Both Yeovil and Barnsley face the possibility of losing
their Championship status this weekend, on trips to Brighton and Middlesbrough
respectively. Back-to-back wins for Nottingham Forest have seen them return to
the play-off picture, and they travel to Bournemouth, whose fleeting play-off
hopes appear to be over. At the Keepmoat, there’s a key game at both ends of
the table. Doncaster’s poor form sees them 1 point above the drop zone, while a
win for Reading would see them maintain their play-off position going into the
final day. Here’s a preview of all the matches.
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| Gary Johnson |
Brighton vs. Yeovil
Brighton are unbeaten in 6, but missed a great opportunity
to stay in the play-offs when they drew against Blackpool. The Seagulls lacked
creativity and perhaps played at too slow a tempo, which has been their problem
for much of this season, they struggle to really stretch teams. Yeovil are
effectively down. The only thing that could save them would be a remarkable
14-goal swing between themselves and Birmingham in the remaining games, as well
as the three teams above them taking zero points. Manager Gary Johnson is
resigned to the drop, and failure to win in the Friday night game would
rubber-sap his side’s relegation. Brighton to put the Glovers out of their
misery. 2-0.
Burnley vs. Ipswich
At the third game of asking, Burnley are over the promotion
line, and can play their final home match without any pressure. The focus
therefore, is entirely on Ipswich, because they still have a chance of getting
that final play-off spot. The Tractor Boys could not hold onto their win over
Bournemouth, they dropped points from a winning position, and that is not the first
time that has happened. You always think of Mick McCarthy’s teams as solid and
hard to break down, but maybe the problem has been that the midfield has sat
back too much, and they’ve invited pressure onto themselves. The fact that
Ipswich had 40% possession against Bournemouth, suggests that this could be the
case. Even though Burnley’s fate is secured, I think they’ll remain
professional until the end. 2-1.
Birmingham vs. Leeds
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| Nikola Zigic |
Birmingham had as many as 5 different players out of
position against Blackburn on Monday. They changed to 4-4-2 in the second half,
and the introduction of Nikola Zigic made a difference, but improvement was hollow
in the face of a 4-goal deficit. Leeds had 69% possession, and 25 shots against
Forest on Monday, but they still lost 2-0. Possession football is not exactly
something you’d associate with Leeds under Brian McDermott, but they couldn’t
get the ball into the dangerous areas, so early defensive mishaps proved
costly. Neither side are playing with too much confidence at the moment, making
this a tight game in prospect. 1-1.
Bournemouth vs. Nottm Forest
While Bournemouth’s play-off hopes have faded in the last couple
of weeks, Nottingham Forest’s have re-ignited. A couple of new faces coming
into the team has led to a resurgence from Forest. Academy graduate Ben Osborn
had barely played before the appointment of Gary Brazil, but he has impressed,
and was voted fans’ man of the match against Birmingham. Likewise Stephen
McLaughlin, who had been on loan at Bristol City, grabbed an assist on his
debut against Leeds. These additions have given the side a much-needed
shake-up. Realistically, Bournemouth had to win at Ipswich to stay in the
play-off race, but take nothing away from the season they’ve had. I’m fancying
Forest for this. 1-2.
Charlton vs. Blackburn
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| Marvin Sordell |
Just when you were thinking Charlton haven’t got a
goalscorer, Marvin Sordell pops up with a hat-trick. Sordell has always had
pace, but he showed some quality finishing at Sheffield Wednesday too, which is
a good combination for any striker. Blackburn still have an outside chance of
reaching the play-offs. With four teams between them and sixth, you get the
impression that too many sides would need to drop points for them to get in,
and that’s in the event that they take maximum points. Rudy Gestede will get
much credit for his hat-trick at Birmingham for Rovers, but right winger Josh
King was a real threat down the right flank. We could soon be seeing more of
the Norwegian’s talent, which once attracted the attentions of the Manchester
United youth setup. If the game is level in the closing stages, Blackburn will
be forced to push men forward, and this could open things up for Charlton to utilize
Sordell’s pace. 2-1.
Derby vs. Watford
Watford let go of a second half lead at QPR, and with that
went their thin play-off chances. By all accounts it was an encouraging
performance at Loftus Road, however. The recent form of Lewis McGugan has
enhanced what is now looking like a very strong midfield, so Massimo Cellino
will have plenty of positives to take into the summer. Derby look certain to
secure 3rd place, which may be an advantage in the play-offs. Below 5th
place Wigan, there is a relatively big gap in quality, so it will be best to
play the team that finishes 6th in the semi-finals. At the moment,
it looks as though Derby will have momentum on their side, having won four
consecutive games. Still, Watford can get a result here. 1-1.
Doncaster vs. Reading
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| Abdoulaye Meite |
Reading play better away from home, although Doncaster is
not necessarily the type of team they tend to do well against. Reading have generated
a lot of their positive away results by hitting teams on the counter-attack,
but Doncaster are a side which seem to be set up quite defensively. They are built
to defend a lot of the time, and Paul Dickov will be wary of Reading’s pace on
the break, so he could approach this one in a cautious manner. Rovers certainly
did tha at Millwall, having just 33% possession and failing to get a shot on
target, though much of that was due to Abdoulaye Meite’s red card. If Doncaster
do sit back for long spells, the challenge for Reading will be whether they can
pro-actively unlock their defence. It’s something they have struggled to do
this season. 0-0.
Huddersfield vs. Leicester
Easter Monday saw both teams meet their final objectives of
the season. Huddersfield ensured safety thanks to an injury-time goal at
Yeovil, a belter from Adam Clayton. Meanwhile, Leicester wrapped up the
Championship title with a win at Bolton. Lloyd Dyer came on as a substitute to
bag the winner, his first goal since the end of January, and it could be quite an
important one for him. Dyer has struggled with an Achilles problem in the
second half of this season. Despite enjoying excellent form earlier, he won’t automatically
be part of Nigel Pearson’s plans for the Premier League, if fitness problems
persist. This could be a relaxed, slow tempo type of game where both sides are ‘on
the beach’ to some extent. With Leicester’s quality, they are more likely to
find a winner. 0-1.
Middlesbrough vs. Barnsley
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| Danny Wilson |
A defeat will mean Barnsley are back in the third tier of
English football, for the first time since 2006. Even if Danny Wilson's side get a draw, and
the two sides above them lose, they cannot stay up due to their goal
difference, so it’s win or bust for the Tykes. This might feed into
Middlesbrough’s hands. Under Karanka’s setup, the goals they have scored have
come in short bursts of attacks, and by looking to get the shots away quickly.
This is best approach to have against a team that desperately need to win, because
Barnsley will be more susceptible to lapses in defensive focus. Even though Middlesbrough
have lost back-to-back games recently, I would not be surprised if they won
this at a canter. 3-0.
QPR vs. Millwall
Quality versus grit. QPR have by far the biggest wage bill
in the Championship, and on paper, you’d say they’ve got a much better side
than Millwall. Joey Barton, Ravel Morrison and Charlie Austin are all quality
players for this level. Collectively however, QPR have suffered from both complacency
and an all-round lack of effort this season. Millwall are 6 games unbeaten at
the moment, though Ian Holloway must see their 0-0 draw against Doncaster as 2
points dropped, considering they had a man advantage. The one promising factor
for the visitors, is that their away form has improved lately, with 3
consecutive wins on the road. I would back Millwall to grab a point here. 1-1.
Sheff Wed vs. Bolton
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| Miguel Llera |
Sheffield Wednesday were involved in yet another
high-scoring game on Monday, a 3-2 loss against Charlton. All three of their
opponents goals came due to a lack of pace in defence, and you wonder if this
is an area which manager Stuart Gray will address in the summer. Miguel Llera,
in particular, has been at fault for a lot of the goals they have conceded.
Bolton, by contrast, have been much more solid in recent weeks. The Trotters
have only let in 3 goals in their previous 7 matches, although they did lose their
last game 1-0 to Leicester. In that match, Dougie Freedman moved to a system of
three centre-backs of David Wheater, Zat Knight and Matt Mills. It seems like a
strange decision, because their defence had performed perfectly well beforehand.
These are two teams who started the season in the thick of the relegation battle.
In October, had you offered both sets of fans a lower-midtable position, without
doubt they would have taken it. 1-1.
Wigan vs. Blackpool
There is an incentive for both teams here, because a win for
Wigan mathematically secures their play-off place, but the pressure will be
more on Blackpool. A calamitous season for the Tangerines may well end in
relegation, although a point at Brighton on Monday suggests players are still
fighting. It was a fantastic equalizer from Stephen Dobbie, and Blackpool need
more moments like that to survive the drop. But Wigan are looking much more
likely to provide those moments of quality, as they simply have more
intelligent, skilful players. They know how to press teams high up the pitch
and overload areas to their advantage. Blackpool have taken 10 points since the
start of December, which does not put them in a favourable position to stop
Wigan. 2-0.
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