My predictions for this weekend's matches in the Premier League and Championship...
Premier League
Everton vs. Liverpool
Cheeky celebration from Suarez |
The first Merseyside Derby of the
season. Both former-Swansea managers, Roberto Martinez and Brendan Rodgers,
will be looking for a first win against their new arch rivals. A big game in
terms of local pride, but it will also provide an intriguing test of both
sides’ European credentials this season.
Everton have kept three straight clean sheets and are looking very
difficult to break down, particularly with Gareth Barry sitting in front of the
defence - his ability to recycle possession seems to ease the pressure on the
back line. On the other hand, Liverpool have scored sixteen goals in their last
six games, thanks largely to a certain Uruguayan. It was Suarez who made the
headlines in this fixture last season. He celebrated a goal by taking a
Klinsmann-esque dive in front of then Everton manager David Moyes, who had made
(rather valid) claims that he goes down too easily. Love him or loathe him,
nobody can deny that Luis Suarez is a world-class footballer. He might just
prove it again, by providing a moment of magic in what could be a tight, tense
game at Goodison Park. 0-1.
Arsenal vs. Southampton
Wojciech told what his new salary is |
This week, goalkeeper Wojciech
Szczecsny has signed a new contract with Arsenal, which must go down as good
news for the club. His shot stopping has developed over the last year or so,
and the fact that Arsenal had the second best defensive record in the league
last season is a clear sign of improvement from him. He may be tested on
Saturday though, because Southampton put four past Hull before the
international break, and they play at a very high tempo, which could worry the
gangling Per Mertesacker. It seems bizarre to think that we are in late
November, but a recently promoted club like Southampton could go top of the
league with a win! After the defeat at Old Trafford, it is difficult to tell
whether Arsenal have the capability to win the title, but they might edge out a
promising Southampton team. 2-1.
Fulham vs. Swansea
Bony finding form |
Fulham put in a terrible
performance in the 4-0 defeat to Liverpool. Yes, they were playing against
someone with the quality of Suarez, but they seemed to stand like statues for
the goals. A fourth successive defeat in all forms will not help the mood in
the camp, and many will fear for them defensively playing against a team with
Swansea’s fluidity and movement. The Swans are the highest scoring team in the
bottom half of the table, and big money signing Wilfried Bony is now beginning
to find some form, having netted three times in his last two games. Fulham have
an aging defence and I fancy Swansea to play through them, to put Martin Jol’s
position as manager under yet more scrutiny. 1-3.
Hull vs. Crystal Palace
"We're looking for a manager. Our position in the table? I'll get back to you." |
It looks likely that Tony Pulis
will take on the Crystal Palace job. Reportedly he is in advanced talks, and in
this case you can understand why the Palace board are keen to take their time
over the appointment. Their relegation looks almost inevitable, but it is
important they bring in the right man to get them out of the Championship –
Pulis’s experience doing so with Stoke could be useful. Palace have failed to
score in six of their last eight matches though, and cannot seem to find the
net at the moment. Their chances of doing so on Saturday are not particularly
high, seeing as Hull City have kept three consecutive clean sheets at home, and
Steve Bruce is doing an excellent job of stabilizing them in midtable. The last
time there was more than two goals scored in a game at the KC Stadium was March
16th, which suggests this may not be the most memorable one, but it is clear
which team has adjusted best to life in the Premier League. 1-0.
Newcastle vs. Norwich
A solid face of rock - Krul |
Norwich’s 3-1 win over West Ham
last time out could prove pivotal. At half time, West Ham were 1-0 up and
bossing the game, putting Norwich right in the thick of the relegation
dogfight, following a humiliating defeat at Man City the week before. With the
pressure on, to score three goals against West Ham, who can be tough to break
down at times, says a lot for the team spirit and Chris Hughton deserves
credit. They face a Newcastle side who have bounced back from that derby defeat
to Sunderland, by taking maximum points from Chelsea and Tottenham. Tim Krul
put in an astonishing performance at Spurs, and if he can maintain that when up
against a lower team, Newcastle should pick up a third consecutive clean sheet. Back-to-back wins against two of the top
teams in the league will fill the Magpies with confidence, so they have to be
expected to win this and move into the top half. 2-0.
Stoke vs. Sunderland
Important win for Sunderland |
In some ways the international
break came at the wrong time for Sunderland. Although you don’t want to go into
it after a defeat, it is not ideal for it to come right after a vital, morale
boosting win, because it can drain out some of the momentum. Either way, that
result is one that nobody expected, and it does give Sunderland hope of staying
up. Stoke snatched a point in a thrilling 3-3 draw with Swansea last time out,
and that result keeps them above the drop zone for now. What will worry new
managers Mark Hughes and Gus Poyet, is that neither side has a reliable goalscorer,
so there might not be anything to separate the two teams. 1-1.
West Ham vs. Chelsea
"Please, just give us a pen ref!" |
Chelsea need to get back to
winning ways. After a disappointing performance at Newcastle, and effectively
cheating their way to a last minute draw with West Brom, it is important they
take three points against London rivals West Ham. The hosts lost 3-1 at Norwich
before the break, although only two teams outside the top five have conceded
less goals than the Hammers, who have kept a clean sheet more often than not
this season. West Ham will certainly make themselves difficult to break down,
and it could be a test of Chelsea’s exotic attacking players such as Hazard and
Mata, whether their quality can shine through. 0-2.
Man City vs. Tottenham
Should Defoe get more games? |
A clash of this season’s underachievers.
Manchester City have been a completely different team when playing at home, to
when playing away. They have won all five of their home games convincingly, yet
they have lost four out of six on the road. Manuel Pellegrini must be wondering
why the team cannot convert strong performances at home, into their away form –
it is difficult to understand. Injuries over the past few weeks to key players
such as Vincent Kompany, David Silva and Fernandinho have perhaps had an
impact, but a vast improvement on away form is crucial to City’s title chances.
Tottenham have been rather uninspiring so far as well. Only the bottom two
clubs have scored less goals than Spurs this season, despite so much money
being spent this summer on attacking players. They created a lot of chances in
the 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle, but Roberto Soldado has been very
disappointing, having only scored from open play once. Now may be the time for
Villas-Boas to give Jermain Defoe a run in the team to enhance competition. Man
City to win this and continue their 100% record at home, it is away where they
must pick up. 2-1.
Cardiff vs. Man Utd
Carrick a loss for United |
This is a potentially difficult
trip for Manchester United. Cardiff fans always create a boisterous atmosphere
in their backyard and they will be psyched up for the visit of the champions,
making it difficult conditions for Moyes’ side. United will be without a number
of key players. Most notably Michael Carrick whose composure on the ball would
be useful in this type of match, Phil Jones picked up an injury with England,
while Vidic, Rafael and Robin van Persie are all fitness doubts. Cardiff have
only scored one goal in their last three matches though, that one coming from a
set piece, and with Peter Odemwingie as the loan striker they are not posing
much of an attacking threat. United have started to discover some momentum
under Moyes and if they can keep Cardiff at bay, they will grind out a win
which could take them into the top four for the first time. 0-1.
West Brom vs. Aston Villa
Baggies yet to extend Clarke deal |
A game between two Birmingham
clubs who are slap-bang in the middle of the table, have picked up four points
each from their previous two matches - both look to be completely safe this
season. West Brom are close to tying down the talented Saido Berahino to a new long-term
contract which is a plus, although more concerning for Baggies fans will be the
contract of manager Steve Clarke. He has done an excellent job since taking
over from Roy Hodgson, and for West Brom to be on course for a second
successive finish in the top half speaks volumes. Having worked on a relatively
low budget as well, Clarke is arguably one of the most underrated managers in
the top flight, so chairman Jeremy Peace needs to sort out a deal quickly. Two
late goals saw Aston Villa beat Cardiff before the international break, one of
which a sublime free-kick from Leandro Bacuna, who is looking an excellent
signing from Paul Lambert. A comfortable season in store for both clubs. 1-1.
The Championship
Doncaster vs. Yeovil
Yeovil loan Taylor |
Doncaster fans might be concerned
about their position in the relegation battle. They did keep a clean sheet last
time out at Barnsley, but that was because their opponents missed a penalty,
and Doncaster did not hit the target against the Championship’s weakest
defence. With Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday having winnable games this
weekend, Doncaster must beat bottom of the table Yeovil Town on Friday night.
The Glovers failed to score for the eighth time when they played Wigan, and
they might start to become more frail at the back, with yet another change in
the goalkeeping department. They brought in Reading’s reserve keeper Stuart
Taylor, on a one month loan, who will be the fifth goalkeeper to play for them
this season. So many different keepers coming in at different times is bound to
unsettle the defence, and stop the keeper and back four from developing an
understanding. Doncaster will take advantage. 2-0.
Sheff Wed vs. Huddersfield
Vaughan back from suspension |
This could prove to be a massive
game for Sheffield Wednesday, and manager Dave Jones. It is one which will be
even bigger if, as predicted, Doncaster beat Yeovil on the Friday. The Owls’
3-0 defeat at Derby suggests that their shock 5-2 victory over Reading was just
one of those bizarre results, rather than a sign of future improvement. They
put in a very poor performance at Pride Park, and Derby’s second and third
goals came about from sloppy defending. If Jones had the full respect of the
Wednesday players, after the morale-boosting result beforehand, they would surely
not have lost so heavily? Following a bright start, Huddersfield have slipped
down the table of late, losing 3-1 at home to Birmingham last time. They have lost
four of their last five matches, although they do look forward to the return of
top scorer James Vaughan, from his three match suspension. The Terriers have
scored in each of their last eight games, which suggests the creativity is
there in midfield. Vaughan’s power up front could give them the boost needed to
take all three points, and apply the pressure on Dave Jones. 1-2.
Birmingham vs. Blackpool
Will late Ipswich defeat deter Blackpool? |
This season, Birmingham have
worked on a basis of ‘one good
performance, one bad performance’, having lost every match that followed a
victory. They won 3-1 at Huddersfield before the international break, which
takes them to three points above the relegation zone, having been inside it
before the match. Blackpool lost only their second match of the season against
Ipswich, thanks to a last minute goal. They could experience a decline now. Teams
like Watford, Reading and Wigan have arguably more proven quality, and that
result will drain some of Blackpool’s momentum. Both teams play with one
recognized striker, in Nikola Zigic and Ricardo Fuller, and the key to the
match could be who provides the most support from midfield. 1-1.
Blackburn vs. Reading
Adkins' side can improve on the road |
Blackburn have usually got a
strong home form, having picked up thirteen of their nineteen points at Ewood
Park, although there may be a cloud hanging over the South Lancashire club at
the moment. While rivals Burnley are the surprise table-toppers, Blackburn look
to be struggling financially, lost 3-0 at Brighton last time out, and there are
fitness concerns over top striker Jordan Rhodes. They come up against a Reading
side who bounced back from that humiliating defeat at Wednesday by taking a
decent point against QPR, thanks to a fine showing from keeper Alex McCarthy.
Away form has been Reading’s stumbling block this season, with just eight
points from seven games on the road. If Nigel Adkins can put that right, the
Royals look a good bet for at least a play-off place. 1-2.
Bournemouth vs. Derby
Rantie scored first goal for Bournemouth |
More goals have been scored in
matches involving either Bournemouth or Derby, than any of the other teams in
the league - this probably means it will be a goalless draw! Derby are the
highest-scoring team this season, while only Barnsley have conceded more than gung-ho
Bournemouth. The Cherries attained a credible draw at league leaders Burnley,
after Tokelo Rantie’s opener. Derby though, have taken the majority of their
points away from home this season, and come into this game off the back of a
3-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday. Bournemouth tend to press high up the
pitch, which can leave gaps in behind, and so far Derby have looked good at
exploiting the space by moving the ball quickly. This will be a fifth away win
of the season for the Rams. 1-2.
Ipswich vs. Leicester
Cresswell suspended |
Ipswich got a first away win at Blackpool
last time out, but that result is unlikely to change much in the context of
their season. Under Mick McCarthy, they play with a very rigid 4-4-2 and do not
seem to have enough attacking flair in midfield. Leicester’s 2-0 home defeat to
rivals Nottingham Forest will have left a bitter taste in the mouth before the
international break. They need to get back to winning ways quickly, as they are
level on points and goal difference with QPR in second place. The Foxes may
have some joy down the right hand side, as Ipswich’s key left-back Aaron
Cresswell is suspended after his second yellow card for abusive language in the
match against Barnsley. Without an obvious second choice left-back, the
inexperienced Tyrone Mings may be forced to fill in as he was against
Blackpool, and he could struggle against a winger with the quality of
Knockaert. Leicester to scrape an important win. 1-2.
Leeds vs. Middlesbrough
"Bit windy up here" - Karanka |
This is Aitor Karanka’s first
match in charge of Middlesbrough. His appointment might bring the excitement
factor back to the Riverside, as the club did not seem to be progressing under
Tony Mowbray. His first task is a tough game at Leeds, who won back-to-back
matches before the international break to move one point off the play-off
spots. In those games, all six goals came from Ross McCormack, who is now the
Championship’s leading scorer. I still think Leeds will not finish higher than
midtable though, because only a month ago they were well inside the bottom
half, perhaps this has only been a peak in form. Plus, if anything happens to
Ross McCormack – injury or transfer – then they are snookered for goals.
Middlesbrough are an unknown quantity in terms of how Karanka’s arrival will
impact the team, so the safe bet is a draw. 1-1.
Millwall vs. Barnsley
Just one away point for Barnsley |
This is another important game in
the battle to avoid the drop. Millwall’s problem this season has definitely
been performing against the lower teams. They have taken ten points from seven
games against sides in the top half of the table, yet only four points from
eight against those in the bottom. The team clearly has difficulties playing
when the onus is on them to win, and such will be the case against Barnsley,
who sit inside the relegation zone. The Tykes have the worst away record in the
Championship, having taken just one point from seven matches on the road.
However, this does not tell the whole story, because David Flitcroft’s side are
unbeaten in four games, and their survival hopes are very much in tact.
Barnsley did the double over Millwall last season, and that makes them my tip
for a surprise win at the weekend. 1-2.
Nottm Forest vs. Burnley
Forest won 2-0 at rivals Leicester |
A match between two teams who are
difficult to place, in terms of this season’s promotion battle. Forest got a
surprise 2-0 win at rivals Leicester before the international break. Whether
that is a sign of their promotion credentials or simply an odd result, remains
to be seen. It was very much a ‘smash and grab’ job, because Leicester had most
of the play. That said, a win over your rivals is always going to boost morale,
so it will be interesting to see how Forest come into this game. When Burnley
beat QPR 2-0 at the end of October, they looked unstoppable. However, they have
slipped up against Millwall and Bournemouth in matches since, which makes it
difficult for us punters to judge whether they will go the distance. A game
which could easily go either way. 1-1.
QPR vs. Charlton
Charlton - an organized side |
Two sides who rely on defensive
nous, more than attacking potency, for their respective ambitions. In a
difficult run of games, QPR have only won one of their last five, although only
one of those games ended in a defeat. The Rs should return to club football
with a win, and will be relatively comforted to know that their next four
opponents are currently in the bottom half. As for Charlton, the unpredictable
nature of the Championship dictates that when you’re a club who has kept four
straight clean sheets, you concede four goals in your next match. The Addicks
fell victim to the Ross McCormack massacre when they hosted Leeds, yet they are
still the most defensively organized side in the bottom half of the table. A
routine win for QPR is the most likely outcome. 2-0.
Watford vs. Bolton
Zola's side struggling for form |
Watford are struggling for form
at the moment, having taken just two points from their last four matches. Throw
in the club’s financial penalty of £900K due to ex-board member Laurence
Bassini’s actions, and things are not looking as rosy this season for Watford
as many Hornets would have hoped. They are starting to struggle at home as
well, having lost back-to-back matches at Vicarage Road for the first time
since August 2011. Under Dougie Freedman Bolton look to be finally climbing the
table now. They are unbeaten in seven matches and despite the continued absence
of several key players, now including keeper Adam Bogdan, they are starting to
show why they were among the pre-season favourites for promotion. If Bolton can
win this, a play-off push will be in sight, but a draw is a bit more likely.
1-1.
Wigan vs. Brighton
Barnes needs to start firing |
No side outside the play-off
places have conceded less than Wigan and Brighton, which suggests this will be
a low-scoring affair (cue the 4-3 thriller!). A third of Brighton’s overall
goals tally this season came in their last two matches, when they put three past
Doncaster and Blackburn. Ashley Barnes scored a brace in the Blackburn match,
yet they were his first goals of the season from ten appearances, so he needs
to discover his form very quickly. Wigan’s impressive defensive record
continued with a clean sheet last time out, albeit at lowly Yeovil, but the
Latics are still unbeaten at home. If they can grind out a win here, their game
in hand will worry some of the teams in the play-off position. 1-0.
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