Tuesday 18 December 2012

Why QPR are still heading for the drop

This weekend, QPR got their belated first win of the season against Fulham which has caused a lot of pundits to suggest that they can stay up if they can keep Taarabt fit and in form. My personal opinion is that they won't. Yes, the win gives them a fighting chance, but I see it as a result that merely prevents their task from being impossible, rather than a season-changer.

If people predict a team to stay up only on the weekends they win, their minds would change each week because every team wins at some stage. You've got to keep a sense of perspective. Here are some reasons why I remain convinced QPR will go down.

1. They've drawn too much against the teams near the bottom.

Here, I'm considering Aston Villa, Newcastle, Sunderland, Southampton, Wigan and Reading to be all of the teams who could potentially get relegated. QPR have played all of these teams, apart from Newcastle, once. Three of those five matches were at home. Let's have a look at the points that they've picked up:

Results against bottom clubs
Played- 5
Won- 0
Drawn- 4 (Reading, Sunderland, Villa and Wigan)
Lost- 1 (Southampton)
Points- 4

Results against other clubs
Played- 12
Won- 1 (Fulham)
Drawn- 4 (Norwich, Chelsea, Everton, Reading)
Lost- 8 (Swansea, Man City, Tottenham, West Ham, West Brom, Arsenal, Stoke, Man Utd)
Points- 7

Once they've visited St James's Park next week, they'll have played all of the bottom clubs once and possibly won't have beaten any of them. For a team trying to stay up, you're in dangerous territory when you're relying on wins against teams in the top ten for points. The bottom line is, it's imperative that for the most part, you can beat the teams around you if you want to keep yourself in the division, and QPR haven't done that. I reckon they'll now need to beat almost all of the bottom clubs in the second half of the season, which will be incredibly tough given that all the other teams will be scrapping for the points too.

2. Harry Redknapp hasn't made as big an impact as some suggest.

An interesting statistic is that Harry Redknapp has managed QPR to more points in his first 4 games in charge (6) than Mark Hughes had for the whole of the season beforehand (4). Some people might see this as a telling stat and that it suggests Harry will transform QPR's fortunes like he did at Spurs- I think you've got to look at the matter in more detail.

Firstly, you're comparing Redknapp doing a decent job, to how poorly Hughes was doing. By comparison, Redknapp looks like he is doing an amazing job, when in fact all he's done is not lose to teams QPR should be looking to beat. It was quite clear that things weren't going to work out for QPR under Hughes, and he couldn't get anything like the best out of the team. Appointing a higher-calibre manager in Redknapp does give QPR a better chance of staying up, but because of their situation I don't think they will.

As for the increase in points, all of Harry's first 4 matches in charge have been against teams they should have been looking to beat, in the bottom half of the table. Sunderland, Villa and Wigan are all teams that could become sucked into the relegation zone, and given how far adrift QPR were when they played them, they probably needed to take the opportunity to win. 

I just think it's ludicrous that after three draws against teams they ought to have tried to beat or get at least 6 points out of, because they beat Fulham who are below midtable, people now think they will stay up. 

The fact that Harry's first four in charge were winnable games, means the fixture list swung greatly in QPR's favour, but they couldn't take advantage.

3. They've got a very difficult start to the new year.

Even if they can pick up another couple wins before new year, they could be about to be pegged back again in their quest for survival, as they have a very tricky-looking January. They'll have trips to Chelsea and West Ham, and host Tottenham and Man City. The so-called 'Redknapp revival' could be over before it has begun.

If they only pick up 1pt from those 4 games, the momentum will go and they'll be back to square 1. That's why I think they should have taken the opportunity to beat teams like Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan whilst they had the chance, because I can't see them getting many points just after the turn of the year.

4. Reading are the only team locked into the relegation zone

To stay up, QPR need to find two teams out of Wigan, Southampton, Sunderland, Newcastle and Aston Villa who will slump in the second half of the season that they can gain 6 points on. Newcastle are bolstering their squad in January, Sunderland thumped Reading recently and have some quality players, Southampton look more than capable of scoring goals as the third-highest goalscorers in the bottom half of the league, people always predict Wigan to go down but they always hit a great run of form in March time and Aston Villa won brilliantly at Liverpool and Benteke is looking a class player for them. I wouldn't actually be prepared to bet on either of these teams getting relegated, but to stay up, QPR would need to drag down two of them.

It's all very well saying that they're playing better under their new manager but you've got to think about the relegation battle mathematically as well. They are 5pts away from safety, they can close that gap down and it does depend on whether they can win their next few games before January, but I think it's unlikely.

5. What would relegation mean for them?

I would worry about the future of that club should they go down. They've signed a lot of proven, experienced Premiership players, but they're all on high wages. I wonder whether Tony Fernandes granted Hughes the money to sign these players on the assumption that they'd have the money from being in the Premiership to pay for them.

Playing in the Premiership brings great financial rewards for clubs from TV money and sponsorship deals, but chairmen's ambition have cost them in the past. You only have to look at what happened to Leeds and Portsmouth, who had spent too much money trying to get into Europe, that they broke their wage structure and then got relegated and didn't have the money to rebuild. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen to QPR.

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