Tuesday 4 December 2012

Big clubs and small clubs: is the gap gettting smaller?

We seem to me to be in something of a transition period in terms of the structure of the Premier League. A few years ago, the 'big four'- i.e. Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool, looked like immovable objects. It was always a 'four horse race' for the Premiership title, until about December when Liverpool would normally fall short and then either Chelsea or Arsenal would in about March time and it would then be a 'two horse race' between Manchester United and Chelsea/Arsenal.
 
We don't have that anymore. The arrival of Manchester City has played a massive part in this change, I now think it'll be a two horse race for the next 5 years or so between the Manchester clubs for the title. This could even be to the extent it has been for donkeys years in Spain between Madrid and Barcelona- there's almost the same distance in points between Manchester City (2nd) and Chelsea (3rd), as there is between Chelsea and Norwich (12th).
 
Suffice to say, there's a massive block of teams from 3rd, all the way down to 12th, who are separated by just 7pts. If the problems at Chelsea continue, I could see them becoming well integrated with this block of teams, more so than with the title race. 
 
What interests me, is that of these 10 teams, 5 of them are considered 'big clubs' with a great history: Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Everton. The other 5, are 'smaller clubs', most of which finished midtable last season: Swansea, Stoke, West Ham, West Brom, Norwich.
 
As far, there have been 19 games between the 'big clubs' and 'smaller clubs' this season who fit into this big block of teams, and I'd like to take a look at the results:
 
Big club wins: 6 times
Swansea 0-3 Everton
Chelsea 1-0 Stoke
Norwich 2-5 Liverpool
Chelsea 4-1 Norwich
West Ham 1-3 Arsenal
Tottenham 3-1 West Ham
 
Draws: 7 times
Tottenham 1-1 West Brom
Stoke 0-0 Arsenal
Tottenham 1-1 Norwich
Liverpool 0-0 Stoke
Swansea 1-1 Chelsea
Everton 1-1 Norwich
Swansea 0-0 Liverpool
 
Smaller club wins: 6 times
West Brom 3-0 Liverpool
West Brom 2-0 Everton
Norwich 1-0 Arsenal
West Brom 2-1 Chelsea
West Ham 3-1 Chelsea
Arsenal 0-2 Swansea
 
As you can see, results between the bigger clubs and the overachieving midtable teams have been very evenly split. A lot of credit deserves to go to West Brom though, as so far they've been involved in 3 of the 6 wins for the smaller clubs.
 
Although the actual split of the results is very close, it's probably worth noting that the results in which the bigger club have won, most of the time they've won by a big scoreline- in fact it's only the case in the Chelsea-Stoke match that the bigger club have won by just the one goal.
 
To me, this suggests that results for the smaller clubs have been very psychologically-based, rather than quality-based. When a team comes up against a big club, the defence will be fully focused and determined not to concede the first goal, but if they do concede first, the focus goes and they seem to let in more.
 
What backs this theory up is that in 7 of the 13 cases in which the smaller clubs have picked up a result, they've kept a clean sheet. If you're holding onto a clean sheet for the whole match, there's always going to be that extra-incentive to punch above your weight  in a sense, and keep the opposition out. Where you are in the table at the end of the season though, is arguably based upon the overall quality of your team, more than being well-motivated in  individual matches.
 
In terms of this season, I think some of the overachieving teams like West Brom and Swansea won't be able to stay where they are, and the quality in teams like Arsenal and Liverpool will prevail and climb above them in the second half of the season.
 
Given how close results have been between between some of the big clubs though, and also the 7pts distance between 3rd and 12th in the table, one wonders whether the gap between the big and small clubs is getting smaller for the longer-term.
 
If Arsenal and Liverpool continue to reduce the quality in their squad, or if the problems with managers continue at Chelsea, will we have a similar scenario to what we had 40-odd years ago when teams could get promoted from the second tier and challenge in the top third of the table?

It seems unlikely that a club could do that without significant financial boosts, yet one can't help but be inspired by the progress teams like West Brom, West Ham and Swansea have been making. Particularly Baggies and Swansea have based their successes on showing no fear and playing football the way they think it should be played- they keep the ball on the floor but they're also very hardworking teams.

What also makes me think that times are changing, is that Man United and Man City look the only dead certainties to be at the top of the table for the next five years. Even there, the FIFA financial fair play rules could affect City and United are in debt- a lot of their trophies is owed to Sir Alex Ferguson, who can't go on forever.

I genuinely think Champions League football is a realistic long-term target for a smaller club, Arsenal and Liverpool certainly aren't the forces they used to be. Arsenal seem to be in a constant state of backwards decline and Liverpool wouldn't be too far off a relegation battle, in my opinion, if they sold Suarez and a couple of other key players, who could quite comfortably get into a title-winning side.

You've also got to question Chelsea's position. To be honest, I think Abramovich has alienated Guardiola in some respects, by sacking so many managers. He might be a very rich man but he clearly knows very little of the way football works. To get rid of a manager after winning the Champions League just because they weren't winning every week is incredibly disrespectful, and you've got to ask yourself what world-class manager would actually want to manage Chelsea, once Benitez inevitably goes?

Tottenham look to heading in the right direction under AVB; many people were unsure about him after his unsuccessful spell at Chelsea, but I think he's implemented his own 4-2-3-1 system in very well and I can see Tottenham getting 3rd this season.

Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal though, all have squads that are in something of a transition period of different sorts, or possibly even a decline, depending on how well or badly their managers lead them through it.

If Rodgers, Benitez and Wenger fail to rebuild their squads to the full extent though, I feel like the window is open in the very long-term for a lower team like Swansea or West Brom to force themselves into a contest for that final Champions League spot, which may become quite open.

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