Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Ten

My predictions for this weekend's matches, in the Premier League and Championship...

Premier League

Newcastle vs. Chelsea

Chelsea are now starting to get out of second gear this season. After a mixed start, they have now won their last six matches in all competitions, scoring eighteen goals. Against Arsenal in the cup, they made as many as ten changes from the side which beat Man City, and still came away with a win by two goals. It highlights the strength in depth of that squad, which is why Chelsea remain my tip to win the title this season. Much of Newcastle’s first team had to play 120 minutes in the cup against Man City in midweek, they have had a day less to prepare than Chelsea and more players potentially tired. Toon will struggle to get the derby defeat to Sunderland out of their system, and they rely on moments of individual quality from the likes of Remy, Cabaye and Ben Arfa for goals. There’s some animosity from Newcastle fans towards the owner, Mike Ashley, after he banned local journalists from the club. It’s not going to be the most supportive, vibrant atmosphere at St James’s Park, so this could be a comfortable afternoon for Chelsea. 0-2.

Fulham vs. Man Utd

‘Alex who?’ is unlikely to be the mindset of United fans at the moment, but three straight wins in all competitions eases some of the pressure on Ferguson’s replacement, David Moyes. A brace from Javier Hernandez in midweek may give the Scot something to think about, whenever Hernandez plays he always scores goals and should perhaps be given more of a chance. At Everton Moyes tended to prefer the bigger, more hardworking strikers who contribute in link-up play as opposed to a poacher, which might explain the Little Pea’s lack of game time until now. A rotated Fulham team was dramatically knocked out of the cup by Leicester in midweek, but that won’t be the main concern for Martin Jol. They have got a difficult fixture schedule between now and the start of December, being only two points away from the drop zone. And, with Manchester United starting to get into their stride, Fulham are unlikely to extend that gap on Saturday. 0-2.

Hull vs. Sunderland

Sunderland put in a very committed performance against Newcastle last week, but they need to play like that in most matches from now on to stay up. It is one thing to dig in for a derby game, but another to do so throughout the season. That said, a late goal as good as the one from Fabio Borini should give people a lift, and it may prove to be the turning point for the Black Cats. Hull only made four changes for their League Cup tie at White Hart Lane, from the side which lost 1-0 there four days earlier. Much of their first team has had to play 120 minutes of football on Wednesday night, which is hardly ideal for the Tigers. Only three teams have scored less goals than Steve Bruce’s side this season, and what is effectively three consecutive defeats after the penalty shoot-out defeat at Spurs, won’t exactly build confidence. To still be in the top half of the table going into November is a great achievement for Hull, but their lack of firepower up front may cost them in the next few weeks. 0-1.

Man City vs. Norwich

Pellegrini can afford to manage his team for this game with Tuesday night in mind. If City beat CSKA Moskow in their Champions League group, they are definitely through, and will be able to experiment in their remaining group games. They are likely reach the semi-final of the League Cup too, having knocked out Newcastle and are expected to get past Leicester in the quarters, which is not necessarily a good thing. Having been so inconsistent this season and languishing in seventh, the priority has to be improving Premier League form. In any case, this is a game City should win comfortably, because Norwich have had a rotten start to the season. They got a 3-2 win here on the final day of last season, but those were happier times. The Canaries are now inside the relegation zone and the pressure is mounting on Chris Hughton – they need to beat West Ham next week. 3-0.

Stoke vs. Southampton

Statistically, the highest chance of a clean sheet this weekend is at the Britannia. A Stoke side who are the joint-lowest goalscorers in the Premier League, play a Southampton team with the best defensive record. Stoke fielded a strong team at Birmingham in midweek and had to go through a dramatic 120 minutes, but given a four day rest, the team should recover for Saturday. More concerning for Mark Hughes, will be the form Southampton are in. The Saints have not lost a match since August, conceding just one goal in their last seven in all forms. I have waxed lyrical in the past about the defensive partnership between Fonte and Lovren, and would have to back them to keep a clean sheet again. Stoke have a decent defensive record themselves. Outside the top six, only one team have conceded less goals than the Potters – the dramatic 4-4 result on Tuesday was likely to have been an anomaly. Even with Robert Huth injured, I don’t think Stoke will concede in this match, nor will Southampton. 0-0.

West Brom vs. Crystal Palace

Even at this early stage, it seems the writing is on the wall for Crystal Palace. Their organisation against Arsenal was good for most of the match, plus Szczesny was forced into a couple of key saves, but they conceded the penalty from a key lapse in concentration. Palace lack both the mental strength and the quality required to stay up - it is difficult to see any manager saving them. It was surprising to see West Brom get torn apart by Liverpool last week, because generally speaking they have looked solid so far. But that game was against the league’s in-form strike partnership, this is against a Palace team who are struggling desperately to score goals. West Brom to get a clean sheet and win 1-0.

West Ham vs. Aston Villa

West Ham are another team looking strong defensively, having kept three clean sheets from their last four games. A fourth is on the cards, because Aston Villa have failed to score in their last three, despite the return of Christian Benteke from injury last week. West Ham will be scrapping for a win, being just one point above the drop zone, and this is the kind of game that Sam Allardyce will typically isolate and say: ‘we need to make sure we win this’. The lack of goals will be a concern for Paul Lambert, Villa are going into a series of important matches between now and Christmas – seven of their next nine opponents are bottom half teams. It is important that Christian Benteke rediscovers his form quickly, West Ham have the defensive strength to win this 1-0.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

A clash between two of this season’s surprise pace-setters, who have been at times mouthwatering going forward, if a little suspect at the back. This match might see that change though, because both teams will be worried about each other’s attacking talents, so there could be a slightly more conservative approach from both sides. Arsenal might defend a little bit deeper than they have done in recent weeks, while Gerrard and Lucas are likely to take up more defensive responsibility in midfield for Liverpool. Arsenal seem to be having the same old problems in terms of beating the big teams. They lost to Dortmund and Chelsea due to individual errors, it is this underdog mentality that has been present at Arsenal long enough, and the main reason why I do not think the Gunners will win the title. Liverpool have won three of their last four games, causing Brendan Rodgers to mention a potential title challenge as well, but that is either a slight bluff or overambition. They have a great strike partnership in Suarez and Sturridge, but they are not consistent enough defensively, and I am pretty sure they would take a point here. 1-1.

Everton vs. Tottenham

In this game last season, two injury time goals from Everton gave them a 2-1 win. If the Toffees could repeat that, they would be likely to move into the top four on Sunday night, which would cap an excellent start to Roberto Martinez’s tenure. I predicted it to be a difficult transition for the club after ten years of Moyes, but Martinez has settled in really well. Everton have continued their strong home form, having won their last three games at Goodison. A concern for Tottenham will be that they played a very strong midfield against Hull in midweek. One which included Lamela, Dembele, Paulinho, Sigurdsson and Eriksen, as well as a couple of key defenders and still only won the match on penalties. Villas-Boas should arguably not have criticized the fans after the match on Saturday, but he also overreacted slightly with his celebration on Wednesday. He seemed overly happy for Spurs to win a match on the lottery of a shoot-out, that they should have won in ninety minutes. Arsenal have provided Tottenham’s only real away test so far, and they lost that, so I fancy Everton going into this. 2-1.

Cardiff vs. Swansea

Playing at home in a loud stadium, Cardiff might be the more psyched up for the first ever Welsh derby in the Premier League. More of their team have been at the club for longer, and understand what the rivalry means to the fans, whereas Swansea have signed a lot of their players since promotion. Then again, the Swans have a lot more technical quality in their team, and pass the ball around very well, although they struggled to break down West Ham last week. Neither side seem to have an in form goalscorer to give them the edge, so a 1-1 draw is the safe bet.

The Championship

Ipswich vs. Barnsley

Ipswich fans will be relieved that there has been no approach from the FAI for manager Mick McCarthy. The Tractor Boys will be keen to end a run of four games without a win though, and on the goals front they can improve. They’ve only scored twice in their last three, and in their 1-1 draw at Bolton last week, top scorer David McGoldrick netted for only the first time in a month. This is a good opportunity to build confidence in attack though, because Barnsley have the worst defence in the Championship. It’s been a recurring problem for them to hold onto a lead and they’ve dropped a fair few points this season. Against Sheffield Wednesday last time, and they came close to throwing away a three goal cushion playing Middlesbrough the week before. Had they got three points against Wednesday last week, they would look more capable of going on a run to take themselves out of the bottom three. As it is, I would fancy Ipswich to win this with their home record under McCarthy. 2-1.

Watford vs. Leicester

Out of the thirteen times Watford have played, I have only got four of their results right – they are a nightmare to predict. They passed the ball around well at Brighton on Monday, particularly in the second half, and looked a little unfortunate not to come away with three points. A key factor in their promotion push, will be the speed of Troy Deeney’s return to full fitness. He didn’t have the best game at Brighton, and it may take him a while to become the physical threat he was in the opening weeks of the season. Leicester have won their last three games in all competitions, and although all of those games were at home, they should go into this one in a good mood. Against Fulham, they actually made five changes from the line-up that beat Bournemouth, yet still came away with a dramatic win. I will go with Leicester for this, but you never quite know which Watford team will turn up. 0-1.

Birmingham vs. Charlton

A dramatic night for Birmingham on Tuesday. The team battled bravely to come from behind against Premier League opposition three times, with 10 men for most of the match. The team had to work extremely hard for 120 minutes, and there’s a possibility they will suffer a slight hangover from that game. Blues will need a certain amount of vitality to get past a Charlton defence which has kept three consecutive clean sheets, while Simon Church is tasked with replacing the injured Yann Kermorgant up front. Both times these teams met last season, it took an injury-time equalizer from Blues to secure a 1-1 draw - I’m going with the same scoreline.

Blackburn vs. Middlesbrough

An excellent result for Mark Venus’s side against Doncaster last week. It looks as though the ‘Boro board are waiting to see how he fares in the next few games, before deciding whether they need to appoint a new manager, or give him the job permanently. Venus has already completed what looks like a coup in bringing in Daniel Ayala on a three month loan from Norwich, the Spaniard had an excellent debut, scoring and looking very solid. Blackburn got a late equalizer at Blackpool last week to prevent a third consecutive defeat, but they have a number of players ruled out for this game and lack experience in midfield. Middlesbrough to win this 1-2.

Bournemouth vs. Bolton

Considering their away form is not one of Bournemouth’s strengths, one point from two testing trips to the East Midlands is a decent enough outcome for the Cherries. To be eight points above the drop zone in November is a good achievement, and they have a number of home games coming up which should help them consolidate. The concern will be that big money signing Tokelo Rantie has made little impact since signing, leaving a lot of pressure on top scorer Lewis Grabban. Bolton might be unbeaten at five, but their precarious position in the table tells you that a lot of those games have been draws. With the experience they have, hardly anyone would expect them to be just one point above the relegation zone, and throw away crucial leads in their last two home games. Bournemouth are higher in the table and at home, but on paper Bolton have a significantly better squad. 1-1 draw for me.

Doncaster vs. Brighton

Doncaster’s defence was looking relatively solid until they conceded eight goals in back-to-back defeats. At Middlesbrough they conceded three goals from set pieces, with poor marking and Paul Dickov needs to get a reaction from his players. This is unlikely to be a third tonking for the Rovers though, because only once in their last nine games have Brighton scored more than one goal. The Seagulls have a few creative, intelligent players, but up front they will lack a proven goalscorer until Ulloa returns. A Doncaster team who have been trounced in their last two, against Brighton who are without a win in five. Neither side are in good enough shape to be fancied to win this one, 1-1.

Leeds vs. Yeovil

Yeovil’s 3-1 win over Forest last week will give fans hope that they can compete in this league, and they are now only one point away from safety. The Championship often pulls out strange results like that, though, and it does not change my view that Yeovil lack the experience to stay up. Leeds are chasing a third successive home win, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, because the Whites have lost their last four away from home. In the striking department, they are benefitting from Ross McCormack playing further forward alongside Matt Smith, with Rodolph Austin given more of an attacking role. Yeovil’s win last week was little more than a one-off as I see it, and this should be a comfortable home win for Leeds. 2-0.

Millwall vs. Burnley

Burnley’s success story continued last week with a win over QPR, and the Clarets have won to nil in four of their last five games. They are looking incredibly well organised. The highlights of their game against QPR showed them getting men behind the ball when they need to, working as a unit, with Ings and Vokes being able to do the damage up front. Millwall have shown some battling qualities in recent weeks. Following two heavy defeats by Birmingham and Bournemouth, they came from behind against both QPR and Reading, who are much higher in the league, to earn two draws. The comeback spirit Lomas has instilled into the Lions will serve the team well as the season goes on, but with the way Burnley are defending at the moment, if they get the first goal they are going to win. 0-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Blackpool

The likes of Derby, Watford and Wigan will be hoping that one of these teams falls from the play-off places in the run up to Christmas. It looks possible, because the size and proven quality of Blackpool’s squad suggests that they won’t be able to keep their form up for much longer, plus the stadium ban for Paul Ince will not help them. Forest have recently dropped points against two of last season’s promoted clubs, and Billy Davies’s side have only kept one clean sheet in their last ten. A persistent injury problem for Kelvin Wilson this season, has made it difficult for Forest to rediscover their defensive nous. If this match is a draw and most of the teams below on seventeen and nineteen points win, the play-off chase will become interesting. 1-1.

QPR vs. Derby

QPR started this season looking unbeatable defensively and they were grinding out 1-0 wins left, right and centre. But just as I started contradicting my pre-season tip for them to struggle, they have now gone three games without a win, although all games were away from home. It is surprising given the wealth of experience in their team, but they should bounce back, and if they can complete the signing of Emmanuel Adebayor that would boost their attack force. Derby will be disappointed to have dropped points against Birmingham last week, although they had a lot of possession they didn’t create much on that occasion. Even though the Rams have the joint-best scoring record in the division, I would back QPR to return to winning ways with a clean sheet. 1-0.

Sheff Wed vs. Reading

The rumour is that if Wednesday fail to win this match, Dave Jones will be sacked. It would be the right decision from the board, because to be without a win before November is shocking, and the players need a manager who will shake them up a bit. That said, the Wednesday board have backed him in the loan market to bring in Connor Wickham, as well as Matty Fryatt recently, so this is the last roll of the dice for Jones. It will be a kick in the teeth for Reading to have conceded the late penalty at home to Millwall last week, especially as their opponents were down to ten men, but Nigel Adkins is a good manager and should get them focused for this one. I’ve got a feeling Jones might be looking on Gumtree on Sunday morning. 1-3.

Wigan vs. Huddersfield

Huddersfield’s win in the West Yorkshire derby last week means they are still among a group of teams hoping to elevate themselves into the play-offs. A positive for the Terriers, is that they are starting to show that they can score goals without the much-lauded James Vaughan. Each of their last five goals have not been scored by him, and his suspension may inadvertently improve the confidence of the team. If the likes of Jon Stead up front and Joel Ward from the wing start scoring as they did last week, that will create a healthy sense of competition within the squad. Wigan’s record of four wins, four draws and four defeats sums up their inconsistency, and at the moment the problem is scoring goals. Wigan have a new contract for McManaman and a loan move for Albrighton. Both will add width, but Wigan’s priority is a goalscorer, because they have plenty of wide men and only two strikers with questionable fitness. The Latics are unbeaten at home though so they will get a narrow 2-1 win here.