Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Twelve

My predictions for this weekend's matches in the Premier League and Championship...

Premier League

Everton vs. Liverpool

Cheeky celebration from Suarez

The first Merseyside Derby of the season. Both former-Swansea managers, Roberto Martinez and Brendan Rodgers, will be looking for a first win against their new arch rivals. A big game in terms of local pride, but it will also provide an intriguing test of both sides’ European credentials this season.  Everton have kept three straight clean sheets and are looking very difficult to break down, particularly with Gareth Barry sitting in front of the defence - his ability to recycle possession seems to ease the pressure on the back line. On the other hand, Liverpool have scored sixteen goals in their last six games, thanks largely to a certain Uruguayan. It was Suarez who made the headlines in this fixture last season. He celebrated a goal by taking a Klinsmann-esque dive in front of then Everton manager David Moyes, who had made (rather valid) claims that he goes down too easily. Love him or loathe him, nobody can deny that Luis Suarez is a world-class footballer. He might just prove it again, by providing a moment of magic in what could be a tight, tense game at Goodison Park. 0-1.

Arsenal vs. Southampton

Wojciech told what his new salary is

This week, goalkeeper Wojciech Szczecsny has signed a new contract with Arsenal, which must go down as good news for the club. His shot stopping has developed over the last year or so, and the fact that Arsenal had the second best defensive record in the league last season is a clear sign of improvement from him. He may be tested on Saturday though, because Southampton put four past Hull before the international break, and they play at a very high tempo, which could worry the gangling Per Mertesacker. It seems bizarre to think that we are in late November, but a recently promoted club like Southampton could go top of the league with a win! After the defeat at Old Trafford, it is difficult to tell whether Arsenal have the capability to win the title, but they might edge out a promising Southampton team. 2-1.

Fulham vs. Swansea

Bony finding form

Fulham put in a terrible performance in the 4-0 defeat to Liverpool. Yes, they were playing against someone with the quality of Suarez, but they seemed to stand like statues for the goals. A fourth successive defeat in all forms will not help the mood in the camp, and many will fear for them defensively playing against a team with Swansea’s fluidity and movement. The Swans are the highest scoring team in the bottom half of the table, and big money signing Wilfried Bony is now beginning to find some form, having netted three times in his last two games. Fulham have an aging defence and I fancy Swansea to play through them, to put Martin Jol’s position as manager under yet more scrutiny. 1-3.

Hull vs. Crystal Palace

"We're looking for a manager. Our position in the table? I'll get back to you."

It looks likely that Tony Pulis will take on the Crystal Palace job. Reportedly he is in advanced talks, and in this case you can understand why the Palace board are keen to take their time over the appointment. Their relegation looks almost inevitable, but it is important they bring in the right man to get them out of the Championship – Pulis’s experience doing so with Stoke could be useful. Palace have failed to score in six of their last eight matches though, and cannot seem to find the net at the moment. Their chances of doing so on Saturday are not particularly high, seeing as Hull City have kept three consecutive clean sheets at home, and Steve Bruce is doing an excellent job of stabilizing them in midtable. The last time there was more than two goals scored in a game at the KC Stadium was March 16th, which suggests this may not be the most memorable one, but it is clear which team has adjusted best to life in the Premier League. 1-0.

Newcastle vs. Norwich

A solid face of rock - Krul

Norwich’s 3-1 win over West Ham last time out could prove pivotal. At half time, West Ham were 1-0 up and bossing the game, putting Norwich right in the thick of the relegation dogfight, following a humiliating defeat at Man City the week before. With the pressure on, to score three goals against West Ham, who can be tough to break down at times, says a lot for the team spirit and Chris Hughton deserves credit. They face a Newcastle side who have bounced back from that derby defeat to Sunderland, by taking maximum points from Chelsea and Tottenham. Tim Krul put in an astonishing performance at Spurs, and if he can maintain that when up against a lower team, Newcastle should pick up a third consecutive clean sheet.  Back-to-back wins against two of the top teams in the league will fill the Magpies with confidence, so they have to be expected to win this and move into the top half. 2-0.

Stoke vs. Sunderland

Important win for Sunderland

In some ways the international break came at the wrong time for Sunderland. Although you don’t want to go into it after a defeat, it is not ideal for it to come right after a vital, morale boosting win, because it can drain out some of the momentum. Either way, that result is one that nobody expected, and it does give Sunderland hope of staying up. Stoke snatched a point in a thrilling 3-3 draw with Swansea last time out, and that result keeps them above the drop zone for now. What will worry new managers Mark Hughes and Gus Poyet, is that neither side has a reliable goalscorer, so there might not be anything to separate the two teams. 1-1.

West Ham vs. Chelsea

"Please, just give us a pen ref!"

Chelsea need to get back to winning ways. After a disappointing performance at Newcastle, and effectively cheating their way to a last minute draw with West Brom, it is important they take three points against London rivals West Ham. The hosts lost 3-1 at Norwich before the break, although only two teams outside the top five have conceded less goals than the Hammers, who have kept a clean sheet more often than not this season. West Ham will certainly make themselves difficult to break down, and it could be a test of Chelsea’s exotic attacking players such as Hazard and Mata, whether their quality can shine through. 0-2.

Man City vs. Tottenham

Should Defoe get more games?

A clash of this season’s underachievers. Manchester City have been a completely different team when playing at home, to when playing away. They have won all five of their home games convincingly, yet they have lost four out of six on the road. Manuel Pellegrini must be wondering why the team cannot convert strong performances at home, into their away form – it is difficult to understand. Injuries over the past few weeks to key players such as Vincent Kompany, David Silva and Fernandinho have perhaps had an impact, but a vast improvement on away form is crucial to City’s title chances. Tottenham have been rather uninspiring so far as well. Only the bottom two clubs have scored less goals than Spurs this season, despite so much money being spent this summer on attacking players. They created a lot of chances in the 1-0 home defeat to Newcastle, but Roberto Soldado has been very disappointing, having only scored from open play once. Now may be the time for Villas-Boas to give Jermain Defoe a run in the team to enhance competition. Man City to win this and continue their 100% record at home, it is away where they must pick up. 2-1.

Cardiff vs. Man Utd

Carrick a loss for United

This is a potentially difficult trip for Manchester United. Cardiff fans always create a boisterous atmosphere in their backyard and they will be psyched up for the visit of the champions, making it difficult conditions for Moyes’ side. United will be without a number of key players. Most notably Michael Carrick whose composure on the ball would be useful in this type of match, Phil Jones picked up an injury with England, while Vidic, Rafael and Robin van Persie are all fitness doubts. Cardiff have only scored one goal in their last three matches though, that one coming from a set piece, and with Peter Odemwingie as the loan striker they are not posing much of an attacking threat. United have started to discover some momentum under Moyes and if they can keep Cardiff at bay, they will grind out a win which could take them into the top four for the first time. 0-1.

West Brom vs. Aston Villa

Baggies yet to extend Clarke deal

A game between two Birmingham clubs who are slap-bang in the middle of the table, have picked up four points each from their previous two matches - both look to be completely safe this season. West Brom are close to tying down the talented Saido Berahino to a new long-term contract which is a plus, although more concerning for Baggies fans will be the contract of manager Steve Clarke. He has done an excellent job since taking over from Roy Hodgson, and for West Brom to be on course for a second successive finish in the top half speaks volumes. Having worked on a relatively low budget as well, Clarke is arguably one of the most underrated managers in the top flight, so chairman Jeremy Peace needs to sort out a deal quickly. Two late goals saw Aston Villa beat Cardiff before the international break, one of which a sublime free-kick from Leandro Bacuna, who is looking an excellent signing from Paul Lambert. A comfortable season in store for both clubs. 1-1.

The Championship

Doncaster vs. Yeovil

Yeovil loan Taylor

Doncaster fans might be concerned about their position in the relegation battle. They did keep a clean sheet last time out at Barnsley, but that was because their opponents missed a penalty, and Doncaster did not hit the target against the Championship’s weakest defence. With Barnsley and Sheffield Wednesday having winnable games this weekend, Doncaster must beat bottom of the table Yeovil Town on Friday night. The Glovers failed to score for the eighth time when they played Wigan, and they might start to become more frail at the back, with yet another change in the goalkeeping department. They brought in Reading’s reserve keeper Stuart Taylor, on a one month loan, who will be the fifth goalkeeper to play for them this season. So many different keepers coming in at different times is bound to unsettle the defence, and stop the keeper and back four from developing an understanding. Doncaster will take advantage. 2-0.

Sheff Wed vs. Huddersfield

Vaughan back from suspension

This could prove to be a massive game for Sheffield Wednesday, and manager Dave Jones. It is one which will be even bigger if, as predicted, Doncaster beat Yeovil on the Friday. The Owls’ 3-0 defeat at Derby suggests that their shock 5-2 victory over Reading was just one of those bizarre results, rather than a sign of future improvement. They put in a very poor performance at Pride Park, and Derby’s second and third goals came about from sloppy defending. If Jones had the full respect of the Wednesday players, after the morale-boosting result beforehand, they would surely not have lost so heavily? Following a bright start, Huddersfield have slipped down the table of late, losing 3-1 at home to Birmingham last time. They have lost four of their last five matches, although they do look forward to the return of top scorer James Vaughan, from his three match suspension. The Terriers have scored in each of their last eight games, which suggests the creativity is there in midfield. Vaughan’s power up front could give them the boost needed to take all three points, and apply the pressure on Dave Jones. 1-2.

Birmingham vs. Blackpool

Will late Ipswich defeat deter Blackpool?

This season, Birmingham have worked on a basis of ‘one good performance, one bad performance’, having lost every match that followed a victory. They won 3-1 at Huddersfield before the international break, which takes them to three points above the relegation zone, having been inside it before the match. Blackpool lost only their second match of the season against Ipswich, thanks to a last minute goal. They could experience a decline now. Teams like Watford, Reading and Wigan have arguably more proven quality, and that result will drain some of Blackpool’s momentum. Both teams play with one recognized striker, in Nikola Zigic and Ricardo Fuller, and the key to the match could be who provides the most support from midfield. 1-1.

Blackburn vs. Reading

Adkins' side can improve on the road

Blackburn have usually got a strong home form, having picked up thirteen of their nineteen points at Ewood Park, although there may be a cloud hanging over the South Lancashire club at the moment. While rivals Burnley are the surprise table-toppers, Blackburn look to be struggling financially, lost 3-0 at Brighton last time out, and there are fitness concerns over top striker Jordan Rhodes. They come up against a Reading side who bounced back from that humiliating defeat at Wednesday by taking a decent point against QPR, thanks to a fine showing from keeper Alex McCarthy. Away form has been Reading’s stumbling block this season, with just eight points from seven games on the road. If Nigel Adkins can put that right, the Royals look a good bet for at least a play-off place. 1-2.

Bournemouth vs. Derby

Rantie scored first goal for Bournemouth

More goals have been scored in matches involving either Bournemouth or Derby, than any of the other teams in the league - this probably means it will be a goalless draw! Derby are the highest-scoring team this season, while only Barnsley have conceded more than gung-ho Bournemouth. The Cherries attained a credible draw at league leaders Burnley, after Tokelo Rantie’s opener. Derby though, have taken the majority of their points away from home this season, and come into this game off the back of a 3-0 victory over Sheffield Wednesday. Bournemouth tend to press high up the pitch, which can leave gaps in behind, and so far Derby have looked good at exploiting the space by moving the ball quickly. This will be a fifth away win of the season for the Rams. 1-2.

Ipswich vs. Leicester

Cresswell suspended

Ipswich got a first away win at Blackpool last time out, but that result is unlikely to change much in the context of their season. Under Mick McCarthy, they play with a very rigid 4-4-2 and do not seem to have enough attacking flair in midfield. Leicester’s 2-0 home defeat to rivals Nottingham Forest will have left a bitter taste in the mouth before the international break. They need to get back to winning ways quickly, as they are level on points and goal difference with QPR in second place. The Foxes may have some joy down the right hand side, as Ipswich’s key left-back Aaron Cresswell is suspended after his second yellow card for abusive language in the match against Barnsley. Without an obvious second choice left-back, the inexperienced Tyrone Mings may be forced to fill in as he was against Blackpool, and he could struggle against a winger with the quality of Knockaert. Leicester to scrape an important win. 1-2.

Leeds vs. Middlesbrough

"Bit windy up here" - Karanka

This is Aitor Karanka’s first match in charge of Middlesbrough. His appointment might bring the excitement factor back to the Riverside, as the club did not seem to be progressing under Tony Mowbray. His first task is a tough game at Leeds, who won back-to-back matches before the international break to move one point off the play-off spots. In those games, all six goals came from Ross McCormack, who is now the Championship’s leading scorer. I still think Leeds will not finish higher than midtable though, because only a month ago they were well inside the bottom half, perhaps this has only been a peak in form. Plus, if anything happens to Ross McCormack – injury or transfer – then they are snookered for goals. Middlesbrough are an unknown quantity in terms of how Karanka’s arrival will impact the team, so the safe bet is a draw. 1-1.

Millwall vs. Barnsley

Just one away point for Barnsley

This is another important game in the battle to avoid the drop. Millwall’s problem this season has definitely been performing against the lower teams. They have taken ten points from seven games against sides in the top half of the table, yet only four points from eight against those in the bottom. The team clearly has difficulties playing when the onus is on them to win, and such will be the case against Barnsley, who sit inside the relegation zone. The Tykes have the worst away record in the Championship, having taken just one point from seven matches on the road. However, this does not tell the whole story, because David Flitcroft’s side are unbeaten in four games, and their survival hopes are very much in tact. Barnsley did the double over Millwall last season, and that makes them my tip for a surprise win at the weekend. 1-2.

Nottm Forest vs. Burnley

Forest won 2-0 at rivals Leicester

A match between two teams who are difficult to place, in terms of this season’s promotion battle. Forest got a surprise 2-0 win at rivals Leicester before the international break. Whether that is a sign of their promotion credentials or simply an odd result, remains to be seen. It was very much a ‘smash and grab’ job, because Leicester had most of the play. That said, a win over your rivals is always going to boost morale, so it will be interesting to see how Forest come into this game. When Burnley beat QPR 2-0 at the end of October, they looked unstoppable. However, they have slipped up against Millwall and Bournemouth in matches since, which makes it difficult for us punters to judge whether they will go the distance. A game which could easily go either way. 1-1.

QPR vs. Charlton

Charlton - an organized side

Two sides who rely on defensive nous, more than attacking potency, for their respective ambitions. In a difficult run of games, QPR have only won one of their last five, although only one of those games ended in a defeat. The Rs should return to club football with a win, and will be relatively comforted to know that their next four opponents are currently in the bottom half. As for Charlton, the unpredictable nature of the Championship dictates that when you’re a club who has kept four straight clean sheets, you concede four goals in your next match. The Addicks fell victim to the Ross McCormack massacre when they hosted Leeds, yet they are still the most defensively organized side in the bottom half of the table. A routine win for QPR is the most likely outcome. 2-0.

Watford vs. Bolton

Zola's side struggling for form

Watford are struggling for form at the moment, having taken just two points from their last four matches. Throw in the club’s financial penalty of £900K due to ex-board member Laurence Bassini’s actions, and things are not looking as rosy this season for Watford as many Hornets would have hoped. They are starting to struggle at home as well, having lost back-to-back matches at Vicarage Road for the first time since August 2011. Under Dougie Freedman Bolton look to be finally climbing the table now. They are unbeaten in seven matches and despite the continued absence of several key players, now including keeper Adam Bogdan, they are starting to show why they were among the pre-season favourites for promotion. If Bolton can win this, a play-off push will be in sight, but a draw is a bit more likely. 1-1.

Wigan vs. Brighton

Barnes needs to start firing

No side outside the play-off places have conceded less than Wigan and Brighton, which suggests this will be a low-scoring affair (cue the 4-3 thriller!). A third of Brighton’s overall goals tally this season came in their last two matches, when they put three past Doncaster and Blackburn. Ashley Barnes scored a brace in the Blackburn match, yet they were his first goals of the season from ten appearances, so he needs to discover his form very quickly. Wigan’s impressive defensive record continued with a clean sheet last time out, albeit at lowly Yeovil, but the Latics are still unbeaten at home. If they can grind out a win here, their game in hand will worry some of the teams in the play-off position. 1-0.