Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Eleven

My predictions for this weekend's Premier League and Championship matches.

Premier League

Aston Villa vs. Cardiff

Goalscoring Defender - Caulker

This has the makings of a goalless. At West Ham last week, Aston Villa kept their third consecutive away clean sheet, and the main reason they have not been able to do it at home so far has been because of the fixture list. Out of the first five visitors to Villa Park this season, only Newcastle were not in last season’s top seven. The main problem for the Villains is that they only seem to attack when they have either gone behind, or their opponents commit too many men forward. Having kept back-to-back clean sheets, Cardiff are unlikely to do the latter. Their win in the Premier League’s first ever Welsh derby last weekend puts them up to twelfth, it also means that they can approach this kind of game knowing a point would be a good result. The Bluebirds do not have an obvious tallisman, rather, they have a series of joint-top scorers, who have each got just two goals. As for Villa, they are lacking goals full stop, having drawn four consecutive blanks. A little worryingly for Lambert, Christian Benteke has not found the net since mid-September. 0-0.

Chelsea vs. West Brom

Poor Showing at St James's

A surprising slip-up for Chelsea at Newcastle last week, losing 2-0 with a very poor performance. The team had 61% possession, yet only two shots on target - they struggled to create openings. That game was the opposite of what we expect from Chelsea. Until now, they have played with a sense of urgency and looked to create chances quickly through their attacking talents. One can only write that off as a bad day for their forward magicians though, and Chelsea remain my prediction for the title. West Brom met expectations last week by disposing of Palace, a win started by a goal from the impressive Saido Berahino. The 20-year-old found space with some classy movement, and he finished with composure well beyond his years. In my opinion, he is the most underrated player of the season so far. You can expect to see West Brom to defending deep for this game. Holding midfielders Yacob and Mulumbu will try to get behind the ball to stop Chelsea playing, but the hosts have so much quality in the attacking third it should not be a problem. 2-0.

Crystal Palace vs. Everton

Job: Crystal Palace Manager - No Experience Required!

It has been confirmed that Keith Millen will take temporary charge of Crystal Palace for this match. Presumably, the strategy from the Palace board is to wait for a more favourable run of fixtures, before appointing someone on a full-time basis. Hull, Norwich, West Ham and Cardiff are the club’s following four games, and if a new manager starts off by winning a couple of those morale might improve. In reality, Palace do not have a developed enough squad to compete in the Premier League, regardless of the managerial arrangements. Everton played out a drab stalemate with Tottenham on Sunday. A game in which they did not show enough intent to try and win, only one shot on target, which will be disappointing from Martinez’s perspective. I can see a hardworking performance from Crystal Palace, and Romelu Lukaku is a fitness doubt for Everton, and it is these two factors which stop me from going for a landslide away win. 0-1.

Liverpool vs. Fulham

Jol Under Pressure

Liverpool are continuing to be exposed defensively, not having kept a clean sheet since the first of September. New signing Mamadou Sakho has looked at fault on a number of occasions, and perhaps some patience will be required while the team gets used to the three at the back system. Having said all of the above, I believe Liverpool will come to life against Fulham. The Cottagers might have only lost to high-flying Southampton and Manchester United since back-to-back wins, but it is very difficult for a manager to work when the fans start to get on his case. Under pressure with new owner Shahid Khan watching on, it might end up being a heavy defeat which acts as a catalyst for his sacking. It is always dangerous to say a team will win by four goals, but I remember this fixture being played around Christmas time last season and I blogged a prediction of 4-0 to Liverpool - it came true! That’s got to be worth another go.

Southampton vs. Hull

Season's Surprises - Saints & Hull

A clash of two teams who are performing better than many expected this season. As one of the initial favourites for relegation, Hull will be delighted to stand in the top half, while Southampton’s summer of spending has been a storming success. Saints manager Pochettino will not be concerned about them having been knocked out of the Capital One Cup. He made wholesale changes for the game at Sunderland, which indicates his priorities lie in maintaining his team’s league form. Jay Rodriguez has been picked for the England squad to face Chile and Germany after four goals this season, and at the age of 24, looks set to reach his peak as a striker. The only matches Hull have lost this season, have been away to four of last season’s top seven, and they even came away from each of those games with much credibility. Both teams have excelled due to solid foundations so a tight game is on the cards at St Marys. 1-0.

Norwich vs. West Ham

Norwich fans want Hughton out

This is a very big game for Chris Hughton as manager of Norwich. A lot of Canaries fans have wanted him out this season, and an abysmal defensive display against Manchester City will not have helped matters. It is bizarre that they have spent so much money on goalscorers this summer, yet they have the joint-worst chance conversion rate in the Premier League at 4.8%. West Ham are struggling for goals themselves, having drawn blanks against Swansea and Villa and failing to score in four of their five away games this season. The injury to Andy Carroll in August has given Sam Allardyce’s side genuine problems going forward, and now joint-top scorer Ricardo Vaz Te has dislocated his shoulder. Norwich are in need of a win from somewhere to boost morale, while West Ham are in need of a decent striker. 1-1.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

Encouraging win for Toon

A rare 12 o’clock Sunday kick-off will see Newcastle fans make an early morning trip down to London, to play a Tottenham team who are finding goals surprisingly hard to come by. One cannot help but wonder if Newcastle’s encouraging start continues, whether the Toon fans will start to mellow on Mike Ashley and Alan Pardew. The team is in the top half of the table, and after that 2-0 win over Chelsea last week, they look as though they could finish there. Tottenham, despite finding themselves in fourth at the moment, have been deeply unimpressive so far. Four of their ten matches have seen them beat a team in the bottom half 1-0. They have a solid defence, yet having spent over £100 million this summer, you would expect better performances. Sunday might be the day that Spurs begin to click in attack, a 2-0 victory.

Sunderland vs. Man City

Horrible Challenge - Cattermole

Last week’s defeat at Hull was a kick in the teeth for Sunderland, following the euphoria of their derby win. Goalkeeper Kieran Westwood has been injured, as one of their better players over the last few weeks, while Lee Cattermole’s tackle was simply reckless. If this was the 1970s, Cattermole would be one of the best midfielders in England who any Sunderland fan would love, yet his bully-boy mentality is not suited to the modern game. In any case, Sunderland are now six points adrift of safety. It is this sort of game that they will need to scrape a result from to build any confidence. But having scored twelve goals in their last two, I get a sense Manchester City are about to start developing some consistency, and put an end to their away blues. With a partnership of Aguero and Negredo now starting to blossom, a trip to Sunderland is the perfect opportunity. 0-3.

Man Utd vs. Arsenal

Learning Process for Moyes

Arsenal got a famous win at the Westfalenstadion, the home of Borussia Dortmund, on Wednesday but I still do not believe they will win the league. The squad lacks strength in depth areas such as centre-back and up front, while they don’t have the same quantity of attacking talent as City and Chelsea. Let’s not overreact to their five point lead, at what is an early stage. This match will be an interesting test of what David Moyes has learnt so far in the United hotseat. His more cautious, defensive Everton mentality has cost him at times so far, often he sets his side up to not concede, rather than play with the arrogant dynamism of the Ferguson days. With players like Ramsey, Ozil and Giroud in form for Arsenal going forward, it will require a certain amount of courage from United's new Scot to take an attacking approach. Although that would make for an exciting game, both teams could be prepared to accept a draw. Arsenal might, coming to Old Trafford after a hard-fought match away in Germany on Wednesday. On the other hand, if United lose this game, that will sap out a lot of the momentum they have built up over the last few weeks. 1-1.

Swansea vs. Stoke

"Try to aim for that white net over there."

Swansea are currently without a win in four games, after taking a point from their trip to Russia. In those four games, they have kept an average of 62% possession, but only managed four shots on target per game. Eventually, they may need to compromise some of their patience around the edge of the box for getting a shot away. It is difficult to be too critical though, because they are in fact the highest scoring team in the bottom half of the table - they just need to improve the service to Michu and Bony. If finishing is a minor concern for Swansea, then it is a major one for a Stoke team who have not won since August. The Potters are the lowest scoring team in the Premier League, and it is rather telling that their last goal came as a fluke kick from their keeper. Stoke do have a couple of quality attacking players in Assaidi and Arnautovic, as well as tall strikers in Crouch and Jones. The plan now should be to up the tempo, get it to their target man quickly and have midfielders making positive runs off the ball. This is the time Mark Hughes needs to deliver his promise of attacking football. 1-0.

The Championship

Reading vs. QPR

Experience in QPR defence

This is the fixture which confirmed both clubs’ inevitable relegation to the Championship last season, and Saturday will be the first time they have met since. After the drop, both teams have built strong defensive partnerships. Clint Hill and Richard Dunne, in their mid-thirties, still seem to have the legs for QPR. For the hosts, a considerably younger partnership of Alex Pearce and Sean Morrison have shown plenty of long-term promise, a 5-2 defeat at Wednesday last week being the anomaly. A heavy defeat can often give players a renewed sense of defensive responsibility and when playing a team at the top, they will be determined not to give anything away. QPR’s win over Derby last week, their first victory in four games, was an important one which keeps them only a point away from the promotion places. 0-0.

Barnsley vs. Doncaster

Looking Suspect - Turnbull

From a game where a 0-0 draw is on the cards, to a game where one is virtually impossible. Barnsley, who have conceded more than anyone else in the league, play host to a Doncaster side who have shipped eleven goals in their last three matches. This is potentially quite an important game in the relegation battle, because if the form book continues, these teams could be swapping places. Though their defensive record suggests Barnsley are struggling to compete, David Flitcroft’s side are in fact unbeaten in three games. By contrast, Doncaster’s defence is falling apart at the moment, and their goalkeeper Ross Turnbull is looking vulnerable to long-range strikes. The Rovers are in need of a good result soon, otherwise they are getting sucked into the relegation battle. Awful defending will be the order of the day. 4-2.

Blackpool vs. Ipswich

Blackpool continue to impress

After a late win at play-off rivals Nottingham Forest last week, Blackpool are continuing to throw their weight around in the upper reaches of the Championship. They, along with a cluster of teams at the top are still unbeaten at home, and the whole team has jelled very quickly considering such a high turnover of players this summer. The good news for Ipswich is that the Ireland job is taken, Mick McCarthy is staying. The bad news is their current form. The Tractor Boys have not won since September, despite having played three of the bottom five in that time. The Blackpool team have admirably gone about their business in spite of Paul Ince’s stadium ban, and this should be a comfortable home win. 2-0.

Bolton vs. Millwall

"Oi groundsman, the goal needs to be much bigger than that."

Some say that Bolton are in good form, being unbeaten in six games after a convincing performance at Bournemouth. The other factors are though, that they have only played one team outside the bottom half in those games, and four of them were draws. The one thing stopping Bolton from getting into a midtable position has been their dreadful home form thus far - they remain the only side yet to record a win on their own turf. Many times over the past few weeks people have expected them to win playing in front of their own fans, but they do not seem to have coped with the pressure well, having only scored six goals at the Reebok. Despite having gone a few games without a win, Millwall have shown some promise in the last few weeks, holding three of the current top five to a draw. The team can take confidence from those results. 1-1.

Brighton vs. Blackburn

Rhodes may be forced to leave

Two teams who could be moving in opposite directions, in terms of this season’s play-off picture. A late rally from Brighton last week helped them record a first win in six at Doncaster, Jake Forster-Caskey scoring a delightful long-range effort. The teenage midfielder has had a quiet season so far, but he showed a glimmer of why he had been selected for England at youth level in the last few years. The Blackburn board published their annual financial accounts after the match on Saturday, and it made grim reading, with a pre-tax loss of £36.5 million recorded for 2013. The upshot of this on the playing side, is that Jordan Rhodes may have to be sold in January. With Rhodes being by far Rovers’ top scorer, this will create a lot of uncertainty in the dressing room and Rhodes himself might struggle for form. Brighton are only five points away from the play-offs now, they could start to put a run together. 2-0.

Burnley vs. Bournemouth

Howe returns to Turf Moor

Burnley have only dropped four points at home so far, and are unlikely to drop any more when they play Bournemouth. It is difficult to comment on Burnley without paying tribute to the job Sean Dyche has done, with one of the lowest budgets in the division, and he has been rightly rewarded with a second consecutive Manager of the Month award. The form book does not give Eddie Howe much chance of a happy return to Turf Moor, as his side have won just one game in their last six, and taken only five points from a possible twenty one on the road this season. A slight concern will be that top scorer Lewis Grabban has failed to score in his last three, and £2 million man Tokelo Rantie is yet to find the net. For a team with the second worst defensive record in the Championship, this does not bode well going into five consecutive games against top half opponents. 2-0.

Charlton vs. Leeds

McCormack in-form

Charlton have now kept four straight clean sheets and seem to be developing into one of the most organised teams in the league, which is a credit to the way Chris Powell has turned results around. Much like Bolton, Charlton’s problem has been performing in front the more expectant home fans - their only win at the Valley came back in August. Comfortable home wins for Leeds in the past few weeks have put them just three points away from the play-off places, but those victories came against two of the current bottom three. Top scorer Ross McCormack scored both goals against Yeovil, he has contributed to almost half Leeds’ overall tally this season, so you would worry about the Whites in attack should he leave in January. Despite a nine place gulf between them as it stands, midtable beckons for both clubs. 1-1.

Derby vs. Sheff Wed

Promising partnership - Fryatt & Wickham

Last week: a team bottom of the table, yet to win, and with an under pressure manager playing one in the play-off places, and coming away with a 5-2 win, sums up the crazy nature of this league. These kind of shocks happen frequently, personally I do not understand the current obsession with the one-sidedness of the Spanish and German leagues, where results regarding top teams is so much more predictable. Ranting aside, the newly-formed ‘big man, little man’ partnership of loanees Connor Wickham and Matty Fryatt looks a good one for the Owls, yet it is also a temporary one. Connor Wickham’s loan contract is only until January, and with Hull struggling to score goals in the Premier League, Steve Bruce is considering recalling Matty Fryatt. If and when those two go, where will Wednesday be left? It can be dangerous for a side to develop an overreliance on loaned players. At Derby, Simon Dawkins has shown promise of taking the injured Jonny Russell’s place. Playing on the right side of a three-pronged attack, he scored a spectacular goal at QPR last week. As I see it, Wednesday’s high-scoring win was simply a freak result, Derby should get their second home win of the season. 3-1.

Huddersfield vs. Birmingham

Vaughan told his suspension has finished

The rather depressing task of predicting my own team’s fate is upon me. Blues are now in the bottom three after the defeat to Charlton, and for this game I’m particularly worried for us down our left side. Paul Robinson, though he has experience, is lacking in terms of pace. Up against a right winger with the technical quality of Adam Hammill, who has already racked up an impressive five assists this season, he might struggle. Huddersfield have only been beaten once at the Galpharm and will be boosted by the return of James Vaughan from suspension, the man who has scored half of the sides’ eighteen league goals this season. Five of Birmingham’s next six opponents are in the bottom half of the table, and as the Blues sit inside the relegation zone, this could be a crucial time in our season. 2-0.

Leicester vs. Nottm Forest

Wood scoring bizarre goal

Many will see this as an East Midlands derby between teams with promotion credentials, but for me only Leicester can go up. Nottingham Forest have a very good midfield, but at the moment, they do not have the quality in the key areas. First choice centre-backs Danny Collins and Kelvin Wilson have picked up long-term injuries, while up front their highest scoring striker has just four goals. Leicester look in much better shape across the pitch. They don’t have any stand-out performers, but Pearson has moulded them into a strong team which has won four on the trot now. After the high of winning so comfortably at Watford last week, thanks in part to that bizarre opener from Chris Wood, the Foxes will go into this derby game with nothing to fear - Nottingham Forest, much the opposite. 3-0.

Middlesbrough vs. Watford

Watford loan Thorne

That 3-0 home defeat to Leicester typifies Watford’s freakishly inconsistent season. Defensively they have been disorganised at the best of times, as only one team in the top half have conceded more goals than the Hornets. Manager Gianfranco Zola has loaned in holding midfielder George Thorne from West Brom to add some protection, but I’m not sure how much difference that will make. Thorne is only twenty, lacking hugely in the level of experience needed for the deep-lying ‘Pirlo role’ he looks set to take on, and has also had a few injury problems. Middlesbrough lost 1-0 at Blackburn last week, and despite having slightly more of the ball, they only managed a couple of shots on target. It is surprising, for a team who have scored more goals than anyone else in the bottom half of the Championship. Overall, both teams are scoring and conceding around one and a half-two goals per game this season, so the match has potential to be a high-scoring encounter. 2-2.

Yeovil vs. Wigan

"Is anyone else going to score?" - Hayter

Wigan are likely to keep a clean sheet here. Yes, the Latics had an important trip to Russia on Thursday, but playing in midweek rarely troubles a team’s defence – more often than not it gives them an opportunity to gel. Taking out their September cup defeat to Man City, Wigan have not given away more than one goal in a game in eleven matches. That puts them in a strong position against a Yeovil team who have failed to score in half their matches, and James Hayter’s grand tally of one represents their only goal coming from a forward. The Glovers have put in plenty of effort so far for a team with very little experience at this level, but Wigan will have too much quality for plucky Yeovil. 0-2.