Sunday 4 May 2014

Championship Predictions: How did Gabriel do?

After a grueling nine months of my in-depth research and agonizing over the potential outcomes of a series of football matches, this Championship season has finished. So, having predicted a total of 468 games over the course of the season, how have I fared? Here are my results:

Date
Correct Results
Exact Scorelines
Points
03/08
3
0
3
10/08
2
0
2(/11)
17/08
3
0
3
24/08
5
1 - Watford 1-1 Nottm Forest
8
31/08
3
1 - Charlton 2-1 Leicester
6
14/09
2
0
2
21/09
6
1 - Charlton 0-1 Millwall
9
19/10
3
1 - Blackburn 0-1 Charlton
6
26/10
1
1 - Leicester 2-1 Bournemouth
4
02/11
2
2 - Leeds 2-0 Yeovil, Wigan 2-1 Huddersfield
8
09/11
4
1 - Middlesbrough 2-2 Watford
7
23/11
3
4 - Sheff Wed 1-2 Huddersfield, Birmingham 1-1 Blackpool, Ipswich 1-2 Leicester, Nottm Forest 1-1 Burnley
15
30/11
1
1 - Blackpool 2-0 Sheff Wed
4
03/12
3
3 - Birmingham 1-1 Doncaster, Millwall 2-2 Nottm Forest, Derby 2-1 Middlesbrough
12
21/12
2
2 - Bolton 1-1 Charlton, Ipswich 1-1 Watford
8
26/12
2
1 - Huddersfield 1-1 Derby
5
29/12
6
1 - Blackpool 0-1 Brighton
9
01/01
2
1 - Reading 1-1 Nottm Forest
5
11/01
6
1 - Blackpool 0-2 Midlesbrough
9
18/01
2
3 - Bournemouth 1-1 Watford, Burnley 1-1 Sheff Wed, QPR 2-1 Huddersfield
11
28/01
5
3 - Burnley 0-0 Brighton, Leeds 1-1 Ipswich, Millwall 1-1 Sheff Wed
14
01/02
6
2 - Blackburn 2-0 Blackpool, Sheff Wed 1-0 Barnsley
12
08/02
5
0
5
11/02 +
15/02
3
2 - Watford 1-0 Birmingham, Millwall 1-1 Bolton
9(/13)
22/02
4
0
4
01/03
6
1 - QPR 1-1 Leeds
9
08/03
3
0
3
11/03
3
0
3
15/03
4
2 - Leicester 3-1 Blackpool, Millwall 0-0 Charlton
10
22/03
4
1 - Wigan 2-1 Watford
7
25/03
1
1 - Burnley 2-0 Doncaster
4
29/03
1
2 - Bolton 1-1 Wigan, Leeds 1-2 Doncaster
7
05/04
2
0
2
08/04
3
1 - Barnsley 0-1 Burnley
6
12/04
2
1 - Derby 3-1 Huddersfield
5
18/04
2
0
2
21/04
2
2 - Derby 2-1 Barnsley, QPR 2-1 Watford
8
26/04
3
2 - Brighton 2-0 Yeovil, QPR 1-1 Millwall
9
03/05
3
2 - Ipswich 2-1 Sheff Wed, Leeds 1-1 Derby
9
Total
123
47
264
Average
3.2
1.2
6.8
The first thing the jumps out at me is that I have got the right outcome (result & scoreline combined) 170 times. 170 divided by 468 is 0.36. Times that by 100, that's 36%. So my record for getting the right outcome is in fact, only slightly better than 1 in 3. And there's only 1 in 3 possible outcomes of a game. Suffice to say, I do not possess the required psychic powers.

Simplistic though it may seem, the only thing I take away from this, is that it is impossible guess the future. Football is such an unpredictable sport, yet it is a sport that so many people have their opinions on, myself included. But there are so many variables involved, and so many potential factors, that it is impossible to consistently come up with a reliable theory on how a match will pan out. In many ways, that is why we love the game. Football just keeps you guessing.

On a final note, this is my last ever post on this blog. I have set up a new website: The Football Lab. Many thanks to everybody who has followed The Score. I do hope you've enjoyed reading it more than I've enjoyed writing it, because it's been an absolute bloody nightmare.

Gabriel

Thursday 1 May 2014

Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 3rd May

The final day of the Championship season is here, and how quickly has it gone? The race for promotion went down to final day drama last season, but this time around, things at the top have looked rather predictable since February. However, there are still things to play for. Reading’s fate is in their hands, they can clinch the final play-off spot with a win over Burnley, while Brighton will be hoping to take advantage of a slip-up, as they travel to Nottingham Forest. At the other end, Birmingham start the day in the drop zone. Defeat at Bolton would confirm relegation for the Blues, otherwise, their fate will be dependent on Doncaster and Millwall’s results against Leicester and Bournemouth respectively. There’s still much to play for, to round off this Championship season.

Ben Mansford
Barnsley vs. QPR
Barnsley’s relegation was confirmed last week, with a 3-1 loss at Middlesbrough. Chief executive Ben Mansford has promised a ‘competitive’ budget for the club next season, and as things stand, Barnsley looks like they will be in the strongest position of the teams to come down. QPR’s away form is terrible. They have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road, as only Charlton, Blackpool and Doncaster have scored less away goals. Harry Redknapp does have talented players at his disposal, but the likes of Junior Hoilett and Yossi Benayoun have underperformed this season. On this occasion, QPR might have a bit too much quality for Barnsley. 0-2.



Blackburn vs. Wigan
Blackburn need a last day miracle to get in the play-offs. There would need to be a 7 goal swing between themselves and Reading, and that’s in the scenario that Brighton fail to win. Realistically, it’s not going to happen, so Blackburn fans can be forgiven for looking ahead to next season. Wigan, meanwhile, secured their play-off place with a 1-0 win at Birmingham. They just need a draw here to tie up fifth place, and going on current form, most teams would rather play QPR than Derby in the semi-finals. Blackburn are lacking an experienced holding midfielder, and this is where Wigan, a side who close down very effectively in midfield, can benefit. I’d go for a high-scoring draw. 2-2.

Blackpool vs. Charlton
Callum Harriott
Charlton’s safety was confirmed on Tuesday night, with a 3-1 win over Watford. Winger Callum Harriott scored two very well taken goals, which should be a real boost for the youngster. Until recently, he looked like a player who had a lot of pace but lacked intelligence in his play, yet 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 games suggests Harriott’s end product is improving too. After a turbulent season, Blackpool need just a point to secure survival. For all his critics, Barry Ferguson deserves credit for getting such a crucial result, a 2-0 win at Wigan, out of his players. Neither side desperately need a win, and both teams have scored the joint fewest number of goals in the Championship. This has the look of a goalless to me. 0-0.

Bolton vs. Birmingham
Bolton have been in excellent form since March, and are ending their season with more positive news, with Neil Danns signing on a permanent deal. He has arguably been Bolton’s best attacking player this season, with 6 goals and 5 assists in just 25 starts since joining in October. Danns will be facing his old club, Birmingham, who start the final day in the drop zone. Defeat for the Blues would confirm relegation, though they can stay up with a draw if Doncaster lose. The one piece of good news is that defender Paul Robinson will return from suspension. Birmingham have a much better record, defensively and overall, with Robinson in the side. He, like Danns, will be up against his old club, in a pivotal game. Bolton have only conceded 4 goals in their last 8 and they will be hard for Birmingham to break down. If the Blues are chasing a goal in the closing stages, they will push men forward, which is a worry because Bolton can counter well. 2-0.

Ipswich vs. Sheff Wed
Stuart Gray
1pt from a possible 9 has mathematically ended Ipswich’s play-off ambitions for this season. It has been a progressive campaign for the Tractor Boys, but they have lacked creativity in midfield. Their highest assister is their left-back, and their highest-scoring non-striker is a centre-back, which tells its’ own story. This summer, Mick McCarthy needs to add an attack-minded midfielder who can get forward and contribute. Sheffield Wednesday continue to leak goals, with 20 conceded in 7 games since the end of March. Stuart Gray is looking to bring in a striker this summer, but there are other areas he may need to strengthen. Questions will be asked of whether the aging pair of Glenn Loovens and Oguchi Onyewu, will be able to play week in, week out next season. 2-1.

Leeds vs. Derby
The animosity between these two clubs has been there since the early 70s, when they were the top 2 clubs in England, with a rivalry fuelled by Don Revie and Brian Clough. After going on an awful run of form over March, Leeds seem to be ending the season on a high, with 3 wins from their last 4 games. Derby meanwhile, have found their goalscoring grove once again. They’ve won their last 5 games, scoring 14 goals. It is no coincidence that Derby have scored more goals since loanee George Thorne has started getting games. Dropping deep, he has given other midfielders the licence to get forward and support attacks, and that is where Derby are at their strongest. 1-1.

Leicester vs. Doncaster
Kevin Phillips
Leicester striker Kevin Phillips has announced that he will retire at the end of the season. You would hope that he gets a substitute appearance at the end for sentimental reasons, because he has been a fantastic professional throughout his career, and one of the best finishers in the English game. There are certainly more pressing matters at stake though, as Doncaster need a win to guarantee Championship survival. If the Rovers do go down, you can put it down to a lack of goals. Paul Dickov’s side have only scored 13 times since the end of January, and sometimes they struggle to create chances. I cannot see Leicester easing their grip, so I think Doncaster’s fate will come down to what happens at the Reebok. 2-0.

Millwall vs. Bournemouth
An injury to Elliott Ward is unlikely to trouble Bournemouth too much, because Steve Cook and Tom Elphick have formed a very solid defensive pairing over the last couple of months. Millwall grabbed a last minute equalizer at QPR, thanks to a wonderful strike from Scott Malone, which will give the team confidence going into the final day. If the Lions do stay up, they might need a little bit more quality in midfield. The likes of Nicky Bailey and Shaun Williams provide bite, but the tactic for them this season has been to hoof it into the box. With a higher calibre of opposition coming up from League One, you wonder if that will be enough next time around. 1-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Brighton
Oscar Garcia
The goals Nottingham Forest conceded last week, came about from them defending far too deep. They appeared happy to camp on the 18-yard line and a side in Bournemouth, who can keep the ball so well, were always going to find their way through eventually. Likewise, Brighton are a possession side, and they had a lot of it against Yeovil last Friday, but only created chances in the latter stages. The Seagulls have never been the type of team that will attack with intent, and Oscar Garcia has been criticized for this at times. Mathematically, only a 16-16 draw in this match would see Brighton get into the play-offs with a point. Although the two teams are currently on the same goal difference, Brighton have a vastly inferior goals scored record to Reading. Realistically, this is a game that Brighton need to win, so it will be interesting to see whether Garcia takes more of an adventurous mentality. 0-1.

Reading vs. Burnley
Time will tell just how important Reading’s 2nd half turnaround at Doncaster will prove to be. The Royals scored 3 goals in typically fast-paced style. They know a win will guarantee a play-off spot, but this will be no easy task, as they face an impressive Burnley side. The Clarets won last week, despite already having been promoted, which suggests that Sean Dyche is keeping his players in check. Winger Michael Kightly has been in very good form lately, with four goals and two man of the match performances since mid-March. While Burnley are unlikely to drop off the boil entirely, I would just go for Reading here. They will have that little bit more incentive to win. 2-1.
Alex Smithies

Watford vs. Huddersfield
Watford will be glad to end the season on their own turf. With a poor away record, they have played their last 3 matches away from Vicarage Road, losing each one. However, the Hornets have only dropped 7 points at home since the turn of the year. They will be confident of a victory, because Huddersfield have lost 12 away games this season, and only Barnsley and Doncaster have lost more frequently. You would think that finishing 2 places higher than last season would be a sign of progress. In fact, Huddersfield are guaranteed to finish with a much lower points tally, and they are a team I would worry about going into next season. Watford fans meanwhile, can feel quietly optimistic. 2-0.

Yeovil vs. Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough travel to Yeovil with news that Greek goalkeeper Dimitros Konstantopoulos has extended his contract for another season. The 35-year-old has only conceded 12 goals in 12 games since arriving in March, and has been man of the match on 3 occasions. There may a communication issue which he needs to work on, because the goals he conceded against Reading were due to a misunderstanding between him and the defence. Aitor Karanka not playing a consistent back-line perhaps doesn’t help this problem. The future of Yeovil’s manager, Gary Johnson, is in doubt. Currently in his second spell with the West Country club, Johnson has made his demands for backing in the transfer window known. Yeovil have shown that they can hold their own at this level, but you would think they need to sign a couple of experienced players on big wages, if they want to be competing at the top of League One next season. 0-1.