An Interview for Leeds All Over

Ahead of Birmingham's match at Elland Road, I was asked a few questions by Leeds United based website LeedsAllOver...

Loss of Davies this summer

Firstly, how do you see Birmingham doing this season and do you consider yourself stronger or weaker than last season?

Difficult to say. On paper you might argue we’ve weakened ourselves, because we’re lower in the table now than where we finished last season, and we’ve lost a key defender in Curtis Davies. On the flip side, the games we’ve lost have been very tight contests, and against the teams who are aiming for promotion – notably Watford, Leicester, QPR and Reading. Because of the financial situation at the club, we’ve had to change the makeup of the squad every summer since our relegation, and every season we’ve started relatively slowly, so I’m a believer that it always takes time for players to settle. This season we’ve converted to a three at the back system, which will help us in the long run. Will we finish higher than twelfth of last season? Maybe not, but performances have been encouraging – I firmly believe we’ll be a long way off the relegation places come the end of the season.

How have you been getting on this season? Obviously, we know the results but sometimes that doesn’t tell the whole story.

There are positives we can take from our first three months. The thing I like about the way we're playing is that every player on the pitch is playing their heart out for the team, the commitment and passion is always there. As a fan, that’s what I want to see. The problem has been scoring goals, and taking our chances at important times. The return from injury of Nikola Zigic might help us on that front, as hard as Lee Novak works off the ball, he doesn’t have that bit of confidence under pressure when he receives it. Having played in the Conference last season, Matt Green is unproven at this level. He needs to gradually ease his way into the team, and not have that immediate pressure of being our main goalscorer. I have high hopes for loanee Jesse Lingard, but I also have high doubts that we’ll keep him for much longer than another couple of months - a better team will soon want him on loan. On reflection, I’m quietly encouraged.

Divides opinion - Clark

What’s the general opinion of Lee Clark as your manager?

Some fans like him, some fans can’t take him seriously, some fans think the quality of manager won’t matter until we change the owners. The positives are: he’s attracted some decent players on a shoestring budget, hasn’t been afraid to give youth a chance, and he certainly got the best out of them in the second half of last season. With a terrible injury crisis, talk of relegation, and a large proportion of players from the academy forced into the spotlight, we hit almost play-off form and climaxed to a top half finish. Clark must take credit for that.

The negatives are: he’s not the most convincing in front of the media, can be a bit of an excuse merchant when it comes to certain incidents, makes the odd baffling comment and looks at the floor in a way which doesn’t always exude confidence. He’s something of a tactics tinkerer as well, chops and changes his team a lot, questionably swapping from 3 at the back to 4-4-2, seemingly based on a single bad result. He’s no miracle-worker, but personally I can see past his weaknesses, because he’s a very young manager and one of the few who wanted the job initially. He’ll grow into the role as well, and I sincerely hope that a new board would give him a chance, rather than walk in with their own agenda.

What’s the general opinion of Leeds United from a Birmingham City supporter?

I’ll be honest - a lot of Birmingham City fans hate you! I get the impression it’s mainly because of the ‘Dirty Leeds’ days. I don’t mind your lot though. When you came to St Andrews last time, you were probably the best away fans we saw all season, had a massive allocation and sang all game. In reality, our supporters could probably learn from the passionate fanbase of some of the northern clubs. There’s a slight culture of apathy around St Andrews at the moment. On the Don Revie era, the 60s/70s was long before I was born, but I feel hating a side because they’re dirty is a bit of an excuse to have a go at a good team. If Billy Bremner had played for Birmingham City, we would have all idolised him. That’s the nature of the game.

Key man - Burke

During the January transfer window and again last window we were linked to Chris Burke, do you consider him to be a good player and someone who is central to your team?

No. He’s a rubbish player. Really not worth buying.

Who should we look out for as your danger man?

In all seriousness, Burke is definitely our best player. Every time he gets the ball you have a feeling that he’ll do something magical with it, he scares the hell out of fullbacks and as a fan, he gets you to the edge of your seat. That said, I don’t think he would do it in the Premier League, where defenders are made of sterner stuff. He’s 30 now, so I feel the Championship is the right league for him. Whether that’s with Birmingham is another matter…

One player I haven’t mentioned is our goalkeeper, Darren Randolph. He has looked very reliable for us, had a great record up in Scotland with Motherwell, and at the age of 26, his best goalkeeping years are right ahead of him. Once Peter Pannu realises there might be a few hundred grand of a transfer fee in him though, he’ll probably be gone in January!

What formation will you likely play?

3-4-3. Clark started the season playing 3-5-2, which made us a lot more solid at the back, but the big dilemma was that we couldn’t fit Chris Burke into the team. He couldn’t have played wingback because he’s a natural winger, not defensive-minded enough. Clark made the right decision in my view, to play him instead of a second striker, as a right-sided forward cutting in. He also brought in Jesse Lingard to suit that system, and play a similar role on the left. If he uses this tactic consistently, hopefully the players will become accustomed to it and some more positive results will come.

What will be your likely line up?

Randolph

Zigic netted four at Elland Road

Spector-Burn-Robinson

Caddis-Adeyami-Reilly-Murphy

Burke-Zigic-Lingard

Not sure about the fitness levels of Murphy and Zigic, if not picked, they’ll probably be replaced by Shane Ferguson and Matt Green respectively. I certainly hope Zigic plays - in the 2011-12 season, five of his seven goals came against you!

Any players from Leeds that you would like to sign?

We could do with an ‘out-and-out’ goalscorer, but you don’t seem to have that yourselves! The obvious choice would be Ross McCormack, but we’ve already got a few players who play in his kind of position, in the hole. I would maybe say Luke Murphy, he looks like a good young player, and would add a physical presence to our midfield.

Finally, prediction for the game?

I would be content with a draw. You had one of the best home records in the Championship last season, so I think this will be a difficult game for us. The thing that stands out for me, is that we both play quite narrowly, and neither team has wingers, so the game could be a bit bogged down in the middle of the park. You’ve not really got a reliable goalscorer now Becchio has gone, and we’ve not scored in any of our last three away games. This has the look of a 0-0 draw for me.

My thanks to Stuart Footit for the questions.

Solihull Moors 4-0 Worksop Town: Match Report

Solihull Moors got a 4-0 win over Worksop Town on Saturday, to put themselves in the hat for the FA Cup fourth qualifying round draw. A brace from Ryan Beswick, and goals from Omar Bogle and Rob Elvins contributed to a scoreline which perhaps flattered the Moors, but it was their proficiency on the counter attack which was the main factor in the win.

Marcus Bignot made three changes from the team which drew at home to Bradford Park Avenue last week. According to the programme, Dom Langdon was starting as number two, but it appeared to be Junior English who the fans were referring to in that shirt during the game. In other changes, Gary Birch and Aron Wint were dropped to the bench in favour of Darryl Knights and Omar Bogle. The visitors from east of Sheffield had only booked their place in the round with a 5-3 win on Wednesday, in spite of a late rally from Shelley Town, four divisions below. On Saturday, they made four changes from that match, indicating Mark Shaw’s willingness to keep players fresh.

It was a clash between one of England’s oldest non-league clubs, and one of the youngest, with a massive 146 year gap between their respective foundings. Between the year Worksop Town were founded, 1861, and the year Solihull Moors were founded, 2007, England has had 40 different prime ministers.

Moors started much the brighter team, and in the opening minute, a Ryan Beswick cross from the left was fired just over by Omar Bogle. With such an attacking start from Solihull, it looked as though the gulf in age wouldn’t be the only one between the two teams. In the opening period, Moors favoured an adventurous passing game, preferring to get the ball to the flanks at the first opportunity, rather than pass to feet.

Jay Denny was to play an important, Michael Carrick-esque role in midfield, dropping deep to help the defence guard against Worksop attacks, and then spraying it out wide. He made up for one slightly overhit crossfield ball in the opening minutes, by contributing to the first goal. A through ball down the right for Peter Till to get the better of Phil Roe, and a dinked cross from him to the back post ended up finding Ryan Beswick, who nodded the ball home to give Solihull an early lead.

Shortly afterwards, Moors clenched their firm grip of the game, and searched for a second. A clever piece of play from Till won a free-kick, taken unexpectedly quickly by Bogle who found Till on the right, he gambled on an early cross but there unfortunately weren’t enough bodies forward. Worksop offered little in the way of creativity, particularly in the first fifteen minutes. They relied on a very tall and strong number nine in Tom Denton to spearhead their attacks, which were normally route one goal kicks from the keeper. A powerful snapshot from range by Shane Clarke, and a misdirected back-post header from Denton, was the closest Worksop came shortly after the goal.

On 20 minutes, a scrappy phase in the game then emerged where neither side’s play developed any real momentum, and the two teams kept giving the ball away. Darryl Knights looped a free-kick over the bar for the Moors, and shortly after Jay Denny’s shot was tipped wide by Hallam. As the rain began to pelt, Worksop continued their direct style of play, which forced a one-on-one save by Singh from Mettam. Singh was to go on to have a good game, but Solihull Moors deserved much credit for the way they defended, they looked a real unit at the back. The players never shirked their defensive duties, always crowded the box and normally restricted Worksop to long range efforts.

It was Moors who had the final say of the half. Worksop were given a warning when Till’s cross was scrambled goalwards and cleared off the line by Jordan Lemon, but his reflexes were to be in vain. Less than a minute later, a through ball from midfield found Bogle, who tucked it into the near corner. Bogle could consider himself a little lucky with the goal, because he didn’t do much else that afternoon. He struck me as not the hardest worker when it comes to work rate off the ball, but one who has that bit of quality when it matters. The half-time whistle sounded leaving the score at 2-0, and Worksop with a very difficult ask to crawl back into the FA Cup hat.

But The Tigers provided some encouragement for their 100-odd fans who made the trip over, with an improved performance after the restart. Whereas in the first half, their play was entirely route one, in the first ten minutes of the second, they upped the tempo, and had long spells of possession. Leon Mettam latched onto Pierpoint’s poorly placed pass, and forced another good save from Singh. At the age of 20, the goalkeeper looks to have potential to play in the Football League.

After a couple of dangerous headers from Denton, Worksop’s positive attacking play transcended into a series of counter attacks for Solihull. The visitors’ defence pressed high up the pitch, which inevitably allowed more space in behind for Solihull, with the pace of Beswick and substitute Aron Wint.

As much as Worksop continued to get the ball forward, from the 60 minute mark onwards, it was only ever Solihull who looked like scoring. Following a corner from the left, there was a scramble in the box and close-range efforts from Gough and Bogle forced a double save from the keeper. A comical moment from PA man Paul Collins, otherwise known as 'Gabbie Cabbie' shortly followed, getting the numbers of a Worksop substitute mixed up, before correcting himself! Not that Moors fans will have cared, because they had their third goal which killed off the tie, from Rob Elvins. A throw-in from the left found the feet of their captain, who hammered the ball home from just outside the six-yard box, and the Moors’ place in the next round was well and truly booked.

Once Singh had completed his afternoon’s work by forcing Tom Denton to dribble too far wide of the goal when one-on-one, it was only a question of how many for Solihull. And it was a case of three bites at the cherry for Beswick. Latching onto a clearance he found himself one-one-one with keeper Hallam, who saved his effort. But just a few minutes later, another scenario almost identical for the winger, a block from Hallam’s feet this time, before Beswick rolled the ball into an empty net to clinch a brace.

4-0, Moors now winning in style, and Gary Birch came on for Bogle, with the remaining minutes very much a foregone conclusion. Birch seemed to be a popular figure, as Gabbie announced him as ‘number 20, BIRRRRRRCHY!... Gary Birch.’ He came onto the pitch to enthusiastic applause and chants of ‘Birchy’s gonna get ya’. Looking at him, he was a rather stocky bloke, at first I was slightly surprised the fans had taken to him so much. But in terms of his reading of the game, he was very impressive; think a not-so-good Dimitar Berbatov and you won’t be too far off. His vision and awareness was spot on, in one of his first touches he executed a very well weighted pass to the opposite flank. On a counter attack, he found space outside the box to receive a cut-back from Wint, he layed-off a ball for Beswick, who had moved to the right, but his cross went unattended.

Admirably, the Worksop players still looked desperate to restore some minor credibility from the scoreline and grab a goal back, and they kept pluckily pushing men forward. But in the final 10 minutes, Wint’s pace as a fresh substitute became key to the Moors’ counter-attacking moves, and Worksop’s naivety at the back was nearly punished further. An excellent first touch, controlling the ball at height, confused Chris Salt and as he narrowed down on goal, his shot hit the near post.

The full-time whistle came at 4-0, with Moors through to the fourth qualifying round, although the scoreline perhaps didn’t reflect the whole story. Some humorous chants from fans in good spirits, of: “we’ll be running round Touchwood with the cup!” and also:

“we are unbeatable”. The Moors, and also Brackley Town, remain the only team unbeaten in Skrill North division, but in the next few weeks, they might just celebrating a run in the cup as well.

The Brilliance of Three at the Back

Alan Hansen was talking a bit of nonsense, as per usual, on Match of the Day 3 this week. The most interesting point, was when asked by Mark Chapman: "do you like three at the back?" (the tactical system). His answer, rather than being: "I don't like three at the back" was:

"I've never liked three at the back"

It's an interesting choice of words, because it typifies Hansen's 'fuddy-duddy' mentality. He has seemingly made his Match of the Day career by saying the same thing every week, and doesn't appear to want to learn or examine different approaches to football. It's as if he's allergic to foreign, new and downright better tactical systems than the 'good ol' fashioned, tight, no messing about 4-4-2'. 

The main thing he cited to justify his dislike for the three at the back system, was that most teams play with one up front now, therefore you need two defenders: one to mark, one to cover. If you have three centre-backs marking one player, you lose out in the middle of the pitch and get overrun. This analysis is so flawed, it genuinely made me laugh.

Firstly, to think that three defenders are only defending against one player is tactical naivety at it's finest. He stands firmly by his rigid principles of his Liverpool days, that everyone is still man-to-man marking. It's not true. It is common for teams recently to play with one 'out-and-out' striker, but simply because they have two or three attacking midfielders in behind. Either in a 4-5-1/4-3-3 with two inside forwards cutting in like at Barcelona, or in a 4-2-3-1 with three attacking midfielders designed to create like at Man City and Chelsea. Either of those formations tear the 4-4-2 to shreds, simply because of their flexibility, and flexibility is the key to success in modern football.

These are the advantages of back three formations:

1. You can incorporate three centre-backs

It's a common misconception about a 3-5-2 that it makes a team more vulnerable defensively. It's an understandable theory, because there is one less recognized defender, and what looks like a massive gap on either wing. Whilst exposure on the flanks is a limit of this system, it's not right to say that an opponent will get more crosses in; and therefore they'll score more goals. With three centre-backs, you can have one man marking the main striker, and two others picking up late runners from deep. This is where the 4-4-2 falls short, without an ultra defensive-minded midfielder (in which case the 4-4-2 would lose out in controlling the centre), because one defender marks the main striker. It leaves only one centre-back to pick runners up, forcing your fullback to move inside, thus creating space for an opposing attacking fullback on the other side. 

A side-product of having three centre-backs, is that the team is much more effective in the air, because defenders are naturally built to be big, strong men. More aerially duals will be won, which is especially useful in set piece situations, where the ball is nearly always whipped in high. For defending free kicks and corners, you have three very accomplished markers handy, and attacking them, your team will provide more of an aerial threat.

2. It can be surprisingly effective for counter-attacking

On paper, you wouldn't expect counter-attacking to be a theme of a 3-5-2. You associate with counter-attacks very direct football, so players will be spread out, wingers will hug the touchline to draw men out and create space in behind. The 3-5-2 seems to be the opposite of that, because there are three central midfielders bunched together, and wide men who look as though they have the defensive responsibility of a fullback, and so can't burst forward. With that in mind, the obvious approach is to be constantly looking to utilize the extra man in midfield, play a very patient, probing game, and only pass it out wide when the wing-backs are comfortable enough to get forward.

And indeed, some teams do do that, but it's not the only way the 3-5-2 works. I've already mentioned how having three centre backs does a lot to negate the threat of opponents running from midfield, and getting into the box unmarked, because there's normally a spare defender. This means that teams playing against the 3-5-2 know that to score, they have two choices. They can either try their luck from long range, which rarely succeeds and essentially gives the 3-5-2 team the ball back when the shot is unsuccessful.

But the second option is to attempt to overload the penalty area. This is where our 3-5-2 team can counter-attack to devastating effect. As the opponents push men forward from midfield, the 3-5-2 team has plenty of spare men in midfield, who can track back. Not only does this deny the opponents any space in the box, but it also relinquishes the defensive duty of the wing-backs. Therefore, when the opponents have an unsuccessful shot, the ball can be cleared quickly to the flanks.

All of a sudden, the opposing fullbacks who were initially looking to support the attack are backpedaling, and the 3-5-2 team has four men forward available to counter: the two wingbacks, and the two forward men. The perfect example of this, was when Watford played Bournemouth on the second match of the 13/14 Championship season. Bournemouth had 66% possession and controlled a lot of the game, but with the score at 3-1, they kept pushing men forward to try and get level, and Watford scored three goals from counter attacks. 

3. A numerical advantage in midfield

With three central midfielders, you always have a numbers in the middle of the park, which gives a team more tactical variability. Against a classic 4-4-2, two of your central midfielders can focus on their opponents, whilst there is a spare man available, which is a very big asset. This man can be used in a number of ways. Away from home against a top team where you'd perhaps settle for a point, you can use a defensive midfielder, someone who can break up attacks quickly and provide cover. Or a deep-lying midfielder, someone in the 'Pirlo role', who can use their knowhow to read the game, intercept passes and get the team moving.

Alternatively, if the manager wants to give his team a more adventurous look, the third man can be an attacking midfielder. This is also extremely useful against 4-4-2, because of the big gap between defence and midfield. An attacking midfielder can operate in the space, therefore he'll have time to wait for the wingbacks to break forward before spraying out wide. Or, he can run at the defence, draw a defender out and slip a through ball to one of the strikers. 

It's only one spare man in midfield, but that option is key to the flexibility of the 3-5-2. For a defensive midfielder, the team can convert to a 3-1-4-2, or for an attacking one, it can change to a 3-4-1-2 depending on how deep the other two midfielders chose to sit, and how far the wingbacks push forward. If a manager has both a defensive and attacking midfielder in the squad, it means the tactic can be altered with regard to different circumstances. Whereas with just a 4-4-2, there's no room for maneuver, because both central midfielders are forced to stay in their area. If they push too far forward to support the attack, the team gets overrun in midfield, if they sit too far back, the team loses a grip on the game. With three midfielders, there is a lot more choice.

4. Pressure on the ball

A variation of 3-5-2 which is likely to become popular in the next few years, is the 3-4-1-2. It's the three at the back ideologists' answer to the 4-2-3-1 formation, which has become used by a lot of the top clubs around Europe. If you have two midfielders sitting relatively deep, this makes the team very adaptable for any situation on the pitch. 

For example, if the left wing-back bombs forward with the ball, the left-sided deep midfielder can move over towards the left-back position to provide cover, should the wing-back give it away. Then, the right-sided deep midfielder can move towards the left, and the right wing-back can move inside and take up a more defensive responsibility. That way, the only circumstances in which the gaps in the team can be exploited should the left wing-back lose it, is if the opponent who tackled him switches a perfect crossfield ball to a winger on the opposite side. It takes a certain level of technical ability for a player to be able to do that, and it's unlikely that any defender could pull it off. Therefore, by the time the ball gets to a more technically proficient player on the opposition's team, the 3-4-1-2 side has time to re-assume it's default setup.

The key is, with a variation of the 3-5-2 tactic, players have freedom to move towards the ball in groups. Of course this opens up spaces elsewhere, but spaces on the opposite side of the pitch which only a player with a certain technical ability, can reach with one pass. Therefore, the system is excellent for teams who want to apply pressure on the ball.

5. Conclusion

With the three at the back system, a lot more teams have succeeded than failed. Hull and Watford did very well with it last season, finishing 2nd and 3rd respectively, a large proportion of their goals originating from their wing-backs. Juventus won the Serie A for two seasons in a row and reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League, while Italy reached the 2012 European Championships final with three at the back, only to tragically change it when they played Spain. With adventurous fullbacks in Glen Johnson and Luis Enrique in their squad, Liverpool have now gambled on a wingback system, and have started the season in excellent form.

It's a recurring problem in football that with the TV money available, more and more foreign chairmen get involved, not understanding how football works. They sack managers after a few bad results, so managers are constantly fearing for their jobs, and are less likely to try out a new tactical formation which will take time for players to get used to. Three at the back is a system which players will always take time to get used to, so not many managers want to put their jobs at risk. Interestingly, the five Championship managers who have been inspired by Hull and Watford's success last season to apply three at the back for their own club, are the managers who consider their job relatively safe. Zola has the same players who used it so well at Watford last season, David Flitcroft and Chris Powell are considered legends at Barnsley and Charlton respectively, whilst in their financial situation the Birmingham board are unlikely to sack Lee Clark and pay his compensation. Mark Robins at Huddersfield perhaps being the exception to the rule.

If chairmen have patience with their manager who want to use this system, and they maintain a consistent playing staff, the formation will definitely blossom. With tactical flexibility and numerical advantages in key areas, the three at the back tactic will grow ever more popular.

Why Tony Pulis is the man for Derby

It's clear that Derby County are a club looking for a change of direction. They've spent four years under Nigel Clough, slap-bang in the middle of the Championship table, employing a very ethical approach with the ex-Burton Albion man at the helm. He has done a very good job for the Rams, and is bound to become a manager many look up to in terms of loyalty and trust in young players, yet change is needed for Derby to progress.

In January 2009, the club were having a torrid time. They had been dubbed 'the worst ever Premier League team' the previous season, finishing bottom with just eleven points, and the first half of this season hadn't give Derby fans much reason to be optimistic. With Paul Jewell in charge, they were now languishing 18th in the Championship and just a few points above the drop zone. It was clear things weren't going well.

Jewell was subsequently sacked and Nigel Clough, who had been manager at Burton Albion for eleven years, took the job. He immediately revolutionized the club's youth recruitment network, always brought in young, hungry players, and with little funds made available, he preferred to look to the club's academy to fill a gap in the team, rather than to sign players on temporary, short-term deals. He was always looking to the future, and to some extent this approach paid off, because since his appointment Derby finished higher than in the previous campaign every season, until 2013.

The club became the Championship equivalent of Arsenal. They had one of the youngest squads in the league, made sure they swept up all the best local talent from a young age, and they always played their football with a frenetic energy, looking to get the ball from either box quickly.

However, Clough's passion for youth, and bringing through players who could play exciting football, came at a cost defensively. 254 goals were conceded in 4 seasons, that's an average of 64 per season and 1.4 per game, perhaps due to naivety at the back. Out of all Derby's defenders since Nigel Clough had been in charge, only Gareth Roberts was in his 30s. The team lacked defensive experience, organisation and leadership.

There's also an issue with spending, as the Arsenal similarities continue. Since he took over, Clough only spent a net total of £0.4 million over the course of four years, making a profit in a lot of the transfer windows. In addition, they were very shrewd with their wage structure, because few players at the club are currently earning more than £10,000 per week. Contrastly, Cardiff and Hull who gained automatic promotion last season, spent around £5 million improving the squad. Derby haven't done that, and it's going to get harder and harder for them to compete at the right end of the table with their current business model. The Championship is growing ever more competitive, due to foreign players coming into the Premier League, pushing the best English talent downwards.

There are two contrasting viewpoints on the reasons behind the lack of spending at Pride Park. Some believe that Derby chairman Andrew Appleby has denied Clough the funds to buy the players he wants, and so he has been forced to promote youth to fill the squad. Some believe that Appleby has given Clough the transfer backing, but he's merely opted to develop youth instead. The reality is probably somewhere in between.

It's unlikely Clough has stubbornly rejected any possible opportunity to improve the squad, because he spent £2 million last season on some experienced players in Conor Sammon and Richard Keogh. On the other hand, Appleby was never throwing blank cheques in Clough's face. Appleby is an American businessman, and as with most foreign chairmen, his interior motives for taking over at Derby in the first place were likely to be financial - the club were in the Premier League at the time.

Initially he wanted to establish the Rams as a top flight club, for the TV money, but he spotted potential for profit in Clough's approach. By spending very little each year, because of big attendances, the club make a lot of money. For arguments sake, if there are 23,000 season ticket holders (excluding individual match tickets etc.), and each season ticket costs £400, that's £9 million, plus money from food and programmes. 

Knowing that the club would always be safe in midtable under Clough's guidance, the Derby board were quite happy with the way things were going. Clough was a man passionate about developing youth, he wasn't going to put heavy pressure on Appleby to spend money, when he enjoys getting the best out of young players and believes that to be the way forward. Whilst Appleby, as a businessman, was never going to insist Clough spent his own money if he was making cash with the current system. The way the club was run indirectly suited all parties.

But now the Derby board have more ambition. Appleby feeling he won't reach his ultimate aim of the TV money jackpot in the Premier League with Clough's nuturing approach. A change of direction will be perfectly healthy for the club, and here's why Tony Pulis should be the next Derby manager.

1 - He will tighten up the defence

Under Pulis, Stoke only conceded 249 goals in 5 Premier League seasons. That's an average of 50 per season, and 1.3 per game. In their first season in the top flight, the Potters conceded just 15 home goals. On two occassions, they had the best defensive record of all teams in the bottom half of the table. Pulis has learnt that defensive organisation is key, not only to promotion, but to establishing a club in the Premier League. 35 of promoted Cardiff and Hull's collective 49 wins came by just one goal. Very few times in a season, will top teams win 3 or 4-0 and play perfect football. A large number of times, will teams win 1-0 or 2-1, and have to defend a lead in the last 25 minutes. The difference between promotion, and staying down therefore, is the ability to stay strong defensively. Derby have the talent and potential going forward, but they need to develop a tough, winning mentality at the back, which Pulis will instill.

2 - A more direct style may suit them

The criticisms of Pulis' possible move to Derby are that his 'tackle, hoof' gameplan won't be suitable for a Derby team that is relatively small. Derby's midfield may be more gifted technically than in the air, but the Rams have two target men in their squad in Chris Martin and Conor Sammon. If Martin, the more regular starter can hold the ball up, Derby have plenty of players capable of running from deep in Will Hughes, Jamie Ward and new signing Johnny Russell, who likes to drop off the main striker. Overloading the penalty box quickly will make those players harder to mark, their runs will become more difficult to track. Even if Pulis would favour a route one system from the back, that doesn't take away the technical ability Derby have in midfield, it adds an extra dimension. If the opposition defend a long ball, Will Hughes will receive it in midfield, and he can still dictate play. 

3 - Who else is there?

The odds currently have Steve McLaren, Michael Appleton and Martin O'Neill as the 'favourites'. Whilst I don't blame McLaren solely for his failure with the national team, it will be a massive risk for any club to appoint him, given the pressure he'll be under from opposition fans and media, it will be difficult for him to settle at Derby. Appleton is a very young manager at 37, each of the four manager jobs he's been given in his career, he's not managed to stay for longer than a few months. Martin O'Neill looked out of energy at the end of his time with Sunderland, and for five years managed Derby's rivals Leicester City.

Pulis has experience of managing in the Premier League - successfully. He achieved his aim of making Stoke a consistent feature in the top flight. Even at the expense of playing attractive football and bringing through youth, most Championship clubs would settle for being in the biggest league in the world. That's where Derby can reach if they appoint Tony Pulis.

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Six

Premier League

Tottenham vs. Chelsea

Friends re-united?

This game sees Mourinho meet up with his old friend Villas-Boas, who in my view played an understated part in the Special One’s previous success at Chelsea and Inter Milan. Whilst Mourinho was the enigma in the limelight, AVB was the tactical brains behind the operation, and managing without him will be the Special One’s big challenge at Chelsea. Both managers, rightly, made wholesale changes for their Capital One Cup matches midweek and strong performances give both men something to think about for future games. I’ve got a feeling AVB’s side can topple Mourinho’s men here, although Chelsea have a lot of talented attacking players in their team, I would fancy Spurs to cut the supply to them  by controlling the midfield with players like Dembele and Paulinho in the centre. Spurs to win 1-0.

Aston Villa vs. Man City

How will Villa cope without Benteke?

Aston Villa only won five home games last season, they never seem to excel in front of their own fans, so this should be no problem for a Manchester City team who have scored twelve goals in the last week and a half. The Citizen’s are on a real high at the moment, and perhaps a small piece of humble pie can be eaten on my part with regard to Manuel Pellegrini. I thought he might struggle to settle at City due to the language barrier, they had started poorly, but he’s turned it around and to get such a big win over Manchester United will give everyone a lift. Villa are now without Christian Benteke for six weeks, so their chances of getting an unlikely point depend largely on whether Brad Guzan can have a stormer again. They’ve relied on the American a lot, I feel the quality City have in their team will give him too much to do. 0-3.

Fulham vs. Cardiff

Martin Jol's side start the weekend in the drop zone

This is a big game for Fulham, because four points from five games is a disappointing start, even though they’ve played the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea. Cardiff, who have shown promise early on in their campaign, will provide tough opposition. They’ve had close matches against top teams in Manchester City, Everton and Tottenham at home, and if this was in Cardiff I would definitely fancy them for the win. As they’re playing away, they’re more likely to settle for a point and I think it’ll be a case of them defending doggedly to get it at 0-0.

Hull vs. West Ham

How will the injury to James Chester affect Hull?

An excellent start to the season for newly-promoted Hull. They’ve taken seven points from their first five, despite having already played away against two of last season’s top three teams. My pre-season tip for them to surprise people and stay up comfortably is looking good so far. But both teams are having to contend with early season injury problems, Hull have added James Chester to their list, whilst West Ham are still without a few regular first teamers alongside Andy Carroll. That said, their 3-2 win over Cardiff in the cup will give the Hammers confidence that they can still score goals without him. This is the first of four winnable home games for Hull, but because they’re eleventh, they wouldn’t be too disappointed if this was a draw, and neither would West Ham. Allardyce seems to see most points away from home as a bonus, so I a 1-1 draw seems the most likely outcome.

Man Utd vs. West Brom

Can Moyes turn things around at Old Trafford?

Time for Manchester United to grind out the results. It has to be said they’ve started poorly, taking just one point from the three big games, losing 4-1 at City is a massive blow, and beating Liverpool in the cup will only take some of the sting out of that defeat. The challenge now for Moyes is to repair the damage quickly, and get the team going on a run of wins. I distinctly remember when United lost 6-1, that they won their next three games 1-0, and that’s what Moyes needs to do. Performances are secondary at this stage. West Brom needed that win over Sunderland last week, because this is the start of a hard fixture period for them. The Baggies are a tightly-knit team, having conceded just five goals from seven games in all competitions, so they won’t make it easy for United. The Red Devils to get an important three points with a 1-0 win, it might be tighter than most expect though.

Southampton vs. Crystal Palace

Dejan Lovren has settled in well at Southampton

This match sees the team with the most injury problems in the Premier League host the team with the least. A surprise win for Southampton at Anfield took them up to seventh in the table, although they remain the league’s joint-second lowest scoring team, but that only testifies how well Fonte and Lovren have settled in together at centre-back. You’d have to back them to keep a clean sheet against Crystal Palace, too, as the Eagles are playing quite conservatively at the moment, with five in midfield and the inexperienced Dwight Gayle on his own up front. Southampton’s attack hasn’t quite clicked yet, but the good result they’ve had last week will always breed confidence, so I’ve got a feeling this will be the day that the Saints see the best of £15 million man Osvaldo. The Argentine will help them on their way to a 3-0 win.

Swansea vs. Arsenal

Arsenal chase ninth successive victory

If you’d told Arsenal fans on the underground back from their 3-1 defeat from Aston Villa on the opening day, that they would now be top of the league with twelve points, they would take some convincing. Much credit needs to go to Arsene Wenger for how he’s dealt with the pressure once again, and with joint-top Tottenham playing Chelsea in the early game, Arsenal could well be two points clear on Saturday night. Having made ten changes, Swansea won’t be too disappointed with their 3-1 defeat to Birmingham in the cup, and it was probably the right thing to do with such a tough game at the weekend. Yes, only two teams have scored more goals than Swansea this season, but there’s always a flipside – only three teams have scored less. Arsenal will do the business, even without Theo Walcott. 1-3.

Stoke vs. Norwich

Hughton under pressure from minority of Norwich fans

I was talking to a Norwich fan on Twitter who wants Chris Hughton out. Although I disagreed, when you spend as much as the Canaries have done this summer there’s always an element of expectation. Norwich have started slowly, with their new players taking time to settle in, but the worrying thing for Norwich is that after this match, they play Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City in their next few games. A slightly disappointing result for Stoke last week, conceding two goals from set pieces to Arsenal, when I thought their aerial threat would be their trump card. They’ve only conceded two other goals so far though, so they can beat this slightly out of sorts Norwich team 2-1.

Sunderland vs. Liverpool

Will Kevin Ball re-organise Sunderland?

It’s a complete unknown how the Sunderland players will approach this game. They might rally around their new manager after the revolt against Di Canio, or the fact that Alan Ball is only there on a temporary basis could be a little bit unsettling, they might not be fighting as hard to impress in training as they would for a manager there for the long haul. It’s difficult to tell, especially with so many new players still trying to settle into the squad. Liverpool, having started the season on a real high, have now lost their last two matches. It might take Luis Suarez a few games to refind his old form, and the other factor is that the Reds fielded a very strong team for the North-West derby in the cup on Wednesday, they might be a little tired from that match. I’m going to sit on the fence and say a 1-1 draw.

Everton vs. Newcastle

Will Baines score another free-kick?

I didn’t expect Newcastle to lose at home to Hull, especially after back-to-back wins, and it’ll be interesting to see how they respond. With such an inconsistent start, it looks like it’ll be midtable finish for the Magpies this season. Everton remain the only unbeaten team in the Premier League, to be able to go to an intimidating place in Upton Park and score three goals, coming from behind shows that the players have a lot of self-belief under Roberto Martinez. I’d fancy Everton to win this 2-1.

The Championship

Huddersfield vs. Blackpool

Will James Vaughan net again?

Two of the early season eye-catchers go head-to-head Friday night, and it's difficult to split them. Two-thirds of Huddersfield's points this season have come from home games, they're currently averaging two points per game at the John Smith's stadium, or the McAlpine, as it should be called. I don't go along with criticisms that they're relying too much on James Vaughan, because it breeds confidence having a reliable goalscorer, and defensively the Terriers been sound - only QPR have conceded more goals. I've already predicted Blackpool to lose five times this season, and been proved wrong on every occassion, but I do feel that after taking one point from their last two, they're about to fall away from the chasing pack. 1-0.

Nottm Forest vs. Derby

Forest have missed Kelvin Wilson at the back

Gabriel This is Derby's second... derby, of the week, this time they face their old manager, Billy Davies. Derby have been extremely inconsistent this season.  Another home defeat against Reading last week, but they do have an ability to conjure up a brilliant away performance out of the blue, so predicting their games can be a nightmare. I've been looking through Nottingham Forest's results, defensively they've struggled over the last few weeks but the key reason in my eyes is the loss of Kelvin Wilson in defence. With him in the team, they conceded six goals in seven games, but without him, they've conceded six in three. He's a doubt for the weekend though, so I'll take a stab in the dark and say Derby will surprise again, and win 2-3.

Bolton vs. Yeovil

Will Neil Danns improve Bolton's midfield?

The scene is set very much for Bolton to get that first win and move off the bottom, but I've got a hunch Yeovil will excel in this kind of game. Things just aren't going to plan for Dougie Freedman at the moment, the signing of Neil Danns seems like a bit of a desperate measure, but he could provide Bolton with some more creativity in the middle. The pressure is entirely on Bolton for this game because of the squad they have and being bottom of the table, Yeovil aren't expecting to stay up at all. Although the Glovers have only picked up a point since the opening day of the season, I'm not going to write them off entirely, because three of their five defeats this season have come by one goal. They've ran the likes of Reading and QPR very close, they shown they can compete at this level, so I'll say they'll pick up a point. 1-1.

Bournemouth vs Blackburn

Tokelo Rantie set for Bournemouth debut

If you'd told me three years ago that Bournemouth would be above Blackburn in the Championship, I would have struggled to believe you. Due to such contrasting histories, the last time these clubs met in the league, Nelson Mandela had just been released from prison. Bournemouth are continuing to impress this season, particularly at Dean Court, having won three of their first four home games. Blackburn though, have failed to win thirteen of their last fourteen away games. Such a contrast in home and away form makes me think that Bournemouth's excellent start to the season will continue, big money signing Tokelo Rantie is set to make his home debut, who should further boost the Cherries' goal tally provided he picks up no more serious injuries. 2-1.

Burnley vs Charlton Athletic

Yann Kermorgant is back to full fitness

In pre-season, I thought these teams would finish in a similar sort of position - lower mid-table. But they've got off to very contrasting starts. Burnley have started very well under Sean Dyche, despite a small squad, but I worry that their run in the cup might hinder their performances in the league. Only four changes were made for the cup game against Nottingham Forest in midweek, whereas Charlton have had a whole week to prepare for this game. The Addicks will want to bounce back from the defeat against Millwall, Yann Kermorgant will be fully fit which is a plus. I think they'll put in a strong performance, and come away with a point. 1-1.

Ipswich vs. Brighton

Ipswich look solid under Mick McCarthy

A difficult one to call. Brighton have conceded just two goals in their last six games, and their ability to defend deep and hit teams on the counter attack has played a big part in that. The absence of top forward Leonardo Ulloa isn't ideal, but last week they scored three goals without him, coming from midfield, defence, and a set piece. If Brighton can win this, I would fancy them to make a push for the play-offs, because Ipswich have been reliable at home so far, winning three out of their four games at Portman Road. Brighton seem to be playing the better football, but they will do well in games against teams who are desperate for a win, and disorganized at the back. Under McCarthy, I think Ipswich will remain defensively solid, and won't give Brighton enough of a chance to break, thus making this game a 0-0 stalemate.

Leicester vs. Barnsley

How will Butland do on loan at Barnsley?

Barnsley have already conceded twenty two goals this season, and at this rate they'll be lucky to end it with their 'goals against' tally in double figures! They've brought in goalkeeper Jack Butland on a short-term loan as a measure to try and stop it, that might help them in the next few games, but when he goes back to Stoke I'm not sure how Barnsley will cope then. Their regular goalkeeper, Luke Steele, will be out of match practice and have his morale damaged knowing he's not their first choice. Thanks to an excellent start Leicester are now joint-second, and in terms of the other teams on the same points, I would fancy them over Burnley and Blackpool to maintain their form. Over October, Leicester have a very favourable run of fixtures, so they have a realistic chance of nailing down onto that 2nd spot. 3-0.

Millwall vs Leeds United

Will Scott McDonald score his second Millwall goal?

The best away fans in the country meet arguably the worst home ones. When Leeds came to St Andrews last season, they sold out their allocation and were in full voice for the whole game. On the other hand, Millwall fans are still against the management of Steve Lomas and the ex-West Ham player's position looked untenable less than a fortnight ago, but back-to-back victories have taken Millwall well out of the drop zone, and it'll be interesting to see what response he gets if the Lions pick up a third successive win. Leeds just aren't scoring enough goals at the moment, having drawn a blank in three of their last five games in all competitions. I can't see there being many goals in this one, Millwall to scrape it 1-0.

QPR vs Middlesbrough

Another solid defensive display from QPR?

Charlotte Green is taking over from James Alexander Gordon announcing the final scores on BBC Radio 5 Live, and if the first few weeks are anything to go by, the most common score she'll be announcing is: "Queens Park Rangers 1 (Opposition) 0". It seems remarkable to think that although QPR are top of the table, they've also scored the lowest number of goals in the top half, which is testament to their defence. Middlesbrough are starting to score goals, having bagged five in their last two games, although they're yet to win since the second match of the season, and I can't see that changing. QPR are always winning 1-0 at the moment, so it's the wise prediction to go with that again.

Reading vs. Birmingham

Sharp rejoins Nigel Adkins at Reading

Bringing in Billy Sharp in on loan is a very good move for Nigel Adkins, who will be re-united with the man he worked closely with at Scunthorpe and Southampton. Sharp is a natural goalscorer. He had an incredible record in League One, scoring fifty-three goals in eighty-two games at Scunthorpe, before having an excellent 2011-12 season in the Championship gaining promotion with Southampton, in spite of deep personal issues. He's a forward I've always admired, and I think he'll give Reading a much needed goal boost, they've kept three clean sheets in their last four games which suggests that a reliable striker is the missing ingredient in their play-off push. Sharp could be that man. Birmingham come into the game off the back of two excellent results against Wednesday and Swansea, Jesse Lingard will pose a big threat to Reading's chances of keeping a clean sheet, whilst Nikola Zigic returning to the squad should give the players a lift. But Reading might want the win a little bit more to try and put pressure on the teams at the top, whereas the Birmingham players might be slightly tired from giving their all against Swansea on Wednesday. The Royals to edge this 2-1.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Doncaster Rovers

Things looking ominous for Dave Jones' side

Wednesday got a terrible result at Birmingham last week. It's strange to think that although them and Bolton are the only teams yet to win a game, the Owls have actually scored in every one of their matches. Federico Macheda got off to the perfect start to his time at Doncaster, netting a brace, in what must be accepted as a good result for Paul Dickov's side, despite Nottingham Forest's late equalizer. Wednesday's defence hasn't done too well recently, conceding four goals at Birmingham was a disaster, but they also gave away two at home to Millwall who hadn't scored at that point, and surrendered a lead against 10-man Yeovil. Macheda will inject some confidence into Doncaster's attacks, so I'll go with my instinct and say they can kick Wednesday when they're down, and win 1-2.

Watford vs Wigan

Watford can't stop scoring

Grant Holt will miss out on this match which is a big loss for Wigan. His height would have caused problems, and the Latics only have Marc Antoine-Fortune as backup - and he's yet to score this season. Not only that, but their top scorer Shaun Maloney is a doubt for this game, so it's difficult to see Wigan scoring. That's never the case for Watford, who are scoring goals like there's no tomorrow. They've bagged nineteen already this season, by far the most in the league, and almost two and a half times the number league leaders QPR have scored. The impressive thing for them is that goals are coming from all over the pitch, with McGugan and Farouani chipping in with four from midfield, and Angella contributing from the back. Every time Wigan have won a game in the league, they've lost the following match, they beat Ipswich last week, so on that logic this has to be a comfortable win for the Hornets. 2-0.