this type of management will only take you so far. 

United can be confused with a club that has won so much, because of the desire and work ethic in the team. Of course this certainly helps, it has provided them with the bedrock for their success, yet it's not the key factor. Manchester United won 3 titles and 2 domestic doubles between 1992 and 1996, because of Cantona. They won the Premiership three times in a row between 2007 and 2009, and 2 Champions League finals, one of which they won, because of Ronaldo at his peak. Without these legendary superstars who are a little bit arrogant, but whom Ferguson has made allowances for, Manchester United would not have anywhere near as many trophies as they do.

If the equivalent of Cantona first walks in and decides not to do any physical training, or the new Ronaldo doesn't want to head the ball, how will Moyes respond? It would be a brief relationship! Conversely, Ferguson had an excellent knack for reverse psychology. He recognized that because of certain players' talent, they needed to be pampered and treated in a special way. Because of this, Cantona did begin to participate in physical training out of respect, and Ronaldo ended up notorious for being a great headed goalscorer. As far, Moyes lacks that ability to treat his best players differently, and will need to compromise his philosophy if he wants to succeed at Old Trafford.

Pellegrini is clearly going to Manchester City, who have already confirmed the signing of Jesus Navas. That's a decent appointment for City. Pellegrini has established Malaga in the Champions League, quarter-finalists unbeaten in the group stages, he had experience at managing Real Madrid, and guided Villarreall to the Champions League semi-finals. I would also argue against criticisms that he hasn't won a trophy. The Copa Del Rey is the only achievable trophy at a club like Malaga, which is hard with Real Madrid and Barca always in the competition. Having no trophies is a reflection on his circumstances, not his ability.

Pellegrini will introduce a careful, methodical style to City's play. His previous teams have looked to take control of games, rather than hit the opposition with waves of attacks. Apparently he'll be asked to create a 4-3-3 tactic by chief Txiki Begiristain, which he's never operated before, although he's often been prepared to create systems in accordance with his best attacking players. Furthermore, Pellegrini has been known to like playmakers, which may give David Silva a more significant role.

So how will City's new Spaniard fare? I'd expect him to be an improvement, and perhaps his method of attempting to control games will thrive in Europe, an area Mancini failed. Teams such as Bayern and Barca, who have achieved sustainable European success, have had the ability to outclass most opposition, and stamp their authority on games. With a couple of quality signings, perhaps City will be able to do this.

However, spending isn't the main issue for City this summer. Whilst they need to improve the team, it must be partly done by getting the most out of the players they have, which Mancini couldn't do. Splashing out £100 million on 5 or 6 new players isn't the answer for them. They must go through a brief period of assessing the squad, getting rid of the flops who turn up for their wage packet, before buying players to enhance the team. It's essential they bring in players who are intrinsically motivated, and will help install a work ethic within the side, which seems to be missing at the moment.

If Pellegrini can bring in a long-term replacement for Yaya Toure, a 25-goal a season striker and a solid centre-back to partner Kompany, and get the best out of their key players, they'll be a force to be reckoned with in the title race.

Finally, it's the return of the special one. Jose Mourinho is back at Chelsea. Whilst some people
Return of the Special One
might knock his arrogance, or disapprove of his touchline antics, to me he'll always be a footballing legend. In this next title race, the one thing Mourinho will have in his favour, is immediate support from the fans. Man United supporters were sad to see Ferguson go, and the pressure will be on Moyes to live up to him. Most City fans didn't want Mancini to go, and Pellegrini will be judged from the off. Few Chelsea fans were particularly sad to see Benitez go, and they'll be delighted to see Mourinho back at Stamford Bridge. He will have the respect of the fans and players from the outset.

Of the 3 managers, he'll definitely have the biggest advantage in the transfer market. Having won league titles in Portugal, Italy and Spain as well as England, he'll have the best contacts, and the top players in Europe will want to play under him. It's obvious that more players would choose to play under Mourinho than David Moyes, for example, and the financial power at Chelsea should give Mourinho no problems in bringing in the players he wants.

Tara for Torres?
So who will he buy? Well, Chelsea need to do some reshuffling up front. Whilst scoring more than 20 goals last season was a respectable feat for Torres, most of them were in continental competitions against much weaker teams. This, in itself, suggests that Torres would fare better in the latter stages of his career, to be playing in a foreign league, maybe back in Spain. The Premier League is too physical a game for Torres to compete, he'd be better off leaving. Just 6 goals since signing in January represents a poor return for Demba Ba, and I'd look to move him on. If I was Mourinho, I would keep a hold of Lukaku, but buy a world-class forward, such as Cavani or Falcao, to increase the goal rate. A powerful forward would get the best out of their attacking midfielders, such as Hazard and Mata.

Alongside this, Chelsea are in need of long-term replacements for John Terry and Ashley Cole, and a solid holding midfielder, although Michael Essien could fill this role when he returns from Madrid. Mourinho has emphasized the need to develop the squad he has, yet on the 4 new players which will be necessary, I could see him spending up to £100 million.

No spend, no trophies, Mr Wenger
I don't give Arsenal or Tottenham a shout. Arsenal are in need of significant investment in their squad, but even if Wenger chooses to spend, the squad overhaul will either be done over the course of a few seasons, or in one summer, in which case new players will need time to settle. Tottenham don't hold the luxury of Champions League football to appease the top players with, and have become far to much of a one-man team in Gareth Bale, who will probably go to Real Madrid.

So it's a case of 'take your pick' from the top 3. I'm prepared to wait until August to make an official verdict, but my first instinct is that the title will go to Mourinho's Chelsea. I think he'll immediately glean the respect of his players, and through his multi-cultural experiences, will have matured to an extent that he won't be ruled by past glory. From his interview, he has said that he wants to build a team over time rather than be a 'quick fix' at Chelsea. That will go down well amongst the Chelsea faithful, and you'd have to say he's in the best position to get off to a good start in terms of summer signings, and early results.