Gabriel's Championship Predictions: 22nd February

There are key games in all battles in the Championship this weekend. Nottingham Forest, who are unbeaten since the end of November, will go two points behind the second automatic promotion spot if they can become the first Championship side to win at Turf Moor this season. The race for the final play-off spot is hotting up too. Brighton host Wigan, as both teams look to gain ground on Reading, who play Blackburn, a side who might also be eyeing that play-off place themselves. As for the battle to beat the drop, this Saturday will see four of the current bottom five playing against each other, as Yeovil could move to within three points off safety with a win over a Doncaster side with a concerning away record, while Barnsley look to get their second victory under Danny Wilson against Millwall, who are in poor form and looking precariously over their shoulders. Here is our preview of the action.

Middlesbrough vs. Leeds

Shay Given

Aitor Karanka has openly criticized his Middlesbrough players’ attitudes, after they went five games without a win, failing to score in each of them. Having a go at your own players can be a risky approach for a manager to take, and it will be interesting to see how the Boro players respond. What’s more, Shay Given’s loan will expire after this match and that will could be a problem, because they are relying on being able to keep a clean sheet to pick up points. Leeds have had an eleven day break, after their loss at Brighton further hindered their chances of getting a play-off spot. Brian McDermott can recall target man Matt Smith from injury, but he might take time to return to full fitness, and the experience of Jonathan Woodgate at the back for Boro should be able to cope with him. This might not be the best game for the Sky cameras to show, as these two sides both look likely to finish mid-table. 1-1.

Barnsley vs. Millwall

The partnership of Chris O’Grady and Nick Proschwitz looks to have some potential at Barnsley. O’Grady has the strength to hold the ball up, and Proschwitz, although he’s tall, has some clever movement and looks a decisive finisher. There is still time for this budding duo to save the Tykes. They need to start winning quickly, having won just once since Wilson took over, despite some encouraging performances. Millwall’s problem is they have little pace in defence, so Ian Holloway has brought in left-back Federico Bessone. This might not solve the problem, because Bessone was available as a free agent, and has not played competitive football for some ten months. The survival bid of both these teams is centred wholly on their home form, and that is why Barnsley may grab a win here. 2-1.

Blackpool vs. Birmingham

Faris Haroun

Blackpool have steadied the ship a little bit lately, with just two defeats from five games. Although they’ve still not picked up a win since the end of November, at least they are no longer on that painful losing streak, so they are unlikely to get sucked into the relegation dogfight. The arrival of Faris Haroun could give them a boost. Although the Tangerines did not score at Ipswich, Haroun looked lively and may provide Barry Ferguson’s side a much-needed spark in midfield. Given the fact that they have only won once since the turn of the year, you might not have guessed that Birmingham have the joint-second best away form in the Championship. The Blues have taken ten points from their last six on the road, and have only been beaten once away since mid-October. 1-1.

Bolton vs. Watford

Bolton Wanderers have not won a match since Boxing Day, and are struggling to build confidence. Although they did not lose at Millwall last week, the midfield and defence was all over the place, and there seems to be no sense of leadership within the camp. If they want to improve their organisation, perhaps Bolton could take a leaf out of Watford’s book. The Hornets have kept four clean sheets from their last five games, although they could not find a winner against bottom of the table Yeovil on Tuesday night. In the 1999 play-off final, Watford won this fixture 2-0, and we could see a repeat of that scoreline here. 0-2.

Brighton vs. Wigan

Uwe Rosler

Brighton have won their last three home games 1-0. Although they only won four times at the AMEX in the first half of the season, their home record is clearly improving, and an ability to hold onto the ball has been key to this. But Wigan have won their last three, recently knocking Premier League Cardiff out of the FA Cup. However, this is the first of four difficult away games between now and April for the Latics, who have challenging trips to Forest, Ipswich and QPR coming up. These are two teams who are at similar levels in terms of quality and defensive structure, and a tight game is very much on the cards. 1-1.

Burnley vs. Nottm Forest

Burnley took what turned out to be a decent point at Bournemouth last week, with QPR losing. However, they now play two teams who are likely to test their unbeaten home record. in Derby, and Saturday’s opponents, Nottingham Forest. Forest are unbeaten since the end of November, and Jamie Paterson looks to be in excellent form for Billy Davies’s side. If he plays in his usual role cutting in from the left, he could get a few more goalscoring opportunities, with Burnley’s right-back Trippier quite attack-minded. The main problem regarding both of these teams’ promotion ambitions, is that they both draw a lot of games, and sometimes lack the audacity to attack to try and win in the closing stages. For that reason, a draw is the fair bet. 1-1.

Charlton vs. QPR

Ravel Morrison

Charlton have now lost their last four league games, so things are certainly looking ominous at the Valley. The Addicks have only scored once since New Years’ Day, and they seem to be suffering from the loss of their main striker, Yann Kermorgant. QPR have loaned in Ravel Morrison from West Ham, but that might not be the solution to their lack of creativity this season. It is not as if Harry Redknapp does not have flair players available to him, with Benayoun, Hoilett and Kranjcar in the squad, but they have simply not performed. QPR need to better manage the players they have got, rather than constantly look to bring in new ones. However, even after back-to-back defeats, the Rs might just get back onto the promotion path with a hard-fought win. 0-1.

Derby vs. Bournemouth

One of QPR’s recent defeats was to Derby County, who are now unbeaten in six. January loanee Patrick Bamford has played a critical role in their return to form, having scored in five of his last six games, many of them being vital goals. Bournemouth have only lost one of their last five games, but on the other hand, they have only won one of their last eight! From seven games against the Championship’s top five teams, they have taken three points. The case is often that they do not disgrace themselves, but end up lacking that bit of quality and lose by the odd goal. We may see a similar story here. 2-1.

Huddersfield vs. Sheff Wed

Oliver Norwood

Huddersfield have won three of their last four home games, and positive performances at the John Smith’s stadium have been key to a progressive season for the Terriers. As well as a number of striking options, they are starting to add goals from midfield, as Oliver Norwood and Adam Clayton both netted in the win at Birmingham. After back-to-back defeats, this could be the time where Sheffield Wednesday’s results under Stuart Gray start to dwindle, and it would seem the novelty of the new manager effect has somewhat worn off. In their last two games, Wednesday seem to have developed a habit of firing shots at goal from range, which suggests they have lost that bit of confidence they had over that eleven game unbeaten run. This will be an eighth home win of the season for Huddersfield. 2-0.

Leicester vs. Ipswich

If a couple of draws against Watford and Forest are the extent of the damage in terms of Leicester dropping points, they have nothing to worry about, and should still cruise to promotion. In fact, a point at Nottingham Forest can be considered a good result, because they were a goal behind with a few minutes to go, and now they have a favourable run of games coming up. Charlton, Blackpool and Yeovil are the next three home games after this, so if they can keep winning those sorts of matches, they will go up. Ipswich’s chances, not only of getting a result here but also of making the play-offs, have taken a huge blow by the fact that David McGoldrick could be injured for the rest of the season. McGoldrick has netted sixteen times during this campaign – that’s over 37% of Ipswich’s overall goal tally. With him out of the equation, this should be a comfortable one for Leicester. 2-0.

Reading vs. Blackburn

Garath McCleary

You’d expect to see an open, entertaining game here. Reading recently won 3-1 at QPR, thanks to another good performance from Gareth McCleary, and they will go into this game full of confidence. On the other hand, Blackburn will see this game as a better opportunity than they are ever going to get to push towards the play-offs. Reading currently occupy that sixth spot, but a win for Blackburn would take them to four points behind the Royals with a game in hand. Rovers are likely to approach this one in an attacking, ‘nothing-to-lose’ kind of mood. This is a difficult one to call because Reading have a habit of following up an emphatic win with a disappointing result, and you never quite know which Royals side are going to turn up. 2-2.

Yeovil vs. Doncaster

By contrast, this is a game where chances could be at a premium. For a start, Doncaster do not tend to play with too much confidence away from home. In four away games since the turn of the year, they have had a total of just eleven shots on target, and almost twice that amount at home. Paul Dickov seems to encourage a more cautious mentality on the road. But Yeovil have a better away record than home, despite not having had a majority in possession away since the match at Leeds in early November. This suggests that they are generally a counter-attacking team, and are at their best when their opponents try to push men forward against them. These two factors could contribute to something of a stalemate, and a goalless draw seems a plausible outcome. 0-0.