Sunday 4 May 2014

Championship Predictions: How did Gabriel do?

After a grueling nine months of my in-depth research and agonizing over the potential outcomes of a series of football matches, this Championship season has finished. So, having predicted a total of 468 games over the course of the season, how have I fared? Here are my results:

Date
Correct Results
Exact Scorelines
Points
03/08
3
0
3
10/08
2
0
2(/11)
17/08
3
0
3
24/08
5
1 - Watford 1-1 Nottm Forest
8
31/08
3
1 - Charlton 2-1 Leicester
6
14/09
2
0
2
21/09
6
1 - Charlton 0-1 Millwall
9
19/10
3
1 - Blackburn 0-1 Charlton
6
26/10
1
1 - Leicester 2-1 Bournemouth
4
02/11
2
2 - Leeds 2-0 Yeovil, Wigan 2-1 Huddersfield
8
09/11
4
1 - Middlesbrough 2-2 Watford
7
23/11
3
4 - Sheff Wed 1-2 Huddersfield, Birmingham 1-1 Blackpool, Ipswich 1-2 Leicester, Nottm Forest 1-1 Burnley
15
30/11
1
1 - Blackpool 2-0 Sheff Wed
4
03/12
3
3 - Birmingham 1-1 Doncaster, Millwall 2-2 Nottm Forest, Derby 2-1 Middlesbrough
12
21/12
2
2 - Bolton 1-1 Charlton, Ipswich 1-1 Watford
8
26/12
2
1 - Huddersfield 1-1 Derby
5
29/12
6
1 - Blackpool 0-1 Brighton
9
01/01
2
1 - Reading 1-1 Nottm Forest
5
11/01
6
1 - Blackpool 0-2 Midlesbrough
9
18/01
2
3 - Bournemouth 1-1 Watford, Burnley 1-1 Sheff Wed, QPR 2-1 Huddersfield
11
28/01
5
3 - Burnley 0-0 Brighton, Leeds 1-1 Ipswich, Millwall 1-1 Sheff Wed
14
01/02
6
2 - Blackburn 2-0 Blackpool, Sheff Wed 1-0 Barnsley
12
08/02
5
0
5
11/02 +
15/02
3
2 - Watford 1-0 Birmingham, Millwall 1-1 Bolton
9(/13)
22/02
4
0
4
01/03
6
1 - QPR 1-1 Leeds
9
08/03
3
0
3
11/03
3
0
3
15/03
4
2 - Leicester 3-1 Blackpool, Millwall 0-0 Charlton
10
22/03
4
1 - Wigan 2-1 Watford
7
25/03
1
1 - Burnley 2-0 Doncaster
4
29/03
1
2 - Bolton 1-1 Wigan, Leeds 1-2 Doncaster
7
05/04
2
0
2
08/04
3
1 - Barnsley 0-1 Burnley
6
12/04
2
1 - Derby 3-1 Huddersfield
5
18/04
2
0
2
21/04
2
2 - Derby 2-1 Barnsley, QPR 2-1 Watford
8
26/04
3
2 - Brighton 2-0 Yeovil, QPR 1-1 Millwall
9
03/05
3
2 - Ipswich 2-1 Sheff Wed, Leeds 1-1 Derby
9
Total
123
47
264
Average
3.2
1.2
6.8
The first thing the jumps out at me is that I have got the right outcome (result & scoreline combined) 170 times. 170 divided by 468 is 0.36. Times that by 100, that's 36%. So my record for getting the right outcome is in fact, only slightly better than 1 in 3. And there's only 1 in 3 possible outcomes of a game. Suffice to say, I do not possess the required psychic powers.

Simplistic though it may seem, the only thing I take away from this, is that it is impossible guess the future. Football is such an unpredictable sport, yet it is a sport that so many people have their opinions on, myself included. But there are so many variables involved, and so many potential factors, that it is impossible to consistently come up with a reliable theory on how a match will pan out. In many ways, that is why we love the game. Football just keeps you guessing.

On a final note, this is my last ever post on this blog. I have set up a new website: The Football Lab. Many thanks to everybody who has followed The Score. I do hope you've enjoyed reading it more than I've enjoyed writing it, because it's been an absolute bloody nightmare.

Gabriel

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