The Championship: What We Learnt In Midweek

On Tuesday and Wednesday night, the sides fighting down the bottom picked up a setback. Millwall, Yeovil and Barnsley, all of whom won on Saturday, lost in midweek. But here, the main focus will be higher up the league. We will look at whether a new role for Robson-Kanu could benefit Reading, how Cairney’s absence has hindered Blackburn, and Jamie Vardy’s chances of thriving in the top flight, as Leicester’s inevitable promotion draws ever-closer. Here is our review of the games.

Can Robson-Kanu’s new role revitalize Reading?

Hal Robson-Kanu

Reading have scored the third-highest number of goals in the league. However, they have only netted more than once in a game five times from a possible nineteen since the start of December. Those two facts tell you what an unpredictable team they can be. In recent weeks, a 7-1 win over Bolton was followed by a 2-0 loss at Ipswich. Similarly, a 3-1 victory at QPR was followed by a 1-0 home defeat to Blackburn. Considering previous disappointments, Royals fans can be forgiven for not getting too excited by the 4-2 win at Leeds on Tuesday.

But manager Nigel Adkins was rewarded for his decision to drop strikers Adam Le Fondre and Pavel Pogrebnyak from the starting eleven. Hal Robson-Kanu, usually used as a substitute winger, excelled in his role as the lone striker, scoring a goal and netting an assist. It was his sheer pace, persistence and strength that created his chance, which he took confidently. Previous criticisms of Robson-Kanu have often been that he lacks guile and key decision making. However, he may be able to offer Reading’s attack something different off the ball, in terms of stamina and harrying defences. A partnership of his tenacity, alongside a natural goalscorer such as Le Fondre or Pogrebnyak, could bode well for Reading.

There is no doubt that much work is still to be done if the Royals, currently sixth, want to hold down a play-off place. Brighton and Wigan are both in good form, and significantly both have games in hand on the Berkshire side. But, if Nigel Adkins can get the best out of Robson-Kanu in a striker role, that is likely to boost Reading’s chances.

Could Vardy surprise us in the Premier League?

Jamie Vardy

Let’s face it… we all know Leicester are going up. Mathematically speaking, they just need seven wins and a draw from their last twelve games to guarantee promotion, and that’s in the extreme scenario that teams below them take maximum points. The Foxes’ fate is already decided.

In Leicester’s 3-0 victory at Barnsley, Jamie Vardy scored a brace, and set up the other one for the impressive Danny Drinkwater. Not for the first time, Vardy’s pace helped Leicester on their way to victory, and he has now scored five goals in his last four games. It raised a few eyebrows when Nigel Pearson signed the striker in summer 2012 from Fleetwood, a Conference club at the time, for over £1 million. That gamble has certainly reaped its rewards.

Arguably, Vardy goes into the Premier League at the perfect time. He is now 27, the peak age for a striker. While he has been one of Leicester’s highlight performers, it is not as if he has scored all of their goals, or that his side have been noticeably reliant on him. Much of the focus could be on the more experienced striker, David Nugent, and Vardy could go into the Premier League somewhat under the microscope.

With his tireless energy and blistering pace, Vardy has potential to surprise a few people in the top flight.

Has Cairney’s absence scuppered Blackburn’s play-off chances?

Tom Cairney

It seems Blackburn can forget about breaking into the top six, for this season at least. When they won 1-0 at play-off rivals Reading a few weeks ago, with a solid defensive performance, they looked capable of dislodging those above. However, any momentum that that result might have generated, was knocked away by a crushing 4-0 loss at Bolton. Defeat in the Lancashire derby, and most recently, at home to Bournemouth, has rubbed salt into the wound. Unless Blackburn string three or four wins together instantly, Gary Bowyer will start planning ahead for this summer, with a Championship budget in mind.

The main reason they have lost games recently, has been the absence of Tom Cairney. He had put in much improved performances since the turn of the year, with four assists, two goals, and two man of the match performances. In the last eight league games Blackburn have played - with Cairney in the side - they took fifteen points. Cairney picked up a slight ankle injury after the win at Reading, and Rovers have now scored just one goal in three games since, losing each of them. This is no coincidence.

Another factor has been Jordan Rhodes’ loss of form. The Scot has only netted once since New Years’ Day, yet remains by some distance Blackburn’s top scorer, which highlights how reliant they have been on his goals. Keeping Cairney and Rhodes this summer, and getting them fit and in-form next season, will be key to future success at Ewood Park.

Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 11th March

We look to be at the stage of the Championship season, where the teams down at the bottom start fighting desperately for points. All four of the bottom teams who played on Saturday won, and will be looking to build on that with another three points this week. Millwall will be hoping to draw out-of-form Blackpool into the relegation scrap with a win at Bloomfield Road, and Barnsley want to build on their win over Forest but have an unenviable game against runaway leaders Leicester. Higher up the league, Brighton are aiming to break into the play-offs, as they host QPR, who are looking unlikely to gain automatic promotion. Here is our preview of all the matches.

Barnsley vs. Leicester

Dale Jennings

Leicester are now thirteen points clear of third place, with a game in hand on Derby, and their promotion is a foregone conclusion. On the other hand, Barnsley are fighting to save their Championship status. Thanks to a winner from Dale Jennings, the Tykes got arguably their most important result of the season, a 1-0 victory over Nottingham Forest. After everything that happened at Huddersfield; a 5-0 defeat, awful defending and players dissenting at angry fans; Barnsley needed that kind of result. Complacency could creep into the Leicester camp. They do not have the best record away to the lower teams, as previous defeats at Charlton, Doncaster and Sheffield Wednesday suggest. Barnsley will battle for a point. 1-1.

Brighton vs. QPR

People say Brighton need to improve their home record, but one defeat in their last ten at the AMEX is reasonable progress, with only five goals conceded. A home draw against Reading on Saturday was, ultimately, not a bad result. They played half of that match with ten men, after centre-back Gordon Greer was sent off, and none of the teams around them won. They have not lost any ground. QPR came out 2-0 winners at Birmingham on Saturday, with Ravel Morrison scoring his first goals for the club and putting in a man of the match performance. The problem with both teams is that they do not score enough, so the game could be decided by the odd goal. 0-1.

Derby vs. Bolton

Andre Moritz

In the space of a week, Derby lost six points on Burnley and now with an eight point gap, their automatic promotion hopes have evaporated. As with QPR, the remainder of their season will be a case of preparing for the play-offs. Bolton are finding some form. The Trotters scored nine goals in their last two games, beating Blackburn and Leeds 4-0 and 5-1 respectively. In both of those games, their goals came from all different goalscorers, as the likes Andre Moritz and Neil Danns are starting to play with confidence from midfield. With neither side having too much to play for, this is likely to be an entertaining, high-scoring affair. 2-2.

Doncaster vs. Watford

Last week, Billy Sharp marked his return from suspension with a goal against Huddersfield. At home, Doncaster have already kept seven clean sheets this season, so a proven goalscorer coming back into the team should give them a boost. Watford are masters of the clean sheets themselves, having kept five out of a possible seven since the start of February. Their only problem is winning games away from home. The Hornets have not won on the road since early October, although eight out of those ten away games ended in draws. Strikers Troy Deeney and Mathias Renegie bagged a brace each in a 4-0 home win over Watford on Saturday, Renegie netting his first goals for the club on just his second start. Doncaster might grind out a win here – the Rovers have a bit more to play for. 1-0.

Leeds vs. Reading

Royston Drenthe

Prospective Leeds owner, Massimo Cellino, launched a scathing attack on the Leeds players, after the 5-1 defeat to Bolton. Those comments will have done little to ingratiate himself with the team, and it seems the wrong thing to say, considering he does not own the club yet. That will unsettle the players, and it is possible that Leeds’ form will fall away towards the end of the season. Reading’s away record is quite good as well. The Royals have taken ten points from their last five on the road, although they failed to take advantage of an extra man at play-off rivals Brighton on Saturday. Royston Drenthe scored his first goal for the club in that match, and keeping him fully fit for the remainder of the season will be important. Reading can get an eighth away win here. 1-2.

Middlesbrough vs. Nottm Forest

Middlesbrough finally ended their seven game goal drought, with a 2-0 win over Ipswich. Aitor Karanka has clearly built a strong defence at the Riverside, with an impressive eleven clean sheets from the nineteen games they’ve played under him. If Danny Graham can build on his brace on Saturday, they should be able to pick up more points towards the end of the season. Nottingham Forest fell to a third consecutive defeat at Barnsley. Their next three home games are against teams down at the bottom, but that is not necessarily going to be an advantage, because a lot of them will be fighting desperately for points. Forest do not have an in-form striker at the moment, and they do not look like they will trouble the Boro back-line. 1-0.

Yeovil vs. Ipswich

Gary Johnson

Ipswich have only scored one goal in their last four games and, although it is still possible, the Tractor Boys are not really threatening to break into the play-off places. Away from home, they have only taken two points from their last five, and have won just three on the road all season. After a five match unbeaten run, Yeovil are starting to believe they can beat the drop. Ishmael Miller grabbed his seventh goal for the Glovers in thirteen games, with a brace against Sheffield Wednesday. In the next two weeks, Yeovil have QPR, Wigan, and Leicester away, so they will need to win this type of game. 1-1.

Blackpool vs. Millwall

The awful run of form Blackpool are on means this match has become crucial. While some people might say this is a ‘must win game’ for the Tangerines, it would be wrong for Barry Ferguson to highlight this match as one they need to win.  Although it would extend the winless run, a few draws for Blackpool at this stage may not be such a bad thing. Ferguson just needs to steady the ship, and the team must rebuild confidence gradually, without falling deeper into the relegation mire. Millwall picked up a priceless win at Derby on Saturday, without which they would have fallen to second bottom. For that, they have Davide Forde to thank, because he pulled off a string off very good saves to preserve the three points. Generally though, Millwall have struggled to win away from home, so this might be a draw.  1-1.

Birmingham vs. Burnley

Jason Shackell

You would get high odds for a home win here. Birmingham have won the fewest number of home games in the Championship, while Burnley have lost the fewest away. Only Barnsley and Millwall have conceded more home goals than the Blues, who have again reshuffled their back-line, as Lee Clark reverted to a three-man defence against QPR. Burnley on the other hand, have maintained a consistent side throughout the season, and Jason Shackell is an ever-present for them. They look likely to go up automatically with Leicester, as Sean Dyche’s men are now eight points clear of third-place. It’s hard to see the Clarets dropping points here, and you can expect Birmingham’s winless home run to be extended, to thirteen games. 0-2.

Blackburn vs. Bournemouth

Blackburn’s home record against the lesser sides is quite impressive. The Rovers have taken twenty-three points from eleven games at Ewood Park, when playing the teams from midtable downwards. The one positive from their defeat to Burnley, was a first goal in eight games for Jordan Rhodes, and they could certainly do with him rediscovering his first half of the season form. Bournemouth are a team performing well at the moment, the Cherries built on their thrashing of Doncaster with a win at Blackpool. The only two matches they have lost since mid-January, have been narrow defeats to promotion chasing Leicester and Derby, and in both games the consensus was they were unfortunate. I’d still back Blackburn to take three points. 3-1.

Charlton vs. Huddersfield

Chris Powell

Chris Powell has been sacked by Charlton. With such a short time span between his sacking and this match, it will be tough for the players to prepare themselves quickly, in these circumstances. Under Powell, scoring goals had been the problem, the Addicks have failed to net in four of their last six league games. Huddersfield will try to take advantage of the uncertainty at the Valley, but they have lost five of their last six away games, and have not kept a clean sheet on the road since Christmas. Then again, the other factor is Huddersfield’s midfield. With Norwood and Clayton performing well at the moment, it looks stronger than what Charlton have got, because they seem to be relying on inexperienced, unproven players. 1-2.

Wigan vs. Sheff Wed

Both sides have benefitted from a change of manager. Under Rosler, Wigan fans could potentially have three trips to Wembley this spring. They are now in the FA Cup semi-finals, after proudly joining Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Chelsea in the club of teams to have beaten Manchester City on their own turf. Sheffield Wednesday are ten points clear of relegation, which represents fantastic work from Stuart Gray, when you consider how much trouble they were in when he took over. The only problem for Wigan is, there might be a slight ‘morning after’ effect, having put all their energies into beating Man City on Saturday. Sheffield Wednesday do not lose many away games, and they might take a point here. 1-1.

The QPR View

Before Birmingham's match against QPR, I interviewed Wayne Sumner, who has been a season ticket holder at Loftus Road for 44 years. You can follow Wayne on Twitter @bexhoops. Here, he discusses the factors behind QPR’s struggles in their promotion bid, the club’s financial situation, and whether or not Birmingham City would have been better off with Gianni Paladinni…

Redknapp

You’ve spent loads of money, you’ve got a squad jam-packed with Premier League quality, and a manager with a wealth of experience in Harry Redknapp. In 4^th place, would you agree that you’re underperforming, and if so what has gone wrong?

At the start of the season with all the comings and goings, we were really in the dark as to how the season would unfold. Harry done his usual wheeling and dealing and brought in some experienced premiership players and after a solid start, we seem to have trailed off. So, in answer to your question, yes we are underperforming but as to what has gone wrong:  the defence that was once so strong at the beginning of the season has been hit by an injury or two and is now leaking goals in costly games. 2 centre backs over the age of 34 is also not helping matters. Lack of goals from midfield also seems to be a problem. 

How big a blow could the injury to Charlie Austin be?

Charlie’s injury was a massive blow as was the injury to Matt Phillips who is also out for the season. When you make two marquee signings in the summer, losing both of them in quick succession is always going to be a blow, especially considering the attacking prowess that both players offered. In January although we were desperate, it seemed that we did not sign any useful forwards, instead taking a punt on players like Kevin Doyle and Will Keane (from Manchester united) ,a gamble which has unfortunately not yet paid off and it remains to be seen if it will do so.

As well as having a big wage bill, you’re building a new 40,000-seater stadium. If you don’t go up this season, would you worry about your club’s finances?

Of course it would be a worry. With the reported debt of £140million it would be hard to see the club continuing in the same manor. That being said, a lot of the high earners brought in during the Mark Hughes/ Neil Warnock era are coming to the end of their costly contracts (Sean Wright- Phillips) and the board are now offering more short term deals, which seems in the short term, to be doing the trick. As for the 40,000 seater stadium, that Is still a long way off and until the club can cement its place in the premiership, remains to be seen whether it will or will not go ahead as planned.

Best moment as a QPR fan.

Gerry Francis

The Entire 75/76 season under Dave Sexton was pure entertainment. Players such as Stan Bowles and Gerry Francis made rangers a joy to watch and a force to be reckoned with. We finished runners up in Division 1, pipped at the final game by Liverpool winning at Wolves. Everybody says that’s the best side never to win the title.  In recent years, it is hard to look past either the title winning game vs leeds (2010/2011) that took us back to the premiership.

The worst?

Easy. The 2002/2003 FA cup replay against Vauxhall Motors. After drawing 0-0 at their ground and thinking that we had got ourselves out of trouble, the replay at loftus road finished 1-1 and they beat us on penalties. Heartbreak. Close second, was the playoff final defeat in the same year Vs Cardiff at the millennium stadium (a long trip back home).

You finished bottom of the Premier League last season, despite heavy spending. Is that a lesson to other chairmen that splashing the cash on big names doesn’t always work?

It is impossible to draw the same conclusions as we have all seen what has happened with the likes of Chelsea and Man City over the years, but it is definitely a lesson that needs to be learnt by the so called ‘smaller clubs.’ Just looking at Cardiff City this season would be testament to this fact. With more and more foreign owners coming into the game demanding instant success, I’m afraid this is a trend that is set to continue.

A lot has been talked about the rising cost of tickets. How decent are the prices at QPR, and what are your thoughts on football ticket pricing in general?

Tickets for away fans at Loftus Road are £25, which are fairly reasonable for London prices. There are also deals for students/ seniors as well as cheap tickets for U16’s and free tickets for under 8’s. Last season in the premier league was an eye opener, with teams like Fulham charging away fans £50, which is excessive considering the quality of both the teams on display and the overall facilities for fans.

Gianni Paladini publicly said he’d made a bid to takeover Birmingham a few months ago, though the deal is off now. He was on the board at QPR not long ago – thoughts on him?

Gianni Paladini

Well it certainly wouldn’t have been dull: a gun in the boardroom, a mysterious man outside walking up and down claiming he was owed money, not to mention the whole Faurlin incident that almost cost us promotion with the threat of point deductions. Despite this, for all his wrong doings, under his stewardship we were promoted as ‘planned,’ so you really have to take the good with the bad. Personally speaking I think you’ve got away lightly.

Your prediction for this game…

St Andrews has never been a good ground for us, with our last win there being in the 80’s (2-0 in 1984). Before that it was the league cup semi-final in 1967, so I’m hoping we can change history and I’m predicting a 1-0 win to the R’s.

The Championship: What We Learnt This Weekend

After this weekend of Championship football, the key topics are: Blackpool’s chances of sinking to relegation, whether Danny Graham will start scoring for Middlesbrough, and can Yeovil beat the drop?

Blackpool - the relegation ‘plummeters’?

Barry Ferguson

After a 1-0 loss at home to Bournemouth, Blackpool’s extraordinary winless run continues. The Tangerines topped the table under Paul Ince back in September, and were one of the early pace-setters in the promotion race. Since then, much has changed at Bloomfield Road. Paul Ince had a stadium ban for violent conduct, they let go of their best player, Ince’s son, for nothing, they changed their manager to Barry Ferguson, who has never coached before, their fans are protesting against the owners, and they’ve not won for eighteen games.  Let’s face it, now is not a good time to be a Blackpool supporter.

And, with all four of the teams below them who played this weekend winning, relegation has become a serious possibility. The Tangerines are still six points above the drop zone, but they have played one game more than Yeovil and Barnsley, four more than Charlton, and momentum is currently in favour of those below.

At the moment, it is difficult to see Blackpool breaking out of their slump. In Barry Ferguson, they have arguably the least favourable manager in the league. Not only has he never managed before, he had never even coached professionally, prior to getting the job. And even in terms of footballing experience, he has not done anything which suggests he could become a great manager. He spent eleven years of his career at Rangers, yes he was captain, but he was captain of a team that was winning easily week in, week out. This has hardly prepared him for getting Blackpool out of this slump.

Otherwise, his career was littered with stories of binge drinking and hotel brawls. Blackpool are already a side having discipline problems – ten red cards already this season – and had previously been managed by Paul Ince, who had abused a match official. The team needed someone who can set an example, and command respect. If Barry Ferguson had discipline problems as a player himself, how will he give himself the authority to keep players in line?

Blackpool are a sinking ship at the moment, and their match at home to Millwall on Tuesday night could be vital. Something tells me that, for now at least, Barry will not continue the tradition of great Scottish managers called Ferguson.

Is Graham the goalscorer Boro need?

Danny Graham

Danny Graham is not commonly thought of as a natural goalscorer. He had one reasonably good season for Swansea in the Premier League, but after that, his career seems to have gone downhill. He has failed to score a single goal for Sunderland after an inflated transfer fee, he only netted once on loan at Hull, and had not scored in his spell back at Middlesbrough until yesterday. Many fans criticize Graham for a lack of goals, while others appreciate his work rate and commitment to the cause.

But it would be unwise to write Danny Graham off as a finisher. This is a player who has Premier League experience, and although the top flight was perhaps a bridge too far for him, he should be a good striker at Championship level. The last time Graham played regularly in the second tier, he scored thirty-eight goals in ninety-one games for Watford, which is not a bad record. He also scored a fair few in League One for Carlisle before that. Twenty-eight now, this should be the peak age for any striker. Graham is still contracted to Sunderland until summer 2016, but he is not particularly liked by the fans there, and as a product of the Middlesbrough youth academy, he may be more at home at the Riverside.

Since January, Middlesbrough’s problem has been scoring goals. This coincided with Lukas Jutkiewicz being bizarrely loaned out to Bolton, a team in the same league. Perhaps the reason Jutkiewicz has never quite succeeded at Middlesbrough was because, as a tall striker, he never had enough players running onto his flick-ons. Under Tony Mowbray, he often played as a loan striker, albeit with Adomah and Kamara cutting in from the wings. At Bolton, his partnership with a faster, more intelligent striker in Joe Mason seems to be working.

Both of Danny Graham’s finishes against Ipswich, although simple, involved clever movement and the pace to get ahead of the defender. The fact that Sunderland boss Gus Poyet has sent him back out on loan, suggests he is now surplus to requirements at Sunderland. If Middlesbrough can sign him on a permanent deal this summer, then next season, the partnership of Graham and Jutkiewicz could prove fruitful on Teesside.

Could Yeovil actually stay up?

Ishmael Miller

After a 2-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday this weekend, it might just happen. Yes, the team with the lowest budget in the Championship, with no experience at this level, and the team that many had written off, can still make the great escape.

A month ago the Glovers were six points off safety, and had lost three on the bounce. Although they had arguably been unfortunate to lose those games, they were in danger of getting cut adrift at the bottom. A five match unbeaten run later, and Yeovil are now just two points from safety, with a game in hand on most of the sides above them.

Ishmael Miller has been one of the Championship’s signings of the season from manager Gary Johnson. Though not the hardest worker, or not the biggest contributor to Yeovil’s build-up play, Miller has been clinical in his time at Huish Park. Otherwise, the Glovers have struggled for players who can score goals, particularly with midfielder Ed Upson leaving for Millwall in January. Miller has scored seven goals in thirteen games for Yeovil, which is a great record, and he has been a real coup for the West Country club, given the budget that Gary Johnson is working to.

All but one of Yeovil’s remaining home games are against midtable sides who will not have too much to play for, while the other is against relegation rivals Barnsley. It will still be a difficult job to stay up, and with the teams around them starting to pick up points, another sequence of defeats could be fatal. But with momentum now swinging in their favour, do not bet against Yeovil surprising everyone, and beating the drop.

Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 8th March

This weekend, the attention is on the race for the play-offs. Eighth-placed Brighton host seventh- placed Reading, as both sides bid to break into the top six. Blackburn are aiming to do the same, but on Sunday they have a Lancashire derby against a Burnley side looking likely to go up. The visitors will be hoping for third-placed Derby to drop points against relegation strugglers Millwall, in a match which sees the highest scoring team in the league, host the side with the worst defensive record. A defeat for Millwall is likely to put them in further trouble, with Yeovil, Barnsley and Doncaster all playing at home this weekend. Here is my preview of the games.

Barnsley vs. Nottm Forest

Stephen Dawson

Barnsley go into this match with something of a cloud hanging over them, having lost 5-0 to Yorkshire rivals Huddersfield last week. League-wise that result was not disastrous, because everyone around them lost, and the Tykes are still just two points off safety. However, midfielders Stephen Dawson and Brek Shea responded unsavourily to angry comments from supporters, which draws unwelcome attention to the club. Anger management seems to be a theme in this fixture. Nottingham Forest boss Billy Davies is facing a five match touchline ban, for his behaviour towards a match official, in the game against Leicester a few weeks ago. Confidence will not be particularly high in either camp at the moment, and this might be a dull game. 0-1.

Birmingham vs. QPR

There’s a hint of irony in the timing of this fixture. Italian businessman Gianni Paladini has re-affirmed his interest in buying Birmingham City, and his last job in football was chairman of their next opponents, QPR. The Rs are now owned by Tony Fernandes, who has been hoping to bankroll a return to the Premier League, yet they are now unlikely to go up automatically. After a late goal against Leeds was ruled out, Harry Redknapp’s side lost another two points on second-place Burnley last week. With now a nine point gap between those two sides, QPR may need to start preparing for a play-off place. Despite a 1-0 loss at Ipswich last time out, Birmingham are looking fairly comfortable in seventeenth, so there will be no great incentive for either side. 1-1.

Blackpool vs. Bournemouth

Yann Kermorgant

When the reverse fixture of this was played back in September, believe it or not, Blackpool were top of the league under Paul Ince. It certainly seems a long time ago now, as the Tangerines have since changed their manager, and are now enduring a 17-game winless streak. On the other hand, Bournemouth’s season has somewhat plateaued. A thumping 5-0 victory over Doncaster ended any murmurs of relegation, following a run of poor form, with January signing Yann Kermorgant scoring his first goals for the club in style, bagging a hat-trick. For Blackpool, talk of the drop has grown a lot louder than murmurs in recent weeks, and some shambolic defending saw them lose 4-0 at Watford last time out. They cannot afford too many more of those kind of performances. 0-2.

Brighton vs. Reading

Two play-off contenders. Reading have recently been nudged out of sixth place by Wigan, while Brighton are just about remaining in the mix themselves, having won three of their last four matches 1-0. Statistics indicate that over Brighton’s last three matches, 47% of their play has gone down the right side, and that is where this match could be won and lost. Brighton have attack-minded right-back Bruno, while Reading have a similar type of player at left-back, in Jordan Obika. It may be a case of both full-backs trying to catch each other out of position, which should create an interesting tactical battle that can swing either way. 2-1.

Derby vs. Millwall

Chris Martin

Derby’s hopes of automatic promotion took a hit when they lost 2-0 at second-place Burnley last week. Chris Martin had a rush of blood to the head, he picked up a red card and one match ban, so it will be interesting to see who Steve McClaren chooses as the main striker. Connor Sammon very rarely starts a game, often preferred as an impact sub, while the likes of Johnny Russell and Patrick Bamford don’t tend to play as a classic number nine. But that should not be too much of a problem, because Derby are the highest-scoring team in the league overall, and Millwall have the worst defensive record. The clocks are ticking for Holloway to fix Millwall, as the Lions are now without a win in seven games, and without an away win since September. That particular win was at Charlton, and came a week after they lost 5-1 at home to Derby in the reverse fixture. They could suffer a similar fate here. 3-1.

Doncaster vs. Huddersfield

Last week, these two teams were on differing ends of a 5-0 scoreline. Huddersfield thrashed Yorkshire rivals Barnsley last time out, as January signing Nahki Wells bagged four assists. Another key factor was the performance of Adam Clayton. The playmaker was at the centre of everything, and all of Huddersfield’s goals seemed to develop from his passes from midfield. By contrast, Doncaster were hit by five against Bournemouth. Left-back James Husband has had some difficult games of late, and he could struggle in this game too. Statistics indicate that during the last five games Huddersfield have won, over 40% of their play has gone down the right flank, through Adam Hammill, who is one of the top assisters in the Championship. Huddersfield might grab a fifth away win of the season here, and plunge Doncaster deeper into trouble. 1-2.

Leeds vs. Bolton

Massimo Cellino

Leeds are now eight points off the play-off places. Contrary to striker Matt Smith’s claims this week, they are unlikely to make the top six, and there is still uncertainty regarding the takeover. Massimo Cellino, an Italian businessman, has been looking to buy the club but is currently on trial for tax evasion, and this could prove an unnecessary distraction for the players. Darren Pratley is out for the rest of the season for Bolton, but he will not be too much of a loss, and the Trotters’ 4-0 victory over Blackburn came without him in the side. Jay Spearing and Medo look much better options in midfield anyway. This will be an even game and a draw is on the cards. 1-1.

Middlesbrough vs. Ipswich

It seems surprising that Craig Hignett has decided to return to Middlesbrough, as assistant manager. He clearly wanted to work with Colin Cooper when he became assistant at Hartlepool, and it is bizarre to leave towards the end of the season, when Hartlepool are not far off the League Two play-offs. You’d have also thought Aitor Karanka would have his own ideas on the coaching staff he wants to bring in, and prefer to explore his Real Madrid contacts than bring in a Boro old boy. On the pitch, Middlesbrough have not scored for seven games now, and their next opponents Ipswich, are having similar problems. They have only scored once in their last three, and although striker Paul Taylor had a good game against Birmingham, he may not sufficiently replace the injured David McGoldrick. 0-0.

Yeovil vs. Sheff Wed

Byron Webster

Sheffield Wednesday have not lost away since Stuart Gray took charge. They allowed the opposition, on average, 3.5 shots on target in those seven games, with a total of three goals conceded. Gray clearly sets his teams up to be difficult to break down. Yeovil are starting to look quite well organized too. They certainly had to do their fair share of defending to take a point at Reading, when they had three men sent off, although the suspension to key centre-back Byron Webster has been rightly withdrawn. The Glovers are now unbeaten in four games, with just two goals conceded in those four. Chances will be at a premium here, but I’ll go with Wednesday, by virtue of having slightly better strikers available. 0-1.

Blackburn vs. Burnley

In some ways, this could be a big weekend for Burnley. The day before, Derby will play at home to Millwall, which is in theory a much easier game. It is important Burnley do not let Derby gain any points on them, because that would perhaps eradicate the morale boost of having beaten them the week before. A big factor in Blackburn’s chances will be the fitness of centre-back Grant Hanley. Rovers missed him dearly in the 4-0 loss at Bolton, because Jason Lowe is naturally a midfielder, and does not look as though he has the discipline to play in central defence. Burnley are now eleven games unbeaten and look likely to further dent Blackburn’s feint hopes of a play-off place. 0-2.

With thanks to Who Scored.

The Championship Play-Off Race

Believe it or not, we are now two-thirds of the way through this Championship season, and the preverbal ‘business end’ starts now. In recent seasons, the run-in has seen Barnsley make the great escape, it has seen Reading storm to the title, and Blackpool get that last play-off spot to ultimately go up under Ian Holloway. Those moments are now in the making, as managers are preparing the players for that final push towards their goals. So far, it is fair to say that the Championship has not quite been at its unpredictable, dramatic best. But with teams now desperate for points, that is sure to change in the following three months. Here’s how I see things going with the race for the play-offs, in part two of three instalments.

On the basis that QPR are more likely to compete for automatic promotion than drop out of the play-offs, there are two spots left. Nottingham Forest and Reading have held them for long periods, yet in-form Wigan have entered the fray since the appointment of Uwe Rosler, and they have climbed in at Reading’s expense. A Spanish-themed Brighton side are another team who have improved since the run-up to Christmas, while Blackburn remain contenders, but need to win more away from home.

Blackburn

Jordan Rhodes

Current situation:

Pos 10^th

Pld 32

GD -1

Pts 46

Estimated Points Required (EPR) 26pts/14 games

Why will they reach the play-offs?

In the first half of the season, they were very reliant on striker Jordan Rhodes, who had scored around half of their goals. Now, that is no longer the case, as recent arrivals Rudy Gestede and Craig Conway have played well since the turn of the year. They have only lost one of their last nine games at Ewood Park, and have the second best home defensive record in the division. The team spirit factor is definitely there, as manager Gary Bowyer worked with a lot of the current players when he was in charge of Blackburn’s Development Squad. A January window without selling Rhodes will have helped their cause.

Why won’t they reach the play-offs?

Or will it? Jordan Rhodes has now not scored since New Year’s Day. You might argue that what caused such a successful first half, was that he was playing for a January move to the Premier League, yet now he seems to have lost that extra motivation. Generally, the team is still very young. Only Scott Dann and David Dunn have significant Premier League experience, and there are not many players in the squad who you would identify as a leader in the dressing room. The fact that they have never won more than two games back-to-back, suggests a lack of focus is a problem.

Verdict

They clearly have a talented squad with much potential, but they have never developed any real momentum this season. They may fall short, for want of a couple more experienced players who can create a consistent, strong mentality within the squad. If they don’t go up, Gary Bowyer’s dealings this summer will be key. Miss out.

Brighton

David Lopez

Current Situation:

Pos 8^th

Pld 32

GD +7

Pts 49

EPR 26 pts/14 games

Why will they reach the play-offs?

They can keep the ball. They have the second best average possession % in the Championship, and the success of Barcelona and Spain over the last few years suggests that possession is the way forward. For Brighton, this has partly contributed to their impressive defensive record, as only QPR and Burnley have conceded less goals. The recent arrival of Jesse Lingard could give them a little bit extra energy going forward, and Leandro Ulloa is also firing at the moment. They got off to a bad start, arguably due to the unsettling nature of Gus Poyet’s sacking, yet morale is no longer a problem. Had the season started in November, Brighton would be 5^th.

Why won’t they reach the play-offs?

Goals. They have only scored six of them in nine games since the turn of the year, and Brighton have not always managed to convert possession into good scoring opportunities. They have perhaps lacked creativity. Attacking midfielder David Lopez has not been as impressive as he was last season, while Will Buckley, Andrea Orlandi, and attacking fullback Inigo Calderon, have all struggled to stay fit. Ashley Barnes, a decent back-up striker, has been sold, meaning Brighton are now particularly reliant on the form and fitness of Leandro Ulloa.

Verdict

They still have a game in hand on a few teams, and are yet to play Reading and Nottingham Forest, the latter on the final day. Those matches could prove decisive. With Leandro Ulloa starting to fire again, I’ve got a feeling they’ll make it. In.

Nottm Forest

Jamie Paterson

Current situation:

Pos 5^th

Pld 33

GD +15

Pts 55

EPR 19 pts/13 games

Why will they make the play-offs?

They are in there at the moment, and have a four point gap between themselves and 7^th. At the beginning of the season, many people tipped them for automatic promotion, given their squad’s strength in depth. In Jamie Paterson, they have a very talented attacking player capable of scoring goals. Between December and mid-February, Forest went on a thirteen game unbeaten run, so they just need to rediscover their form.

Why won’t they reach the play-offs?

Injuries. Many of the players who contributed to that run, most notably Andy Reid, Jack Hobbs and Henri Lansbury, are all sidelined - until the end of the season in some cases. Manager Billy Davies has been given a five game touchline ban, for his behaviour towards match official at half-time in the game against Leicester. This creates unnecessary press attention for the team, and the fact that meanwhile, the club is making sizeable financial losses, will do nothing to ease the pressure.

Verdict

A bit of a surprise this, but I think they’ll hit a bad run of form and slip out of the play-offs. They have lost too many key players through injury, and the quality of their team is not the same proposition it was in January. Off the field issues will be a hindrance as well, and Forest could get into a dangerous cycle of downward momentum. Miss out.

Reading

Alex McCarthy

Current Situation:

Pos 7^th

Pld 33

GD +13

Pts 51

EPR 23 pts/15 games

Why will they make the play-offs?

On their day, Reading have the ability to obliterate teams at the Madejski, as Doncaster, Bolton and Blackpool have found to their cost. A front pairing of Pavel Pogrebnyak and Adam Le Fondre can be clinical at times in front of goal, and goalkeeper Alex McCarthy has been talked about as a future England no.1. Reading have one of the Championship’s most creative players in Gareth McCleary on the right wing, while Royston Drenthe is still yet to show the talent that saw him play almost fifty games for Real Madrid. The potential in the team is there.

Why won’t they make the play-offs?

Nigel Adkins is working with of the Championship’s younger squads, and perhaps the team is lacking in experience. Similarly to Blackburn, the side lacks leadership, and captain Sean Morrison has been injured for long periods of the season. The results they have picked up have been surprisingly inconsistent, and the side has struggled to gain any momentum. One or two older heads are needed.

Verdict

A hard one to call, given that the side is so unpredictable. It’s on a knife edge, but they might just suffer from a lack of experience in the crunch games, towards the end of the season. Miss out.

Wigan

Uwe Rosler

Current Situation:

Pos 6^th

Pld 32

GD +11

Pts 52

EPR 23 pts/16 games

Why will they make the play-offs?

Momentum. Results have been transformed since the appointment of Uwe Rosler back in December. Under Owen Coyle, the Latics averaged below 1.4 points per game, under Rosler, the average is over 2.1. Statistics indicate that if Uwe Rosler had been in charge since August, they would be second. He has undoubtedly got the best out of the midfield, with the likes of Jordi Gomez and James McArthur starting to chip in, while three goals from six starts suggests Nicky Maynard could be the goalscorer they need.

Why won’t they make the play-offs?

Could the new manager effect wear off? When a new boss is appointed, it is relatively common for there to be a ‘honeymoon period’, which sees the team improve results. Having already changed their manager, Wigan no longer have that advantage. An injury to first team regular Ben Watson is far from ideal.

Verdict

They will get in. The squad has a few midfielders who are capable of replacing Watson, and the form they are in, it is difficult to see anyone stopping them. In.

The Championship: What We Learnt This Weekend

We’ve had an eye-catching weekend of Championship football, with six thrashings handed out. Here, we will look at the possibility of Nottingham Forest dropping out of the play-off places, Doncaster’s survival prospects, and the factors behind Burnley’s increasingly strong position in the promotion race.

Forest could fall out of the play-off places

Jack Hobbs

Nottingham Forest have a squad filled with quality, they are still a few points clear of seventh, so surely losing 4-1 to Wigan was just a one-off, right? Wrong. In the last week, Forest’s injury-stricken season has continued with injuries to two more key players - centre-back Jack Hobbs and influential playmaker Andy Reid. Without these players, they will struggle to rebuild any momentum.

Due to long-term injuries to defenders Kelvin Wilson and Danny Collins this season, the highly-rated Hobbs has formed a good defensive partnership with Jamaal Lascalles. However, the former will now be out for the remainder of the season. Right-back Greg Halford could move to his less natural position in central defence, or Danny Collins could come in, yet he has struggled since returning from injury. This may create problems in defence, and twelve goals conceded in Forest’s last five, suggests this is the last thing they need.

Andy Reid has contributed to 37% of Forest’s overall goal tally (54), with his goals (9) and assists (11). He is ruled out for six weeks, and fellow midfielders Henri Lansbury and David Vaughan remain sidelined. Billy Davies has been forced to play 35-year-old Jonathan Greening, a coach of the reserve team who has only featured twice this season. At the start of the season, the quality of Forest’s midfield was the one thing you could highlight about their squad, yet now a series of injuries has seen their central options decimated. Not long ago it looked like Forest could push for the top two, yet now they will struggle to maintain a play-off spot.

Donny are in trouble

James Husband

Doncaster might have pipped Bournemouth to the League One title on the final day of last season, but the Cherries have certainly got their revenge. They completed a sweet double over the boys from South Yorkshire with a 5-0 victory on Saturday. Bournemouth look set for a midtable finish in their first season back in the second tier, but the same cannot be said for Doncaster, who are undoubtedly in relegation trouble.

Only Charlton have scored fewer goals (24) than Rovers (28), who failed to score four times in their last five games. Even top scorer Chris Brown has only scored six goals, and their second top scorer, Theo Robinson, has a knee injury. Since joining on loan from Aston Villa, forward Jordan Bowery has far from hit the ground running, having failed to score so far. Where are the goals going to come from?

It looks as though conceding goals could be a problem too. Left-back James Husband has looked particularly vulnerable defensively in recent weeks, and most of Bournemouth’s goals came down their right side. Paul Dickov extended the loan of Enda Stevens in January, to provide cover, and Doncaster may benefit from him filling in at left-back. Doncaster have been very reliant on their home form this season, and their next two games are at the Keepmoat against midtable sides, Huddersfield and Watford. Doncaster need to bounce back, and quickly.

Promotion is Burnley’s to lose

‘Six-pointer’ is an overused word, yet the recent plight of QPR and Nottingham Forest meant the match between Burnley and Derby would be just that, and arguably, the biggest game of the season so far. A Derby win, and they would leapfrog Burnley to go second. A win for the Clarets, and they would go five points clear in the promotion race. The latter happened.

Many pundits have made the mistake of underestimating Burnley. The common perception was that they would fall away towards the end of the season, perhaps due to a lack of squad depth, and top level experience. But their impressive 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest, the previous week, fired warning signs that this was a team to be taken very seriously. All of a sudden, they now have a five-point cushion over Derby, to whom they have just dealt a psychological blow, putting themselves in a most commanding position.

It is difficult to see Sean Dyche, dubbed the “ginger Mourinho”, letting his side get carried away. Many have criticized Burnley for an over-reliance on Sam Vokes and Danny Ings, but attacking right-back Kieran Trippier has been fantastic this season, and he tops the Championship assists table (13). Apart from those key players, it is arguable that their squad lacks intrinsic quality, yet this Burnley team is naturally hardworking throughout.

David Jones and Dean Marney protect the defence very well. If you want a demonstration of this, look no further than the fact that Burnley’s opponents this season have only had an average of four shots on target per game. The whole team continues to graft, when they don’t have the ball, to deny teams space going forward.  You cannot go a year unbeaten at home and not be a very well-organised side, capable of scoring goals at any moment. Premier League football beckons at Turf Moor.