Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Gameweek Twenty

My predictions for this weekend's matches in the Premier League and Championship.

Premier League

Man City vs. Arsenal

The result changed nothing in the context of their group, but Manchester City’s 3-2 win at Bayern Munich could change everything in the context of their season. Nobody gave them hope when they were 2-0 down after twelve minutes, yet the way they fought back in Germany will give Pellegrini confidence that they can transform their away blues. On Wednesday night, Arsenal scraped into the knockout phases of the Champions League, despite a 2-0 defeat in Napoli. The concern for Wenger will be that they looked very leggy in the closing stages of that match, and his side have had less time to prepare. The other factor is that City fielded a rotated team at the Allianz Arena, whereas Arsenal were forced to play a full strength side, after a difficult game against Everton on the Sunday. The events of the week leading up to this match definitely favours Manchester City. 2-0.

Cardiff vs. West Brom

Two teams who are not playing with too much confidence at the moment. Cardiff have failed to score in each of their last three matches, and now hold the second worst goalscoring record in the league. They need more creativity in central midfield, because at the moment their plan is to keep playing the long ball out to the right, and it is becoming too easy to read. Things are not looking particularly good for West Brom either. They have lost their last three matches and have only won once since that famous victory at Old Trafford back in September. They had been through a difficult run of fixtures, yet a 2-0 home defeat to Norwich suggests morale is slipping. 1-1.

Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace

When it was confirmed that both Ian Holloway and Jose Mourinho would be Premier League managers this season, we were all excited for the charisma they would bring to Match of the Day. However, Holloway left Crystal Palace in October, while Mourinho has not looked like his former self since returning to Stamford Bridge. Not least because Chelsea have not been as organized defensively as they were during the Special One’s first spell in charge, having conceded eleven goals in their last six league games. In recent weeks Crystal Palace have actually looked much stronger at the back than their West London opponents, having conceded only one goal in their last five matches. Chelsea may just have to grind out a win. 1-0.

Everton vs. Fulham

Complacency is a danger for Everton. Martinez’s first fifteen games in charge has gone better than he can have expected, and to take four points from Old Trafford and the Emirates in the space of four days is a great achievement. But the Toffees have a lot of young players in their squad and it will be all too easy for them to get carried away. Fulham’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa could rejuvenate the team under their new manager, and the recent return of Phillippe Senderos will be key to their defensive efforts, with Brede Hangeland facing another six weeks out. This game might just be a bit of an anti-climax for Everton. 1-2.

Newcastle vs. Southampton

Two teams who have performed above expectations this season, and both look on course for a top half finish. It is Newcastle who are in the better form of late. The Magpies have won four of their previous five matches, the last of which being a 1-0 win at Manchester United. The key in this upturn in form has been improved performances from midfield, because earlier in the season they were too reliant on solo efforts from Hatem Ben Arfa – he’s not even in the team now. Southampton have only taken one point from their last four matches, although that draw was against Manchester City. The point came thanks to a great strike from Pablo Osvaldo, who must build on that goal to justify his £15 million price tag. Newcastle are in the ascendency, while Southampton will continue their testing run of fixtures during the festive period. 2-1.

West Ham vs. Sunderland

It does not seem right to call one match - before Christmas - a ‘must-win game’, but both teams are in desperate need of three points. Sunderland begin a favourable run of fixtures between now and mid-January. They face five of the current bottom ten, including relegation strugglers Cardiff, Fulham, and Saturday’s opponents West Ham. Despite a 3-0 win over Fulham recently, the Hammers are in trouble. They have lost four of their previous five, conceding at least three goals on three of those occasions. With Meulensteen looking to have revitalized relegation rivals Fulham, West Ham urgently need results to improve. Sunderland will take heart from the fact that they only lost to Chelsea and Tottenham by one goal, so this could be a scrappy win for the visitors. If it happens, an away win would put some pressure on the West Ham board, regarding Sam Allardyce’s position as manager. 1-2.

Hull vs. Stoke

I must have been the only person who tipped Stoke for a win last weekend, and that will leave some of you suspicious given the recent match fixing scandals! That was a fantastic win for the Potters which will give the team a lift, and especially boost the confidence of Oussama Assaidi who scored the winner, because he has not made much of an impression so far. Talking of confidence boosters, Danny Graham grabbed his first goal in a Hull shirt on Monday night when he netted at Swansea, a draw which took Bruce’s side to five points clear of the drop zone. If Graham can start finding some consistency, Hull look well placed to join Stoke as one of the Premier League’s established, midtable teams. The Tigers have taken fourteen of their eighteen points at home, while Stoke have taken four of their seventeen points away, so a home win is on the cards. 2-1.

Aston Villa vs. Man Utd

Home clean sheets are like buses for Aston Villa. Until recently, they had not had one since December last year, but now they have forced their visitors to draw a blank on two consecutive occasions. The Villains put in a poor performance at Fulham last Sunday, going down to a 2-0 loss in West London, and now they face Manchester United. If there is one thing the Red Devils need to do, it is convert their strong showing in Europe into league form. They topped their group with fourteen points from six games, although their performance in the final match against Shakhtar was less than convincing. Aston Villa play three in central midfield and this is how Manchester United often struggle. David Moyes insists on sticking to just two men in the centre and this is often leaves United getting overrun, so do not be surprised to see them drop more points. 1-1.

Norwich vs. Swansea

Despite a 5-1 tonking at Liverpool recently, Norwich are in good form, having won three of their last five matches. They are now four points clear of relegation danger and £5 million man Gary Hooper looks like he can be a much-needed goalscorer for the Canaries, having netted twice in his last three. Two wins, two defeats and two draws from Swansea’s last six league games, and with such inconsistent performances the Swans are one of the most difficult teams to predict. However, they may struggle for goals with three strikers unavailable, whereas Norwich are just beginning to find some form. 2-0.

Tottenham vs. Liverpool

After a poor first few months of the season for Tottenham, Villas-Boas’s side look to be finding some form after back-to-back away wins, albeit against relegation strugglers Fulham and Sunderland. The main problem for Spurs is that they are still in need of a goalscorer. Soldado has been benched in recent matches, and his counterpart Jermain Defoe has failed to impress. Oh, how Tottenham could do with someone like Luis Suarez. With him in the side, Liverpool have certainly not struggled to score goals, having netted seventeen times in their last five matches. Despite impeccable home form though, the Reds have not won away since September, so they would quite happily take a draw from this match. With Suarez playing so well at the moment, so would Tottenham. 1-1.

The Championship

Leicester vs. Burnley

This match begins a very big week for promotion-chasing Leicester, as matches against the current top two - Burnley and QPR - sandwich a League Cup tie against Manchester City on Tuesday. And yet, this is not a big week just in terms of their opponents. Pearson’s side have experienced back-to-back defeats, they were undone by Brighton last week, looking very exposed defensively in the first half. Burnley put themselves back at the top of the table with a first win since October on Saturday, they beat Barnsley 1-0. They had just 41% possession in that match, and this typifies their ability to sit deep for a lot of a game and then find a moment of class from Ings or Vokes. As the home side a point below their Lancashire opponents, the pressure will be largely on Leicester to win, and this might just work in Burnley’s favour. 0-1.

Barnsley vs. Yeovil

Despite having a lot of possession, Barnsley could not take any points from Toof More on Saturday, with Tomas Cywka particularly culpable. The Tykes have no difficulties passing the ball around nicely, but goalscoring is becoming a problem at Oakwell, because Barnsley have failed to score in four of their last five games. As for their visitors from Somerset, in three matches since Gary Johnson has pulled his strings in the loan market, Yeovil have taken an impressive seven points. The experienced Ishmael Miller coming has helped them on the attacking side, he adds a touch of quality, and has already netted twice. It was an important loan signing too, because last season’s top scorer Patrick Madden has not cut it at this level. Both teams would be exceeding expectations if they can stay up on such low budgets, and this will be a scrappy game. 1-1.

Blackburn vs. Millwall

DJ Campbell has been given ‘time off’ by Blackburn Rovers due to police investigations, as the issue of match-fixing in football rears its ugly head. It will be difficult for manager Gary Bowyer to refocus the team after this. His side have just one win in their last five, although the Rovers held their own at QPR last week in a 0-0 draw. Millwall, though stubborn at home, have taken just one point from their last five outings. They get a fraction of their overall points tally in games away from the Den, so neither of these bottom half teams are looking look too menacing going into this one. A draw is the most likely outcome. 1-1.

Blackpool vs. QPR

Blackpool’s team is being diminished by the minute, after five dismissals in the space of two games last week. They have now picked up eight red cards since the start of the season, far more than any other side in the division. Key defender Gary MacKenzie, top scorer Ricardo Fuller and the versatile Neal Bishop all miss out although thankfully for the Tangerines, Kirk Broadfoot returns. After a 5-1 pasting at Derby, this Blackpool side (or what’s left of it) are hardly in the right state to play QPR. The big news for the West London club this week is the club’s plans to build a new stadium, provoking a mixed reaction from supporters. On the pitch, the Rs were held 0-0 by Blackburn last time out, and this will be a testing time in their quest for promotion. They play four top half opponents between now and New Year, three of those games being on the road. 0-1.

Bournemouth vs. Birmingham

The award for last weekend’s surprise result goes to Bournemouth. After the newly-promoted side went on a run of seven games without a win, they produced a result that is typical of this league – they won at recently relegated Reading. Top scorer Lewis Grabban rediscovered his early season form, by netting a first goal since 5^th October. If he can start firing again then Bournemouth should keep a fair distance from the bottom three. Birmingham fought back twice against Middlesbrough to claim a draw, but their five match unbeaten run papers over the cracks of some mediocre performances. Bournemouth will be on a high after their win at a team like Reading, and so that could give them the confidence to take another three points. 2-1.

Charlton vs. Derby

Last season, Charlton’s home form was their one let down, when they took more points on the road than at the Valley. It is the same this season, as the Addicks have won just once in their last seven home games. This time around, they are in a far more precarious position – just one place above the drop zone. Therefore, this is a good opportunity for Steve McClaren’s Derby to chalk up a seventh away win of the season. The Rams showed off their impressive attacking ability, when they put five second half goals past Blackpool last week. Chris Martin continued his goalscoring form by netting a hat-trick, he has now scored six in his last five games. Charlton can’t win at home, Derby can’t stop winning away – away win? 1-3.

Doncaster vs. Leeds

Two towns who are not too far apart from each other, but due to wildly contrasting histories, the clubs have never developed much of a rivalry. At the Keepmoat, Doncaster have shown they can be a match for any team gunning for promotion, as Leicester and QPR have found to their cost. The Rovers might just fancy their chances against a Leeds side who, although just one point of the play-offs, have lost five of their last six away from home. Despite coming from 2-0 behind at home to Watford last week, Whites fans will have left the match seeing a draw as two points dropped, having blown a late lead. Doncaster can cause the weekend’s surprise result. 2-1.

Huddersfield vs. Reading

James Vaughan continues his worrying form (or lack thereof), after missing a penalty against Ipswich. He has only scored one goal in his last six games now, and is not looking as prolific as he was in the early weeks of this season. Good news for Reading: young captain Sean Morrison has signed a new long-term contract with the club, after putting in some good performances from central defence. Until their 2-1 home defeat to Bournemouth, the Royals had lost three matches since the start of the season. They tended to do well in each game that directly followed a defeat, with two wins and a draw against QPR. Manager Nigel Adkins is clearly good at keeping his side well motivated, and a draw would be a reasonable result for Reading. 1-1.

Middlesbrough vs. Brighton

Middlesbrough threw away a lead late on at Birmingham on Saturday, as protecting the points continues to be Boro’s weakness. An injury to Kei Kamara is a knockback for Karanka, the Sierra Leone international will be out for a month, after impressing on Teeside thus far. Brighton looked strong against Leicester, particularly in the first half. David Lopez, who has been a little uninspiring this season, put in two immaculately-timed passes for the first two goals. Brighton need to see more of that from the Spaniard. Leandro Ulloa returns to the squad, but the form of Ashley Barnes – five goals from five games – means Oscar Garcia won’t necessarily need to force him back in. 1-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Ipswich

Nottingham Forest grinded out a 1-0 win at Sheffield Wednesday last week, by scoring with their only shot on target! The challenge for Billy Davies’s side now is to build on that result, because Forest have not won back-to-back games since August, and that is something that needs to change. Ipswich have won three straight matches but this might just be a spontaneous good run of form, rather than sign of a play-off push. They won at lowly Charlton, and at home against midtable sides in Blackburn and Huddersfield, which is nothing to be overly surprised about. However, the extension of the talented Aaron Cresswell’s contract will please Mick McCarthy. Nottingham Forest though, will get their first home win since September. 2-1.

Watford vs. Sheff Wed

Defensively, Watford have been woeful lately, and seem to be making a habit of conceding three goals. At Leeds, they threw away a two-goal cushion with panic at the back, and they had Troy Deeney’s brace to thank for a point. Two of Leeds’ goals came from wingplay situations, and Gianfranco Zola has often tinkered with his side’s defensive setup over the last few weeks, changing between 3-5-2 and 4-5-1. Perhaps a more settled backline would benefit the Hornets. At Sheffield Wednesday, caretaker manager Stuart Gray is vying for his position full-time. Most Wednesday fans do not want Gray to get the job though, because he is still an unproven manager. Unless the Owls pick up a few wins from now on, the sensible decision for chairman Milan Mandaric would be to play it safe and appoint a manager with more experience. With Wednesday’s next full-time manager not decided yet, Watford can take advantage. Surely this won’t be a fifth consecutive home defeat for Zola’s side. 3-1.

Wigan vs. Bolton

This will be a bizarre start to Uwe Rosler’s time as Wigan manager. His first game in charge of a Championship club was a European away match in Slovenia on Thursday, and his first league game is against local rivals Bolton. Rosler could do well at Wigan. His positive, high-tempo style of football is more suited to what the squad were used to under Roberto Martinez, as opposed to Owen Coyle’s ‘hard-to-beat’ approach. However, it will not be easy for the Latics to beat a Bolton side who have taken nine points from their last four away games, and ran out 3-0 winners against Doncaster last week. If Wigan can take a win against their local rivals it would be a perfect start for Rosler - he might just get it. 2-1.