Friday 31 January 2014

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: 1st February

Premier League

The key Premier League game comes on Monday night, as Man City look to continue their 100% home record against  fellow title-contenders Chelsea. There is a north-east derby as Sunderland look to continue their revival under Poyet at Newcastle, while Cardiff desperately need their first league win under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at home to Norwich.

Newcastle vs. Sunderland
Yohan Cabaye
Newcastle have picked up a reasonable four points from their away trips to West Ham and Norwich. Their problem now is that they have let go of Yohan Cabaye, and might have to wait until the summer to sign a good midfield player. No sensible club is going to let a high quality midfielder go at this stage in the January window, no matter what the price. Gus Poyet has worked a miracle at Sunderland, taking them out of the relegation zone for the first time with a win on Wednesday. They are picking up some great results at the moment, and particularly Adam Johnson looks on a rich vein of form. Sunderland can pick up a point from the Tyne-Wear derby. 1-1.

West Ham vs. Swansea
Mark Noble
This match will present as big contrast in playing styles as we’ll see this season. West Ham had just one shot on target and 28% possession at Chelsea, they to defend deep and frustrate them, managing to pick up a point. Swansea, by contrast, have the highest average possession % in the Premier League. They won their last match 2-0 against Fulham, which put them five points clear of the relegation places. Swansea have had an extra day to prepare, whereas West Ham will have to recover quickly from a tough match against Chelsea. You can bet Swansea will have more of the ball, and they might make that count. 1-2.

Cardiff vs. Norwich
Kenwyne Jones
This is a massive game for Cardiff, after Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has lost his first three league games in charge. They have brought in Kenwyne Jones from Stoke as part of a swap deal with Peter Odemwingie. That might give them some experience up front, which could be key, with just seventeen goals scored so far. Norwich have added experience themselves, but to the defence, with Joseph Yobo coming in. They have kept two consecutive clean sheets at home, which suggests they are improving at the back. A point would do nicely for Norwich, but Cardiff have not won in the league since mid-December, and are in desperate need of three. 1-1.

Everton vs. Aston Villa
Gabriel Agbonlahor
Both teams come into the game after a surprising result in their local derby. Everton lost 4-0 to Liverpool on Wednesday and that will be a big blow in their top four aspirations. They looked disorganized defensively and, on this occasion, Roberto Martinez’s preference for attacking fullbacks cost them, because there was so much space in behind. Aston Villa could take advantage of that strategy too, as Lambert’s side always look to play on the counter attack, although they will be without the pace of Gabriel Agbonlahor. Their 4-3 win over Birmingham rivals West Brom provided an end-to-end classic, and Villa did well to come back into the game after going two goals behind early on. Everton have only lost once at home this season, but they may drop two points here. 2-2.

Fulham vs. Southampton
Dimitar Berbatov
Fulham have not taken any points since their win over West Ham on New Years’ Day, and now they have lost Dimitar Berbatov on loan to Monaco. You would think their next few home games are going to be vital, but the following five at Craven Cottage are all against top half opponents, which makes Meulensteen’s job hard. Southampton battled to a draw against Arsenal on Tuesday, and possibly could have won the game at the end. It does not seem as though the issue with Pablo Osvaldo and Jose Fonte has affected the team, as Osvaldo has been left out, and looks likely to leave for Juventus. Fulham however, are stuck in a worrying cycle of defeats. With Man United away next week, the games are not going to get any easier. 1-2.

Nabil Bentaleb
Hull vs. Tottenham
Hull will play this match with a reserve goalkeeper. After Allan McGregor’s red card against Crystal Palace, Eldin Jakupovic has been recalled from Leyton Orient to cover for his suspension. Although they have won both cup games, the Tigers have not taken any points since their 6-0 victory over Fulham before New Year. Tottenham lost their first league game under Tim Sherwood, with a 5-1 home defeat to Manchester City. Sherwood’s gung-ho mentality cost them in that game. They played without a proper holding midfielder, both Dembele and Bentaleb like to break forward, and that is never a good idea when faced with the City’s attacking quality. However, against a team like Hull they can afford to be more ambitious going forward. 1-2.

Stoke vs. Man Utd
John Guidetti
Like Hull, Stoke are on a bit of a slump, having taken just one point from six games since Christmas Day. Mark Hughes seems to refuse to field Man City loanee John Guidetti, yet they are clearly in need of goals, failing to score for the eleventh time this season at Crystal Palace. The arrival of Juan Mata looks to have boosted Man United, he seemed to have a great game in a free midfield role. His quality brought the best out of United’s other players too, and could help them move towards the top four. 0-2.


Daniel Sturridge
West Brom vs. Liverpool
The team Man United will have to beat to get there, it seems, is Liverpool. The Reds came out with a 4-0 victory in the Merseyside Derby, and have won five of their six games since the turn of the year. Daniel Sturridge scored twice on Tuesday, taking him to an impressive total of sixteen goals already this season, and is benefitting from playing alongside Suarez. West Brom are yet another team struggling on a poor run of form. Defeat to Aston Villa, despite an early two-goal lead, means they are just three points above the drop zone. What’s more, three of their next four home games are Liverpool, Chelsea and Man United. It will be difficult for the Baggies to pick up points at this stage. 0-2.

Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
Mikel Arteta
Crystal Palace’s revival under Tony Pulis has been remarkable, but this should be a comfortable win for Arsenal. It’s a game they will be expected to dominate possession, with Mikel Arteta instigating the attacks. Crystal Palace got a 1-0 win over Hull on Tuesday, but away from home they have not done so well, losing four of their last five. They have signed Tom Ince on loan from Blackpool, which will give them some pace going forward, and it’s a big opportunity for Ince to prove himself, after going off the boil in the Championship in recent weeks. Palace will try to stay organized and you would imagine they’ll play much like West Ham did at Chelsea the other night, but Arsenal should have the creativity to break them down. 2-0.

Man City vs. Chelsea
Jose Mourinho
Man City barely need to make any changes from the side which won 5-1 at Tottenham. Perhaps Aguero will be out due to injury, but Dzeko and Negredo have already proved they can form a great strike partnership. Chelsea dropped two points at home to West Ham in midweek. Jose Mourinho criticized Sam Allardyce for playing ‘19th century football’, but that is perhaps a diversion tactic, to hide the fact that Chelsea failed to break them down. Manchester City have only failed to win two games since mid-November. Even without Aguero, and even against fellow title-contenders Chelsea, their 100% home record cannot be ignored. 2-1.

The Championship
The big game this weekend, is between QPR and Burnley. QPR look to cement their place in the top two, while Burnley will want to prove that their promotion ambitions are not over, after dropped points at home. There are two Yorkshire derbies, one between midtable sides Leeds and Huddersfield, and one relegation contenders clash, as Sheffield Wednesday host Barnsley. 

QPR vs. Burnley
Kieran Trippier
This is the first of three crucial games for QPR, against Derby, Reading, and Burnley on Saturday. You would think they would have the experience in their squad to handle the big game pressure, yet Harry Redknapp’s side have already lost to Leicester, Forest, and away to Burnley back in October. The Clarets have just dropped four points from two home games, and perhaps this could be the time that the lack of proven quality in their squad shows. Burnley have got this far by being able to defend deep for much of a game and then nick a goal through Ings or Vokes. QPR are likely to have a lot of the ball, and eventually their quality will come to the fore. 2-1.

Birmingham vs. Derby
Aaron Martin
Every time Birmingham play at home, the stat gets worse and worse - they have not won at St Andrews for four months now. It is difficult to see that changing on Saturday, as they play a Derby side who are the Championship’s away specialists, taking twenty-seven points from fourteen games on the road. Thanks to two goals in the final three minutes, the Rams completed a dramatic 3-2 win over Yeovil Town, in a game they had thirty-six shots. The fact that they kept going to the end is testament to the energy of Derby’s midfield, with Will Hughes and Craig Bryson providing an attacking threat. Derby might overload Birmingham in the centre, and in defence, Blues have had to act quickly to bring in centre-back Aaron Martin, after Kyle Bartley was recalled. Their back line will take time to settle, and Derby will take advantage. 1-3.

Blackburn vs. Blackpool
Jason Lowe
Blackpool suffered a 5-1 defeat at Reading on Tuesday, and it looks as though the Tangerine plummet is continuing, despite the change of manager. Thankfully for them, none of the bottom five teams won, so Barry Ferguson’s new side remain nine points clear of the drop, although they have played two games more than most. Surprisingly, Blackburn had the majority of possession in their 2-2 draw at Barnsley, despite the fact that they only tend to play with four in midfield, to Barnsley’s five. The Rovers have won half their games at Ewood Park this season, and if Blackpool’s current run of form is anything to go by, this will be another home victory. 2-0.

Bournemouth vs. Leicester
Marc Pugh
Bournemouth are starting to pick up some good results at home. Their FA Cup defeat to Liverpool was only one loss in their last six at Dean Court, and in their last match against Huddersfield, they picked up another three points towards midtable security. But this is the kind of away game that Leicester will prefer in the second half of the season, because the teams down the bottom will be fighting for their lives. With QPR playing Burnley in the early game, the Foxes can potentially go fourteen points clear of third place – albeit QPR and Burnley both have a game in hand on them. Leicester were passing the ball with Premier League quality at Birmingham, particularly in the first half, and they should cruise to the finish line now. 0-2.

Doncaster vs. Middlesbrough
Paul Dickov
Doncaster are enjoying a resurgence, with 3-0 home wins over Wigan and Charlton sandwiching a point at Blackpool in the last two weeks. They dominated against Charlton with 67% possession, and their opponents did not even manage a shot on target. Paul Dickov deserves credit for getting these results after a woeful run of form recently, and the board deserve credit for standing by him. Middlesbrough kept a remarkable sixth clean sheet since mid-December, although they could not find a winner against Wigan. A problem for them now, is that key defender Rhys Williams will be out for the remainder of the season, after an Achilles’ injury. A point apiece at the Keepmoat. 1-1.

Ipswich vs. Bolton
David McGoldrick
Ipswich got a decent point away to Leeds on Tuesday. The Tractor Boys remain just four points off the play-off places, although they have won just one of their last eight, including the cup games against Preston. David McGoldrick scored for the first time in the league since his brace at Doncaster on Boxing Day, which is important for Ipswich, because they have been reliant on his goals at times this season. Bolton went down to a third consecutive defeat at QPR, and these are worrying times for the Trotters, who are just four points above the drop zone. 2-1.

Leeds vs. Huddersfield
James Vaughan
A West Yorkshire derby between two sides who are sitting slap bang midtable. Leeds ended a run of five consecutive defeats with a draw against Ipswich, but they have still not won since mid-December. In that match, Ross McCormack netted for the first time this year from the penalty spot, but he still might struggle in open play without the support of Matt Smith. Huddersfield have lost their last three after a 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth, and need Nahki Wells to follow up on his first goals for the club, because Vaughan has only scored once since early October. These are two teams in poor form, and a draw is the most likely outcome. 1-1.

Millwall vs. Reading
Adam Le Fondre
Ian Holloway has got off to a mixed start as manager of Millwall, with one defeat, one win and one draw, as the Lions are still in relegation trouble. DJ Campbell was a controversial loan choice given his alleged involvement in match fixing scandals, but he scored a late equalizer on his debut. Adam Le Fondre netted his second hat-trick in ten days during Reading’s 5-1 win over Blackpool. The striking thing about that result, was that their opponents actually had most of the ball, but could only get two shots on target, which suggests Reading were well organized and able to break quickly. If Holloway chooses to attack Reading, his side could pay for it at the back. 1-3.

Sheff Wed vs. Barnsley
Benik Afobe
Another Yorkshire derby, only this one has a lot more significance, as both teams are looking to avoid the drop. Sheffield Wednesday are looking the more likely at the moment. They are unbeaten in six games, having picked up good away points against Burnley and Millwall. The positive for them is that goals are coming in different areas, with Chris Maguire and Caolan Lavery scoring in recent weeks, while the arrival of Benik Afobe can replace Connor Wickham. They are not relying on one star man. Barnsley have shown signs of life recently, and have not been beaten in the league since the turn of the year. Loanee Nick Proschwitz scored on his debut in the draw with Blackburn, while the loan signing of Jack Hunt from Palace will be of benefit, because they have struggled for fullbacks this season. 1-0.

Wigan vs. Charlton
Dale Stephens
What are Charlton doing? They look as though they are going to sell two of their best players, Yann Kermorgant and Dale Stephens, and bring in a whole host of players from Standard Liege, who new chairman Roland Duchatelet also owns. It does not take a genius to guess that this was probably not a decision made by Chris Powell, as Duchatelet is notorious for interfering with the playing side. This does not bode well for Charlton’s relegation battle, and on Saturday they play a Wigan side who have only lost one game since the arrival of Uwe Rosler. They drew 0-0 at Middlesbrough, but the Latics could do with a striker, because their highest scoring out-and-out forward is Marc-Antoine Fortune, and he has only netted three times. Still, this game, against an unsettled Charlton side, will be no problem. 2-0.

Nottm Forest vs. Yeovil
Rafik Djebbour
Surrendering a 2-0 lead at Derby, and conceding two late goals to lose 3-2, will be a massive kick in the teeth for Yeovil. It will be a massive achievement if they can recover from that to stay up, but it would be sensible to say that at six points, the gap could be too wide. Nottingham Forest will have had to play their match, against Watford, two days later than Yeovil, but they have a lot of quality in their team. Billy Davies finally got his target of a striker in the January window, and Rafik Djebbour could be a good signing. The Algerian has scored thirty-nine goals in fifty-six games for Olympiakos, and his goals could be key, because Forest have struggled to keep their forwards fit this season. 2-0.

Watford vs. Brighton

Daniel Tozser
Watford will have played Nottingham Forest on Thursday night, and will have had three days to prepare for this match, rather than Brighton’s five. They’ve signed midfielder Daniel Tozser on loan from Genoa, yet the Hornets already have seven players in the squad who are capable of playing in the centre, so that seems like a strange move. Brighton, meanwhile, kept their eighth away clean sheet of the season in a 0-0 draw at Burnley. Watford have brought a few new players in since Sannino took over and they will take time to settle, so Brighton might put in a typically organized, resolute away performance and pinch three points towards their play-off ambitions. 0-1.

Follow me on twitter @_thescore

Wednesday 29 January 2014

The Leicester View

Before Birmingham City's match against Leicester, I interviewed Jack Munton, who has been a season ticket holder at Leicester for four years. You can follow Jack on Twitter @Jack_Munton. He discusses the factors behind Leicester’s great first half of the season, who their best players are, and gives his thoughts on foreign owners in football.

Nigel Pearson
At the time of writing, you’re five points clear at the top of the league, and have won your last five. What’s gone right?
Although we’re now 8 points clear after last season it was important we kept our squad together and add some experience. We clearly had a talented bunch and together they’ve learnt and matured. The experience has pushed that bit further and the players complement each other to challenge every opponent.

Your team this season seems very similar to what it was last year, no major changes. Has a summer of stability helped?
Absolutely, if players stay together they can only improve. As I’ve said we had a talented squad last season and this season they’ve developed together to create what most managers call the best team in the division.

Vichai Srivaddh- err... Leicester's chairman
What do you make of your chairman, Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha? Your thoughts on foreign owners in football?
Our owners have been brilliant for our club as a whole. They’ve revamped the training ground and more recently wiped out our debt. After a couple of years of heavy investment they didn’t make any progress and could have easily walked away. The fact they stayed and continued to develop our club shows their commitment to succeed. Foreign owners are a mixed bag. You will always get the owners who will cause problems but some always try and spoil it for others. If their heart is in the right place and they do genuinely want to succeed, I don’t see a problem with them.

Since Martin O’Neill left almost fifteen years ago, you’ve been through the managers very quickly. Is that something that needs to change?
I think that’s the same across the top 4 divisions. Stability is the key to success generally. Unfortunately too many clubs pull the trigger to early or they make the wrong appointment in the first place. Nigel Pearson is a perfect example; after winning league 1 with us he then guided us to the Play Offs to suffer the first of our disappointments before leaving for hull. After switching managers around a year we ended up with Pearson back at the helm. I could sit here and wonder where we would be if Pearson never left, that’s irrelevant in our current position now though.

One thing both Birmingham and Leicester have in common is that we’ve both never won the FA Cup. Does it annoy you when managers play a weakened side, given what it means to fans?
In some terms yes it does. We lost at Stoke where quite a few of us travelled agreed we probably would of won the match if we had started with David Nugent and Lloyd Dyer, who came on towards the end when we had a hold of the game. However, managers have priorities which I do understand.

Paul Konchesky
If you do go up, how would you assess your squad’s chances in the Premier League and which areas need strengthening?
If we strengthen the right areas I feel we have an excellent chance IF we do go up. Most fans would agree we would need a left back with Konchesky getting towards the end of his career, he would be a good squad player if we go up however. A proven striker would be needed to put the goals away when the chances occur. Generally we would need a stronger back up to deal with the threats in the Premier League.

Best away trip of the season so far?
Cup games generally make great away games and my favourites this season would be Carlisle away in the league cup and Stoke in the FA Cup. But, after what happened last season I’d probably go for Watford away due to the atmosphere and Knockaert getting his revenge on the pitch.

Jamie Vardy
Who are your key players Birmingham need to watch out for?
There are 3 or 4 players who should be watched when we attack. Dyer and Vardy both have blistering pace and travel around defenders always need to be one step ahead. Knockaert can work wonders with the ball and it is always worth been cautious around him. Then if there are 10 minutes to go at 0-0 Kevin Phillips will always be there to poke it in.

Cheers for answering our questions. Your score prediction?
We have equalled our longest ever winning streak and I know Birmingham’s home form has been very poor so I won’t be surprised if Birmingham nick it. I’ll go for 2-0 Leicester.


My thanks to Jack Munton for his answers.

Tuesday 28 January 2014

Gabriel's Midweek Predictions: 28th Jan

Premier League
In this midweek round of games, the key fixture is definitely Tottenham against Man City, as the Premier League’s two form teams go head-to-head. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer returns to Old Trafford as manager of Cardiff, and the other two of last season’s promoted clubs, Crystal Palace and Hull, play each other, both having surpassed expectations, finding themselves outside the relegation zone. There’s a Midlands derby as Aston Villa look to correct their atrocious home form against West Brom, now with Pepe Mel in charge, while Arsenal have a potentially difficult game away to Southampton.

Man Utd vs. Cardiff
Juan Mata is Manchester United’s record signing, and will be available to play in this match. He will not solve all of United’s problems in midfield, because they are still in need of a physical presence in the centre, a midfield general who will boss games. The signing has a slight feel of desperation to it, and you get a feeling that Mourinho has got the better end of the deal than Moyes. That signing pushes Wilfried Zaha further away from the first team picture, as he and Fabio Da Silva look likely to join United’s next opponents, Cardiff City. The South Wales club are now bottom of the table on goal difference, but only one point off safety. Like Mata, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is a man who will get a warm reception when he arrives at Old Trafford,  but no points. 2-0.

Norwich vs. Newcastle
Both teams have been given the weekend off, after they went out of the FA Cup in the third round. Norwich picked up a 1-0 win over Hull last time out, thanks to a late goal from the unlikely source of Ryan Bennett. The fact that such an important goal came from a centre-back, sums up their season so far. They have not scored enough goals, considering how much they have spent on strikers this summer. Only two teams have won more away matches than Newcastle, who picked up a sixth win on the road at West Ham. However, Yohan Cabaye, who netted a brace in that match, looks likely to join PSG. There are only four days left of the transfer window, and the club have some difficult decisions to make. They will want to haggle and get the best possible price for Cabaye, but also give themselves enough time to secure a replacement. He has been such a key player, you would worry for Newcastle without him in the team. 1-1.

Southampton vs. Arsenal
It seems surprising that Arsene Wenger risked fielding key players against League One opposition in the FA Cup, given that this is such a close title race. They play away to a Southampton side who are unbeaten in four in all forms, and by contrast, were able to change almost their entire team for the visit of Yeovil on Saturday. The main concern for the Saints is they have banned striker Osvaldo, who was their record signing this summer, for starting a training ground fight with team-mate Jose Fonte. Southampton have shown that they have a squad with a strong mentality though, and seem to be rarely affected by off-field issues. When they controversially changed their manager last season, and when their chairman stepped down, they have tended to respond positively so they might grab a point with home advantage. 1-1.

Swansea vs. Fulham
A replay against Sheffield United on a week night is the last thing Fulham need. With twelve members of the squad in their thirties, an injury crisis is something Rene Meulensteen must be careful to avoid, with his side involved in such a close relegation battle. Swansea are in danger of going down as well, but they reached the fifth round of the cup after victory at Birmingham. The Swans play three of the bottom four in the next two weeks, which is a crucial run of games, and they must be looking to win at least two of those. By mid-February, they will be involved in three competitions which will provide a challenge for their squad, with the Europa League starting up again. Next month will be a difficult one for both clubs. 1-1.

Crystal Palace vs. Hull
Remarkably, Crystal Palace are out of the relegation zone, and those saying they were certainties for relegation must accept a slice of humble pie. Tony Pulis has massively improved their performances at home, as they have only lost one of their last six at Selhurst Park. Palace’s home form does not bode well for Hull, given their abysmal away record. Steve Bruce’s side have taken just two points from their last eight games on the road, losing to Norwich last time out. The Tigers will have Tom Huddlestone back for this match, which is important, because he is a key player for them in midfield. These two teams tend to have very little of the ball in games, and naturally spend a lot of time soaking up pressure. There won’t be many goals. 1-0.

Liverpool vs. Everton
A Merseyside derby with huge significance, as both teams eye a Champions League spot. Liverpool put in a mediocre performance when they won at Bournemouth in the FA Cup, despite playing a number of first choice players, such as Suarez, Gerrard and Skrtel. Roberto Martinez took a slightly more pragmatic approach at Stevenage, with Coleman, Distin and Lukaku rested. Over the last twelve times this fixture has been played, there have been just twenty goals, but arguably that had a lot to do with David Moyes’ mentality as the visiting manager. He set his team up to simply not get beaten, but there is no doubt Roberto Martinez will go there trying to attack Liverpool. If the 3-3 draw at Goodison back in November is anything to go by, this will be an entertaining game. 2-2.

Aston Villa vs. West Brom
Aston Villa’s problem at the moment is that they cannot win at home. They have taken just two points from their last five at Villa Park, and recently fell out of the FA Cup there to League One Sheffield United. West Brom drew their first game under Pepe Mel at home to Everton, which was not a bad start. In the first half, Everton dominated them in possession but they showed character to fight back and gain a point with fifteen minutes to go. A new manager always tends to bring the best out of a team - the likes of Fulham, Palace and Tottenham have all seen a quick improvement in results since changing their boss. Given Villa’s home woes, this could be an away win. 1-2.

Chelsea vs. West Ham
With Nemanja Matic giving Chelsea a much-needed physical presence in midfield, Jose Mourinho now has a very strong squad. He made a few changes for the FA Cup match against Stoke, but the drop off in quality was barely noticeable and with Mohammed Salah coming in to replace Mata, Chelsea have now added extra width. West Ham have conceded twenty-eight goals in their last nine games. The arrival of Nocerino from Milan might give them some extra defensive protection in midfield. He might not be too highly rated in Italy, but Allardyce would not be able to attract a player of his experience if he was. West Ham have also signed Marco Borriello from Roma which makes sense, because they cannot rely on Andy Carroll, given his fitness problems. The Hammers have three winnable home games coming up in February, but are unlikely to gain anything from their trip across London. 2-0.

Sunderland vs. Stoke
Four of Sunderland’s last six games have been cup matches, which in other circumstances would perhaps be an unnecessary distraction, but in this case it seems to have given them confidence. If you include their shoot-out win against Manchester United, the Black Cats have won five of their last six, but just need to convert that to their league form. Stoke have the worst away record in the Premier League, and have only scored once in their last six on the road. They need a finisher, and there are question marks as to whether Peter Crouch’s ability to win headers and get flick-ons compensate for his lack of goals. Sunderland would go just one point behind Stoke with a win, and the momentum they have generated, they might well do that. 2-0.

Tottenham vs. Man City
Spurs have been fantastic since Tim Sherwood took over, while Manchester City look to be putting their away problems to bed, with five wins from their last seven on the road. One problem for City is injuries. They will be without key attacking players in Silva, Negredo and Nasri, who they have been quite reliant on, whereas Spurs have got most of their wins without Townsend, Paulinho and Vertonghen, who may or may not return for this match. Both Adebayor and Soldado could give the often vulnerable Demichelis something to think about at centre-back. Throw in the fact that unlike City, Tottenham have had the weekend off to prepare for this match, and you’ve got a surprise result on the cards. 1-0.

The Championship
The big game in the Championship on Tuesday night, comes at the Keepmoat, as there is a crucial game at the bottom between Doncaster and Charlton. Leicester are the only one of the top six who will not have home advantage, but they play a Birmingham side who rarely win at home. Derby will look to reproduce their form of a few weeks ago when they face Yeovil, who are joint-bottom of the table, but have shown signs of life in recent weeks. 

Barnsley vs. Blackburn
Barnsley are five points adrift of safety, but they have games in hand on Millwall and Doncaster, and beat Blackpool 2-0 in their last match. That was their first win under Danny Wilson, who seems to have at least made them more solid at the back, with just four goals conceded from five games. That defensive improvement also coincides with Jean Yves M’Voto being out of the team due to injury, with Peter Ramage coming in and doing well. Wilson might not be so keen to force M’Voto back in. Blackburn conceded a late equalizer against Derby on Saturday, having had just 38% possession. Blackburn do not have much quality in the middle, and might get overrun by Barnsley, who tend to play with a midfield five. The Tykes will battle for a win here. 2-1.

Birmingham vs. Leicester
A team who don’t know how to win, against a team who cannot stop. Birmingham have not won at home in the league for four months, while Leicester have won their last seven. To make matters worse for the hosts, they will be without captain Paul Robinson due to suspension, without Dan Burn who has recently been recalled from his loan spell, while Kyle Bartley will play only his first game back after injury. A very bad situation to be in, when playing a Leicester side who are often clinical in the forward areas. Jamie Vardy’s relentless pace could be a big problem, against a potentially slow defence. Playing at home is not even an advantage for Birmingham at the moment, so this is the easiest call of the week. 1-3.

Bournemouth vs. Huddersfield
Two well-run clubs, in a similar lower mid-table position, who look capable of sustaining themselves in the Championship over the next few years. Bournemouth have not won in the league since Boxing Day, but they have not lost too many either. The Cherries put in an encouraging first half performance against Liverpool in the FA Cup, and it was only in the second that Liverpool’s quality showed. Huddersfield do not tend to do so well away from home, they have only taken one point from their last four on the road. Nahki Wells was rested in the cup against Charlton and could start for the second time, having already netted twice for his new side. There is not much to separate these two. 1-1.

Burnley vs. Brighton
Burnley have not been beaten at home this season. Five of their thirteen games at Turf Moor have ended in draws, so a combination of luck and defensive grit has seen them remain undefeated in East Lancashire. They play Brighton, who have a similar knack for getting results when they play away from home. Oscar Garcia’s side have conceded the fewest number of away goals in the Championship, having kept seven out of a possible thirteen clean sheets on the road.  Matthew Upson in particular, has put in some very consistent performances in recent weeks, and Brighton’s defence seem to have benefitted from his experience. Both teams know how to keep a clean sheet. 0-0.

Derby vs. Yeovil
After recently winning at Birmingham, Yeovil have brought Ishmael Miller back on loan from Nottingham Forest. That could be a vital signing, because in his two month spell there previously, he provided them with a touch of class in the final third, something they have been lacking deeply this season. Still, this is the first of two testing trips to the East Midlands for the Glovers. Their next opponents, Derby, have brought in a decent loan signing themselves, in Patrick Bamford. Bamford had a successful time at League One MK Dons, and looks to be settling at Championship level, with two goals already for the Rams. On the whole though, Derby have not really continued the momentum they built up until New Year - just one win in five now. 2-1.

Doncaster vs. Charlton
A crucial game for both clubs, who look to be stuck in a relegation battle this season. The two teams have suffered from a lack of goals, as only Yeovil have scored less than either of them. Doncaster could be improving defensively, they have only conceded twice in three games since the introduction of Abdoulaye Meite at centre back. Charlton, meanwhile, have been in FA Cup action, winning away to Huddersfield Town in the fourth round. Before that, they won comfortably away to Oxford, keeping a clean sheet on both occasions, which will give their defence some confidence. Because they have played more games than a lot of teams around them, this is a match Doncaster must win. They will do so, in a low-scoring affair. 1-0.

Leeds vs. Ipswich
A big problem for Leeds is that Matt Smith will be suspended for this match. Smith playing is key to getting the best out of Ross McCormack, because his height as a target man draws defenders away, which creates space for McCormack to play just behind. It could be difficult for McCormack to operate as the main striker. Ipswich got a 2-0 victory over Reading, which was their only win in seven games, and their first home win in five. The Tractor Boys remain just two points off the play-offs, but are lacking creativity in midfield. At various times this season, these teams have been talked about with regards to a possible promotion push, but a mid-table finish awaits both clubs. 1-1.

Middlesbrough vs. Wigan
Two teams who have benefitted from a change of manager this season. Both have seen improved results with a more progressive, foreign boss coming in - Karanka at Middlesbrough and Rosler at Wigan. Middlesbrough ended a run of six games unbeaten with defeat at league leaders Leicester, and did not create too much, with just the one shot on target. Wigan bounced back from a 3-0 loss at Doncaster by knocking out Premier League Crystal Palace in the FA Cup, thanks to a late goal from James McClean, who has disappointed thus far. Under their respective new managers, both teams have learnt to win games without having much possession, or dominating play. A tight game is on the cards. 1-1.

Millwall vs. Sheff Wed
If Ian Holloway can have the same impact at Millwall, as Stuart Gray has had at Sheffield Wednesday, he will be very happy. After a fine run of form since the start of December, the Owls look to be pushing further away from the relegation zone, and are enjoying a cup run to boot. Millwall are one point above the drop, and have played a game more than each of the teams below them. It makes their triumph over Ipswich last time out all the more important, winning 1-0 thanks to a fluke goal from debutant fullback Ryan Fredericks, who has joined on loan from Tottenham. A share of the points at the Den. 1-1.

QPR vs. Bolton
Bolton were unable to put the 7-1 hammering at Reading behind them in the FA Cup on Saturday, losing at home to Cardiff. They are currently just four points above the drop, having played a game extra, and have lost some goal power with David N’Gog leaving for Swansea. They are completely reliant on the consistency of Jermaine Beckford up front. QPR finally look to be taking the initiative in the promotion race, with three consecutive league wins, thanks to a few goals from top scorer Charlie Austin. This should be a routine win for the Rs. 2-0.

Reading vs. Blackpool
It was a case of ‘one step forward, one step back’ for Reading on Saturday. They lost 2-0 at Ipswich, after having won 7-1 the week before, with Adam Le Fondre doing little to build on his hat-trick. The same could be said about Blackpool, who conceded a late equalizer at home to Doncaster, in Barry Ferguson’s first match as caretaker manager. It is difficult to see Ferguson, given his distinct lack of experience in management, doing much for Blackpool long-term. If he, like a lot of managers at Bloomfield Road before him, is not backed in the transfer market, the club will not progress. However, a change of manager often brings around an instant change in results, so the Tangerines could take a valuable point from their trip to Berkshire. 1-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Watford

Nottingham Forest are unbeaten in eleven games, albeit they have drawn six of them. No Championship team has drawn more games than Forest, which suggests they are in need of a striker.  They will hope to conclude the signing of forward Rafik Djebbour from Olympiakos before the transfer window closes. He is the same player they nearly signed this summer, but the deal fell through due to him refusing to take a medical, so it is difficult to say whether Djebbour will prove successful. Judging by recent results, it looks as though Watford will spend the rest of the season midtable, having not won in the league since Boxing Day. Still, that will give Giuseppe Sannino some time to fully assess his squad without any pressure, and identify which areas he’ll need to improve in the transfer market this summer. 2-1.

Monday 27 January 2014

The Swansea View

Before Birmingham City's match against Swansea, I interviewed Steven Carroll, who has been a season ticket holder at Swansea since 1997/8. He is the editor of the fanzine, Swansea Oh Swansea’: http://sosfanzine.com/ Here, Steven gives his take on the club’s progress, the possession football philosophy, and why they still have Welsh sign posts in Wales…

Since promotion to the Premier League, you’ve had comfortable midtable finishes, played attractive football, won the League Cup and been on a European tour. The club has certainly come a long way…
You can say that again! My early years watching Swansea were pretty dreadful to be honest with not much to shout about but in 2003 when we nearly lost our Football League status, it proved to be a turning point. Since then we’ve been one of the biggest success stories you’re likely to see when you consider we’ve done it all without a rich benefactor.

You’re not in the best of form at the moment, with no league wins in eight. What has caused this?
Michel Vorm
Fixtures and injuries have played a part. In the last eight we’ve faced Everton, Chelsea, City, United and Spurs so we knew we’d be up against it in those games. The really frustrating game was Aston Villa away where we dominated from start to finish with 70% possession and still didn’t win. In terms of injuries we’ve been without Michel Vorm, Michu and Nathan Dyer for most of those games and in the last couple of weeks we’ve lost Jonathan De Guzman, Jose Canas and Jonjo Shelvey so we’re down to the bare bones in midfield. We’re due a change of luck.


You’re known to have a philosophy of possession football. Do you believe this is the way forward?
Yes it’s been the cornerstone of our success. Roberto Martinez started the philosophy in 2007 and since then we’ve appointed similar types of managers which works well because none of them like to make wholesale changes to the playing staff when they take over. Of course each manager has been a little different, Michael Laudrup for example likes his wide men to play more like inside forwards compared to Brendan Rodgers who prefers them to play as out and out wingers. But in short yes I do believe it’s the way forward.

If you’re a Welsh club, do you think you should be playing in Wales? If not, should Celtic and Rangers be moved to the English leagues?
Roberto Martinez
Haha. It’s fairly straightforward why we’re in the English leagues, we were invited in by the FA along with the other Welsh clubs as there wasn’t a league in Wales and the Football League was expanding and looking for clubs to join in 1920. I accept that if football started now we should really be in the Welsh league but as we’ve been in the English system for nearly 100 years we won’t be leaving any time soon thank God. With regards to Rangers and Celtic they should stay where they are, it would open a massive can of worms for other leagues across the world and which league would they start in?

Out of everyone you’ve seen wear the Swansea shirt, which players stand out in your mind?
From my early years Roger Freestone our record appearance holder and one of the greatest goalkeepers we’ve ever had. He turned down opportunities to play at a higher level because he didn’t want to move and in truth should have gone as he was a lot better than us but stayed loyal to the club. Lee Trundle’s another one, the most entertaining player without doubt and scored some of the best goals I’ve ever seen. From the current crop Leon Britton who’s been here over a decade barring six months at Sheffield United and of course Michu the “bargain of last season” as everyone calls him.

Your club is partially owned by the Swansea City Supporters Trust.  In what ways can a fans’ trust benefit a club?
Swansea Fans' Trust
The best thing is that as a trust we have 20% of shares in the club which entitles us to have a fan on the board of directors. That way any issues from the fans can be brought up at board meetings and dealt with that way. Also if a foreign investor wants to buy in, he knows the trust will have a say on the club and that’s likely to put people like that off coming to us which suits me fine as I love the fact that we have the trust and the rest of the directors are local businessmen who are supporters of the club.

You’re the editor of fanzine ‘Swansea Oh Swansea’. Has selling the printed copies of fanzines become more difficult in this age of social media and blogging?
It can be yes but there’s still a market for it. A lot of people still prefer to have a print version, especially if they’re going on a bus to an away game for example. Programmes are still popular so I think there’ll always be a market for it. I guess it’s important you have original content like interviews with ex players for example to keep people interested.

Random question - why do you bother investing in part-Welsh signs when virtually everyone in Wales knows English?!
Ask the Welsh Assembly! In parts of Wales some people barely speak English so I’m told although that’s not the case in the south. It’s to do with patriotism I presume and the Welsh language is important to us Welshmen. Even if all we ever do in Welsh is sing the National Anthem!

What would make a good second half of the season for your lot?
Survival in the Premier League, beating Cardiff as we were awful against them earlier in the season and progressing in Europe as we’re unlikely to qualify again. In the FA Cup all you can do is take it one game at a time and hope you don’t get the nightmare draw if you progress – Man City away!

Thanks for answering the questions. Finally, your score prediction?
We’ll win 1-2. It’ll be a good break for the players after our poor league run and we owe you one after earlier in the season. I wasn’t there that night thank God but I’m going Saturday so hopefully I’ll be a lucky omen!

Thursday 23 January 2014

FA Cup 4th Round Predictions

Seven Premier League clubs have the day off, in this FA Cup weekend, while the other clubs will need to balance their priorities, with another round of league matches on Tuesday night. Watford look likely to be the seventeenth victim of Man City’s remarkable home record this season, while Arsenal will be heavy favourites to beat cash-strapped Coventry on Friday night. Liverpool and Everton prepare for a Merseyside Derby on Tuesday with away games against lower league opposition, while Kidderminster are the only non-league side left in the competition, they will enjoy at trip to Premier League Sunderland. Championship sides Bolton and Wigan seem the most likely to cause an upset, as they play host to Premier League Cardiff and Crystal Palace respectively, both of whom will want to focus on survival.

Arsenal vs. Coventry
Coventry fans protest
Considering the hell Coventry City fans have had to go through over the last two years, you would love it if this match produced a Friday night fairy-tale. It will certainly mean more to the Sky Blues, who have struggled desperately from a financial perspective. They will fight tooth and nail for a result, while you can expect Arsene Wenger to change his entire team in preparation for the Southampton game on Tuesday. League One Coventry always provide a better support when playing away than at their ground in Northampton, and that explains their impressive form on the road. Still, the gulf will be too wide. 3-0.

Simon Grayson
Nottm Forest vs. Preston
These teams have shown promise in this competition, both having already beaten a side in the league above them. In terms of confidence, a cup run could benefit Preston, who do not like falling out of the League One play-off places, yet neither do they look like going up automatically. Simon Grayson's side have an eye-catching away form, with six wins from their last seven on the road. Nottingham Forest are in a similar position in the Championship, but they have got an injury-ravaged squad and will be more keen to focus on maintaining their league form. 1-1.

Bournemouth vs. Liverpool
Lewis Grabban
Both teams are having better seasons than they might have expected, albeit in very different circumstances. Freshly promoted from League One, Bournemouth are seven points clear of the Championship relegation zone, with top scorer Grabban tied down to a new contract. Liverpool are in the top four, which represents progress under the guidance of Brendan Rodgers. However, the Reds will have more than half an eye on Tuesday’s Merseyside derby and could be shirking the challenges, on a small pitch at Dean Court. A narrow win for the hot favourites. 1-2.

Birmingham vs. Swansea
September: Blues 3-1 Swansea
Championship outfit Birmingham City have already beaten Swansea this season, they came out 3-1 victors in the League Cup clash back in September. However, two of their goalscorers that night, Dan Burn and Matt Green, will be unavailable, as Burn has returned from his low spell and Green has a long-term injury. A contrast of home and away form does not shine a great light on either side for this match. Birmingham have not won at home in the league since 1st October, while Premier League Swansea have only won once away since September. With Europa League matches, and possibly a relegation battle to contend with, Swansea are unlikely to prioritize a cup run. Birmingham have a habit of performing well without the pressure of expectation. 2-1.

Bolton vs. Cardiff
Solskjaer
Bolton are low on finances, and now they will be low on morale after an embarrassing defeat to Reading. Strong performances in the FA Cup could be just the tonic to boost spirits at the Reebok, and maybe give the club some much needed income. Cardiff’s best source of income is Premier League survival. They are currently bottom of the table, although only one point off safety. With two league games coming up in the next week, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s priorities will lie elsewhere. 2-1.

Huddersfield vs. Charlton
January: Charlton 0-1 H'field
These two Championship clubs met in the 3rd Round of the FA Cup last season, ending in a 1-0 win for Huddersfield at the Valley. The Terriers have the advantage going into this one too. Their home form is respectable, having only been beaten three times at the Galpharm in the league. However, they were fortunate to scrape through the third round, as two late goals saw them avoid a shock against non-league Grimsby. Charlton are only outside the Championship relegation zone on goal difference, level on points with Doncaster, against whom they have a vital league game on Tuesday night to prepare for. Huddersfield are slap-bang midtable, and a cup run would add excitement to their season. 2-1.

Alvaro Negredo
Man City vs. Watford
Watford might be more organized now under Giuseppe Sannino, but no defence, no matter how strong, will feel confident going to the Etihad at this moment. Three strikers City have, in Aguero, Negredo and Dzeko provide frightening forward options. It was a 3-0 win against Watford this time last year which saw City begin their journey to the FA Cup final, under Roberto Mancini. If the Hornets could keep it down to just the three goals this time, they will have done very well. 4-0.

Tom Pope
Port Vale vs. Brighton
Port Vale are thriving in League One. They have been close to the play-off places since the beginning of the season, as only a newly-promoted side from League Two, thanks largely to the goals of Tom Pope. Brighton are strong away though, having already kept seven clean sheets on the road. They should do the job here quite comfortably. 0-2.



Rochdale vs. Sheff Wed
Keith Hill
Rochdale’s home form has been key to their League Two promotion campaign thus far, under Keith Hill. Thirty-one points have been taken at Spotland, and in the last round, they knocked out Leeds of the Championship. Sheffield Wednesday are making great strides under new manager Stuart Gray, with a dramatic improvement in results since he took over. The Owls will avoid the dangers of complacency here. 0-2.


Southampton vs. Yeovil
James Hayter
Even though his side are midtable in the Premier League, Mauricio Pochettino might be tempted to rest a few players for Yeovil’s visit, in preparation for the match against Arsenal on Tuesday. The Glovers are joint-bottom of the Championship, but they have proved to be quite competent when playing away from home. They will be buoyed by a 2-0 win at Birmingham, with James Hayter trebling his goal tally for the season that afternoon. Yeovil will keep the scoreline respectable. 2-0.

Southend vs. Hull
Phil Brown
Phil Brown faces his old club, as manager of League Two Southend. The Shrimpers showed that they will be no pushovers in this competition, when they hit four past Championship Millwall in the third round. They are on a fine run of form, having beaten promotion rivals Chesterfield 3-0 in their last match, and have only lost once since October. Ten years ago, it would not take an FA Cup match for these clubs to meet, as Hull were also in the fourth tier. Now, the Tigers are looking to become an established Premier League club, although they have lost their last three league games. This is a potentially tricky tie for Hull, but they will avoid a slip-up with a narrow win. 0-1.

Sunderland vs. Kidderminster
Adam Johnson
Yet more cup action is in store for Sunderland. They reached the final of the League Cup on Wednesday, after a dramatic night at Old Trafford. Kidderminster Harriers of the fifth tier, do not appear in the right shape to produce another scalp, as the only non-league side remaining. They won 3-2 away to Peterborough in the third round, but following that result, the Conference play-off chasers went down to a shock 2-1 home defeat to relegation candidates Dartford. This will be a great day out for Kidderminster, but nothing more. 3-0.

Stephen Dobbie
Wigan vs. Crystal Palace
Wigan were unbeaten in eight before a shock 3-0 loss at Doncaster, but they will be one of the fancied teams to pull off an upset here. Miraculously, Crystal Palace are now above the relegation zone in the Premier League, but Tony Pulis will be intent on finishing the job. Wigan have not conceded in any of their last three home games, and Crystal Palace do not have too much depth in the attacking department, with Stephen Dobbie the only reserve forward. You would back the Latics to keep another clean sheet at the DW. 1-0.

Francois Zoko
Stevenage vs. Everton
These two teams met in the League Cup back in August, and Everton won. Even though Stevenage have home advantage this time around, the way these two clubs’ respective seasons are going, you cannot see the result being different. Stevenage lost at home to relegation rivals Notts County last week and are bottom of League One, despite the significant goal contributions of Francois Zoko. Everton on the other hand, are showing great progress under Roberto Martinez, although they are likely to change their team with a crucial Merseyside derby coming on Tuesday. Even so, they will be playing with more confidence than their lower league counterparts. 0-2.

Nigel Clough
Sheff Utd vs. Fulham
You might have thought that an away win against Premier League Aston Villa would boost Sheffield United’s league form, but the League One side have not done much since that match, with a defeat and a draw. Fulham remain dangerously close to the Premier League relegation zone, and a cup run will not be a priority for Rene Meulensteen, particularly with an aging, injury prone squad. Nigel Clough always seems to have that extra bit of passion for the FA Cup, and the Blades might just surprise us again. 2-1.

Chelsea vs. Stoke
Mark Hughes
Mark Hughes lifted the FA Cup four times as a player, but for this season at least, he’s unlikely to add to that tally in management. Not least because this weekend, he visits old club Chelsea, who have won their last six games in all forms. Hughes’ opposite number, Jose Mourinho, will not disregard any chance for a trophy, as he has won the domestic cup with every big club he has been to. Stoke rarely do well away from home, so this will be a comfortable afternoon for the Special One, and a testing one for Sparky. 2-0.

The Championship
The league’s top two form teams go head-to-head as Leicester play Middlesbrough, as both teams cannot stop winning at the moment. Blackpool have their first game without Paul Ince and are yet to name a caretaker manager before the visit of Doncaster, who will look to climb out of the relegation zone. There are also two games concerning the possible play-off places. Blackburn host Derby, while an Ipswich side struggling to regain their form play host to Reading, who have done exactly that, after a massive win last week. 

Blackburn vs. Derby
Jordan Rhodes
Blackburn fell victim to Nottingham Forest’s resurgence last week, they lost 4-1 at the City Ground. But things could be worse for the Rovers. They are still only four points off the play-off places, and top scorer Jordan Rhodes is still with the Lancashire club, despite talk of a January move. Derby got back to winning ways with a 1-0 home victory over Brighton last week. Patrick Bamford netted in the match, he scored his first goal for the Rams since joining on loan from Chelsea. Another win would put them just two points off the automatic promotion places, albeit having played a game extra than a few teams around them. Derby have the best away record in the division, while Blackburn can be very strong at home, so this could be a draw. 1-1.

Barry Ferguson
Blackpool vs. Doncaster
Both teams have made steps to undo their poor form of recent weeks. In Blackpool’s case, they have sacked manager Paul Ince, which might have been the right decision. Nine defeats from ten games was not good enough, and after his assault of a match official back in September, Ince has clearly created discipline problems at the club, given the number of red cards Blackpool have picked up. The problem is, Karl Oysten has reportedly offered the job of caretaker manager to current player Barry Ferguson. Ferguson has no experience of coaching or management, he had discipline problems himself as a player, he was not particularly liked by the Blackpool fans, so you cannot see the logic of the Blackpool board. Two goals from Chris Brown saw Doncaster get a shock 3-0 win over Wigan last week, which is a result that will give them real hope of survival. The Rovers are now only inside the relegation zone on goal difference, and have a crucial home match against Charlton on Tuesday. The relegation battle is getting tighter, and that factor concerns Blackpool too. 1-2.

Ipswich vs. Reading
Adam Le Fondre
It does not seem long ago that Ipswich were one of the Championship’s form teams, yet now they are without a win in six, if you include the two FA Cup games against Preston. Mick McCarthy’s side have the chance to push themselves back into play-off contention with a win over Reading. The Royals currently hold that sixth spot, and do not look like letting go any time soon - their 7-1 win over Bolton was the Championship’s biggest win of the season to date. Adam Le Fondre found his scoring boots, netting a hat-trick. His contract runs out this summer and has perhaps been unfairly treated by Reading, having apparently fallen out of Nigel Adkins’ plans. He remains their top scorer despite limited game time, and proved that he can grab goals when starting matches, and not just as an impact substitute. Reading will be buoyant after that result and might pick up a third straight win at Ipswich. 1-2.

Mustapha Carayol
Leicester vs. Middlesbrough

A meeting of the top two form teams in the Championship. With their only shot on target of the match in the last few minutes, Leicester won 1-0 at Leeds. That is the type of fortune, or ruthlessness, depending on how you look at it, that tends to win teams promotion. The Foxes are now six points clear of third place, and Nigel Pearson just needs to keep his side focused, because there is still over three months of football to be played. This will be a difficult match, as Middlesbrough are in superb form, having won five out of their last six and are now among a host of clubs looking to break into the play-off places. Leicester though, have only been beaten once at home this season and will be hoping to grind out a seventh consecutive league win. 1-0.