Blue moon dwindling- what's gone wrong at Man City?

What's happened to Manchester City this season? I'm sure most of you would agree with me when I say it's been a poor start to the season for them. I am open to arguements from people who say they are only 2 points off top spot - it's not like they're out of the title race - but 22 points from 10 games so far is generally a poor start compared with the standards they will have set themselves in my opinion, and you've got to factor in that they are still yet to play Chelsea, Man United, Tottenham and Everton. They are already out of the Carling Cup and it's been an even worse start for them in the Champions League, there's no disputing that, collecting just the 1 point from two matches against Ajax where only maximum points will have really sufficed, they are now bottom of their group. It's been a bad allround start for them, and here are my thoughts on what might have caused it:

 

 1. Complacency from last season

 

 

 

There appears to be a general mood of complacency in the Man City camp. Sluggish Premier League performances against teams like Stoke, West Brom, Swansea and West Ham so far this season, and the fact that they've drawn more away games than they've won, suggest they thought this season would be a breeze which they couldn't afford to do: Chelsea have been spending like there's no tommorrow this summer and apart from a brief period in the middle of the first decade of the new millenia when Arsenal went a season unbeaten, and Mourinho won the league twice with Chelsea, Manchester United under Ferguson have never lost a Premiership title and then failed to win it the following season. You've also got to take into account the ludicrous sums of money these players are being paid, at least five Manchester City players are on contracts of £200K-a-week, it's bound to turn those players into self-orientated egos, and Mancini should have done a better job at keeping thse players grounded.

 

2. The Balotelli factor

 

 

 

I think Mario Balotelli is a liability for City. He might say: "you don't know me. People think they know me, but you don't know the real Balotelli." but, in a similar respect to someone like Joey Barton, he's done so many stupid things it's impossible to not judge him. In the past three years, he's fired air pistols in the open in Milan's Piazza della Republica, he's allegedly been photographed with members of the Mafia, he's crashed his car with £5,000 in his back pocket, stopped in an Italian women's prison to 'have a look around', thrown darts at a youth team player for a prank, stopped at a college in Manchester because he 'needed the toilet' and set his house on fire... he's done so many stupid things, and they can't be all made up by the papers, in fact some of these things have been confirmed to have been true. The point I'm making is, with this drama he inevitably creates, Balotelli takes up an awful lot of Mancini's time and attention, when there are 24 other players in the squad. Considering he's a rotation player, and I don't think as good as Tevez and Aguero, or arguably even Dzeko, is he worth the hassle? I don't think so, because there are better players out there in the world, that would love to play for Man City, that they can also afford. It's not like they're cash-striken and have had to resort to using Balotelli- the cheap option. If anything, in games Balotelli sometimes tries things that are too complex when he should just play the simple pass. Alex Ferguson would sell Balotelli in a heartbeat if he noticed his overego, but there again, Ferguson would have had the sense to not buy the Italian in the first place. In short, I don't think his undoubted skill makes up for the pressure he puts his team under.

 

3. Poor transfer signings.

 

 

 

There can't be much debate that Manchester City's quality of squad has, surprisingly, gone backwards since last season. Let's be honest... Scott Sinclair will never be anything more than a decent squad player for City, unlike Balotelli, I don't think he's talented enough in the first place and is a bit of a waste of time and £15 million as far as I'm concerned, and he's blatantly gone to the club for the money. I'll admit Javi Garcia is a decent buy, he might give Yaya Toure the licence to get forward and express himself in the last 20 minutes of matches, like he did so crucially in the penultimate game of last season to score two goals at Newcastle, they needed a replacement for De Jong because Gareth Barry simply doesn't cut the mustard. Can't argue with that. But they've also signed Maicon at right-back, who is very injury prone and is 30 now, I could see him being another Owen Hargreaves. Jack Rodwell was another signing, who wasn't even getting a first team game at Everton! To call him an average Premiership player would being just a little harsh on him given his young age of 21, especially for a defensive midfielder, but in my opinion, he was an unnecessary buy. I'm not sure what he adds to the team, and then, the most bizarre transfer of the all... Richard Wright. Yes. The guy who played in goal for Ipswich and I think, Everton over 10 years ago, who was out of contract because Preston North End released him due to homesickness. I don't think I've ever seen a more pointless signing- he'll never play for City! A very poor piece of planning from Roberto Mancini it has to be said, I know his contract won't consist of anything substancial, but it's simply a waste of time.

 

4. Poor tactical nous from Mancini.

 

 

 

Over this season so far, the Italian has shown negligible evidence of tactical understanding. It was quite clear from last season that four at the back, with Kompany and Lescott, was the way forward. It gave them the best defensive record in the league, and made them very difficult to break down, but all of a sudden he decided to change that to 3 at the back, possibly provoked by a Barca ideology, but the change was impractical. It left them very vulnerable on the flanks and it took the players too long to get used to. In fact, it meant the Citizens had to wait until October to get their first clean sheet of the season, which came against Sunderland, the Premiership's lowest scorers. Although it would be a little unfair of me not to mention that he has, in fact, changed this system in recent matches, and that they have kept two clean sheets from their last two Premiership games, although they conceded a couple of sloppy goals against Ajax in the Champions League. But the other thing I don't quite understand Mancini's logic on, is the reinvention of Kolarov as a right winger. I would agree that his quality of delivery is up there with the best in the Premier League, and his attacking skills do probably outweigh his ability as a defender, but with the forward talent of players like Silva, Aguero, Tevez, Nasri, maybe Milner and Balotelli, I'm a little sceptical of how Mancini can make space for him. Also, Kolarov has only ever been a left-back, why convert him to a right-winger? So not only is he playing in the wrong position, he is playing on the wrong side!

 

All of these factors, to some degree, point to Roberto Mancini: it was his job to keep a healthy motivation within the players and make sure they don't let their egos outgrow them,  it was a poor decision from him to remain loyal to Balotelli given all of the stupidly social-work-esc management difficulties he brings with him, he's not signed good enough players, Garcia aside, who will enhance the quality of the squad- they stayed at the same level when the likes of Chelsea and United have bettered themselves signigicantly in the transfer market, and he's shown no sense of common logic in changing to a formation that incorporates three defenders when 4-4-2 was clearly working so well.

Due to the competition's nature of having matches in midweek that means some players struggle with fatigue amongst other things, having a manager who is tactically astute is absolutely vital to a team achieving success in the Champions League, and I don't think Mancini is that man.

Mainly because of these reasons, I'm of the opinion that Manchester City can't win the Champions League, or possibly even the Premier League again in the next two or three years for that matter, until Roberto Mancini leaves.

5 reasons why Manchester United are in long-term decline

In my opinion, in 20 years time, Manchester United will be in a similar position to where Liverpool are now- i.e. upper midtable, with a reliance on their history for pride. Before I begin, I want to make clear I don't say this with any bias of dislike for Manchester United at all, because if anything I admire how good they are at developing young talent, they're always exciting to watch and their successes are built fundamentally on team spirit, hardworking people and a winning mentality. They'll certainly be competing at the top of the table for at least the next 5 years, I'm sure of that, but I think in 15 or 20 years, they'll be taken over by the billionnaires of Chelsea and Man City. It's not something that I'd necessarily like to see, but I think it's what's going to happen. And here's 5 reasons why...

 

1. Their academy.

 

 

 

It might seem like a strange one to start off with, but I think the quality of Manchester United's academy is potentially to their detriment. The reality is, the best football teams in England will be able to poach the best youngsters from other clubs, rather than develop their own, and I think it would be a more of an ethical than logical move for United to put too much emphasis on developing their own young players because the chances are, they just won't be good enough. Since the likes of Scholes, Giggs, Beckham, the Neville brothers and Nicky Butt, the Red Devils haven't been able to produce as good quality local lads. Let's have a look at who they've brought through the academy of late: Michael Keane, Vermijl, Wootton, and before that players like Ravel Morrison, Ben Amos.  These amongst the best players they've produced, and what have they done when they've played? I would argue that United haven't produced any players from their academy that are capable of actually enhancing the first team squad since the golden generation in the 90s. The occassional academy starlet with a bit of pace can sometimes have the advantage of getting the fans on their feet which will motivate the team and lift the atmosphere a little bit, but ultimately attempts to build a team that can compete with City and Chelsea's spending power, to any significant degree through their academy will be futile.

 

2. Reliance on experienced players

 

 

I think the callback of Paul Scholes from retirement nearly saved Manchester United's title last season. In the first half of last year, Ferguson went for a long-term gamble by pairing Cleverley and Anderson, which injected the team with a lot of energy and oomph in link-up play going forward, but it lacked that composed head who was able to hold position and keep the shape of the team, whilst never give the ball away and keep things ticking. Paul Scholes was definately that man, and I think he is the best passer of a ball in the Premiership, still. United definately needed him, but in some ways I think that's more of a reflection on Manchester United than Paul Scholes. He's 37 now, and surely won't be playing for much more than two years, it's a similar story for the likes of the following players:

 

-Michael Carrick, is 31, has a great positional sense and good passer but lacks the stamina of someone like Vieira/Yaya Toure and can be outrun in midfield at times. Long-term replacement- Nick Powell? Anderson/Cleverley playing deeper wouldn't suit them- they're more attacking.

-Rio Ferdinand, 33, provides good experience but he lacks pace. LT replacement- Jonny Evans?

-Evra, 30, I've seen him be outrun a number of times on the right flank, it's been too easy for a winger to get a cross in. LT Replacement- Buttner? He's got some talent going forward but is liable to conceding set pieces in defence.

-Vidic, 31, has had several long-term injuries but he's considered a key player. LT replacement- Phil Jones/Smalling?

-Giggs, admittedly is more of a squad player.

-Controversially I'd say van Persie, although he's just signed and been successful, he's 30 now and will only have one or two seasons at his best left in him.

-I'd also argue Valencia, he was a great player last season but I think he's slightly past his peak for a winger that relies on his ability to beat a man.

 

It might just be my opinion, but it would worry me the lack of long-term planning Ferguson is showing in continuing to play experienced players and not looking to replace them with the same quality. Nick Powell will take about 5 years to come good if he is the real deal, I don't think Jonny Evans is anything more than a good squad player for the club, Buttner has looked poor at times defensively, I would see Phil Jones or Smalling as more utility players than in the same bracket as Vidic, although to be fair United have got some promising options going forward.

 

I just think if the long-term replacements don't turn out well, Manchester United don't have the ability like City and Chelsea to go out and buy the best players quite as easily.

 

3. Ownership problems.

 

 

I will admit, I don't know every single minute detail about the situation with the Glaziers, but the impression I get is that their reasons for having control of Manchester United are entirely profit related. Which, in a way makes sense: why would a group of people from the other side of the world want to takeover a club to make them a little bit better than they were before? I'm sure annually, the club profits from the amount of TV money, ticket sales and merchandising revenue it gets, especially playing in the champions league. Eventually, if the Glaziers sell the club, it will simply be to the highest bidder, and not necessarily someone who cares about the club, but someone who will put fragmented bits of money into the club, like the Glaziers did for van Persie, as window-dressing, but ultimately all most chairman are ever likely to think about, unless they are an Abramovich or a Mansour, is what money they can make out of the club. Essentially, unless United get a multi-billionnaire, oil-rich chairman, they won't be able to compete with the likes of Man City and Chelsea.

 

4. Spending compared to Manchester City and Chelsea.

 

 

 

Whenever I make this point, some people say: 'You can't say they don't splash the cash occassionally.' or 'actually, they spent £30 million on Berbatov', so I'd like to compare Manchester United's net spending with Manchester City's and Chelsea's over the last 5 years since Sheikh Mansour took over at the Citizens.

 

Manchester City transfer activity, 2008-2012:

 

Total money spent- £538 mil

Most expensive signing- Sergio Aguero, £38 mil

Total money received- £131 mil

Most expensive sale- Robinho, £22 mil

Net spending- £407 mil

 

Chelsea transfer activity, 2008-2012:

 

Total money spent- £310 mil

Most expensive signing- Fernando Torres, £50 mil

Total money received- £78 mil

Most expensive sale- Yuri Yhirkov, £13 mil

Net spending- £232 mil

 

Manchester United transfer activity, 2008-2012:

 

Total money spent- £187 mil

Most expensive signing- Dimitar Berbatov, £31 mil

Total money received- £126 mil

Most expensive sale- Cristiano Ronaldo, £80 mil

Net spending- £61 mil

 

As you can see, over the past 5 years, Manchester United have spent a net total of £61 million, compared to Manchester City and Chelsea spending £407 mil and £232 mil respectively. I think Abramovich and Mansour will ultimately find a way around the FIFA financial fair play rule, and if so, both of those clubs will be able to attract the best players with the lure of Champions League football, and also a ridiculously high wage packet, which Man United won't be prepared to pay. If the current levels of spending from Manchester City and Chelsea, in comparison with United's continue, I think the richest clubs will dominate in the end, leaving the Red Devils manager to feed off comparitively sparing investments from the chairman, which will be done occassionally to appease the fans, but all any chairman of Manchester United will care about will be the money they can make from the club. And if the club is going to be run that way, I don't think they can continue to compete for the title for longer than 10 years maximum.

 

5. Ferguson will retire.

 

 

 

This leads me rather tidily onto my final, and possibly most important point. Sir Alex Ferguson. Not everyone likes him, but he is undoubtedly the most successful manager in the world, and I think the best. The crucial thing about Ferguson, is that he is the craftsman of all Manchester United's great teams. From the one in the mid-90s with Bruce, Pallister and Cantona, the treble-winning team when the likes of Beckham, Scholes, Giggs and the Neville brothers came through the youth system and took the world by storm, not to mention Schmeichel and the Cole/Yorke partnership, moving midway through the first decade of the new millenia most of us thought Chelsea were going to rule under Mourinho's guidance for the next 10 years or so, but Ferguson built a breathtaking attacking combination of Rooney-Tevez-Ronaldo which won the league three years in a row. There were so many incredible players and memories that were almost solely down to Ferguson's genius. Over the course of his 25 years, they've had to see off Liverpool's tradition, Arsenal's football and Chelsea's money, but United under Ferguson seem to just keep going whenever you write them off.

 

This is what worries me; I think only a manager of Ferguson's quality can continue to win trophies for United in the long-term, with the limited financial resources they have (in comparison with City and Chelsea). I've no idea where Manchester United will go when Ferguson retires, it will be alien circumstances and unless they can get Pep Guardiola, I think it could be a downward spiral for them for them once Sir Alex decides enough's enough.

Weekend review- 04/11/12

Hi scorers,

Let's have a look at the results of this weekend's prediction game- I wouldn't be surprised if the number of points everyone gets is slightly lower this weekend; apart from Man United, none of the teams in the top half of the table won, so we could see a reduction in points. Let's have a look at the games...

Man United 2-1 Arsenal

It's been a weekend that has seen the title race swing in Manchester United's favour for the first time. Neither Chelsea nor Man City could find a way past Swansea or West Ham respectively, and United had the hardest game. As Rio Ferdinand said afterwards, they had plenty of chances to kill that game off, and on another day the clinical van Persie could have had one or two more, I was pleased to see his celebration was kept to a minimum for his solitary goal. I was just a little annoyed because at the time I left the pub to go to watch the Blues game (don't. just don't.) the score was 2-0, which was what I predicted but Cazorla scored a late goal for Arsenal that meant the points went to Rami on this one.

I said: 2-0, +1pt
Del said: 2-3, +0pts
Rami said: 2-1, +3pts

Fulham 2-2 Everton

Everton, and Fellaini in particular, were very unlucky not to come away with all 3 points. A couple of sharp finishes from the masterful Belgian looked to have given the Toffees just that, before an injury-time intervention from Steve Sidwell meant they had to settle for the one. It's not just his goals though, some of the ways in which Fellaini controls the ball, and puts his stamp on every single game is exceptional, he would have no difficulties getting into the Manchester United or Chelsea team. What's so impressive is that he always wins the ball in the air with his shoulder, and it's almost like no-one closes him down because they just can't get near him. I think he's a world class player, but it's these matches Everton need to be seeing out if Moyes's top four ambitions are genuine. Nice one to Rami for calling this spot on.

I said: 1-1, +1pt
Del said: 1-3, +0pts
Rami said: 2-2, +3pts

Norwich 1-0 Stoke

Well, my first three points of the week are in the bank and the Canaries will be playing with a lot of oomph now, going into several matches where the pressure will be completely on their opposition, and I think that might actually suit them. As well as playing Man U and Everton in November, they're also playing Reading and Southampton who're down the bottom, away from home. With a 5pt gap between themselves and the relegation zone, they don't have to win those games, which will take the pressure off significantly. For Stoke,  relegation-wise they might want to watch themselves a bit. I do sometimes worry where their goals are going to come from; in 5 of their 10 Premiership games they've failed to get on the scoresheet which would be relegation form if their defence wasn't as tight as it is. They're certainly not out of trouble.

I said: 1-0, +3pts
Del said: 0-1, +0pts
Rami said: 2-1, +1pt

Sunderland 0-1 Aston Villa

With some really tough games coming up, that was an important win for Villa. I can't see them getting anything out of the Manchester clubs or Arsenal, so they took their opportunity to pick up a win, Christian Benteke impressing again to get the flick-on for Agbonlahor, who ironically finished with a Darren Bent-esc poacher's goal. Sunderland's situation is similar to Stoke's in many ways; they have got a strong enough defence to keep clean sheets in matches, but getting Steven Fletcher to fire will be key to turning those goalless draws into narrow wins, otherwise they'll start to become 1-0 defeats as the call of a relegation battle begins to beckon them.

I said: 0-0, +0pts
Del said: 1-0, +0pts
Rami saId: 1-0, +0pts

Swansea 1-1 Chelsea

With everyone saying 3-1 to Chelsea you'd have thought there could only be one result, how wrong we all were as Pablo Hernandez's late equaliser nullified Victor Moses's deft header earlier on in the second half. A draw probably reflected the balance of play but Swansea fans may feel strangely aggrevied that they didn't finish the match with all three points, as Gary Cahill cleared Danny Graham's late effort off the line to preserve a point for Chelsea if nothing else. It's probably more a case of two points dropped for the Blues though, as the draw sees Manchester United leapfrog them to pole position in the title race, after their win against Arsenal.

 

I said: 1-3, 0pts
Del said: 1-3, 0pts
Rami said: 1-3, 0pts

Tottenham 0-1 Wigan

Contrary to my prediction, it actually turned out to be a day to forget for Defoe, as he was strangely substituted by Andre-Villas Boas, who brought on Adebayor in his stead with 25 minutes to go. That change made no sense to me- if you're losing at home in the second half to a team like Wigan, no disrespect to them given the way they played, but surely you've got to put two striker's up front?! If anything, they should have both started because I think Defoe craves someone like Adebayor alongside him to pressure the defence and get all the little knock-downs for Defoe to pounce, I'm not sure he's got the legs to play up front on his own. It'd be wrong of me to only criticise Tottenham though, because Wigan could have been a couple of goals up at half time before they got their goal, they created several chances and were actually pretty good value for their win. Another surprise result sees all three of us point-less from a third game in a row.

I said: 2-1, +0pts
Del said: 3-0, +0pts
Rami said: 2-0, +0pts

West Ham 0-0 Man City

 

I'm glad I went with my gut instinct on this one, I just had an incling Allardyce would get his team fired up to play Man City, who have looked lethargical in performances of late. It seems strange to think that Mancini's men are the only team unbeaten this season but the fact that they've drawn almost half their matches this season, and over half when playing away from home, gives you the answer. It might just be my opinion, but I feel like Manchester City would be able to nip this sort of match in the bud, if they were going to win the league. I think the mark of champions is to be able to win when you're not playing well, and I just feel like a team like Manchester United would have kept the tempo up throughout the whole match and eventually found a way through. Man City don't seem to have that kind of guile, tenacity and will to win that sets Champions apart. That's my feeling at the moment.

I said: 1-1, +1pt
Del said: 1-2, +0pts
Rami said: 0-1, +0pts

QPR 1-1 Reading

With the likes of Aston Villa, Norwich and Wigan all winning, I'd be inclined to say this was a bad point for both teams in the context of Premier League survival. The clubs are now 5 and 4pts away from safety respectively; of course I'm not saying both teams are out of it by any means at all- there's a long, long way to go and the whole scenario at the bottom of the table could change inside two weeks, but ultimately both teams will have inevitably had ambitions to win this game. Reading held a lead for just about the majority of the match thanks to Kaspers Gorkss's acrobatic volley, but Djibril Cisse's close-range finish levelled it up and saw the momentum swing in the home side's favour. The Rs were unable to find a winner though, and finished the match level-pegging, with both sides still awaiting their first victory.

 

I said: 3-1, +0pts
Del said: 1-1, +3pts
Rami said: 2-0, +0pts

Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle

To be honest, I'm a bit surprised so many people thought Liverpool would win this game. They seem to be struggling to get any kind of consistency at home, having only won one game at Anfield all season which is a recurring problem from their last couple of seasons under Hodgson and Dalglish (although looking at it, they've played some tough teams so far), but their inability to get players into the box was a factor in my decision, and the fact that their goal came from a Suarez wonder-strike rather proves my point in some ways. They need a striker in January I think.

I said: 1-1, +3pts
Del said: 2-0, +0pts
Rami said: 2-1, +0pts

West Brom L Southampton

I said: 1-1
Del said: 3-1
Rami said: 1-1

Me



Correct results- 3

Perfect scorelines- 2, Norwich 1-0 Stoke & Liverpool 1-1 Newcastle

Points- 9

 

Del

Correct results- 0

Perfect scorelines- 1, QPR 1-1 Reading

Points- 3

 

Rami

Correct results- 1

Perfect scorelines- 2, Man Utd 2-1 Arsenal & Fulham 2-2 Everton

Points- 7

Although West Brom and Southampton don't play until Monday night, that result won't affect the outcome of this because me and Rami have predicted the exact same scoreline, so he can't gain any points on me! So I am the prediction champion for this week... my thanks to Del and Rami who took part, if you want to have a go at this game feel free to send me your predictions next week via twitter:

 

@_thescore

I shall see you soon.

The relegation dogfight

Lets' take a look at which teams can potentially get relegated from the Premier League this season because I think it'll be one of the battles that can go down to the last match of the season. So far, I wouldn't say there is an obvious team who will definately go down, like Derby a few years ago, or Sunderland before that. It's all relatively tight and a lot can change, considering we're only a quarter of the way into the season. I would say there are six teams- the bottom six teams- who will probably have relegation worries come May time, and for the moment, I'm going to assume several teams above them: Sunderland, Stoke, Swansea, West Ham and West Brom, to be safe for the moment unless they have a terrible injury crisis in the second half of the season and lose a run of games.

The teams I think most likely to go down are:

 

QPR

 

Overview: currently prop up the Premiership table, having picked up just 3pts from 9 games, albeit having played some hard matches. I don't feel like their position will be cemented for the rest of the season though; they managed a draw with Everton and put in an encouraging defensive display at Arsenal recently, showing signs of improvement. I get the impression QPR can turn things around under Hughes, it was refreshing to see Fernandes come out and publicly support him, and they've got some winnable games coming up.

 

Strengths: quite simple, really. The financial backing Tony Fernandes has given Hughes, investing I think over £40 mil in the squad over the past year, is fantastic. The general quality of the squad also suggests they should be a midtable team, you've got to think it will eventually come together for them...

 

Weaknesses: lack of cohesion and team spirit within the team? Conceding 18 goals from 9 PRM matches is worrying; it would be okay if they made up for it by having a great scoring record, but only scoring 7 goals in those games is quite poor as well, if they keep that record they will inevitably continue to lose. Hughes needs to produce more bang for Fernandes's buck.

 

Key player: Esteban Granero. One word- quality.

 

Next 5 games: Reading (h), Stoke (a), Southampton (h), Man Utd (a), Sunderland (a). The Man United game aside, all of their games in November are ones in which they can realistically get results- they would hope to get at least 7pts from those games which would go some way to helping their cause in the relegation battle.

 

Verdict: I think eventually they'll turn this around, either with Hughes or a new manager, and stay up.

 

Southampton

 

Oveview: The Saints currently sit two points away from safety, with just one win so far this season. However, in their 9 Premiership matches so far this season, they have already played 6 of the top 7 teams in the league and, apart from the Arsenal match, they've been very much in all of those games. They've got some winnable home games coming up, their fans have demonstrated a great deal of support for Nigel Adkins who has been very defiant in interviews- it would take a short-sighted Southampton fan to give up at this stage.

 

Strengths: It's certainly worth noting that, joint-with-Swansea, Southampton have got the best 'goals for' record in the bottom half of the league and have actually scored more goals than Arsenal. Rickie Lambert and Jay Rodgriguez have shown signs of promise as goalscorers with 7 goals between them this season, and they are still awaiting the return of Gaston Ramirez.

 

Weaknesses: highest goalscorers in the bottom half of the table? 19th? What are their weaknesses? You do the maths. They've leaked 26 goals; that's 8 more goals conceded than any other side in the league and have to address this issue, by working on it in training, and investing in their defence in January if they want to have a hope of staying in this league. There's no benefit in being able to score 3 goals, if you're letting in 4 at the other end.

 

Key player: Undoubtably Rickie Lambert. He's the man who makes this Southampton team tick going forward, he's such a handful, he takes defenders out of the game and can hold the ball up well, which will definately create space for the likes of Ramirez, Lallana and Rodriguez going forward.

 

Next 5 games: West Brom (a), Swansea (h), QPR (a), Newcastle (h), Norwich (h). I would definately give Southampton a chance of getting points in all of those games, again, 7 or 8 points will be the target from these matches- beating the likes of QPR and Norwich especially will be key to building up their points tally, whilst knocking others down around them psychologically in the process.

 

Verdict: I do have a feeling Southampton can stay up, partly because I've got a soft spot for them and also their goalscoring record, but if severe defensive problems aren't fully addressed then I can see them just falling under the trap door.

 

Reading

 

Overview: Reading's inability to hold onto wins has left them in the relegation zone, and in trouble. Like the aforementioned teams, Reading are playing some of the bottom sides in November and have a game in hand, so again it would be wrong for Royals fans to be pressing the panic button, but at the end of the day, three times have got to go down- not everyone can survive.

 

Strengths: They've got a bit of strength in depth in terms of attacking options. Le Fondre, Pogrebnyak, Hunt and Roberts are all capable, particularly Pogrebnyak, of scoring goals and that can be important thing to have in the winter months when the injuries start mounting.

 

Weaknesses: I would argue they've not got enough experience. The fact that they've thrown away so many opportunities to get that first win when all they needed were some composed heads to retain possession and slow the tempo down. There are no midfielders in th

eir first team who are proven in the Premier League, which is what worries me about them.

 

Key player: I would say Pavel Pogrebnyak. The clinical Russian has been deadly in front of goal, I remember him scoring a hatful of goals when he'd just signed for Fulham in January last season, so I'm surprised he left them to go to Reading. A similar sort of player to Jermain Defoe, he's got such an eye for goals, you give him the ball with a bit of space and he will put it in the back of the net. Key to Reading's chances.

 

Next 5 games: QPR (a), Norwich (h), Everton (h), Wigan (a), Aston Villa (a). It's only when you look at each team's next few fixtures when you realise how many of these teams are playing each other in November! It should be a critical month in the battle to avoid the drop. Playing away from home in most of these games won't favour Reading, they won't settle for it but I think they could be lucky to average a point a game this month.

 

Verdict: Again, I'm struggling to come up with a definitive verdict because a lot of this depends on how the teams down the bottom get on when they play each other, and of course the number of injuries. I think it could go down to the last day for Reading, but I'll predict a narrow relegation.

 

Aston Villa

 

Overview: With all three teams in the relegation zone still very much alive and kicking, the spotlight could be about to fall on Villa. Maybe that's me as a Blues fan being optimistic but they've got to play all three teams who finished in the top three of the Premiership last season in November and the apparent unhappiness of Darren Bent could cause Villa some problems, I think they need to watch themselves...

 

Strengths: They've got the best defensive record of all the teams in the bottom six, Vlaar looks to be a decent signing.

 

Weaknesses: Paul Lambert's gamble of bringing through youth prospects and good young players from the lower leagues, like he did at Norwich, hasn't had enough of a platform of experienced players who can provide these youngsters with the confidence they need to express themselves. I think a few times at Villa park the fans have got on the team's back and they've not had the maturity to deal with it. I also think Lambert's handling of Darren Bent has been poor, and a little naive.

 

Key player: Belgian striker Christian Benteke looks to be finding his feet, with an impressive return of four goals so far this season, when many expected him to take a while to adapt to the Premier League. He's only 21 but can hold the ball up and score goals like a proven Premiership striker.

 

Next 5 games: Sunderland (a), Man Utd (h), Man City (a), Arsenal (h), Reading (h). They can write off the games against the Manchester clubs, and are unlikely to get a point out of Arsenal. The main aim for them will be to get four points out of Sunderland and Reading. If they can't get any wins this month they will be very much in trouble.

 

Verdict: Their lack of experience, particularly in midfield, makes me think the phrase 'too good to go down' won't necessarily apply to them. If they lose too many more games I'm not sure how long Lambert will last with the Villa fans, and then who would they get to replace him? Villa are in more trouble than their fans would like to admit.

 

Norwich

 

Overview: The Canaries seem to be really coming into form under Hughton, being a Birmingham City fan I know how good he is at motivating teams and he immediately gets the respect of the players. Beating Arsenal was a real statement that they can pull together and stay up, plus being unlucky to draw at Villa and to then beat Spurs in the Carling Cup will give them an awful lot of confidence going into what are some tough games, and also away matches against the teams around them.

 

Strengths: Team spirit. I thought with Lambert going, they would lose their competitive edge, what made them so strong last season, and suffer from second-season-syndrome. It seemed to start off that way, when heavy defeats at Fulham, Liverpool and Chelsea were only married with draws against teams like QPR and West Ham at home, who they should be beating. But then, out of the blue they managed a win against Arsenal, in which the players showed a lot of self-belief, but that result also gave them self-belief, so it's been an upward spiral from there.

 

Weaknesses: Similar to Reading and Villa really, they lack that proven Premiership player(s) in midfield. They've got Jonny Howson and Bradley Johnson in the centre of the park, neither of whom have much Premiership experience or definitive quality, they rely solely on the hardworking, no-ego nature of the squad to make up for lack of obvious technical quality.

 

Key player: John Ruddy. If Norwich's 5-2 defeat to Liverpool didn't exist, the Canaries would have a good defensive record at Carrow Road, and John Ruddy has made a series of important saves for them.

 

Next 5 games: Stoke (h), Reading (a), Man Utd (h), Everton (a), Southampton (a). The good thing about their position in the table at the moment, is that they can afford to draw at Reading and Southampton, which, being away from home as well, might mean the pressure is taken off them a bit. I can't quite see them getting anything out of United or Everton, although stranger things have happened, but Norwich can get three draws from this month and still be in a good position to stay up.

 

Verdict: I think Norwich's unity and motivation under Hughton will be key to their successes this season, and I think it'll be enough to survive all but the worst injury crisises unscathed.

 

Wigan

 

Overview: Considering they normally come good around March time, Wigan will be pretty happy to sit 15th, and 4pts clear of the relegation zone. Martinez has gone them playing some great football, they've got a couple of winnable home games coming up this month as well, so on the whole things are looking bright for the Latics, if they can firm up defensively at home.

 

Strengths: Some of the football they played against West Ham last week wouldn't have looked out of place at a good European team; like Bilbao or Ajax. If they could play like that every week they would be in the top half of the table in no time and Kone and Di Santo look to be forming a real understanding up front for Wigan.

 

Weaknesses: I do mean IF they could play like that every week they would be in the top half, but the main problem for them has been the inconsistency- sometimes you just don't know which Wigan team will turn up.

 

Key player: Arouna Kone. An absolute coup from Roberto Martinez's point of view, his bullish work rate and passion for the game, has seen him get not just three goals, but he's also created a lot more for the team hassling and harrying defenders, they make mistakes and Wigan often profit. A great team player.

 

Next 5 games: Tottenham (a), West Brom (h), Liverpool (a), Reading (h), Man City (h). They'd be happy to get a single point out of games against Tottenham, Liverpool and Man City, but the opportunity for wins is there at home to Reading, who are down the bottom, and West Brom, who can perhaps rest on their laurels a little bit. Six points would be a realistic target, maybe seven if one of the bigger clubs have a bad day at the office.

 

Verdict: The way Wigan are playing at the moment is something they should be proud of, it can be brilliant to watch and I think they've got one of the best managers in the country in Roberto Martinez. I think they'll stay up as long as the Spaniard is in charge.

You get the feeling November will be a critical month for clubs in the battle to beat the drop, with six matches involving the bottom six clubs playing each other. I think by the beginning of December we'll have a clearer picture of who can stay up, and who are relegation bound. For the time being though, my tips for relegation are Reading, Aston Villa and Southampton.

My premiership predictions- 01/11/12

Hi folks, hope you've had a good week, I'm looking forward to the weekend's games and am going to watch Blues play at home to Ipswich in the Championship, who are bottom of the table and have just sacked their manager. Knowing Blues, we might be able to sneak a draw.

 

We've got the same players as last week: Rami, owner of football blog 'foot and ball', and he won by 3 points last time. Also, sending in her predictions again, is Del, who came last the week before but correctly predicted the Chelsea-Man U game.

The competitions is on, lets go to the games...

 

Man Utd vs. Arsenal

 

An intriguing, and no-doubt heated clash, will see the team with the best ‘goals scored’ record in the Premiership play that with the best ‘goals against’. How Arsenal seem to have solidified under Steve Bould’s new assistant role, that crazy Reading game in midweek aside, makes me think this won’t be a repeat of this fixture last season, when United hammered the Gunners 8-2. Having said that, Wenger's side haven’t exactly been producing confident performances of late; they went down to a shock defeat at Norwich, badly lost at home to German outfit Schalke, and it took them a red card and a scrappy late goal from Arteta to see off bottom-of-the-table QPR last week. With United on a high after getting a late winner of their own against Chelsea, and the attention slightly off Arsenal old-boy RVP who’s scored his first few goals for his new club now, I think the Red Devils will win this. 2-0, and van Persie to get one of the goals with hopefully a modest celebration.

Del says: "After their 7 goal triumph in the football league cup I can see Arsenal more than holding their own at Old Trafford. The red devils had better watch out!" 2-3

Rami says: 2-1

 

 

Fulham vs. Everton

 

The fact that Fulham have picked up as many points at home this season as Manchester United tells you that this will be a difficult game for Everton, but it’s one they should be looking to win if they want to beat either Arsenal or Tottenham to a European spot. Fulham could be potentially looking at European football next season themselves had they managed to hold on to away wins at Southampton and Reading- with an extra 4 points they would actually currently occupy 4th spot, but it seems like it’ll be their home form that they will solely rely on this season, which I don’t think will be quite enough for them to get into the Europa League, and I think Everton might miss out as well. 1-1.

Del says: 1-3

Rami says: 2-2

 

Norwich vs. Stoke

 

Chances will be at a premium in this game. Both of these teams established themselves in the Premier League last season because of their team spirit and competitive edge, which has made up for their lack of obvious technical talent. With both being such hardworking sides, I don't think there'll be much space for the attacking players to really show us what they can do, I'm predicting a game of few, if any goals. Because Norwich seem to be on a run of form, good performances against Arsenal and Villa, I'm going to say they can clinch a hard-fought victory. 1-0, Holt to score.

 

Del says: 0-1

Rami says: 2-1

 

Sunderland vs. Aston Villa

 

Both O’Neill and Lambert opted to field practically their first team in the Carling Cup in midweek, which seemed to me like a dubious decision- how can they expect to keep players fresh and the other 14 players in the 25-man squad happy if they do that? For that reason, I think there could be an element of lethargy in these teams’ play on Saturday, so I’m seeing a bore draw. Sunderland do seem to have problems scoring goals at the moment, only 6 of them from 8 Premiership games isn't a good return and if the Villains can keep Steven Fletcher quiet on Saturday I would argue they can keep a clean sheet. However, the Villa have got goalscoring problems of their own- Darren Bent is probably somewhere within the top 10/15 strikers in the Premiership and I just can't understand why Lambert doesn't play him, and if it's for confrontational reasons, well then you've got to question his handling of Bent from the outset. A goalless draw feels the most likely outcome.

Del says: 1-0

Rami says: 1-0

 

Swansea vs. Chelsea

 

I’d be inclined to say there’s a goal in this game for the Swans. Chelsea will be without a number of important players for this match and could suffer from fatigue having been involved in back-to-back dramatic clashes with Manchester United over the past week, the Carling Cup game going to extra time, so Swansea, having just knocked Liverpool out of the cup, might just fancy themselves a bit. I think this game is a big opportunity for the likes of Sturridge and Marko Marin (if Mata is given a rest) to come in and prove their worth to the team; with Chelsea oozing quality in the attacking midfield and wide areas I can’t see them missing the Spanish number 9 as much as some might suggest. 1-3.

Del says: 1-3

Rami says: 1-3

 

Tottenham vs. Wigan

 

Jermain Defoe will have happy memories of playing against Wigan- his five goals back in November 2009 helped Spurs to a remarkable 9-1 win in which he equalled Alan Shearer and Andy Cole’s record for most number of goals a player has scored in a Premiership match (5). He is a deadly finisher; if you give him the ball in the box he will score goals, it’s as simple as that. Tottenham will have been knocked off their, rather comfy, perch by conceding two late goals to the Canaries in midweek and crashing out of the Carling Cup but if anything that competition can prove to become more a distraction in the long-term. Wigan had a cup nightmare of their own losing on penalties to Bradford, albeit with a second string side, but this match was always going to be the priority. I think Wigan will turn up and play some decent football at White Hart Lane, like they did against West Ham, and I have a feeling they might score the opening goal but Tottenham ought to win this eventually. 2-1, and I can see another goal for Defoe to add to his proud collection.

Del says: 3-0

Rami says: 2-0

 

 

West Ham vs. Man City

 

I definitely see this as a potential banana-skin game for Man City. They did look sluggish in the match against Swansea last week, albeit having just come back from Holland, but I expected them to put in a strong performance to make up for that defeat and they didn’t. It does make me think the players don’t seem to have that dying allegiance to Mancini, like the Chelsea team did when they won the title under Mourinho a few years ago, they just don’t look fully committed to the cause. For West Ham, I’m sure Allardyce will let the players know in no uncertain terms that the performance at Wigan last week wasn’t really good enough, and the Hammers being the home team here I think they can bounce back from that to pick up a point. 1-1.

 

Del says: 1-2

Rami says: 0-1

 

QPR vs. Reading

 

I think it'll be QPR who get their first win of the season in this game. They defended reasonably well at Arsenal, although the Gunners had the majority of the play, and showed encouraging signs in getting a draw the week before against Everton, who were 4th at the time. To be fair to them, they’ve had a tougher opening quarter of the season than the average team but they should still have had their first win by now. This will be a must-win for Hughes. As for Reading, it's a crucial game for them as well but their preparation for this match has hardly been ideal; they might still be in a state of shellshock having thrown away a 4-0 lead to lose to Arsenal in the cup midweek, and some players playing 120 minutes in that game won’t have done their fitness and mental planning for this match any favours. For that reason, I’m going to go with QPR, 3-1.

Del says: 1-1

Rami says: 2-0

 

 

Liverpool vs. Newcastle

 

Liverpool haven’t exactly got a reliable home record, they draw more games than they win at Anfield which is a recurring problem they haven’t stamped out since last season, and that’s what you’ve got to have, home consistency, if you want a place in Europe. Despite their defeat in midweek to Rodger’s old club Swansea, going out of the cup could be a blessing in disguise because they’ve not got the biggest squad, and the tiki-taka man will want to prioritise getting their league form right before anything else. For Newcastle, they are yet to win an away game this season but you’ve always got a chance of scoring goals with a player like Demba Ba in your team, he's so sharp, so I think they will get a draw, which they’ll be reasonably pleased with. 1-1.

Del says: 2-0

Rami says: 2-1

 

West Brom vs. Southampton

 

Despite an 11-place difference between the teams in the table, Southampton have actually scored more goals than West Brom this season, and are the joint-highest scorers with Swansea in the bottom half of the table. This for me, epitomises my dilemma in predicting who will go down: Norwich are ticking now under Chris Hughton, QPR have got so much money either Hughes will turn it around or someone will replace him, Reading do look capable of scoring goals and might have some money in the kitty themselves, West Ham and Baggies have started very well, Villa seem like too big a club to go down and Martinez has got Wigan playing with a lot of confidence. Might do an article on this later, because I think it’s a very difficult one to call. I just think Southampton, if they can address their problems at the back, and Adkins has showed such defiancy in recent interviews, I have a feeling they can do it as well. But of course ultimately there will be three teams who go down, it's dog-eat-dog. I’m struggling to see West Brom getting sucked into the relegation mixer with performances like they put in at Newcastle last week, might go for another 1-1 draw to finish off with.

Del says: 3-1

Rami says: 1-1

 

And that's all for now. Good luck if your team is playing this weekend, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about the Blues game. You've got to think a win is on the cards, but only Birmingham City could possibly play at home to the league's bottom side who have just sacked their manager, and lose the game. Having said that, we impressively won at Leeds last week and by all accounts we're defending slightly better- couldn't get to that game- so we shall see. I don't like to tempt fate, but I'll, rather pointlessly, throw my hat into the ring and say 2-0 to Blues for that game.

 

See you soon.