Friday 30 November 2012

Gameweek 15 Predictions

Good day to one and all, and welcome to another week of my Premier League predictions. I have to say, I'm not doing too well at the moment; I haven't won any of the previous 5 prediction weeks, and haven't taken more than 3pts in most of them. Need to put that right. Joining this week, as always is Del, and James Allen, a Bristol Rovers supporter and writer of football blog 'The Pirates Tale' .
 
So, in the biggest game down at the bottom this week, Harry Redknapp has his first home game in charge of QPR and will attempt to close the gap between themselves and Aston Villa who sit just out of the relegation zone, meanwhile in-form Southampton travel up to Liverpool, who looked to be hitting some form themselves but took a blow when they lost at Tottenham earlier in the week.
 
That result will have seen memories of the 5-2 defeat to Arsenal fade from view for Spurs fans, and they've got yet another London derby, this time in the shape a difficult trip to high-scoring Fulham, Rafa Benitez, who's new side only managed a draw at home to the Cottagers in midweek, have to play West Ham, West Brom look to get over their defeat to Swansea and could still go 3rd when they host Stoke, there are games of slightly less promise when a jaded-looking Newcastle team play Wigan, and clean sheet merchants Norwich and Sunderland go head-to-head.
 
Towards the top of the table, Arsenal look to get their challenge for 4th back on track when they have what appears to be a comfortable game against Swansea, and it's Man City who look the most likely of the Manchester clubs to slip up this weekend as they play host to Everton, who played out a draw with the Gunners midweek, and Man United have a slightly more forgiving game at struggling Reading.
 
Lets get to the games:

West Ham vs. Chelsea
 
I think an upset is definately on the cards here. West Ham have averaged almost 2pts per game at home this season, and they do work incredibly hard for each other. They grind out results, which big Sam has got teams doing throughout his career. This game will be no different, so it'll be a very difficult match for Chelsea.
 
It would be utterly impossible for Rafael Benitez's new team to not be affected by whats' happened off the pitch. I can't stress enough how stupid a decision it was from Abramovich to sack di Matteo, how can Chelsea players be fully concentrating on their football if the fans are still chanting di Matteo's name? To me, they look like a team in limbo, and I would compare that to West Ham, who I'm sure will fight for every ball and be very competitive.
 
I think Cahill and Luiz might struggle with Andy Carroll, and if he can win all the flick-ons for the likes of Nolan and Jarvis to run onto, I've got a feeling there's a goal in this game for West Ham. If they do score first, I highly doubt that Chelsea will have that mental strength to get back into it, so I'm going to be controversial and go 1-0 to West Ham.
 
Del says: 2-1
James says: 0-1


Arsenal vs. Swansea

Arsenal should have enough about themselves to win this fairly comfortably. They might only be a point above Swansea in the table; drawing their last two games wasn't a great way to follow up the 5-2 derby win over Spurs, but I still think they'll win and players like Giroud look to be finding their feet at this level- I fancy him for a goal.
 
Swansea continue to impress under Michael Laudrup; a win over West Brom saw them climb up to 8th in the table and I'm happy to consider them safe. To get anything from Arsenal ,who need the points significantly more than them will be too much to ask, so I'm going to say a 2-0 win for the Gunners.
 
Del says: 3-0
James says: 2-1
 
 
Fulham vs. Tottenham

I can see goals in this one. Both sides are amongst the highest-scoring in the Premiership, and neither have a particularly solid defence. In fact, they have scored (25) and conceded (23) exactly the same number of goals as each other, which is almost 2 goals a game.
 
Having just looked at Arsenal in the prediction above, you thought that the 5-2 would have a massive impact on both sides seasons, that Arsenal would somehow get back into the title race and that Tottenham would capitulate and sack AVB. The previous two results for both teams since that suggest that neither will happen, because Tottenham were fairly good value for wins over West Ham and Liverpool, whilst Arsenal have drawn a couple of games.
 
Fulham did well to keep a clean sheet at Chelsea in midweek, and they had a couple of chances to snatch it themselves which will be pleasing for Martin Jol. To be honest, I don't know why Tottenham sacked him; they finished 5th under him twice and nearly got into the Champions League. It's fair to say Jol will have revenge on his mind, but I'm edging towards a 2-3 win for Tottenham in a dramatic game.
 
Del says: 1-0
James says: 1-3
 
 
 

Liverpool vs. Southampton

Liverpool seem to be having a very stop-starty season. They keep winning a game, but then they don't get any sort of consistency in matches afterwards. That's proved to be the case for them in November too; they got a great result in a point at Chelsea, then a very convincing 3-0 win over Wigan, but after that they haven't been able to string 3 or 4 results together- an average draw at Swansea and an arguably unlucky defeat at Tottenham has seeped out some of their momentum. They've now got to do it over again.
 
Southampton are looking good to get out of the relegation battle at the moment. They've picked up 7pts from their last 3, which is more than what they had attained all season before that. Whilst Gazzaniga is liable to a few costly errors as the Norwich game proved, they look capable of competing at this level and scoring goals. The likes of Sunderland, Villa and Wigan ought to watch out for them.
 
I've decided to go for a close Liverpool win, with Suarez to be the main factor again as he has been Liverpool's saviour this season. Southampton won't give the Reds' defence an easy time, but I'm going 2-1 Liverpool.
 
Del says: 1-1
James says: 2-0
 
 
Man City vs. Everton

(see previous article for full match preview)
I say: 2-1
Del says: 2-0
James says: 2-0

QPR vs. Aston Villa

I'll go as far as saying that if QPR don't win this, I'm pronouncing them down. Redknapp has taken on almost an impossible task to keep them up, and I would worry about the long-term financial stability of that club as well, because if they can't stay in the Premiership, they won't be able to afford the wages that some of their players are on.
 
My opinion could change if they get 6 or 7 points from their next three games and start looking like a force, but I just think the gap is too wide. Villa got an important win over Reading on Tuesday, and I think Christian Benteke is starting to justify some of his hefty price tag- he's keeping Darren Bent out of the team.
 
Lambert mustn't be impressed with Bent's attitude despite his talent, and I actually commend the Scots' egalitarian management style. He doesn't pick players just because they're big names. Then again, Benteke has got an extra 'eke' on the end so he must do to some extent. Will go for a 0-1 away win for Villa, to send QPR into very serious relegation trouble.
 
Del says: 1-3
James says: 1-1
 
 
West Brom vs. Stoke

Last week, I predicted the West Brom reality check at the wrong time. They did get a fabulous 4-2 win at Sunderland but lost at Swansea on Wednesday. You can't win them all. It doesn't sound quite right to say Baggies are trying to get back on the road with a win here, because to be joint-3rd, they were overachieving in the first place, but neither do I think that they'll sink like a stone now because of that result.
 
Stoke are on 19pts which is a great return at this stage of the season. Not once for me have I thought about them being relegation candidates, simply because of their defensive record, particularly at home, and conceding so few goals always takes the pressure off the strikers.
I'm settling on a 1-1 draw, which considering how well these teams seasons are going, both teams will be satisfied with a point each.
 
Del- (not predicted)
James says: 2-1
 
 
Reading vs. Man Utd

There's normally at least one surprise result of the weekend, but I don't think this will be it. Reading's defence isn't exactly woeful, but it's average for a team in the relegation battle and that's not nearly going to be enough to stop Manchester United.
 
The Red Devils have their last Premiership match before the crucial Manchester derby and I'm sure all four attackers will want to put their case forward for a start next week- when you've got that kind of incentive and motivation I can't see any team getting in their way.
 
I did think Reading may be able to get themselves on the scoresheet, bearing in mind that Man United have the joint-10th best defensive record in the division, but on reflection I reckon that United will control the midfield so much that Reading won't have a chance to get on the ball and make things happen for themselves. 0-3.
 
Del says: 0-3
James says: 1-3
 
 
Norwich vs. Sunderland

I'm seeing a bit of a bore draw for this game. Norwich have done exceptionally well in recent weeks and to continue their form by getting 4pts out of Manchester United and Everton was fantastic for them, and it meant a point at Southampton was a good result in the circumstances. United, Everton and Southampton are all sides with a lot of goals in them as well and they've been restricted- the fact that Norwich haven't conceded more than one goal in a game since early October speaks volumes for their defence.
 
You feel a clean sheet is there for the Canaries, because with Sunderland I'm still not sure where the goals are going to come from. They followed up a great win at Fulham with just 1pt from West Brom and QPR at home, which is relegation form again. They can't afford to lose this game, so I'm going with a goalless draw as my official prediction, though I wouldn't be totally surprised if Norwich found it in themselves to get a winner.

Del says: 1-1
James says: 1-0


Newcastle vs. Wigan

It's a case of stopping the rot for Newcastle. They've still got a number of key players out and I don't think their small squad is coping with these Europa League games. To be honest I don't think the Europa League is worth it for clubs, because the financial rewards for TV money aren't anywhere near what it is for playing in the Champions League, and it doesn't give clubs enough money to give themselves the squad they need to compete on several fronts. Once they've got their top players back though, Newcastle fans shouldn't lose too much sleep over their relegation problems this season.
 
Wigan couldn't be expected to get anything out of Man City on Wednesday and I thought they gave a decent account of themselves, considering they've not got the biggest squad either. They got an important win over Reading on Saturday, so if they had got anything in midweek, it would have been a bonus rather than a necessity. 1-0 Newcastle.

Del says: 2-1
James says: 2-1
 
 
Those were my predictions, my thanks to James and Del who sent in theirs. It's Friday night, so I'm off to watch Blues play Middlesbrough later. Might write something on the game, we're 19th in the Championship at the moment, whilst Middlesbrough are up to 3rd and if they win they go into the automatic promotion places. Christ, this is gonna be a nightmare. Wish me luck.

Thursday 29 November 2012

Mega match preview: Man City vs. Everton

To kick off the weekend prep, thought I'd start a weekly theme where I dedicate one whole article to the biggest game on.  I did think about doing the West Ham v Chelsea match, but I think I covered Chelsea and the whole Benitez saga a couple of weeks ago, I wanted to do something different.
 
With just 1pt between the Manchester clubs at the top of the table, it was either gonna be Man City-Everton or Reading against Man United. I could be eating my words on Sunday, but the City game seems the game that is most likely to provoke an upset. I think City's match ought to be slightly tighter and has the added spice of the race for 4th spot, which Everton will be keen to put pressure on Tottenham, West Brom and Chelsea for.
 
It's all to play for then, as both the Manchester clubs play their final matches before the crucial derby at the Etihad next weekend. Let's have a look at the man v man battles:
 
Individual battles

 
Pablo Zabaleta (RB) vs. Steven Pienaar (LM)- if Zabaleta continues his attacking mentality to offer support for the flanks in this match, he could leave a fair bit of space for Pienaar to exploit, which he has proven he can do effectively. The South African was considered one of Everton's best players in the match against Arsenal and will have Leighton Baines combining with him by making forward runs. Also, if Moyes wants to change it around in the second half, he has Bryan Oviedo on the bench, who has plenty of pace and grabbed an assist the week before against Norwich. Many people say Everton have the best left-side in the country, so Zabaleta could be in for a tough afternoon.
 
Vincent Kompany + Matija Nastasic (CB) vs. Nikica Jelavic (ST)- Jelavic has often been played as the only recognised striker in 4-4-1-1 formations at Everton lately, with Fellaini causing some havoc in the air just behind him. I would say 5 goals from 14 games for the Croatian this season hasn't exactly proved this system to be a resounding success, and he may find chances hard to come by against Man City, who have the best defensive record in the division. Having said that, Nastasic looked poor against Wigan on Wednesday night, and Jelavic may see him as the weak-link in the defence for him to exploit. I think Kompany can just about handle the Everton striker, but if he has to move out of position to do so, that could potentially open up space for the likes of Fellaini, Naismith, Baines and Pienaar to make attacking runs into the box unchallenged.
 
Marouane Fellaini (unmarked?)- I think it was a masterstroke from David Moyes to move Fellaini up to an attacking midfield role and build the team around him. The Belgian's control of the ball is second to none, if you direct the ball vaguely towards his shoulder, he will always take it down and bring others around him into play- all of a sudden you're looking to get a shot away from being in your own half. That's how effective Fellaini is. Plus, having him in the hole role instead of being a target man striker means nobody in the opposition team quite knows who should be marking him- the general confusion he creates has been instrumental in a lot of Everton goals. Man City will have an extremely difficult task to keep this guy quiet.
 
Aleksandr Kolarov (LB) vs. Steven Naismith (RM)- Kolarov looks more naturally like a left-winger to me than a left-back. He might have an impressive free-kick on him, but defensively he doesn't seem comfortable and wants to play further up the pitch. Naismith's 3 goals from 13 Premiership matches this season is a respectable return from right midfield, he's in decent goalscoring form at the moment and times his runs to the back post impeccably. I'm not sure Kolarov has the spacial awareness as a defender to stop him from getting on the end of some crosses from the left-wing. There could be more danger here for City than most will predict.

 
Yaya Toure (CDM) vs. Darron Gibson (CM)- Gibson has been a decent buy for Everton and fits in with their ethos of building a hardworking team, but there'll be no beating Yaya Toure in midfield.  He's got everything you want from a midfield general: work rate, positional sense, tough tackling, passing ability, shots from range- if there's a better central midfielder in the Premiership, it's certainly not Darron Gibson.
 
Gareth Barry (CDM) vs. Leon Osman (CM)- I've got a soft spot for Osman, I like how he's been at Everton for almost 10 years and he's never wanted to leave, just gets on with the job. Javi Garcia's start to his City career has been scupperred by an injury, he featured against Wigan in midweek before being taken off, but I've got a feeling Mancini will play it safe and play Gareth Barry in this one. Barry isn't one of Man City's better players, but neither really is Osman for Everton, so I reckon the majority of the action will be out wide.
 
James Milner (RM) vs. Leighton Baines (LB)- the clash of the workhorses. James Milner is fantastic at tracking back from midfield and I'm sure Mancini will play him to help Zabaleta combat Everton's threatening-looking left flank, whilst Baines is well known for his adventurous forward-runs. We can expect to see a lot of stamina, grit and determination in this battle for space, so Milner needs to be given extra defensive responsibilities. Who comes out on top on Everton's left flank is likely to have a big say in the outcome of the match.
 
David Silva (LM) vs. Tony Hibbert (RB)- I like Hibbert for similar reasons to Osman- he's been a good servant to the club but he won't be able to deal with Silva. The Spaniard's magical feet ought to be too much for Hibbert, although I'd expect him to cut inside quite a bit and operate in that attacking midfield area, where he'll have more space. I can see Everton struggling with him, because he can lose his marker with ease, but if they put two men on him, that'll free up more space for Tevez, Aguero and/or Dzeko. You can't win.

 
Sergio Aguero (ST) vs. Phil Jagielka (CB)- if he plays, this will be Kun Aguero's 3rd game in the space of a week, so Jagielka has a chance of seeing an off-day for the Argentine. On the other hand, there's still the options of players like Dzeko and Super Mario coming off the bench. I've a feeling Jagielka could get a slice of luck, because I wouldn't expect Aguero to be quite at his best.
 
Carlos Tevez (ST) vs. Sylvain Distin (CB)- Tevez has got the advantage of not having played during the week, whereas Distin has. Distin may be experienced enough, but I doubt he'll have enough to deal with Tevez's energy and quality of movement. I fancy Tevez for a goal.
 
Man City can go top temporarily with a win.
 
Man City play a couple of hours before United do against Reading, which I think works marginally in their favour psychologically. The United players will undoubtedly have the City game on their minds in the lead-up to kick off, perhaps rather than the game itself and will have the added pressure of reacting to a result. City don't have to do that and can only be concentrating on their game- I think that will benefit them going into this. They should have a good mindset.
 
The Citizens would go top, for the time being with a win, and would stay there if Man United dropped any points against Reading- it'll be a good incentive for them to put so much pressure onto their neighbours ahead of their match.
 
Another important factor for City, is that the Manchester Derby is coming up, which ought to impact the team in two ways. Firstly, if they can gain 2pts on United this weekend, they'll go in the lead, meaning that they won't necessarily need to win the derby, which would be a big advantage. If United do win their game, it's also a case for City of keeping the distance before the match- if they can stay within 1pt of Man U, it'll mean that a win for them in the derby would see them go 2pts clear, rather than it being a reduction of deficit.
 
The other way in which I'd expect the Manchester derby to affect the team, is that everyone will be fighting for their place ahead of that match. All four strikers particularly, will want to prove their worth to the team. You'd think all the players would be working extra hard in training to try and put their case for a start forward, especially as Mancini has been known for his tinkering methods.
 
I would definately say the incentive is there for Man City to get the three points, and not knowing or thinking about their rivals' results could well offer them a psychological advantage, in the respective clubs' final matches before the crucial Manchester derby.
 
Everton want 4th
 
I'm not saying the Toffees would be out of the race for that final Champions League spot if they lose this, because there's still a long way to go in the season, but they'd have their work cut out. Tottenham have picked themselves up brilliantly with two victorys since the defeat to Arsenal, they've hit form at completely the wrong time from Everton's point of view, because the two teams have got to play each other soon, before Everton have got unenviable trips to Stoke and West Ham.
 
Of course nothing can be guarenteed, but I don't think Everton can afford to write off this match completely. Dropped points against Reading and Norwich means they should really endeavor to get all 3 in this match, though you'd have to think they'd take a draw if it was offered it to them. If they lose this however, they are going to be in trouble when they face Tottenham, who I make favourites for that 4th spot.
 
Then again, maybe they need to lower their ambitions a touch. I'd be praising the job David Moyes has done if they had spent the amount they have over the past 10 years, and were midtable. To be talking about them being disappointed not to get 4th is a real testament to the job the Scot has done, and let's not forget they still might.
 
My prediction
 
I initially predicted a clean sheet for City, purely because they've got the best defensive record in the Premiership. Having considered the possible line-ups though, I can't help but feel that there are weaknesses at the back Everton can exploit - particularly if Nastasic plays and he gets drawn out of position, Kompany could become rather isolated alongside the attacking fullbacks - so I'd say there's a goal in this for Everton.
 
On balance, I think City can score two. I'd expect them to be highly motivated, I think Tevez has the tenacity to outrun Sylvain Distin and grab himself a goal, and Dzeko always looks a good bet for a winner coming off the bench.
 
Verdict: 2-1

Monday 26 November 2012

You'd have to be mad to be a manager

What two things do the following three managers have in common? Brian Clough, Jose Mourinho, Ian Holloway.
 
The first thing is that, in their different ways, all of these managers are very enjoyable to watch: Brian Clough had that ability to come up with a line or two that makes people smile at his conceitedness, Jose Mourinho has a swagger about him, always looks overly relaxed whilst Ian Holloway seems to speak with an honest and genuine passion for the game. Also, all of these managers, Holloway debatably, have been successful.
 
What I want to raise a question on, is why aren't there more eccentric and quirky, some might say, people involved in football management? I feel like there must be a psychological correlation between a manager being interesting to watch/humourous in interviews, and them gaining the respect of their team.
 
All of these managers are known for understanding how to motivate their teams, and get them playing perhaps better than the sum of their parts. It may be linked to being able to get people's attention, the aforementioned people were/are fantastic at doing that in press conferences, and I think that talent can transfer into man management skills in the dressing room.
 
You get some managers, like Mark Hughes being the example I'd use, who you can guess roughly what they'll say and over time they become a little predictable, and you don't want to listen to them. It might just be my opinion, but I think there's a strong link between a manager being charasmatic, and a manager being successful.
 
Involved in that link is an understanding of how to motivate people, how different players minds' work and, what I think is a very underrated part of being a football manager, which is knowing how to get your players to want you to like them. Jose Mourinho in particular was fantastic at that at Chelsea, because he built up close working relationships with his players. This doesn't always work if there isn't some sort of barrier of respect, but crucially, players wanted to play under him. Let's have a look at what the likes of Clough, Holloway and Mourinho have achieved during their careers, their media-handling style and how that may translate into the way they motivate their players...
 
Brian Clough
 
 
Old big 'Ead is arguably the greatest manager ever to have graced the game, and is certainly the most charasmatic. His unprecented achievements with Derby County and Nottingham Forest - taking them from the second tier of English football to winning the first division title and in the case of Forest, winning the Champions League twice in succession - is a feat no manager has ever been able to do since, and unless a club gets a mega-rich chairman, they will probably never be able to do so.
 
Clough's confidence, which in many people's eyes trod a thin line between confidence and arrogance, clearly inspired his teams to achieve what they did. The fact that he flourished at both Derby and Forest means it was certainly no fluke. I accept that on both occassions, he had a fantastic talent-spotter in Peter Taylor and his spell at Leeds proved he couldn't succeed on his own- Taylor was fantastic at finding the pieces for Clough's teams, particularly with the find of Dave Mackay as a sweeper, but Clough's motivational skills meant he could put those pieces together and make the team work. He did that by transferring his confidence, which we have seen so often in his interviews, into his players.
 
It's no coincidence that Clough is considered one of the greatest managers of all time, yet is also the most captivating. His presence must have played a part in the way he built up the confidence of his sides and it must have been used as a way of motivating players- clearly to great effect. He signed players such as Roy MacFarland at Derby, from the lower divisions and turned them into world-beaters. You can't do that unless you are an amazing motivator, and Clough was.
 
Ian Holloway
 
 
I could quite easily spend a couple of hours looking through videos on YouTube of old Ian Holloway interviews. He's often labelled as 'mad' by some, with the quotes that he comes out and says, but I think there's a human quality to him, and a lot of what he talks about resonates with me. Whenever he speaks on subjects like the amount of money footballers are being paid, how he wants to lower the ticket prices and develop the youth system at his club I really admire that, because he's kept what he truly values throughout his football career. He comes up with a lot of metaphors and unusual sayings to illustrate the point he's making, but surely that's more a sign of intelligence than madness? I've got a lot of admiration for him.
 
Now, I'm open to arguments from people saying that he relegated Leicester and left Plymouth in controversial circumstances. I would defend him personally, because he's referenced it in the past that he made a big mistake leaving the Pilgrims and you've also got to take into account that he was a relatively young manager, in his mid-40s at the time. After that, what he did with Blackpool was unbelievable. He had quite a small transfer budget and took the Seasiders from being favourites for relegation from the Championship, to promotion to the Premier League, and they very nearly stayed up on the last match of the season. The season after that, many expected Blackpool to finish midtable, but Holloway lead them into the play-off final and they narrowly lost to West Ham.
 
He might not have a CV as good as Clough's or Mourinho's, but his achievements with Blackpool were extraordinary. Let's not forget as well that Crystal Palace, the club he manages at the moment, are currently 2nd in the Championship and 3pts clear of 3rd place- he can achieve promotion with them. On the whole, I think Holloway is a very good manager and probably needed the experience he had at Leicester to learn from. I think he's got a chance of becoming an established Premiership manager in the next 5 years, which I'd love to see, because he's probably the most enjoyable one I've ever listened to.
 
Jose Mourinho
 
 
With short-term successes at Porto, Chelsea, Inter Milan and Real Madrid, Mourinho has the most varied managerial CV in the world and no-one can deny that he is a world-class manager. Personally, I don't necessarily take to his arrogance. In his first press conference as Chelsea manager, he dubbed himself 'the special one'. It seems a bit of a bold statement to make when you're the new manager of a football club, and 99% of people in that situation would have taken the line of: "I'm delighted to be here, I think Chelsea is a great club, hopefully we can achieve things here and win trophies." But the laid-back approach Mourinho took was quite surprising.
 
A few years later in his career, I watched matches in the last couple of seasons between Real Madrid and Barcelona; you'd see Pep Guardiola being very composed, folding his arms on the touchline and having a thoughtful look, whilst Mourinho would be running up and down, jumping, berating the officials and sulking. I think if any other manager had that level of eccentricity they'd be sacked immediately. If the Gillingham manager behaved like Mourinho did in a drab 0-0 draw with Port Vale, they would look weird and would lose the respect of everyone. Mourinho's brilliance makes up for it though, he can get away with it. Because he is a great manager, he can afford to call himself 'the special one' because he is the special one- and he's got the management skills to prove it.
 
What he's won in his career is staggering: all of the domestic league and cups in Portugal, England, Italy and Spain plus the UEFA Cup with Porto and the Champions League with Porto and Inter. You just can't argue with it, he's got so much charisma, love him or hate him you have to acknowledge that he is one of the best managers in the world.
 
 
 
All of these managers, in rather different ways, share the common ground that they're always enjoyable to listen to, and due to their respective successes, I'd be confident in saying that that translates into their ability to motivate players to want to play under them. 
 
What I don't understand, is why there aren't more of these types of managers? The majority of football managers are often very bland, straightforward, to the point, but you get one or two characters over the course of time, like Clough and Mourinho, who step in with a massive personality, and they take clubs to immediate success. These types of managers are incredibly rare, but also incredibly talented. What I would question is, why these characters are so uncommon?
 
Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that almost all managers are ex-footballers- the way footballers tend to be brought up, particularly in this country, is not to show any emotion. In dressing room culture, emotion can be seen as a sign of weekness, so maybe footballers may train themselves to blot out any interest they have in reading or any kind of arts, because there's a fear of judgement, so they aren't taught to nuture their own intellect.
 
Interestingly, Jose Mourinho wasn't a footballer, instead he was born into quite a well-off family in Setubal and went to study Sports Science, so he wasn't raised in a particularly competitive-male environment. Having said that, one wonders where the likes of Clough and Holloway were able to develop their mind, to be able to come up with the sayings they have, as they were both brought up in Council Houses, and neither were particularly academic.
 
On the whole, I'm of the opinion that it'll only be once the somewhat negative and discouraging environments within groups of lads at football clubs changes (which it may never do) when boys are encouraged to branch out more and expand themselves intellectually, then we'll see more and more 'interesting' managers in the Premiership, as oppossed to those who say what they think is expected of them, and aren't as comfortable being interviewed. At the moment, the likes of Clough, Holloway and Mourinho have been/are very much one-offs, but one can hope that if the cultural expectations within younger men is changed in the long-term, then we'll see more of these kinds of managers, and moreover, more of these kinds of people.

The Scores- 26/11/12

Partly because I didn't get a chance to see all of the matches on Match of the Day and MOTD2, partly due to time constraints (and also because there were a lot of 0-0s) I've decided to just do a round-up of 5 of the biggest games on this weekend. There were four of us predicting the scores, let's have a look to see how we got on:

Sunderland 2-4 West Brom
I said: 2-1, +0pts
Del said: 0-1, +1pt
Rami said: 1-0, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 2-1, +0pts

An brilliant win for West Brom that sees them go 5pts clear in the 'race' for Champions League qualification. It's remarkable. A lot of people, myself included, thought West Brom's honeymoon period must come to an end at some point; as a matter of principle more than anything else, because it's so rare for a team of West Brom's calibre to be in the top four for longer than 10 games. By the looks of things, what they've done so well is keeping their feet on the ground, focusing and working on every single game without letting themselves get carried away. I know I keep saying it, but massive credit has to go to Steve Clarke for that. Manager of the season so far, for me. Has to be.
 
 
Man Utd 3-1 QPR
I said: 5-0, +1pt
Del said: 2-0, +1pt
Rami said: 5-1, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 4-0, +1pt

The Rs put in a credible performance for the first 60 minutes at Old Trafford and there's a fair bit from this showing that Harry can be encouraged by. To get anything from United though, they would have needed to have been on their guard for the whole match and two sloppy goals conceded from set pieces with 25 minutes to go lost them the opportunity to get a result. Redknapp needs to get instant points now. QPR sit bottom of the table, 7pts away from safety and have 3 massive games coming up against Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan. If 'Appy Harry can inspire the team to two wins from those matches then they'll be in with a shout, because there's still a long way to go in the season, but if the win doesn't come then I just can't see QPR staying up.
 
 
Southampton 2-0 Newcastle
I said: 3-0, +1pt
Del said: 0-2, +0pts
Rami said: 2-1, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 2-1, +1pt

I did have a very strong incling before the game that Southampton would win and to be honest, I'm delighted for them. Even when they lost 6-1 at Arsenal and 4-1 at West Ham earlier on in the season, I still had a feeling they could get out of the relegation zone because they do have a fantastic ability to create chances, they can scare a lot of teams plus Ramirez looks an absolutely top-draw player. It was no less than what the club deserves from their support for Adkins, and I'm going to predict they'll stay up this season.
 
 
Tottenham 3-1 West Ham
I said: 1-1, +0pts
Del said: 4-2, +1pt
Rami said: 2-0, +1pt
Predicts Pro said: 2-1, +1pt

A brilliant day for Tottenham. I was worried the team had lost it's respect for Villas-Boas but they got a comfortable win over their rivals, and played exceptionally well. I had my doubts about Clint Dempsey signing, mainly because of his age and would have preferred to have seen Moutinho to replace Modric, but he's looking like a real stringfellow in that Totteham team. His link-up play was brilliant and that dinked through ball for Bale's goal was fantastic, but after the 5-2 Spurs badly needed that win.
 
 
Chelsea 0-0 Man City
I said: 1-3, +0pts
Del said: 2-3, +0pts
Rami said: 1-2, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 2-2, +1pt
 
I really don't know why Benitez took the job. It's perfectly clear Chelsea fans don't like him, I'm not sure why any manager would want to work under any manager who is as trigger-happy as Abramovich is- I just think his tenure at Chelsea has the makings of a complete disaster and can't see him lasting there for longer than a few months.
 
I watched the game, and the Chelsea fans clearly weren't happy about having Rafa in charge. Some sections of the fans were chanting 'Rafa out', with signs displaying that kind of message, there was a round of applause for di Matteo on 16 (his shirt number) minutes, whilst others weren't supporting the team wholeheartedly, more reserving judgement. There was a very frosty atmosphere, and on another day Man City could easily have been more clinical and scored a couple of goals to win it. I don't believe a word of Benitez afterwards saying "I didn't hear the chants" He must have known, and I think he's in for a torrid time.
 
 
Everton 1-1 Norwich
I said: 0-1, +0pts
Del said: 3-1, +0pts
Rami said: 2-0, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 1-0, +0pts

Stoke 1-0 Fulham
I said: 1-1, +0pts
Del said: 2-0, +1pt
Rami said: 1-1, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 1-0, +3pts

Wigan 3-2 Reading
I said: 2-2, +0pts
Del said: 2-1, +1pt
Rami said: 1-1, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 1-1, +0pts

Aston Villa 0-0 Arsenal
I said: 0-3, +0pts
Del said: 1-2, +0pts
Rami said: 1-3, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 0-2, +0pts

Swansea 0-0 Liverpool
I said: 1-2, +0pts
Del said: 2-0, +0pts
Rami said: 1-2, +0pts
Predicts Pro said: 1-2, +0pts

Predicts Pro
Correct results- 4
Perfect scorelines- 1, Stoke 1-0 Fulham
Points- 7
 
Del
Correct results- 5
Perfect scorelines- 0
Points- 5
 
Rami
Correct results- 3
Perfect scorelines- 0
Points- 3
 
Me
Correct results- 2
Perfect scorelines- 0
Points- 2
 
 
Congratulations to 'Predictions Pro' who is this week's prediction master, by name and nature, and is the only one of us to guess a perfect scoreline. Well done to Del, who finished runner up, Rami came 3rd and I'm last.
 
Not good. I need to sort my predictions out for next time...


Friday 23 November 2012

My Premiership predictions- 23/11/12

I've got a new contenstant joining me this week for my predictions game for gameweek 12, Predictions Pro has sent in his verdicts, alongside regulars Del, and Rami El Chamaa, the creator of football blog 'foot and ball'.

It's probably worth noting that an entertaining 35 goals were scored last weekend, in a round of matches that involved some breathtaking matches featuring Arsenal's 5-2 derby triumph of Tottenham, a massive win for Southampton down at the bottom and shock defeats for United and Chelsea. Here's to some more of the same.
 
The matches this week look equally as promising. In the relegation battle, Southampton look to build on their crucial win at QPR last time out when they entertain Newcastle, Wigan will want to put as much space between themselves and the drop zone as possible when they play Reading, but Villa, who are on the same number of points as the Royals attempt to climb out of the relegation zone but could have a difficult time when they host Arsenal, who will buoyant of course, after the 5-2 derby victory.
 
That result might just have knocked Tottenham Hotspurs back a peg, but they have the opportunity to put that right in their second derby match of the week, this time against West Ham, a fixture on Saturday sees a team with one of the best defensive records in the league, Stoke play Fulham, who are amongst the highest-scorers, Brendan Rodgers returns to Swansea, this time as manager of Liverpool but both teams are off the back of positive results, Everton need to bounce back from defeat at Reading last week but they've got a potentially tricky match against in-form Norwich, who don't seem to be giving many goals away of late.
 
Baring the chance of a sensational and unexpected result against managerless QPR, Manchester United fans will expect to be top of the table on Saturday night but City make the trip down to London the day after to play Chelsea, of whom Rafael Benitez has recently been appointed manager, and will hope to get off to a good start.
 
Here's my predictions:

Sunderland vs. West Brom
 
Considering that Chelsea have got to play a much tougher team in Man City this weekend, funnily enough West Brom fans might actually fancy themselves to leapfrog them into 3rd place.
 
I don't want to seem too negative, but I doubt Steve Clarke's honeymoon period in charge of West Brom can last much longer. It's almost like it's been too good to be true for them, I feel like there's a stage coming up for the Baggies where they get a bit of a reality check.
 
It looked to me like Sunderland's wonderful 3-1 win at Fulham - who have normally got such a good home record - was a sign of things to come for the Black Cats. Players like Sessegnon and Fletcher look to be coming back into form on that performance which will be key to their season. I would be surprised if such an anomalie of a result like that, considering how few goals Sunderland scored beforehand, would be followed up by a poor performance the next match.
 
I think O'Neill will have Sunderland well psyched up for this one so I'm going to go against the form West Brom are in and say Sunderland can bring them down to earth and win 2-1.
 
Del says: 0-1
Rami says: 1-0
Predictions Pro says: "both teams have demonstrated they are hard to beat and very organised, but I think Sunderland may just sneak another win here." 2-1

 
Everton vs. Norwich
 
Everton won't have it easy in this match. Norwich are on a really good run of form, in fact the last time they lost a game was early October- and that was away to Chelsea. What's been key to this unbeaten run has been their defence, they're starting to build a very solid, well organised defence under Chris Hughton, and they've conceded just 1 goal in their last 5 Premiership matches. Very impressive, you have to say, for a team that's only been promoted in the last couple of years and have had to deal with a new manager change. All credit to Chris.
 
I'm unsure about Everton. I just wonder whether the whole issue with Fellaini publicly saying he wants to leave for a bigger club might have upset the team a little bit, because their performance in the defeat to Reading last week simply wasn't as good as what they'd been producing of late. Although he's Everton's best player, I would say Moyes just needs to sell Fellaini quickly, and replace him quickly so the effect on the team isn't prelonged- hopefully he can get at least £20 million for the Belgian.
 
My 'psychic vision' for this match actually points towards a Norwich win. It would be grossly unfair of Everton to underestimated the Canaries, who have already beaten Man United and Arsenal in recent weeks, and they just don't look like they'll be broken down. When you're defence is playing with the amount of strength and solidity that Norwich's is at the moment, it's always gonna give you're strikers a boost. 1-0 to the Canaries.

Del says: 3-1
Rami says: 2-0
Predictions Pro says: "Everton don't fill me with confidence when considering their squad depth, but I still think they will find the win." 1-0


Man Utd vs. QPR

I think I'd be needlessly losing myself points if I said I could see past a Manchester United win here. At the time of writing, Fernandes has literally just sacked ex-United favourite Hughes, who after a summer of heavy spending, had leaded the team to amass just 4pts from 11 games and sit bottom of the table. What's more, the likes of Mark Bowen and Niedzwiecki can only be considered interim managers until QPR can appoint Harry Redknapp, I think having interim joint-managers will introduce a temporary feel to the club, which won't create a honeymoon period with the team in my opinion.
 
It might be worth knowing that Man United have lost their last two games, at Norwich the week before and at Galatasaray, but I don't think that'll bear much significance- Ferguson was right to rest the first team in Turkey with them already through, and if anything, the Norwich game should spark a reaction from the team. Whenever United lose they always bounce back in their next match.
 
QPR might not score many goals, but they also concede a lot of goals at the other end (hence they are bottom of the table) and I don't think their leaky defence can cope with United's firepower in Rooney, RVP and also Chicharito off the bench, so this is an easy decision for me. I'm going to go as far as 5-0, in a match that sees van Persie get a brace and Manchester United return to the top of the table.

Del says: 2-0
Rami says: 5-1
Predictions Pro says: "Some teams lose a game, and we predict a bad spell, but when United lose one, I never envy the team they come up against next." 4-0

 
Stoke vs. Fulham

You only need know that Stoke have only conceded one goal at home this season to know what a fortress the Britannia stadium is. Teams just hate playing there, they've always had a strong home record over the past 3/4 seasons they've been in the Premiership and their ability to grind out wins on home turf (or home mud I should say) has been what's more than kept them in the league and why I'll predict they will stay up this season.
 
Not an easy task then for Fulham, but the Cottagers are the joint-2nd-highest goalscorers in the league on their away record, so Stoke's tough defence shouldn't expect to have things all their own way. Martin Jol's side do need to get over a slightly disgruntling 3-1 home defeat to Sunderland last week, but I think they can do that by picking up a positive point away from home at a place like Stoke. 1 apiece.
 
Del says: 2-0
Rami says: 1-1
Predictions Pro says: "Never a lot of goals in a tie like this, so I will go for a tight home win." 1-0

 
Wigan vs. Reading
 
A pretty big game for both teams in terms of the battle to beat the drop, or in Wigan's case, the battle to avoid the battle to beat the drop. A couple of weeks ago, the Latics won at Spurs and looked to be set for the glamour of midtable obscurity, but a couple of defeats, firstly and in disappointing manner at home to West Brom and 3-0 against Liverpool the week after that, has dragged them a step closer in the direction of the relegation dogfight. I just have a feeling though, the inconsistent lot they are, that Wigan'll put in a good performance against Reading, because they rarely lose several games on the trot.
 
Reading got that all-important first win of the season over Everton last week thanks to an Adam Le Fondre-devised turnaround, and I reckon they've got their just rewards for roundly good performances so far this season. It'd have been a shame if they had to wait until December for that first win, because I don't think that would've been enough to keep them up for all their endeavors. They've got that confidence booster now which should help them going into this match.
 
On the whole, I'm leaning towards a high-scoring draw for this one. Wigan can play some pretty football when they want to and Reading have got a relatively weak defence so I could see a couple of goals for them, but with the attacking options the Royals have got I could see someone like Pogrebnyak coming off the bench and nicking a point for them. 2-2.

Del says: 2-1
Rami says: 1-1
Predictions Pro says: "I think the teams will even themselves out; there's actually not much between them." 1-1

 
Aston Villa vs. Arsenal
 
That 5-2 win over Tottenham last week will give Arsenal a massive lift going into this game. The confidence you can get from beating you're rivals so compoundingly can be transformative, a bit like it was last season for the Gunners, so Villa would probably want to rearrange the fixture list- they couldn't have picked a worse time to play Arsenal.
 
If I'm judging this with no bias at all, I do think Villa will stay up. Many Blues fans, my brother included, are jumping up and down and gloating at the fact that Villa are in the relegation zone. I think a lot of that is to cover up how badly Blues are doing in the Championship, it's a bit of sour grapes so as much as I don't like to say it, Villa fans should take that with a pinch of salt to be honest. They were very unlucky to lose to Man United and from what I'd seen of their first half, didn't deserve to lose 5-0 at City.
 
The crunch games for Villa really come in the next few weeks against Reading, QPR and Stoke. I reckon if they can only manager 2pts or less from those 3 games, then I'd probably reconsider Villa's position and they might go down, but at the moment I'd grudgingly back them to stay up.
 
In terms of Saturday though, Arsenal will be in buoyant mood after the Spurs win and Giroud is starting to look a real player for them- people were judging him far too early and now he's had a bit of time to get used to this level, I think he can make a big contribution to the Gunner's season. I can see a comfortable 3-0 away win for Arsenal, but it's not time for Villa fans to push the panic button just yet.

Del says: 1-2
Rami says: 1-3
Predictions Pro says: "Villa have proven they can be resilient in defence, but not over 90 minutes. I predict an Arsenal win." 0-2

 
Swansea vs. Liverpool

Brendan Rodgers returns to his old stomping ground and I hope he gets a warm reception. He did a lot for Swansea getting them into the Premier League and stabilising them there, he took on a bit of a poisoned chalice at Liverpool but they were, and are, the bigger club. Any manager who values ambition over loyalty would have taken that job and I can certainly understand why he did it.
 
I say this cautiously, because Liverpool have been rather inconsistent this season and are arguably besides QPR, the underachievers of the Premiership season season so far, but things do, at last, look to be moving in the right direction for him and Liverpool. They were pretty good value for a point at Chelsea a couple of weeks back and they followed that result up with a solid and impressive home win over Wigan. They've got favourable fixtures going into the new year as well and if they can put a run together then who knows? They might begin to table a decent bid for 5th place, but they need to get some momentum going if they want to do so.
 
Swansea have humbled their doubters so far this season, who have suggested they might go down following Rodger's departure, but they sit proudly in 10th place after a win at Newcastle last week- some 7pts away from the relegation zone. I'm sure they'll be fine this season, Laudrup has kept the style of football they played last season which has proved to be just as successful this, and Michu is continuing to shine.
 
I'm therefore not having an easy time calling it, especially with it being played at the Liberty stadium, but I think I'll go for a narrow Liverpool win. Suarez and Michu to get on the scoresheet- 1-2.

Del says: 2-0
Rami says: 1-2
Predictions Pro says: "I have a sneaky feeling it could be one of those games that Liverpool don't play particularly well in, but end up winning." 1-2


Southampton vs. Newcastle

Given these teams respective league positions, I would understand if there are a few eyebrows raised at how certain I am Southampton will win this, but the events of the past couple of weeks don't work in Newcastle's favour at all.
 
Firstly, they've got 10 players ruled out including Cabaye, Ben Arfa, Coloccini, Cisse... apart from Demba Ba these are basically are all of Newcastle's key players. Also, the few players in the squad will have had just a three days rest after the Europa League game against Maritimo on Thursday. Finally, they've lost their last two Premiership matches, at home to West Ham and Swansea. Given everything that they're having to deal with, I don't think they'll be feeling particularly confident.
 
Southampton, on the other hand, have had to deal with no injuries to key players and that win away to QPR last week, being able to score three goals as well, will give the team such a lift I could see them knocking a few past Newcastle to reward the fans' faith in Nigel Adkins. A bit of an extravagant prediction I know, but I'm going to go 3-0.
 
Del says: 0-2
Rami says: 2-1
Predictions Pro says: "Southampton's win against QPR was huge for them, a massive result and one which will help settle some nerves." 2-1
 
 
Tottenham vs. West Ham

I do worry for Tottenham that Andre Villas-Boas is struggling to gain the respect of his team. They've put in some disjointed performances lately but the 5-2 defeat at Arsenal will have really put the Portuguese in the firing line. I wouldn't want to see him get sacked but it all depends on whether the team is motivated to play for him, they don't look it at the moment and if there is a rift in the dressing room then Tottenham shouldn't continue to wear a shoe that doesn't fit them, so to speak.
 
West Ham are going well at the moment, and the timings of this London derby seems to have worked out very much in their favour- in fact they've only lost twice in the Premiership since August! Needless to say, they are very difficult to break down and I'm not sure Tottenham are playing with enough confidence to do that. Will say an even game finishes in a 1-1 draw.
 
Del says: 4-2
Rami says: 2-0
Predictions Pro says: "I struggle to see the direction AVB is taking them in, but I think the priority is bringing in another striker, and then we will see a better reflection of where they are heading." 2-1
 
 
Chelsea vs. Man City

 
(see previous article for full match preview)
I say: 1-3
Del says: 2-3
Rami says: 1-2
Predictions Pro says: "Flip a coin on this one. It will be open, all over the place, and anyone’s game." 2-2
 
Those are the games. My thanks to Del, Rami and Predictions Pro for your scores, I wish you all a good weekend.