Friday 21 December 2012

My Premiership predictions

Merry Christmas to all scorers.

This weekend, Arsenal will want to build on their fabulous win at Reading when they play crumbling Wigan who sit in the relegation zone, Reading are in desperate need of points but are unlikely to get any at the Etihad, QPR, in a similar position, take the long trip up north with more hope at injury-stricken Newcastle and in-form Southampton host the Black Cats in a relegation six-pointer.

Norwich's unbeaten run is showing no signs of stopping, but they won't have it easy in their trip to the Hawthorns, Liverpool and Fulham play each other, both of whom on the back of disappointing defeats. The race for fourth looks to intensify as Tottenham and Everton play tough-tackling, hardworking teams Stoke and West Ham respectively, and Chelsea need to bounce back from Club World Cup disappointments by beating Villa who are off the back of an impressive win at Anfield.

Assuming Man City do the necessary against Reading, Man Utd will have to win in their arguably harder match at Swansea on Sunday to restore the 6pt gap. Here are my predictions:

Wigan vs. Arsenal

I can see an emphatic Arsenal win here. The massive win at Reading on Monday was an important one in quietening Wenger's critics after going out of the cup to Bradford, and in some ways typified Arsenal's inconsistency over the past 8 years or so. There is an argument that he perhaps shouldn't get brownie points for winning a game against Reading - who are bottom with the worst defensive record - that they should have won anyway. However, Wigan haven't conceded many fewer goals, and I think they'll be the next victims of Arsenal's ressurection.

Partly because of injuries to Ramis amongst others for Wigan, they've changed to a formation that incorporates 3 at the back. Arsenal can exploit this. If Podolski and Walcott are on the wings for Arsenal, their movement and pace should unhinge this potentially unstable Wigan defence and create plenty of chances. I also believe that Giroud will grow into the role as centre-forward and become a man to put them away, to put Arsenal's quest for 4th back on track. As for Wigan, it's now the job of Martinez to convert the doubters for a third season in a row, and playing Arsenal, Everton and Man Utd in their next four games won't be an easy way of picking up points, but then they never seem to do it the easy way. I'm going to go as far as saying Arsenal to win 1-4.

Del says: 0-3

Man City vs. Reading

There's no way Reading can win this. They just can't seem to defend at the moment and  stand very little chance of getting anything, but I also think they should play this match with a 'nothing to lose' attitude. The only way they can stay up is if they can win a match like this, in which no-one expects them to get anything but they manage to pull together, get a shock result and kick on. That's the only way I could see a way out for them.

I don't think they'll do it though. Man City will have too much for them and I'd expect Silva to pull the strings in the space just in front of the defence that Reading often leave exposed- that's been the source of a lot of their goals conceded this season and the Spaniard certainly has the quality and creativity to make them pay. 3-0.

Del says: 3-1

Newcastle vs. QPR

Last week's win at Fulham would be no good to QPR if they can't build on it with a result at St. James's. Because of where they are in the table, they now need to start putting results together. Although my season prediction remains to consist of QPR's relegation, they've changed their manager early enough to give themselves a chance. If they could get their second win of the season here that would be an important boost.

If Sunderland and Southampton weren't playing each other, Newcastle could be in the relegation zone at the end of this weekend. Some Toon fans are unhappy about the Europa League being used as an excuse for their poor season, but I think it has to be a factor. Yes they would have expected to be doing better but having to play on Thursday nights seriously messes up teams' mental preparation for matches, and it's lead to more injuries.

I'll go for a draw. I'm back Newcastle to stay up once they're out of Europe and have their full squad back, but the belief is obviously still with QPR after their win against Fulham, so I think they'll pick up a result here, 1 apiece.

Del says: 2-0

Southampton vs. Sunderland

The Saints having picked up 10pts from their last 5 matches, their impressive home form with  12pts from 9 games at St Marys, and their ability to score goals gives me a lot of confidence in their ability to stay up. However, they'll need to win this one as they've got a fairly tough run of games before the new year, they've played two more home matches than away so far and their game in hand is against Chelsea. It certainly won't be easy for them, but I can see a lot of self-belief in that squad, and would actually back them to stay in the league for another season at the moment.

Sunderland have got a top notch manager in Martin O'Neill and they have definately got Premiership quality attacking players, like Johnson, Sessegnon and Fletcher, but it's about getting those players on the ball and in form. You have to think that this is their best chance of picking up points for a while- they've got Man City, Tottenham and Liverpool after this match, so they'll need to make it count.

The 2 week break Southampton may mean a loss of momentum, but it could also re-vitalise them. If they can come out of the starting blocks early in this one then they'll have a great chance, as conceding goals in the first half and then only starting to play when it's too late has been the story of Sunderland's season so far. 2-1 the Saints.

Del says: 2-0

Tottenham vs. Stoke

Some people are saying that Stoke's physical and height advantage will unsettle Tottenham but I think it'll actually be the opposite. Bale's return will be a big plus for them, him and Lennon's pace on the flanks should be able to run rings around Stoke- they'll be able to get in between Stoke's legs and create a couple of chances for Defoe.

If this game was being played at the Britannia, I'd give the Potters more of a shout but White Hart Lane is a bigger pitch and Stoke don't win many away games, so I think they'll struggle. Defoe to get on the scoresheet, in a pretty comfortable 2-0 Tottenham win.

Del says: 2-1

West Brom vs. Norwich

Although these clubs are in the same position in the table, they've had opposite first halves of a season to each other. West Brom started like a rocket, beating Liverpool and Everton early on and built up a great home record. However, only a 0-0 draw at home to West Ham prevented them from losing their 5th game in a row, and they have now failed to score in 5 hours of football.

Norwich have done things in a different order. They really struggled early on in the season and looked a good bet for relegation when they lost 5-2 at home to Liverpool. But in mid-October, they beat Arsenal and haven't looked back since, going on a breathtaking 10 game unbeaten run and beating Manchester United along the way.

The one thing they do have in common is that both managers, Steve Clarke and Chris Hughton have done remarkably well to be well into the top half of the table at this stage, considering the teams were widely tipped for relegation before the season started. West Brom to break their scoring duck but Norwich to hold onto their unbeaten run, which I think would please both sets of fans. 1-1.

Del says: 1-0


West Ham vs. Everton

Yet again, I'd like to give David Moyes some credit, this time for the way he handled the Fellaini situation. A lot of managers in those circumstances would have gone into the interview with a strong sense of agenda for their club, trying to somehow defend their player or evade answering the question, but Moyes was brilliantly honest and showed a lot of integrity, which I really respected.

What Fellaini did was shameful, and he can consider himself lucky that it was only a 3 match ban. He's let down his teammates as well because the Toffees will unquestionably miss him in this match- they've geared so much of their play this season around getting the ball to the Belgian direct and letting him spearhead attacking moves, but now they've got to try and find a plan B.

I'm going to go with my instinct and say West Ham to win. They might have only won one of their last 6 games, but Allardyce rarely let's his side go too long without a victory, so I've got a sneaky feeling they'll get the win on Saturday. Fellaini is the kind of player for Everton that when he plays well, the team plays well and everything flows. The Toffees are missing the beating heart of their attack and I don't think they'll score goals without him, so 1-0 to the Hammers.

Del says: 1-3

Liverpool vs. Fulham

Liverpool's performance against Aston Villa last week was dreadful, and I think they'll approach this match with a real point to prove. Despite not having a great league position, it might be interesting to note that they are averaging 2pts a game in Premiership matches after a defeat, and they've never lost 2 games consecutively. I think that tells you something about Brendan Rodger's motivational skills and he'll have them bouncing back from that loss against Villa, I'm sure of it.

Fulham might be the joint-5th highest goalscorers in the Premiership, but they're also in lower-midtable, so that tells you something about their defence. Only Wigan, QPR, Reading and Southampton have conceded more goals. I feel that the opportunity for a very big win is there for Liverpool and think youngster Sterling, having just signed a new long-term contract with the club, will get in amongst Fulham's aging defence with his pace. This is a bit risky I know, but I'm going to go 4-0 Liverpool.

Del says: 1-1

Swansea vs. Man Utd

It might be a tougher game this weekend for United than for City, but I'd still expect Man Utd to win. Carrick and Cleverley are starting to form and exciting-looking partnership in midfield for United. They can both pass the ball rather well, Carrick is good at holding his position, reading the game, protecting the defence and keeping the shape of the team in place. Cleverley though, is more expansive and plays with a lot of confidence, he's very good at linking up play and some of the runs off the ball he makes are top class. At first I thought the introduction of Cleverley was down to United having to cut costs because of their debt, by developing academy products to fill in the gaps a bit but he's proving me wrong so far. Looks to be the real deal.

I read somewhere that Swansea need a good January so they don't start 'looking nervously over their shoulders', but I don't believe that for a second. They're having a fantastic season, sit some 8pts above the relegation zone and there are 8 teams currently more likely to go down than them. Unless they lose all of their games until the end of February or something, they'll be just fine, but I couldn't see past a United win on Sunday, and the return of Vidic, Jones and Smalling should boost their defence to a clean sheet, in a 0-2 win.

Del says: 0-4

Chelsea vs. Aston Villa

Chelsea's 5-1 win at Leeds has been significantly overdramatised in my opinion. Yes, it was mildly impressive that they had the legs to score so many in the second half, after travelling back from Japan a couple of days earlier, but let's be honest: Leeds are a midtable Championship club, and if Chelsea weren't beating them, people would be saying there's a massive problem at the club. A sense of perspective is in order I think.

Villa got a wonderful win at Liverpool last week, and if Benteke had cost the same as Michu or perhaps Sebastien Bassong, I'd say he would be buy of the season. Paying £7 million for him though, means that Lambert shouldn't be too grateful for what he's done. I think his performances is more evidence for the rise of Belgium in world football, because although he plays in a slightly different position, he's a similar type of player to Fellaini at Everton- i.e. he's absolutely pivotal to the team. When he has a good game, everyone else does too and I'm not sure Villa would be as far out of trouble as they are without Benteke. I don't just mean in terms of his goals, but they way he holds that team together and brings the best out of everyone too.

This game is being played at the wrong time from Chelsea's point of view. They've had to travel thousands of miles, they played in midweek and I don't think Benitez can squeeze enough from that tub of toothpaste to find a win here. Villa are off the back of a brilliant result and the whole team looks to be clicking now, playing with a lot of confidence and I think they'll have more than enough to get a point here. 1-1.

Del says: 1-1

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