Why Tony Pulis is the man for Derby

It's clear that Derby County are a club looking for a change of direction. They've spent four years under Nigel Clough, slap-bang in the middle of the Championship table, employing a very ethical approach with the ex-Burton Albion man at the helm. He has done a very good job for the Rams, and is bound to become a manager many look up to in terms of loyalty and trust in young players, yet change is needed for Derby to progress.

In January 2009, the club were having a torrid time. They had been dubbed 'the worst ever Premier League team' the previous season, finishing bottom with just eleven points, and the first half of this season hadn't give Derby fans much reason to be optimistic. With Paul Jewell in charge, they were now languishing 18th in the Championship and just a few points above the drop zone. It was clear things weren't going well.

Jewell was subsequently sacked and Nigel Clough, who had been manager at Burton Albion for eleven years, took the job. He immediately revolutionized the club's youth recruitment network, always brought in young, hungry players, and with little funds made available, he preferred to look to the club's academy to fill a gap in the team, rather than to sign players on temporary, short-term deals. He was always looking to the future, and to some extent this approach paid off, because since his appointment Derby finished higher than in the previous campaign every season, until 2013.

The club became the Championship equivalent of Arsenal. They had one of the youngest squads in the league, made sure they swept up all the best local talent from a young age, and they always played their football with a frenetic energy, looking to get the ball from either box quickly.

However, Clough's passion for youth, and bringing through players who could play exciting football, came at a cost defensively. 254 goals were conceded in 4 seasons, that's an average of 64 per season and 1.4 per game, perhaps due to naivety at the back. Out of all Derby's defenders since Nigel Clough had been in charge, only Gareth Roberts was in his 30s. The team lacked defensive experience, organisation and leadership.

There's also an issue with spending, as the Arsenal similarities continue. Since he took over, Clough only spent a net total of £0.4 million over the course of four years, making a profit in a lot of the transfer windows. In addition, they were very shrewd with their wage structure, because few players at the club are currently earning more than £10,000 per week. Contrastly, Cardiff and Hull who gained automatic promotion last season, spent around £5 million improving the squad. Derby haven't done that, and it's going to get harder and harder for them to compete at the right end of the table with their current business model. The Championship is growing ever more competitive, due to foreign players coming into the Premier League, pushing the best English talent downwards.

There are two contrasting viewpoints on the reasons behind the lack of spending at Pride Park. Some believe that Derby chairman Andrew Appleby has denied Clough the funds to buy the players he wants, and so he has been forced to promote youth to fill the squad. Some believe that Appleby has given Clough the transfer backing, but he's merely opted to develop youth instead. The reality is probably somewhere in between.

It's unlikely Clough has stubbornly rejected any possible opportunity to improve the squad, because he spent £2 million last season on some experienced players in Conor Sammon and Richard Keogh. On the other hand, Appleby was never throwing blank cheques in Clough's face. Appleby is an American businessman, and as with most foreign chairmen, his interior motives for taking over at Derby in the first place were likely to be financial - the club were in the Premier League at the time.

Initially he wanted to establish the Rams as a top flight club, for the TV money, but he spotted potential for profit in Clough's approach. By spending very little each year, because of big attendances, the club make a lot of money. For arguments sake, if there are 23,000 season ticket holders (excluding individual match tickets etc.), and each season ticket costs £400, that's £9 million, plus money from food and programmes. 

Knowing that the club would always be safe in midtable under Clough's guidance, the Derby board were quite happy with the way things were going. Clough was a man passionate about developing youth, he wasn't going to put heavy pressure on Appleby to spend money, when he enjoys getting the best out of young players and believes that to be the way forward. Whilst Appleby, as a businessman, was never going to insist Clough spent his own money if he was making cash with the current system. The way the club was run indirectly suited all parties.

But now the Derby board have more ambition. Appleby feeling he won't reach his ultimate aim of the TV money jackpot in the Premier League with Clough's nuturing approach. A change of direction will be perfectly healthy for the club, and here's why Tony Pulis should be the next Derby manager.

1 - He will tighten up the defence

Under Pulis, Stoke only conceded 249 goals in 5 Premier League seasons. That's an average of 50 per season, and 1.3 per game. In their first season in the top flight, the Potters conceded just 15 home goals. On two occassions, they had the best defensive record of all teams in the bottom half of the table. Pulis has learnt that defensive organisation is key, not only to promotion, but to establishing a club in the Premier League. 35 of promoted Cardiff and Hull's collective 49 wins came by just one goal. Very few times in a season, will top teams win 3 or 4-0 and play perfect football. A large number of times, will teams win 1-0 or 2-1, and have to defend a lead in the last 25 minutes. The difference between promotion, and staying down therefore, is the ability to stay strong defensively. Derby have the talent and potential going forward, but they need to develop a tough, winning mentality at the back, which Pulis will instill.

2 - A more direct style may suit them

The criticisms of Pulis' possible move to Derby are that his 'tackle, hoof' gameplan won't be suitable for a Derby team that is relatively small. Derby's midfield may be more gifted technically than in the air, but the Rams have two target men in their squad in Chris Martin and Conor Sammon. If Martin, the more regular starter can hold the ball up, Derby have plenty of players capable of running from deep in Will Hughes, Jamie Ward and new signing Johnny Russell, who likes to drop off the main striker. Overloading the penalty box quickly will make those players harder to mark, their runs will become more difficult to track. Even if Pulis would favour a route one system from the back, that doesn't take away the technical ability Derby have in midfield, it adds an extra dimension. If the opposition defend a long ball, Will Hughes will receive it in midfield, and he can still dictate play. 

3 - Who else is there?

The odds currently have Steve McLaren, Michael Appleton and Martin O'Neill as the 'favourites'. Whilst I don't blame McLaren solely for his failure with the national team, it will be a massive risk for any club to appoint him, given the pressure he'll be under from opposition fans and media, it will be difficult for him to settle at Derby. Appleton is a very young manager at 37, each of the four manager jobs he's been given in his career, he's not managed to stay for longer than a few months. Martin O'Neill looked out of energy at the end of his time with Sunderland, and for five years managed Derby's rivals Leicester City.

Pulis has experience of managing in the Premier League - successfully. He achieved his aim of making Stoke a consistent feature in the top flight. Even at the expense of playing attractive football and bringing through youth, most Championship clubs would settle for being in the biggest league in the world. That's where Derby can reach if they appoint Tony Pulis.

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Six

Premier League

Tottenham vs. Chelsea

Friends re-united?

This game sees Mourinho meet up with his old friend Villas-Boas, who in my view played an understated part in the Special One’s previous success at Chelsea and Inter Milan. Whilst Mourinho was the enigma in the limelight, AVB was the tactical brains behind the operation, and managing without him will be the Special One’s big challenge at Chelsea. Both managers, rightly, made wholesale changes for their Capital One Cup matches midweek and strong performances give both men something to think about for future games. I’ve got a feeling AVB’s side can topple Mourinho’s men here, although Chelsea have a lot of talented attacking players in their team, I would fancy Spurs to cut the supply to them  by controlling the midfield with players like Dembele and Paulinho in the centre. Spurs to win 1-0.

Aston Villa vs. Man City

How will Villa cope without Benteke?

Aston Villa only won five home games last season, they never seem to excel in front of their own fans, so this should be no problem for a Manchester City team who have scored twelve goals in the last week and a half. The Citizen’s are on a real high at the moment, and perhaps a small piece of humble pie can be eaten on my part with regard to Manuel Pellegrini. I thought he might struggle to settle at City due to the language barrier, they had started poorly, but he’s turned it around and to get such a big win over Manchester United will give everyone a lift. Villa are now without Christian Benteke for six weeks, so their chances of getting an unlikely point depend largely on whether Brad Guzan can have a stormer again. They’ve relied on the American a lot, I feel the quality City have in their team will give him too much to do. 0-3.

Fulham vs. Cardiff

Martin Jol's side start the weekend in the drop zone

This is a big game for Fulham, because four points from five games is a disappointing start, even though they’ve played the likes of Arsenal and Chelsea. Cardiff, who have shown promise early on in their campaign, will provide tough opposition. They’ve had close matches against top teams in Manchester City, Everton and Tottenham at home, and if this was in Cardiff I would definitely fancy them for the win. As they’re playing away, they’re more likely to settle for a point and I think it’ll be a case of them defending doggedly to get it at 0-0.

Hull vs. West Ham

How will the injury to James Chester affect Hull?

An excellent start to the season for newly-promoted Hull. They’ve taken seven points from their first five, despite having already played away against two of last season’s top three teams. My pre-season tip for them to surprise people and stay up comfortably is looking good so far. But both teams are having to contend with early season injury problems, Hull have added James Chester to their list, whilst West Ham are still without a few regular first teamers alongside Andy Carroll. That said, their 3-2 win over Cardiff in the cup will give the Hammers confidence that they can still score goals without him. This is the first of four winnable home games for Hull, but because they’re eleventh, they wouldn’t be too disappointed if this was a draw, and neither would West Ham. Allardyce seems to see most points away from home as a bonus, so I a 1-1 draw seems the most likely outcome.

Man Utd vs. West Brom

Can Moyes turn things around at Old Trafford?

Time for Manchester United to grind out the results. It has to be said they’ve started poorly, taking just one point from the three big games, losing 4-1 at City is a massive blow, and beating Liverpool in the cup will only take some of the sting out of that defeat. The challenge now for Moyes is to repair the damage quickly, and get the team going on a run of wins. I distinctly remember when United lost 6-1, that they won their next three games 1-0, and that’s what Moyes needs to do. Performances are secondary at this stage. West Brom needed that win over Sunderland last week, because this is the start of a hard fixture period for them. The Baggies are a tightly-knit team, having conceded just five goals from seven games in all competitions, so they won’t make it easy for United. The Red Devils to get an important three points with a 1-0 win, it might be tighter than most expect though.

Southampton vs. Crystal Palace

Dejan Lovren has settled in well at Southampton

This match sees the team with the most injury problems in the Premier League host the team with the least. A surprise win for Southampton at Anfield took them up to seventh in the table, although they remain the league’s joint-second lowest scoring team, but that only testifies how well Fonte and Lovren have settled in together at centre-back. You’d have to back them to keep a clean sheet against Crystal Palace, too, as the Eagles are playing quite conservatively at the moment, with five in midfield and the inexperienced Dwight Gayle on his own up front. Southampton’s attack hasn’t quite clicked yet, but the good result they’ve had last week will always breed confidence, so I’ve got a feeling this will be the day that the Saints see the best of £15 million man Osvaldo. The Argentine will help them on their way to a 3-0 win.

Swansea vs. Arsenal

Arsenal chase ninth successive victory

If you’d told Arsenal fans on the underground back from their 3-1 defeat from Aston Villa on the opening day, that they would now be top of the league with twelve points, they would take some convincing. Much credit needs to go to Arsene Wenger for how he’s dealt with the pressure once again, and with joint-top Tottenham playing Chelsea in the early game, Arsenal could well be two points clear on Saturday night. Having made ten changes, Swansea won’t be too disappointed with their 3-1 defeat to Birmingham in the cup, and it was probably the right thing to do with such a tough game at the weekend. Yes, only two teams have scored more goals than Swansea this season, but there’s always a flipside – only three teams have scored less. Arsenal will do the business, even without Theo Walcott. 1-3.

Stoke vs. Norwich

Hughton under pressure from minority of Norwich fans

I was talking to a Norwich fan on Twitter who wants Chris Hughton out. Although I disagreed, when you spend as much as the Canaries have done this summer there’s always an element of expectation. Norwich have started slowly, with their new players taking time to settle in, but the worrying thing for Norwich is that after this match, they play Chelsea, Arsenal and Man City in their next few games. A slightly disappointing result for Stoke last week, conceding two goals from set pieces to Arsenal, when I thought their aerial threat would be their trump card. They’ve only conceded two other goals so far though, so they can beat this slightly out of sorts Norwich team 2-1.

Sunderland vs. Liverpool

Will Kevin Ball re-organise Sunderland?

It’s a complete unknown how the Sunderland players will approach this game. They might rally around their new manager after the revolt against Di Canio, or the fact that Alan Ball is only there on a temporary basis could be a little bit unsettling, they might not be fighting as hard to impress in training as they would for a manager there for the long haul. It’s difficult to tell, especially with so many new players still trying to settle into the squad. Liverpool, having started the season on a real high, have now lost their last two matches. It might take Luis Suarez a few games to refind his old form, and the other factor is that the Reds fielded a very strong team for the North-West derby in the cup on Wednesday, they might be a little tired from that match. I’m going to sit on the fence and say a 1-1 draw.

Everton vs. Newcastle

Will Baines score another free-kick?

I didn’t expect Newcastle to lose at home to Hull, especially after back-to-back wins, and it’ll be interesting to see how they respond. With such an inconsistent start, it looks like it’ll be midtable finish for the Magpies this season. Everton remain the only unbeaten team in the Premier League, to be able to go to an intimidating place in Upton Park and score three goals, coming from behind shows that the players have a lot of self-belief under Roberto Martinez. I’d fancy Everton to win this 2-1.

The Championship

Huddersfield vs. Blackpool

Will James Vaughan net again?

Two of the early season eye-catchers go head-to-head Friday night, and it's difficult to split them. Two-thirds of Huddersfield's points this season have come from home games, they're currently averaging two points per game at the John Smith's stadium, or the McAlpine, as it should be called. I don't go along with criticisms that they're relying too much on James Vaughan, because it breeds confidence having a reliable goalscorer, and defensively the Terriers been sound - only QPR have conceded more goals. I've already predicted Blackpool to lose five times this season, and been proved wrong on every occassion, but I do feel that after taking one point from their last two, they're about to fall away from the chasing pack. 1-0.

Nottm Forest vs. Derby

Forest have missed Kelvin Wilson at the back

Gabriel This is Derby's second... derby, of the week, this time they face their old manager, Billy Davies. Derby have been extremely inconsistent this season.  Another home defeat against Reading last week, but they do have an ability to conjure up a brilliant away performance out of the blue, so predicting their games can be a nightmare. I've been looking through Nottingham Forest's results, defensively they've struggled over the last few weeks but the key reason in my eyes is the loss of Kelvin Wilson in defence. With him in the team, they conceded six goals in seven games, but without him, they've conceded six in three. He's a doubt for the weekend though, so I'll take a stab in the dark and say Derby will surprise again, and win 2-3.

Bolton vs. Yeovil

Will Neil Danns improve Bolton's midfield?

The scene is set very much for Bolton to get that first win and move off the bottom, but I've got a hunch Yeovil will excel in this kind of game. Things just aren't going to plan for Dougie Freedman at the moment, the signing of Neil Danns seems like a bit of a desperate measure, but he could provide Bolton with some more creativity in the middle. The pressure is entirely on Bolton for this game because of the squad they have and being bottom of the table, Yeovil aren't expecting to stay up at all. Although the Glovers have only picked up a point since the opening day of the season, I'm not going to write them off entirely, because three of their five defeats this season have come by one goal. They've ran the likes of Reading and QPR very close, they shown they can compete at this level, so I'll say they'll pick up a point. 1-1.

Bournemouth vs Blackburn

Tokelo Rantie set for Bournemouth debut

If you'd told me three years ago that Bournemouth would be above Blackburn in the Championship, I would have struggled to believe you. Due to such contrasting histories, the last time these clubs met in the league, Nelson Mandela had just been released from prison. Bournemouth are continuing to impress this season, particularly at Dean Court, having won three of their first four home games. Blackburn though, have failed to win thirteen of their last fourteen away games. Such a contrast in home and away form makes me think that Bournemouth's excellent start to the season will continue, big money signing Tokelo Rantie is set to make his home debut, who should further boost the Cherries' goal tally provided he picks up no more serious injuries. 2-1.

Burnley vs Charlton Athletic

Yann Kermorgant is back to full fitness

In pre-season, I thought these teams would finish in a similar sort of position - lower mid-table. But they've got off to very contrasting starts. Burnley have started very well under Sean Dyche, despite a small squad, but I worry that their run in the cup might hinder their performances in the league. Only four changes were made for the cup game against Nottingham Forest in midweek, whereas Charlton have had a whole week to prepare for this game. The Addicks will want to bounce back from the defeat against Millwall, Yann Kermorgant will be fully fit which is a plus. I think they'll put in a strong performance, and come away with a point. 1-1.

Ipswich vs. Brighton

Ipswich look solid under Mick McCarthy

A difficult one to call. Brighton have conceded just two goals in their last six games, and their ability to defend deep and hit teams on the counter attack has played a big part in that. The absence of top forward Leonardo Ulloa isn't ideal, but last week they scored three goals without him, coming from midfield, defence, and a set piece. If Brighton can win this, I would fancy them to make a push for the play-offs, because Ipswich have been reliable at home so far, winning three out of their four games at Portman Road. Brighton seem to be playing the better football, but they will do well in games against teams who are desperate for a win, and disorganized at the back. Under McCarthy, I think Ipswich will remain defensively solid, and won't give Brighton enough of a chance to break, thus making this game a 0-0 stalemate.

Leicester vs. Barnsley

How will Butland do on loan at Barnsley?

Barnsley have already conceded twenty two goals this season, and at this rate they'll be lucky to end it with their 'goals against' tally in double figures! They've brought in goalkeeper Jack Butland on a short-term loan as a measure to try and stop it, that might help them in the next few games, but when he goes back to Stoke I'm not sure how Barnsley will cope then. Their regular goalkeeper, Luke Steele, will be out of match practice and have his morale damaged knowing he's not their first choice. Thanks to an excellent start Leicester are now joint-second, and in terms of the other teams on the same points, I would fancy them over Burnley and Blackpool to maintain their form. Over October, Leicester have a very favourable run of fixtures, so they have a realistic chance of nailing down onto that 2nd spot. 3-0.

Millwall vs Leeds United

Will Scott McDonald score his second Millwall goal?

The best away fans in the country meet arguably the worst home ones. When Leeds came to St Andrews last season, they sold out their allocation and were in full voice for the whole game. On the other hand, Millwall fans are still against the management of Steve Lomas and the ex-West Ham player's position looked untenable less than a fortnight ago, but back-to-back victories have taken Millwall well out of the drop zone, and it'll be interesting to see what response he gets if the Lions pick up a third successive win. Leeds just aren't scoring enough goals at the moment, having drawn a blank in three of their last five games in all competitions. I can't see there being many goals in this one, Millwall to scrape it 1-0.

QPR vs Middlesbrough

Another solid defensive display from QPR?

Charlotte Green is taking over from James Alexander Gordon announcing the final scores on BBC Radio 5 Live, and if the first few weeks are anything to go by, the most common score she'll be announcing is: "Queens Park Rangers 1 (Opposition) 0". It seems remarkable to think that although QPR are top of the table, they've also scored the lowest number of goals in the top half, which is testament to their defence. Middlesbrough are starting to score goals, having bagged five in their last two games, although they're yet to win since the second match of the season, and I can't see that changing. QPR are always winning 1-0 at the moment, so it's the wise prediction to go with that again.

Reading vs. Birmingham

Sharp rejoins Nigel Adkins at Reading

Bringing in Billy Sharp in on loan is a very good move for Nigel Adkins, who will be re-united with the man he worked closely with at Scunthorpe and Southampton. Sharp is a natural goalscorer. He had an incredible record in League One, scoring fifty-three goals in eighty-two games at Scunthorpe, before having an excellent 2011-12 season in the Championship gaining promotion with Southampton, in spite of deep personal issues. He's a forward I've always admired, and I think he'll give Reading a much needed goal boost, they've kept three clean sheets in their last four games which suggests that a reliable striker is the missing ingredient in their play-off push. Sharp could be that man. Birmingham come into the game off the back of two excellent results against Wednesday and Swansea, Jesse Lingard will pose a big threat to Reading's chances of keeping a clean sheet, whilst Nikola Zigic returning to the squad should give the players a lift. But Reading might want the win a little bit more to try and put pressure on the teams at the top, whereas the Birmingham players might be slightly tired from giving their all against Swansea on Wednesday. The Royals to edge this 2-1.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Doncaster Rovers

Things looking ominous for Dave Jones' side

Wednesday got a terrible result at Birmingham last week. It's strange to think that although them and Bolton are the only teams yet to win a game, the Owls have actually scored in every one of their matches. Federico Macheda got off to the perfect start to his time at Doncaster, netting a brace, in what must be accepted as a good result for Paul Dickov's side, despite Nottingham Forest's late equalizer. Wednesday's defence hasn't done too well recently, conceding four goals at Birmingham was a disaster, but they also gave away two at home to Millwall who hadn't scored at that point, and surrendered a lead against 10-man Yeovil. Macheda will inject some confidence into Doncaster's attacks, so I'll go with my instinct and say they can kick Wednesday when they're down, and win 1-2.

Watford vs Wigan

Watford can't stop scoring

Grant Holt will miss out on this match which is a big loss for Wigan. His height would have caused problems, and the Latics only have Marc Antoine-Fortune as backup - and he's yet to score this season. Not only that, but their top scorer Shaun Maloney is a doubt for this game, so it's difficult to see Wigan scoring. That's never the case for Watford, who are scoring goals like there's no tomorrow. They've bagged nineteen already this season, by far the most in the league, and almost two and a half times the number league leaders QPR have scored. The impressive thing for them is that goals are coming from all over the pitch, with McGugan and Farouani chipping in with four from midfield, and Angella contributing from the back. Every time Wigan have won a game in the league, they've lost the following match, they beat Ipswich last week, so on that logic this has to be a comfortable win for the Hornets. 2-0.

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Five

Welcome all, to a weekly feature in which I predict this weekend's matches, in the Premier League and the Championship. Here goes...

Premier League

Norwich vs. Aston Villa

Will Lambert win on return to Norwich?

Both teams come into the game having only managed one shot on target in their last match, which makes me think this will be a low-scoring contest. Norwich put in a slightly disappointing performance at Spurs last week, only having 32% possession. Chris Hughton cited the quality in the Spurs team as a factor in their win and took the ‘not our day’ line, but I feel the money Norwich have spent this summer, the performance could have been better. Villa lost at home to Newcastle, and all of a sudden that opening day win at Arsenal seems like a long time ago. With a key defender in Jores Okore now out for nine months, I get a sense that they’ll be very reliant on Christian Benteke once again, and it’s up to Norwich to keep him quiet. 1-0.

Liverpool vs. Southampton

Can Sturridge make it 5 goals from 5?

Liverpool drew at Swansea last time out, but overall they’ve made an excellent start to their quest for a Champions League place – it’s far too early to talk about them as title contenders. Southampton have amassed a below-par two points from three games against Sunderland, Norwich and West Ham, where they should have been expecting to pick up five or six with the squad they have. Liverpool to remain top of the table on Saturday with a win, and place a little bit more importance on Southampton’s game against Crystal Palace next week. 2-0.

Newcastle vs. Hull

Ben Arfa - a match-winner

After Newcastle’s no-show defeat against Man City on the opening day, and a lacklustre draw with West Ham, I didn’t expect them to pick up back-to-back wins. But that’s exactly what they’ve done and now they will reach an average of two points per game, if they beat a Hull side who have made a steady start to life in the Premier League. So far they don’t look like they’ll concede many goals this season, but the main issue is whether they can find a goalscorer in their ranks, Danny Graham is yet to score for them and missed a number of good chances against Cardiff. It might be difficult to build his confidence in front of goal. On that basis, I’d have to fancy Newcastle to keep a clean sheet, because they’ve only conceded one goal since the opening day, so they’ll get a 1-0 win.

West Brom vs. Sunderland

Who will win early battle at the bottom?

An early bottom-of-the-table clash, with the added spice of Stephane Sessegnon having his work permit granted in time to play against his old club. Sunderland lost at home to Arsenal, the fact that they lost 3-1 with just 32% possession and two shots on target suggests they were beaten comfortably, but there were a number of worrying moments for Arsenal. After Sunderland equalized, they were on the front foot and looked like scoring, even at 2-1 they had a disallowed goal. The problem is, things just don’t seem to be falling Sunderland’s way at the moment, whereas West Brom battled for a good point at Fulham, and their squad is freshened up with Sessegnon now added. With home advantage I’ll go with West Brom to win 2-1, but neither side could afford to settle for a draw.

West Ham vs. Everton

Carroll injured - West Ham to struggle for goals?

This might be West Ham and Everton’s third goalless draw of the season, both teams would be content with a point. It’ll be key for West Ham to avoid getting into a series of defeats at this stage, so the pressure on Mladen Petric to replace Andy Carroll can be temporarily reduced. On the other hand, it’s key for Everton to make sure they maintain some of the momentum from beating Chelsea last week, which would dissipate if they lost this match. Both teams are struggling for a reliable goalscorer at the moment. Lukaku is a good loan signing for Everton, but he’ll be under a lot of pressure for someone as young as 19, he’ll be expected to score goals which wasn’t necessarily the case at West Brom. This goes down as a 0-0 draw in my book.

Chelsea vs. Fulham

Does Juan Mata, Mata Juan bit to Mourinho?

I was shocked that Chelsea lost 2-1 at home to Basel on Wednesday, I didn’t see it coming at all. Chelsea fans seem to be concerned about the omission of Juan Mata from the team, and I feel the problem Chelsea are having, is that the squad is almost too big and lacks structure. They’ve signed players willy-nilly this summer, Abramovich had a lot to do with the signing of Willian. I predicted with Mourinho back, he’d soften his grip of the club’s transfer policy, but it seems I was wrong. Fulham with their experience, will provide an unexpectedly difficult test, and I might stick my neck out and say they’ll grab a point. They can capitalise on the potentially shell-shocked atmosphere at Stamford Bridge with a moment of quality from Taarabt or Berbatov, and grab a shock 1-1.

Arsenal vs. Stoke

Giroud - improved season ahead?

Olivier Giroud is in fine form for Arsenal, having already scored five goals from five games. After what was a bit of a transitional season for the Frenchman last year, he’s already scored a third of the number of goals he scored last season, in an eighth of the number of games. With Mesut Ozil in behind him this season, I’d back him to reach the 20-mark. Stoke have started the season well, but Arsenal are in my opinion the best passers in the league, and with the pitch at the Emirates so wide, I think they’ll create a lot of shooting opportunities. Erik Pieters is a left-back who likes to move forward, so I can see Theo Walcott having a field day on the right, Arsenal to win 3-0.

Crystal Palace vs. Swansea

Can 'Olly's boys climb out bottom three with a win?

With Norwich and Villa playing each other, Palace will take themselves out of the drop zone with a win, and Swansea might fancy their chances against last season’s play-off victors, so I can see a game with goals. Swansea have had to cope with a European trip to Valencia this week, so they’ve only had a day to prepare for the match, seeing as they will have been travelling and resting on the Friday. Crystal Palace made a decent account of themselves at Old Trafford last week, with the first goal conceded being a wrongly-awarded penalty, and so far they’ve at least looked competent in the Premier League. I think it’ll be an entertaining draw here. 2-2.

Cardiff vs. Tottenham

A tough trip awaits Spurs

Most people seem to have this down as a routine win for Spurs, but I think Cardiff might get a point. The atmosphere their fans created against Man City played a big part in the goals they scored, and they also managed to keep at bay a top ten team like Everton on their own turf. If they can send three quality teams away from the Welsh capital without a win, that will do their confidence a lot of good. Spurs were playing at home in Europe, and at the time of writing, are expected to have a comfortable time against Tromso, but it’ll still be an adjustment to go from resting from the match on Friday, to playing in a very competitive game at Cardiff. It’s a 1-1 draw for me.

Man City vs. Man Utd

Who will run out victors in Manchester Derby?

A massive game for both clubs, and a win for either team would make either manager a lot more popular with their new clubs. Manchester City will be boosted by the return of Vincent Kompany to central defence, having had an eventually comfortable evening in the Czech Republic on Tuesday. United got their Champions League campaign off to a good start, beating Leverkusen 4-2, but in all honesty I can’t see the midweek games having too much of an impact. Both teams will have had five days to get ready for the match, and the players should be at their physical peak. The key battle will be between Yaya Toure and Fernandinho against Fellaini and Carrick in the centre of the park, which will be an intriguing contest. I don’t tend to be bold when it comes to predictions for the big games, I’ll sit on the fence and say a 1-1 draw.

The Championship

Charlton vs. Millwall

Lomas - changing opinions?

I would find it quite funny if Millwall won this game, because those Millwall fans who were protesting against Steve Lomas just five days ago would all of a sudden have to reassess him. I still think he's got a lot of work to do, though. One win doesn't change people's opinions overnight, and the key thing for this game is that his side pick up a result. The match against Blackpool won't mean much if they then lose this South London derby, so I can see a strong defensive display from the Lions. Charlton have only managed four shots on target in their previous two games, and striker Yann Kermorgant is only just returning from injury. Millwall to grab a 0-1 win, which would mean their fans will need to think twice before chanting 'Lomas Out' again.

Barnsley vs. Watford

Flitcroft's side could go bottom with defeat

Watford haven't quite hit the heights of last season, only scraping a victory over Doncaster on Tuesday, with what sounded like a dodgy penalty in the closing stages. Their away form has been a little disappointing so far, taking just four points from a possible nine on the road, and it was their counter-attacking strength when playing away that made them a force in the promotion race last season. This is as good an opportunity as ever for them to put that right, though, because their passing quality is excellent and because Barnsley's defence presses quite high up, so they'll be vulnerable to Watford's through balls. With the Tykes second-bottom, the fixture list isn't smiling at the hosts, as they have to play Leicester, Reading and QPR in their next few games, so this isn't the sort of game they can afford to lose, and 'take confidence from the performance'. It's vital they pick up a result, and I could see Watford taking advantage of their desperation, to come away with a 1-3 win.

Birmingham vs. Sheff Wed

Will Lingard impress on Birmingham debut?

Birmingham have conceded the first goal in all but one of their opening games, and Sheffield Wednesday have scored the first in each of their last four, although the Owls are yet to pick up their first win of the season. With both teams perching precariously outside the relegation zone on goal difference, the losers of this game are likely to drop under the red line on Saturday night, so I’m seeing a low-scoring draw. The loan signing of winger Jesse Lingard, highly rated by some of the Manchester United fans, should help Birmingham’s goal scoring efforts in the next few weeks. 1-1.

Blackburn vs. Huddersfield

Rhodes to score against old club?

If there were odds of 0/1 for Jordan Rhodes to score on Saturday, I'd probably still bet on it. Prolific goal poachers like Rhodes, who base their game mainly on being able to put the ball in the back of the net, seem to have a certain arrogance in their mentality. An inward belief that they're the best player on the pitch, which means they tend to thrive on high-pressure situations. It doesn't come much bigger than facing your old teammates, so I would bank on Rhodes grabbing a goal to add to his tally of six goals from his last four games. Talking of goalscorers, let's not forget about James Vaughan, who's exceptional start to the season continued on Tuesday night with the important opening goal against Charlton. In what I expect will be a battle of the poachers, I would back Jordan Rhodes- err.. I mean Blackburn, to come out on top. 2-1.

Blackpool vs. Leicester

Victors of Bloomfield Road go 2nd

A first defeat of the season for Blackpool came on Tuesday night, in the unexpected form of Millwall. I've said since the beginning that once the Tangerines lose a game, it's going to be difficult for them to remain amongst the promotion-chasing pack with teams like Forest, Watford, and Saturday's opponents Leicester, sniffing around. The Foxes bounced back from their defeat at Charlton very well with back-to-back home wins, and after this game, Autumn offers them a favourable set of fixtures, with Barnsley, Yeovil and Doncaster coming up in the next two weeks. I'll go with a Leicester win, and I think at this point Blackpool's early promotion hopes may start to fade away. 1-2.

Brighton vs. Bolton

Can Freedman's side get first win at the AMEX?

Bolton continue to sit bottom of the table, having taken just a point from two home games against midtable sides in Leeds and Derby. Looking at Dougie Freedman's post match comments after the draw with Derby, he signified his determination to 'put it right', but I felt his words had a twinge of desperation. When results aren't going your way, the one thing you want is your manager to remain calm. A trip to the south coast isn't exactly the perfect remedy either. Brighton might not have scored in their last two games, but they've only conceded one goal in their last five, and previously held two of the promotion clubs on their own turf. Although, the loss of Leonardo Ulloa will weaken their attack slightly. If as I predict, Brighton win this 1-0, next week at home to Yeovil is an absolute must-win in terms of Freedman's job safety as Bolton Wanderers manager.

Derby vs. Reading

Not-so Pride Park

Remarkably, Derby have only taken one of their eleven points on home soil. They have taken the second-lowest percentage of their points from home matches in the Championship, despite relying largely on home form last season. The visiting Royals might well take advantage of that, because they're looking quite solid at the moment, having taken seven points from their last three games, and keeping a clean sheet in all of them. Nigel Adkins seems to have made the team more solid at the back, and when teams deny Derby space at Pride Park, their forwards start to drop deeper and find it difficult to work openings. Reading might pinch a handy 1-2 away win in their quest for promotion.

Doncaster vs. Nottm Forest

Will Macheda loan move boost Doncaster?

Federico Macheda has only played thirty minutes for Doncaster, but he's already spoken of his hopes to extent the one month loan. I think the move will benefit all parties; Macheda hasn't scored a career goal since December 2011 and needs regular game time, Doncaster have only averaged a goal per match so far, they could do with another forward, and if Macheda starts scoring goals, United will make more money from him - I don't think he has the potential to make it in a Devils shirt ultimately. With Doncaster not having won since gameweek two, Nottingham Forest will go to the Keepmoat expecting a win, motivated by the possibility of breaking into the top two should results go their way. But their defence at the moment isn't looking like quite the immovable object it was in the first few weeks, Forest have conceded six goals in their last three games. They might be a little frustrated at having dropped points at home to Middlesbrough on Tuesday, so Doncaster could take a point. 1-1.

Leeds vs. Burnley

In-form Danny Ings

This should be a really interesting game. I talked about Rhodes and Vaughan earlier as goalscorers who do well under pressure, and you can definitely put Danny Ings in that category. So far he's dealt with the burden of filling Charlie Austin's boots perfectly, having already scored seven goals, including two clinical finishes against Birmingham on Tuesday night. Leeds could really do with someone like Ings in their push for the play-offs, because from their last three games they only got 23% of their shots on target, scoring just the one goal. They have players in the team who can create chances, but six goals from seven games so far is a goal tally that Brian McDermott will look to improve. A bit like Derby, Leeds haven't started too well at home this season, despite having a really good record at Elland Road in their last campaign. Burnley will go into this game with the more momentum after their 3-0 win on Tuesday, and I reckon they can please their fans with another win, and a fourth clean sheet of the season. 0-1.

Middlesbrough vs. Bournemouth

Key Man - Albert Adomah

The main area Bournemouth have struggled in these first few weeks, has been in aerial battles. According to Who Scored?, they've only won 39% of their headed duels, whilst Middlesbrough have won 61%, so you would expect Middlesbrough to dominate in the air. The other thing is Bournemouth play quite a conservative game when it comes to tackling, and Borough like to operate with a 4-5-1 formation, therefore I think they'll make the extra man in the centre count. They could see some joy down the right side with the pace of Albert Adomah, who has already contributed to a third of Middlesbrough's goalscoring successes this season. Bournemouth rely on fullback Charlie Daniels to get forward and provide width, so Middlesbrough may see some space to exploit down their favourite right side. I'll go with a 2-1 home win.

Yeovil vs. QPR

Tough task for Johnson's side

A 'QPR win to nil' is the sensible bet for this one. A Yeovil team who have scored three goals from seven games have the unenviable task of playing a QPR side who have kept five consecutive clean sheets. I'm beginning to quieten down on my pre-season tip of QPR to struggle this season. Although I'm a loather of Harry Redknapp, I know deep down that after such a strong start, they've probably got the experience to cement their place at the top as the season goes on. Obviously anything can happen in one game, but I can't see Yeovil getting anything. As much as anything else, they'll be hoping that the teams just above them playing each other, Birmingham and Wedneday, Charlton and Millwall, share the points so that the relegation battle stays compact at this early stage. 0-2.

Wigan vs. Ipswich

Will Wigan's experienced players cope with fixture congestion?

It'll be a test of Owen Coyle's managerial abilities how he manages to rotate his squad over what will become a very congested fixture pile-up. Playing in the Europa League on Thursday nights is always going to be difficult, because once you've spent Friday travelling and recovering, you've just got Saturday to prepare for the match on the Sunday. The key for Wigan will be to keep themselves in and around the play-off places until Christmas, and in the second half of the season they'll be able to focus entirely on the league if they're out of the cup. This will be a difficult game for the Latics, because Ipswich are currently celebrating back-to-back wins, and as always a Mick McCarthy side isn't going to give their opponents much space in the final third. A tight 1-1 draw, which Ipswich would be slightly happier with.