Wednesday 13 November 2013

Does Stability Equal Success?: Part One

62 of the 92 Football League clubs parted company with their manager last season. The life expectancy of a football manager in England is little over a year. With so much football on TV, the sport has become increasingly, if not entirely money orientated. It has attracted businessmen from all over the globe, who demand instant success, and it has created this climate of panic within boardrooms.

So are managers being sacked too quickly? Should clubs have patience with their manager? Does more stability bring more success? In a two-part study, I'm going to examine whether there in fact is a correlation between stability and success. I will examine the teams in the Championship, and included in part two, I have an exclusive e-mail interview with one of the longest serving managers in non-league football.

Please note that I will judge stability and success very subjectively, and simply rate out of ten in my humble opinion, the level of stability a club has had over the last few years. To justify my ratings, I will calculate the approximate transfer value of a club's default first XI.

Currently, more sackings happen in the Championship than any other English League. This is the place where most chairmen will smell the sweet aroma of Premier League TV money, and perhaps make more panic-sackings in hope of forcing a reaction from their team to put together a run and make a push for promotion. Let's take a look at the results.

Barnsley
First XI Value & General Investment
Approx. £1 million, most notable is the £300K acquisition of Chris O’Grady. Very much a ‘wheeling and dealing’ club, fifty-eight of Barnsley’s ninety-six transfers over the last decade have been free transfers. Partly due to attendances of little more than 10,000, not much money has been put into the squad.
Level of Stability
5 - The club has acted without a recognised board for some time, yet it’s been surprisingly dismissive of managers, as Simon Davey, Mark Robins, Keith Hill, have been shown the door in recent years. Although, with a chairman in Maurice Watkins now in place and new manager David Flitcroft doing well to keep the club up last season, perhaps a period of stability will ensue at Oakwell.
Success /10?
6 - For a club consistently running on one of the lowest budgets, it has done reasonably well to keep itself in the division, and remain the longest-serving Championship club.

Birmingham
First XI Value & General Investment
Nothing. Due to serious financial constraints, Blues have a squad made entirely of loans and freebies. It is unlikely that progress will be made until the ownership situation is resolved.
Level of Stability
2 – Every summer since relegation, there have been overhaul of twenty to thirty players, in an attempt to slash the wage bill. Last season Blues had the threat of nineteen players out of contract this summer, and nobody knows when the owners will leave the club.
Success /10?
5 – Lee Clark has done a decent job for the club in the circumstances, a twelfth place finish last season was probably the best fans could have hoped for. However, there is an argument for stability here, because each season when there’s been a change of the squad, Birmingham have got off to poor starts. New players have always taken time to settle.

Blackburn
First XI Value & General Investment
£18 million. The pricey Jordan Rhodes accounts for almost half this at £8 million, he paid off a large chunk of the transfer fee by scoring 30 goals last season. Expensive signings of Scott Dann and Leon Best when Blackburn were a Premier League club, make up the rest.
Level of Stability
1 – The India-based Venkys seem to know very little about football, and Blackburn fans will be keen to see the back of them. No fewer than seventy-two player changes to the squad have been made since Blackburn’s relegation, and the club have been through five different managers in this time, if you count Gary Bowyer’s first stint.
Success /10?
2 – Blackburn have one of the highest-valued squads in the division, yet slumped to 17th place last season, and only some good work from Gary Bowyer in April saved them from a potential relegation battle. When they were relegated from the Premier League, the fans were campaigning to get Steve Kean out, and that uncertainty had an impact on the players.

Blackpool
First XI Value & General Investment
£2.3 million. Very little money has been spent on Blackpool’s squad, which raises suspicions of the validity of the ‘Owen Oyston charity’, where reportedly a lot of the incoming money goes to. According to the 2007 Sunday Times Rich List, Owen and his son Karl, who owns Blackpool, had a net wealth of £105 million. And this was before Blackpool had a season in the Premier League. Where has the money gone?
Level of Stability
2 – Since November 2012, they have been through five managerial reigns, if you count both Steve Thompson’s spells in charge. They lost a number of key defenders this summer, with only Matt Gilks and Craig Cathcart surviving from the squad which nearly managed to stay up in the Premier League.
Success /10?
4 – Blackpool reached the play-off final once again in 2012, but 12-13 saw a season of turbulence. The five different managers came in, with varying tactical ideas, it led to very inconsistent results and a 15th place finish. However at the beginning of this season, Paul Ince had had seven solid months to work with the squad, and Blackpool did start the season surprisingly well.

Bolton Wanderers
First XI Value & General Investment
Approx. £18.5 million. Both £4 million signings of Zat Knight and more recently, David N’Gog, are the main assets in an expensive squad. Even since relegation to the Premier League, a significant £5.5 million has been invested, with no player leaving the club for a transfer fee.
Level of Stability
5 - In terms of managers, things haven’t been too bad, as they’ve only had the one manager change since relegation from the Premier League. However, in this time, there have been 60 changes to the playing staff. In addition, the club was in debts of up to £135 million last season, which may have impacted on player mindset.
Success /10
5 - When Dougie Freedman took over from the sacked Owen Coyle in November 2012, it took a long time for his new team to click under his management, and even a relegation battle looked like a possibility in February. But, an excellent run of 31 points from their last 14 games saw the Trotters narrowly miss out on a play-off place.

Bournemouth
First XI Value & General Investment
£3.75 million. More than half of the squad value is represented by South African striker Tokelo Rantie, who signed from Malmo FF. With Russian petrochemical businessman Maxim Demin involved, and sustained Championship football looking likely, the collective value of AFC Bournemouth’s squad is likely to rise in future.
Level of Stability
7 – Eddie Howe might have only been back at his beloved Bournemouth for a year, but already it seems as though he is there to stay. A young, improving manager who is loved by the fans and players.
Success /10?
10 - When he went back to Bournemouth in October last season, from Burnley in the division above, the Cherries were battling relegation. It was his arrival which sparked an instant run of form, 15 wins from 21 games, led Bournemouth towards promotion to the Championship. In the second tier, Bournemouth have shown no fear. They sit comfortably midtable with pressing, attacking football on show.

Brighton & Hove Albion
First XI Value & General Investment
£3.25 million, of which the £2 million signing of exotic goalscorer Leonardo Ulloa takes up most. Outside this, £1 million was spent on inside forward Will Buckley after the club’s promotion to the Championship.
Level of Stability
8 – Measuring stability before the controversial sacking of Gus Poyet, the Uruguayan was in charge at Brighton for an impressive four years.
Success /10?
9 – When Poyet took over, Brighton were struggling with relegation in League One. Just over year later, he guided them to the title, and then tenth and fourth place finishes in the Championship.

Burnley
First XI Value & General Investment
Approx. £3.5 million. Jason Shackell and Sam Vokes are by far the most expensive players in the squad, each costing £1 million.
Level of Stability
4 – Not ideal, they have been through three managers since their relegation from the Premier League in 2010. Although, Sean Dyche has now had nearly a year in charge at the club.
Success /10?
8 – Having had half a season to assess his squad, Dyche has seen his side start the 2013/14 season remarkably well, as Burnley currently sit in the promotion places.

Charlton Athletic
First XI Value & General Investment
Approx. £2.15 million. Seven players in Charlton's default starting line-up had been at the club since they were in League One, and so most were picked up on the cheap. At an estimated cost of £0.8 million, Simon Church is likely to be the most expensive player.
Level of Stability
8 - This is Chris Powell's third season in charge of Charlton, which is impressive in the current climate of manager sackings. Despite being a Crystal Palace player as a youngster, Powell is regarded as a legend among Addicks supporters.
Success /10?
9 – Promoted as champions from League One in his first full season, Chris Powell has stabilized Charlton as an established Championship club. Very good progress for the club.

Derby County
First XI Value & General Investment
£2.8 million. With Steve McLaren yet to have a transfer market at Derby, this is largely based on Nigel Clough’s time in charge under American chairman Andrew Appleby. A combination of Clough’s passion for youth and Appleby’s business-orientated approach has meant very little money was spent. Despite high gate receipts at Pride Park, many summers have resulted in a net profit, the £1 million signing of Richard Keogh in 2012 being the biggest buy.
Level of Stability
9 – When he took over in January 2009, Clough spoke of a ‘10 year plan’, indicating his time at Derby would be a long-term project. In reality, he was manager for four and a half years, but he did begin to build through the academy. He got rid of the high earners such as Kris Commons and Rob Hulse, very rarely bringing a player in on loan. He wanted to create stability.
Success /10?
6 – In Clough’s time in charge, Derby improved their league position in every season but one. Financially, the club’s position improved with a few million knocked off the wage bill while the land outside the ground was being refurbished, to help Derby deal with the Financial Fair Play regulations. However on a short-term scale, the club never threatened to reach the play-offs.

Doncaster Rovers
First XI Value & General Investment
Nothing. Every player who is currently in Doncaster’s most common starting eleven, is either a free transfer, signed on a pre-contract deal (possibly a nominal fee), on loan or a product of the youth system in James Husband’s case. During departing chairman John Ryan’s 15 years in charge, no more than £2.8 million was spent on transfer fees, due to the club’s lower league status for much of that time. Most of the £5 million received was re-invested in the squad, yet Ryan made Doncaster a financially sustained club.
Level of Stability
7 – Seven full-time managers in a fifteen year period under Ryan represents relative steadiness at the club. Long four and five year stints for Dave Penney and Sean O’Driscoll respectively. In previous years, Doncaster have tended to have players who have been at the club for a long time, most notably Brian Stock, James Coppinger and James O’Connor.
Success /10?
9 – In the mid-2000s, the club shot through the divisions. Having been promoted from the Conference in 2003 via the play-offs, in their first season they were the shock title winners of the fourth tier. After a move from Belle Vue to the Keepmoat Stadium, they were promoted to the Championship. Each of their promotions during this decade came under the long-term reigns of Dave Penney and Sean O’Driscoll.

Huddersfield Town
First XI Value & General Investment
£2.5 million. Almost a third of this is made up by the slightly overpriced signing of playmaker Adam Clayton last summer, who came at £0.8 million, funded by the £2 million sale of Anthony Pilkington to Norwich. Since the arrival of lifelong Terriers fan Dean Hoyle as chairman, Huddersfield have looked a financially well run club, spending a little more than they have sold in the transfer market.
Level of Stability
3 – With the club in League One yet having had a run of 49 games unbeaten, Lee Clark was sacked in February 2012, meaning Mark Robins is the club’s fourth manager in the space of under two years. Simon Grayson was the man who promoted Huddersfield to the Championship, yet he was sacked in January 2013 after a run of twelve games without a win and the Terriers in eighteenth. The controversial nature of both sackings suggests Hoyle has tendencies to hire and fire.
Success /10?
7 – In fairness, both sackings created a short-term reaction from the team. Immediately after Clark was sacked, Huddersfield took sixteen points from their next eight and were promoted via the play-offs. After Grayson’s sacking, they ended their winless run and stayed in the Championship with relative comfort.

Ipswich Town
First XI Value & General Investment
Nothing, barring a presumably small compensation fee to Tranmere for left-back Aaron Cresswell. In the past year, the Ipswich board have made clear their desire to invest heavily in the club’s academy. Ten members of their current squad came through the youth system, which suggests a time for transition. However, with the highest ticket prices in the Championship and little of the £8 million for Connor Wickham invested back in the squad, perhaps not all Ipswich fans will be too happy with this.
Level of Stability
6 – Since Marcus Evans took over in 2007, Mick McCarthy is their fourth permanent manager in six years. Evans has been relatively patient with his manager.
Success /10?
5 - Despite ambitions of promotion from the likes of Jim Magilton, Roy Keane and Paul Jewell, Ipswich have been the Championship’s classic mediocre, midtable team. Never finishing lower than fifteenth, yet never higher than eighth.

Leeds United
First XI Value & General Investment
Approx £4 million. The new foreign Leeds chairman, Salah Nooruddin, or ‘Mr Noodles’ as dubbed by some Leeds fans, has not been afraid to back Brian McDermott in his first summer. He has invested £2 million in the team in young players Scott Wootton and Luke Murphy. Under the controversial figure of Ken Bates beforehand however, not much was invested. A profit of £3.2 million in transfer fees was made in his time in control.
Level of Stability
3 – With Leeds tenth, Ken Bates sacked manager Simon Grayson after the 4-1 defeat to Birmingham in January 2012. Grayson was arguably the scapegoat, as it was Bates most Leeds fans were opposed to. In April 2013, Neil Warnock was sacked with the team sitting twelfth. Bates was relatively quick to get rid of a manager.
Success /10?
5 – Much like Derby and Ipswich. Over the past few years, Leeds have never really challenged for a play-off place, neither have they looked like going down. A mediocre side.

Leicester City
First XI Value & General Investment
£6 million, and that is taking out the £1.5 million purchase of Chris Wood, who has not been in the team in recent weeks. Summer 2011 was a notable one, Vichai Raksriaksorn’s first as chairman, when the team splashed out a lot of money on players and became pre-season favourites for promotion.
Level of Stability
2 – Between 2010 and 2011, Leicester had four different managers. Paulo Sousa and Sven Goran-Eriksson were sacked after nine and thirteen games respectively, while in his first spell, Nigel Pearson left due to a strained relationship with then chairman Milan Mandaric. The club lacked stability.
Success /10?
3 – Though much money has been invested into Leicester’s squad, particularly between 2010-2012, they failed to meet expectations. Notably, they achieved more as a newly-promoted club from League One with Pearson in charge and little investment in the 09-10 season, than in the years after that when money was poured in but the manager kept changing.

Middlesbrough
First XI Value & General Investment
£2.7 million. Considering Middlesbrough sold £29 million worth of players the season after their relegation, chairman Steve Gibson has not put much money into the squad. He seems to have been content to let the club drift into the Championship’s midtable, despite season ticket prices being amongst the highest in the league.
Level of Stability
7 – Gibson had been fairly patient with the manager. He stuck with Gareth Southgate despite relegation from the top flight, and Tony Mowbray was given three years in charge.
Success /10?
4 – It has been a minor decline for Middlesbrough. Every Championship season, apart from 2011-12, they have not come close to reaching a play-off place. Under Tony Mowbray, they were joining a cluster of teams who usually finish midtable.

This is the end of part one of my study. So far, it looks as though stability can have a factor in success. Although, many examples involve teams who have achieved in the lower leagues, rather than sides who are showing genuine promise of getting into the Premier League. Bournemouth, Brighton, Charlton, Ipswich and Doncaster have all gone from League One, and non-league in Doncaster’s case, to becoming an established Championship club through sticking by their manager. However, apart from Brighton who reached the play-offs last season, these teams are yet to threaten promotion.

On the other hand, there is teams like Leicester who have taken very much a scattergun approach in the past. They spent lump sums a couple of years ago and expected promotion, sacking managers who failed to produce instant results. There is also clubs such as Blackburn and Bolton, who despite squads with a few big assets, struggled in their first season in the Championship. In fact, Bolton only managed to put a run together last season when the new playing staff had had time to gel and Dougie Freedman had settled into the job taking over in October. Blackburn changed their manager numerous times, and their squad did not match their potential at all.

In part two, I will look at the remaining eight Championship clubs, with a graph using these results to analyse the link between stability and success. In addition, I will look at the setup of clubs who have achieved promotion in previous years, and I have an exclusive interview with one of non-league’s longest serving managers.

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