Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Nine

My prediction for every match of this weekends football, in the Premier League and Championship...

Premier League

Palace vs. Arsenal

Tough job for Millen

It seemed very surprising that Arsenal lost the match against Dortmund, having had so much of the ball. They came up against a very well-organised German defence, and didn’t manage to guard against Dortmund’s counter attack at the end. That first defeat in twelve games could spark a difficult period for Arsenal, with some testing fixtures coming up in all competitions. Palace’s 4-1 home defeat to Fulham was a blow in their survival ambitions. As a result they might go into this game being a little bit more cautious and disciplined defensively, which puts me off tipping this to be a cricket score. Arsenal to grind out a 0-1 win.

Aston Villa vs. Everton

Barry returns to Villa Park

Lambert and Martinez are two looking to modernise their teams, as both sides have converted to three at the back during certain phases of play this season. Lambert is trying to make Villa more fluid, as Bacuna and Luna push forward much like wingbacks, and Westwood occasionally fills in the gaps at the back. It’s a similar strategy for Everton, with Coleman and Baines playing very attack-minded, leaving Gareth Barry to drop back. Talking of Barry, the ex-Villa man returns to his old stomping ground after a controversial game against Hull. He was alleged to have scored an offside goal, and shortly afterwards, injured Danny Graham. From the replay, he didn’t seem to have got a touch for the goal, and the challenge looked like a bit of acting from Graham – Barry’s foot was high, yet there was no contact from the boot. This could be a high-scoring game. With forward-minded fullbacks and an aging defensive partnership, Everton might struggle against the pace of Villa’s attack. The Toffees are amongst the league’s higher scoring teams though, so an entertaining draw could be on the cards at Villa Park. 2-2.

Liverpool vs. West Brom

Looking solid - Yacob

I could see West Brom taking a point here. They did the double over the Reds last season, winning 5-0 on aggregate - without much of a change in either squad since, this could have an impact. Liverpool started the season very solid with three straight clean sheets, yet since they’ve conceded seven goals from five games, and against teams in the bottom half of the table. They’ve started to concede goals from set pieces and defend sloppily, lacking leadership at the back. In fact, they’ve now conceded more goals than their opponents, West Brom. The Baggies have already kept three clean sheets this season, which has had a lot to do with the defensive midfield partnership of Yacob and Mulumbu. The Liverpool trio of Moses, Suarez and Sturridge, rather than directly attack the defence, tend to drift around looking for space, and take advantage of the gap between defence and midfield. With Yacob and Mulumbu remaining firm, those three might not get the space they need to create chances, which could result in a frustrating afternoon for Liverpool. 1-1.

Man Utd vs. Stoke

Time for Vidic and Rio to move on?

A reasonable performance from United against Real Sociedad on Wednesday put them in control of the group. They should qualify with another win, which will allow Moyes more freedom when it comes to resting players and correcting their league form. It looks as though the partnership of Jones and Evans is actually stronger than Vidic and Ferdinand; they have more pace, less injuries, and provide long-term options. This is the time for Moyes to show more faith in youth; United's squad is filled with players who have a lot of potential. Stoke City stumbled to a draw against West Brom last week and sit one point above the relegation zone; thankfully for them rivals Norwich and Cardiff are playing each other, so the Potters are unlikely to fall into the drop zone with defeat on Saturday. United have only scored eleven league goals under Moyes this season, but they might have turned a corner after the result against Sociedad, so they should be due a convincing win. 3-0.

Norwich vs. Cardiff

Bright prospect - Redmond

Things aren’t looking so good for the Canaries. They’ve invested north of £20 million this summer, bringing in three strikers, yet they’ve only scored six goals this season and sit in the drop zone. Although Hughton needs to improve results quickly, they have played five of the top seven teams in their opening eight games – losing to Chelsea and Arsenal in their last two is no less than anyone expected. Cardiff on the other hand, let themselves down slightly at Chelsea. They conceded the equalizer because of a self-inflicted error from their keeper Marshall, whilst Caulker looked a liability at the back. Both teams have lost their last two, so you wouldn’t particularly fancy either side going into this one, it looks like the game might be a draw. 1-1.

Southampton vs. Fulham

Pochettino Impressing

Two vital wins for Fulham takes them away from the relegation zone, and eases some of the pressure on Martin Jol. They thumped Crystal Palace 4-1 last week which should build confidence, although personally I didn’t think Kasami’s goal was quite as good as people have said. It looked like a pot shot, where he just wanted to whack it and hope, with nothing else on. Southampton’s fine start to the season continued with a late point at Old Trafford, and at the moment the team is playing full of confidence. Southampton have very flexible players and work at a high-tempo, which will be difficult for Fulham to handle defensively. The Cottagers have a much more rigid style, and their attacking players don’t tend to track back, so this is a comfortable win for Southampton. 2-0.

Sunderland vs. Newcastle

Toon fans: Ashley Out

It was a baptism of fire for Poyet last week, he watched his new side lose 4-0 at Swansea, and fall to seven points away from safety. Defensively Sunderland don’t look like competing, the one positive is that under Poyet, Brighton had the second best defensive record in the Championship last season. Re-organizing the team will be the Uruguayan’s first priority, but this game doesn’t give him the best opportunity do so. Bitter rivals Newcastle have scored two goals in each of their last six games in all competitions, and outside the top four, only Everton and Swansea have scored more goals than Toon this season. Newcastle fans have protested against the ownership of Mike Ashley this week, for various reasons. Whilst his running of the club has been questionable at best, you can’t criticize the lack of signings this summer. Not bringing too many new faces in seems to have settled the squad, and given a lot of French players who came in January a chance to gel. For a lot of teams in Sunderland’s situation, they would see a derby game as a chance to come out fighting and kick-start their season. But with thirteen new foreign players having signed in the summer, they will lack that extra determination to get the result. For Newcastle it won’t be a problem, because they are playing with confidence going forward, so they can get a 1-2 win here.

Chelsea vs. Man City

Aguero rediscovering form

Chelsea beat Cardiff 4-1 last week, but the game did highlight a potential problem defensively. David Luiz naturally bursts forward from the back to break up attacks and start moves, but it leaves the aging John Terry exposed. Fullbacks don’t have the freedom to support attacks, which is a problem because Chelsea lack width with three attacking midfielders. Man City got their first away win of the season at West Ham last week, to put them three points off the top, and qualification from their Champions League group will be confirmed with another win, giving Pellegrini the freedom to rest players. It may have been an inconsistent start for him, but the Chilean has gotten the best out of Sergio Aguero, who already has nine goals to his name, and Yaya Toure, the driving force behind City's 11/12 title winning campaign. Both sides have plenty of creativity, and with neither top of the league, neither manager is likely to take the 'play for a draw' approach which usually leads to a drab game. This should be a cracker. 2-2.

Swansea vs. West Ham

Congested fixtures for Laudrup

Swansea play at home on Thursday night against Kuban Krasnodar, but that’s unlikely to make a difference. Their record from matches which have come directly after a European game for Swansea this season, is six points from four games. Their overall record this season, is ten points from eight games. This suggests that Swansea keep the ball so well and retain energy, that they’ve been able to negate the problem of having to compete on two fronts. The Swans should have a lot of the ball in this game as well, because West Ham like to sit back in their own half, particularly away from home. The Hammers picked up a meagre thirteen points on the road last season, whilst a routine defeat to City last week suggests that their 3-0 win at Spurs was simply a freak result. Swansea to win 1-0.

Tottenham vs. Hull

Myhill MOM at Spurs 2009

After the aforementioned horror show against West Ham, Spurs got back on the road against Villa last week, as Andros Townsend continued his string of impressive performances. He is likely to have another good game against Hull, who have started the season well, but tend to find it difficult against teams who play with a lot of width.Hull will also be without first choice goalkeeper Allan McGregor, who picked up an injury on Wednesday, leaving goalkeeping duties with Steve Harper at short notice. It could turn out to be Harper's day, like it was for Boaz Myhill, who had an extraordinary game for Hull when they last came to Tottenham and earned them a point in 2009. But it's unlikely, and with so much creativity in their team and Soldado having found his goalscoring boots at Villa Park last week, Spurs won't have a problem winning 3-0 here.

The Championship

Middlesborough vs. Doncaster

How will Venus fare as 'Boro boss?

Middlesbrough have sacked Tony Mowbray, after a very mediocre start to the season. It was probably the right decision from Steve Gibson, but he has said that Mowbray had one of the biggest budgets in the Championship, which I'm not convinced about - Middlesbrough only spent a net total of around £2 million since Mowbray was appointed. With ever-dwindling attendances, the club has little spending power, so the next manager definitely needs to build through the club’s impressive academy. For now the caretaker manager’s job is with Mark Venus, who was Mowbray’s assistant, but going purely on his first press conference he didn’t look particularly convincing. The man strikes me as someone who is very adept tactically, but lacks the media-handling ability and charisma to be a good manager - I could be proved completely wrong. Doncaster might just smell blood in this one, and take advantage of the uncertainty at the Riverside. Only once this season have Rovers lost back-to-back games, which indicates that Paul Dickov keeps his team motivated, and ingrains a strong mentality into the dressing room. They lost 4-1 at Reading last week, so Dickov will want an improved performance and I think he’ll get it. 1-2.

Barnsley vs. Sheff Wed

Semedo sent off

A crunch clash between two of the bottom three teams is Saturday’s early kick-off, and even at this relatively early stage, it’s a vital game for both teams. Barnsley scored three on Saturday, but they couldn’t keep their concentration towards the end and defended sloppily for Middlesbrough’s two goals in the final ten minutes. Although they got the much-needed win, their defensive organisation is something they’ve struggled with since the start of the season and Flitcroft needs to work on it. I’m not sure how Wednesday manager Dave Jones can defend Semedo after a terrible challenge on Jay Spearing, in their 1-1 draw at Bolton. He completely deserved his sending off. Wednesday’s third successive draw leaves them still without a win this season, which will be a big concern for the fans. Without that confidence booster of winning games, it is highly possible that this series of draws for the Owls will eventually turn into a cycle of defeats. Given uncertain times at Wednesday, on and off the pitch, I favour Barnsley going into this Surprisingly, they’ve only lost two home games this season. I would fancy them to improve defensively, and pick up their first clean sheet of the season with a 2-0 win.

Huddersfield vs. Leeds

Leeds boosted by 4-0 win

Given the apparent lack of firepower in their squad, Leeds’ 4-0 win over Birmingham last week came as a surprise to everyone, having picked up just one point from six beforehand. McDermott changed to a 3-5-2 for that game and it worked wonders - the partnership of Matt Smith’s height and Ross McCormack’s finishing quality looks quite promising. They now have the perfect opportunity to build confidence, in a West Yorkshire derby against a Huddersfield side who are without a win in five games. Crucially, the Terriers are missing striker James Vaughan, who has scored nine of Huddersfield’s fourteen goals this season. He’s suspended for this match, meaning Jonathan Stead is likely to feature up front. Stead, by contrast, has only started three games this season, making little impression in his role as an 'impact' substitute. Leeds will feel confident of keeping a clean sheet, so they will come out the victors 0-2.

Blackpool vs. Blackburn

MacKenzie settled well

Blackpool’s 1-0 win over Wigan last week keeps them in the play-off places. The Tangerines are built on a solid foundation, having kept three consecutive clean sheets and Gary MacKenzie, in particular, looks to have settled in well at the heart of their defence. When Blackpool have played five in midfield they have proved difficult to break down, so this will be a tough game for Blackburn. In a similar case to Huddersfield and James Vaughan, Jordan Rhodes has scored the majority of Rovers’s goals, yet I’ve got a feeling he might hit a rough patch in form. The Scot picked up an injury on international duty, looked to have had an ineffective game against Charlton - there’s a lot of pressure on him to score goals. Blackburn have lost their last two, and if this game makes it a third consecutive defeat, they could drop into the bottom half of the table. 1-0.

Bolton vs. Ipswich

"One more please, Jermaine!"

Bolton badly need that second win of the season, to give themselves some breathing space from the relegation pack. The Trotters might be unbeaten in four, although some consistency is required from Jermaine Beckford - their main striker has scored in his last two games.  As for Ipswich, talks of Mick McCarthy taking the Ireland job have continued which will be unsettling for the players, who were unfortunate in their defeat against Burnley. The Tractor Boys are searching for their first win on the road this season, and I can’t see them getting it at the Reebok, because Bolton look like they’re about to start, gradually, climbing the table. 1-0.

Burnley vs. QPR

Will Austin score against old club?

I’ve thought about this game all week, and the conclusion I keep coming to is a bore draw. Firstly, both teams have been extremely organised. QPR have always had the best defensive record in the Championship, while Burnley have only conceded one goal in their last four. Also, both teams would probably accept a point. Burnley will look at the quality of QPR’s side and feel an element of fear, whilst QPR, playing away against the team top of the league, would probably take a draw themselves. We could see a game of two teams defending deep as well. If Richard Dunne partners Clint Hill at centre-back for QPR, they are both aging defenders so they’ll want to make sure they’re not caught out by the pace of Ings from Sam Vokes’ flick-ons. Burnley are a team that naturally defend deep and look to hit teams on the counter, and that plan is unlikely to change for this game. The match is not a ‘must win’ for either side, so this might be a 0-0 stalemate.

Derby vs. Birmingham

Birmingham missed Adeyami

Derby’s 3-2 win at Watford will bring confidence for the now joint-highest scoring team in the Championship, under the management of Steve McLaren. Two games, two wins is the perfect start to his reign in charge. He needed it, because otherwise his unsuccessful time with England would start to become an issue for the media, and a target for opposition fans. He’ll be delighted with the start, and his 100% record is likely to continue against Birmingham, a side who have lost their last five away games. A big factor in their 4-0 defeat at Leeds was the absence of Tom Adeyami and Callum Reilly in the centre. Adeyami may return for this game, but the blow for the Blues is that impressive loanee Jesse Lingard is out for this game. With Birmingham having conceded nine goals in their last three away games, this will probably be a comfortable Derby win. 3-1.

Leicester vs. Bournemouth

Vardy needs to start scoring

Bournemouth continue to throw their weight around in the Championship, picking up a late point at Nottingham Forest last week. Eddie Howe’s side now have another challenging East Midlands trip, this time to Leicester, who have won each of their last five home games. They beat Huddersfield last week, with out-of-form Jamie Vardy getting his first goal in nine games - since signing for Leicester in 2012, Vardy hasn’t been able to convert his non-league form to the Championship. But with Burnley playing QPR this weekend, the Foxes will fancy their chances of furthering their claim in the automatic promotion race. Bournemouth like to play with attacking fullbacks and that might leave some spaces for the likes of Dyer and Knockaert to exploit, a Leicester win for me. 2-1.

Reading vs. Millwall

Adkins' side in play-offs

Reading got an impressive 4-1 win over Doncaster last week, with four different goalscorers, including a belter from Danny Guthrie. It’s a good way to bounce back from a couple of disappointing results against Barnsley and Burnley, and if Reading’s home form will be key to their play-off chances this season, they will need to win 'routine' games such as these. But Millwall showed some spirit last week, by coming from behind twice against QPR’s strong defence. If Lomas is getting that kind of response from the players, he clearly can’t have lost the respect of the dressing room, despite the disdain of most fans. A positive for Millwall is that Scott MacDonald scored his second goal of the season, the Lions will make this a close game, but Reading will have just enough quality to nick it 2-1.

Yeovil vs. Nottm Forest

How long is the gap since Paddy Madden last scored?

On paper, this is probably the most predictable game of the weekend. A bottom of the table Yeovil Town team, who draw a blank as often as they score, play a promotion-chasing Forest side unbeaten in seven. Billy Davies’ men did drop two points late on at home to Bournemouth last week, but they should be able to bounce back from that, even without the injured Kelvin Wilson. Yeovil on the other hand, looked simply doomed. They desperately need their top scorer in League One last season, Paddy Madden, to start finding his Championship feet, because otherwise they don’t look capable of scoring goals. Forest will ease to a 0-2 win.

Charlton vs. Wigan

Important win for Powell's side

There may not be too many goals in a game between two of the lower-scoring teams in the table. I was very happy to have predicted Charlton's 1-0 win at Ewood Park last week - I went very much against the table and form guide, but I felt that Chris Powell's side were due a win, having been a little unlucky in previous games. The fact remains that only Yeovil have scored less goals than Charlton this season, but the well-taken strike from Simon Church last week, and his goal for Wales recently, will give Powell much to deliberate over when Yann Kermorgant returns from injury. Wigan's away form so far has been abysmal. Since the 4-0 win at Barnsley on the opening day, they've lost to nil in each of their following four Championship away games. To say that their Europa League campaign has disrupted their league form could be inaccurate though - they have won both of the domestic matches which have followed a Europa League clash. A 1-1 draw seems the most likely outcome here.

Brighton vs. Watford

Watford won 3-1 at Brighton last season

Brighton are now without a win in four. In mid-September, it looked as if they were going on a run of wins under Oscar Garcia, but they are now back down to sixteenth, eight points off the play-offs. The Seagulls pass the ball around well, they have a fairly sturdy defence, yet they are currently averaging less than a goal per game - therein lies the problem. They need a goalscorer. The pressure is on loanee Lita to find his form, as Leandro Ulloa won't return until Christmas, and may soon leave to be re-united with Poyet at Sunderland. Watford lost at home to Derby last week. The Hornets have been something of a jack-in-the-box so far this season, in the sense that you never know quite what kind of performance to expect from them. Even though there's a significant gap in the table, I might go with Brighton to get a win with home advantage, because the squad they have is better than their league form suggests. 2-1.

Problems at Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday are a club with potential. They have a great history, a nice old-fashioned stadium that can hold a fair few, and a very loyal band of supporters. Without a win this season though, these are troubled times for the Owls, who currently sit inside the relegation zone. An aging team, a questionable manager, uncertainty at the top – or simply bad luck? This is where the problem lies at Hillsborough.

In December 2010, Milan Mandaric brought Sheffield Wednesday FC. He decided to leave Leicester, a club performing well in the Championship, whilst Wednesday were struggling to adapt to life back down in the third tier. One can only presume that financial prosperity had much to do with his decision, because he received a £40 million bid for Leicester City FC from Thai businessman Vichai Raksriaksorn. Mandaric could now buy Wednesday, a club dealing with a series of winding up orders for unpaid tax and VAT bills, for a negligible fee, although he spent £7 million clearing club debt.

It might not seem it, but in terms of his own agenda this was a very clever move. If there are approximately 20,000 consistent season ticket holders at Sheffield Wednesday, and Mandaric charges £500 for a season ticket - which he could get away with given such a reliable fan base - that’s £10 million per year gained on season tickets alone. Take off perhaps £4 million per year on the wage bill, plus a net transfer spend averaging less than £300K per year in transfer fees, and Mr Mandaric is making a rather tidy profit.

Looking to sell - Mandaric

But Sheffield Wednesday are once again in debt, and surprise surprise, Mandaric is looking to sell the club. Talks with former Birmingham City board member, Sammy Yu have broken down this summer, but two interested parties are now believed to be ready to meet Mandaric’s £25 million valuation.

So with Mandaric looking to sell and negotiations dragging on, this uncertainty at the top has clearly affected the Wednesday players. The Owls haven’t exactly been incompetent this season; no team outside the top seven have lost less games than Dave Jones’ side. The flip side is though, that they are the only Championship team without a win so far this season, which will be a massive cause for concern for the Wednesday faithful.

Strangely, the team had taken the lead in five of their opening six games. Given this, and the fact that their defence holds an average age of twenty-nine, the common interpretation would be that they concede too many late goals. This is not the case. Eleven of the seventeen goals they’ve conceded have come in the first half, only two have come in the final fifteen minutes. Eight of their goals conceded have come in the fifteen minute periods before and after half time, which suggests that concentration is a problem.

Indeed, with so much experience in the team, it is surprising that Wednesday haven’t been able to grind out a win. There is a problem with the side’s mental strength, and this must come down to Dave Jones. Of course the uncertainty regarding a potential takeover unsettles the team and puts pressure on the manager; Jones doesn’t know whether his job is safe if and when the new owners come in.

Jones - lacking charisma?

Yet on the whole, he hasn’t helped his cause. In interviews, not only does he consistently talk about the individual incidents, he presents himself as a man downbeat, overweight, and almost apathetic. It is one thing taking a more reserved approach, yet Jones never looks like he wants to be there in the first place; his body language wouldn’t look out of place at his nan’s funeral. This may seem harsh, but he lacks the energy needed to motivate and galvanise a team struggling in the bottom three. For example, when David Flitcroft took over as manager at Barnsley last season, he had the passion which transferred into the players and he instantly got the respect of the team. Sheffield Wednesday could do with that type of impact at the moment.

Whilst it would be inaccurate to say their matches have been a complete disaster, the fact remains that Wednesday are second bottom in the league, and there needs to be a change of mentality at Hillsborough for results to improve. There are a fair few available managers at the moment, and when a new board come in, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to sack Dave Jones unless results improved dramatically.

In the temporary period, assistant manager Paul Wilkinson might well do a good job, as caretaker managers often do given an opportunity to prove themselves. Wilkinson’s experience is mainly managing youth and reserve teams, he was initially appointed head of recruitment at Wednesday. His tendency to work with younger players though, may mean he has more enthusiasm on the touchline than Jones, which the players may respond to.

Even if ultimately, a more proven manager is preferred to Wilkinson, the likes of Ian Holloway, Alex McLeish, Tony Pulis and Tony Mowbray are available at the moment. Neither of the latter three are renowned for passion, but bringing in a new manager might just give the players the sense of a fresh start, and inject much-needed vigour into the team.

The main factor keeping Dave Jones in a job, is Milan Mandaric. Jones was appointed in March 2012 on a three and a half year contract, which has two years left to run. If Mandaric’s involvement in football is predominantly, if not entirely for financial reasons (the manner in which he left Portsmouth and Leicester suggests it is) then why would he want to hand Jones a massive compensation fee to leave, when about to relinquish control of the club?

Wednesday can only move forward when they’ve got some new owners in. The fact is that The Owls are stuck in a downward spiral under Dave Jones, but it seems he won’t leave until Mandaric leaves. Even if there is a change at the top, there is no guarantee of things changing, because one must be sceptical about the intentions of any foreign investor. But Mandaric has made clear that he wants to sell, and until then, Sheffield Wednesday are going downhill.

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Eight

After an international break, here is another week of my predictions for this weekend's matches in the Premier League and the Championship.

Premier League

Newcastle vs. Liverpool

Liverpool romped to victory this fixture last season

This fixture last season was certainly a memorable one, as Liverpool played their first game with Luis Suarez banned from the biting incident, and came away from St. James’s with a remarkable 6-0 win. This time, they have Suarez back and currently sit joint-top of the table with Arsenal, although they will have a difficult job to stay there much longer. Since their home defeat to Southamton, they’ve only beaten the bottom two sides, Sunderland and Palace - hardly a measure of their title credentials. Newcastle have got off to a mixed start, with three wins, three defeats and a draw, the form of Loic Remy being key. Pardew has often started him as an inside forward on the left, playing just behind Cisse, so far that seems to have worked. Liverpool are unlikely to stay top for much longer, whilst Newcastle’s win at Cardiff before the break will have reduced some of the pressure on Alan Pardew, so Toon can take a 1-1 draw.

Arsenal vs. Norwich

Will Gnabry get a chance?

The Gunners remain top of the table, despite dropping points at West Brom before the internationals. The man who has contributed three assists in four games, Mesut Ozil is a doubt for this match, but either way Wenger shouldn’t be too concerned. They have creativity in Santi Cazorla, whilst 18-year-old Serge Gnabry perhaps deserves a chance, having impressed thus far. This is the start to a sequence of very difficult away fixtures for Norwich, as the Canaries sit inside the relegation zone on goal difference, but level on points with three other teams. From their next three home games – Cardiff, West Ham and Palace – six points must be the aim, because I can’t see them getting anything from the Emirates. 2-0.

Chelsea vs. Cardiff

Bertrand - Chelsea's weak spot?

Chelsea’s one weakness on Saturday could be down their left side, with the experienced Ashley Cole out through injury, and Ryan Bertrand likely to get his first start of the season. Cardiff like to attack down the right as well, they could cause dilemmas for an aging John Terry, and David Luiz, who looked defensively naïve last season. Cardiff have a lot of tall, physical players in their team whilst Chelsea are relying on small, pretty technicians for creativity, and that might be a problem as well. If this was at Cardiff and Chelsea were struggling for form, I would be quite content to go for a draw. But this is at Stamford Bridge, and Chelsea have won ten of their last eleven Premier League home games, and four of their last five in all competitions. The chances are, the Blues will win this in the end. 3-1.

Everton vs. Hull

Barry returns

Gareth Barry will return to Everton’s midfield, after loan restrictions meant that he couldn’t play against parent club Man City two weeks ago. The experienced ex-Villa man has been an important part of the Toffees’ good start to the season, likewise Romelu Lukaku, who already has four goals to his name. Hull are only one point and place behind their opponents, having already kept three clean sheets from their first seven Premier League games, a massive achievement for newly-promoted club. But I feel they’re due a bit of a reality check, which seems to happen to most promoted sides when they’ve got off to a good start in the top flight. In recent games, Hull have played with two narrow banks of four, Everton have a lot of width in Coleman and Baines, who will really stretch Hull. I could see the Tigers having a rare bad day at the office, and Everton running away with this 3-0.

Man Utd vs. Southampton

Adnan - United's future star?

With the stakes so high at Sunderland, David Moyes deserves some credit for gambling on Adnan Januzaj, and he was rewarded. But it’s important United fans don’t get too overexcited about Januzaj. He’s played well so far but he’s only started one match, it would be dangerous for Man Utd to pin their hopes on an 18-year-old. Anything other than three points would be a disaster for the Red Devils, which is a worry, because they play a Southampton team who are up to fourth, and have kept five consecutive clean sheets in all competitions. Southampton play with a high tempo, and that might make it a difficult game for United’s aging defence, plus Carrick and Fellaini aren’t the paciest. The problem for Southampton though, is that Boruc is a doubt to start in goal, potentially leaving the responsibility with 37-year-old Kelvin Davis. Red Devils to scrape a 2-1 win, which will draw them a little closer to the Champions League places.

Stoke vs. West Brom

Amalfitano in form

After what was a positive first few weeks for Stoke under Mark Hughes, they’ve now lost three on the bounce, and sit with a cluster of teams outside the relegation zone on goal difference. The concerning thing for Hughes will be that two of the teams they’ve lost to, have been two of the teams they’re level on points with – Norwich and Fulham. It’s been the opposite scenario for West Brom. After the first three weeks they had just the one point, but a massive 3-0 win over Sunderland got their season up and running, they then had the confidence to take four points from United and Arsenal. Amalfitano on the right side is playing full of confidence at the moment, with two goals and two assists already this season. The contrasting form these teams are in, I could see West Brom walking back into the Midlands with all three points. 0-1.

Swansea vs. Sunderland

How will Poyet fare as Sunderland boss?

With his new side already six points adrift of safety, Gus Poyet has an unenviable task of keeping Sunderland in the Premier League. It’s one which, at the moment, I wouldn’t back him to succeed in. He did do a great job at Brighton before the controversial sacking, taking them from a struggling League One team to finishing fourth in the Championship. But he’s never managed in the Premier League before, and with Sunderland having brought in so many new players and coaches over the past few months, he’s got a massive job to galvanize everyone. Swansea are down to fifteenth and among that group of teams on the seven points bracket, but it’s worth noting they’ve already played four of last season’s top six in their first seven games. Wilfried Bony hasn’t scored a league goal since the opening day, he needs to break his duck for the Swans, who paid £12 million for him this summer. It’s very much an unknown how Poyet’s arrival will affect Sunderland, so I’ll sit on the fence with a 1-1.

West Ham vs. Man City

Will City miss Captain Kompany?

West Ham lost none of their home games against the top three clubs last season, which suggests that the team is very much psyched up when the big clubs visit. They will be buoyed by that 3-0 win at rivals Tottenham last time, so this has the look of a very difficult game for Man City. The Citizens will have a lot of players returning from international duty this weekend, as well as a Champions League trip to Russia coming up. Vincent Kompany is a doubt, although whether he plays might not make as big a difference as some suggest; in the five games the Belgian has started, Man City have conceded eight goals, as opposed to the three conceded from four games when he hasn’t. Carlton Cole arrives on a short-term deal, but having been a free agent, he will lack match fitness and is unlikely to have much of an impact. Only four teams came away from Upton Park with a win last season, and after the euphoria of last week, I’d back West Ham to dig out a result. 1-1.

Aston Villa vs. Tottenham

Bad result last week for AVB's side

Villa have taken seven points from their last three league games, and that’s been without the influential Christian Benteke, who may return for this match. Paul Lambert has guided Villa back into the top half after they had briefly suffered three straight defeats, some decent midfield performances from Fabian Delph being key. There’s a danger that the international break came at the wrong time for Tottenham, following that 3-0 home defeat to West Ham. It denied them the opportunity to bounce back quickly, so some of the players might have stewed over it too much. Villas-Boas urgently needs to get the best out of £26 million man Roberto Soldado, who is yet to score since the second match of the season. Villa haven’t kept a Premier League clean sheet at home since December 2012, but away ones against Norwich and Hull suggest that that record is due to end. 1-0.

Crystal Palace vs. Fulham

Holloway's side in trouble

Palace’s only points so far have come in the win over Sunderland, and following four straight defeats by two goal margins, they’re looking like a relegation banker. If they lose on Monday night, there’s a strong possibility that they’ll get cut adrift from the teams currently on seven points, seeing as Swansea and Stoke are playing at home. Fulham beat Stoke thanks to a late strike from Darren Bent last time, it was a big result for Martin Jol, who looked to be struggling under pressure in the weeks leading up to that game. I’d tip Palace to get a goal from a set piece, because they have a lot of height in their team, whilst defending free-kicks and corners has been one of Fulham’s weaknesses so far. This has the look of a 1-1 draw.

The Championship

Blackpool vs. Wigan

Stadium ban for Ince

Paul Ince begins his five match stadium ban on Saturday, over allegations of violent conduct on the fourth official in Blackpool’s game at Bournemouth a few weeks ago. Ince’s response to the ban has been a little bit ‘having your cake and eating it’ - he’s described the ban as harsh, he’s said a few things in the report were untrue, yet he hasn’t publicly apologised or clarified anything, simply ‘vowed to remain passionate’. It’s not good enough, and as a player you would want your manager to take more responsibility. All this has come at the wrong time for Blackpool, who are now without a win in five, and could be slipping down the table. The international break has come at a good time for Wigan, because it gives their players a slight breather to recover from a hectic fixture schedule - and prepare for another one. They’ve now got seven matches in the space of twenty three days. Wigan have lost all three of their away matches whilst Blackpool are unbeaten at home, but with a cloud hanging over Blackpool at the moment, this match might well break the trend. 0-2.

Barnsley vs. Middlesbrough

Flitcroft's side has played some tough games

Having won just one game out of eleven, and with a defence that’s leaking goals, it seems easy to write off Barnsley. But so far this season, they’ve already played six of the top seven teams, plus Wigan on the opening day when they didn’t have a fixture pile-up. Whereas, six of their next seven opponents are currently in the bottom ten, so now is the time to see whether the Tykes have the ability to avoid the drop again. They are only two points away from safety, and could very easily climb out of the relegation zone with a win, and that could change everything. Middlesbrough got a convincing 4-1 win over Yeovil last week, a rarity for Boro – beforehand they hadn’t won a game by more than one goal since December 2012. This one might be a 1-1 draw.

Blackburn vs. Charlton

Hanley suspended

Normally I would go on the 12-place gap in the table, Blackburn’s strong home record, and Charlton having only taken two points from five away games this season. But what deters me from writing this off as a comfortable win for Blackburn, is concerns over the fitness of Jordan Rhodes. The prolific Scotsman, whose goals alone have contributed to more than half of Blackburn’s tally this season, suffered a groin injury on international duty. In addition, Grant Hanley faces a ban having been sent off in the defeat at Wigan, so Matt Kilgallon will be drafted in having only played once this season. Charlton are without a win for six games, having only scored one goal in their last four games. But even with top scorer Kermorgant likely to be on the bench, there is an opportunity for someone like Simon Church to start scoring. Every weekend there’s always at least three or four surprise results in the Championship and I think this might be one of them. 0-1.

Bolton vs. Sheff Wed

Bolton got a first win before the break

Finally. A first win of the season for Bolton and Dougie Freedman at the eleventh time of asking, with the quality in the squad they should go on a run of wins to move themselves away from danger now. Can they still make the play-offs? It’s not impossible, nothing is in the Championship, but they would need to be extremely consistent from now on. Going by the tally of most teams who have finished 6^th in the past, they would need to pick up around sixty-five points from thirty-five games. After Bolton’s victory, it is Sheffield Wednesday who remain the only team yet to win, despite having been in the lead six times this season. They’ve drawn 1-1 in five of their last eight games, which would normally suggest a relegation-threatened team isn’t doing too badly, yet Wednesday have a poor mentality when it comes to seeing games out. Without that first win to build confidence, there’s a danger that these draws will gradually seep into a series of defeats. With Bolton having been boosted by their first win, and Wednesday seeming a little short of confidence, I’d fancy Bolton to win and push themselves a little closer to mid-table. Barnsley away next week is a massive game for Dave Jones’ Owls. 2-0.

Ipswich vs. Burnley

Can Ings and Vokes be stopped?

I realise I have said this most weeks, but Burnley’s reality check must come sooner or later. The Clarets have been very strong on the break this season, defending stubbornly before getting the ball forward quickly, so Ings and Vokes can do the damage. But interestingly, in their last three away games their opponents haven’t used wide men, which has perhaps been a factor in their success. It has left the opposing fullbacks isolated, and Burnley have been able to exploit this with their pace. But Ipswich only ever play with an orthodox 4-4-2, with hardworking, James Milner-like wide midfielders who track back. In addition, Tommy Smith and Christophe Berra have already formed a strong partnership in central defence, so this might be the afternoon that Ings and Vokes are kept fairly quiet. Ipswich have won each of their last three home games - Burnley might well slip up here. 2-1.

Leicester vs. Huddersfield

Will Dyer exploit Huddersfield's gaps?

After being one of the early season surprise packages, Huddersfield are now without a win in four, and looking mid-table material for the season. They’ve operated a 3-5-2 system for most games so far, and the gap on the flanks could be a problem against Leicester, with the pace of wingers Anthony Knockaert and Lloyd Dyer. Leicester got a surprise defeat at Doncaster before the break, leaving them three points off the automatic spots, but they’ve won four home games on the spin and I would expect this to make it five. 3-1.

Millwall vs. QPR

Chevanton in contention

This shouldn’t be a problem for QPR. At the start of the season I was skeptical about their promotion chances, but now they have to be favourites to go up. Charlie Austin is starting to get among the goals, having scored four in his last three, and the Rs simply don’t stop churning out the clean sheets. As for Millwall, a surprising run of three straight wins came crashing to an end with 4-0 and 5-2 away defeats to Birmingham and Bournemouth respectively. When Millwall start conceding in games, they often end up falling apart, as they’ve conceded three or more goals on four occasions this season. This makes me think that this will be QPR’s first goal glut of the season. In the first few weeks, it was about grinding out those 1-0 wins, but they’ve won 2-0 in their previous games. With their attacking options, also new boy Javier Chevanton available on the bench, QPR might win this at a canter. 0-4.

Nottm Forest vs. Bournemouth

Forest have quality in midfield

Two testing trips to the East Midlands awaits a Bournemouth side who turned over a two goal deficit against Millwall, and ran out 5-2 winners. The Cherries will be pleased with that result, but interestingly, they haven’t taken a single point off any team in the top eleven, which makes me think Forest might be a bit too much for them. Billy Davies’ side have taken thirteen points from five home matches this season, and the positive for them is that their goals are very widespread – they don’t rely on a James Vaughan or a Jordan Rhodes. Bournemouth often start by pressing teams high up the pitch and they may make life difficult for Forest’s defence, but the quality the home side have in midfield should see them through in this one. 3-1.

Reading vs. Doncaster

Reading board looking uncertain

Reading have kept three consecutive clean sheets at home, and are looking quite solid at the Madejski. There has been a lot of uncertainty regarding the ownership of the club recently, with Russian businessman Zingarevich taking a long time to complete a full takeover. Whilst this type of uncertainty is not ideal for the players, it shouldn’t prove too much of a distraction, because in John Madejski they have a chairman who has the club’s best interests at heart. Doncaster have lost Federico Macheda to injury, he returns to Man United now and it’s very bad timing for both parties, as the Italian had scored three goals in five appearances. Doncaster have been difficult to break down this season so this won’t be an easy game for the Royals, but with a some decent attacking options on the bench they might nick it 1-0.

Watford vs. Derby

Good start for McClaren

Goals are guaranteed in this clash, as two teams with the most, and joint-second most number of goals scored go head-to-head. For Watford, three points from two difficult away games before the international break is a reasonable return, and they have no injury problems going into this game. Derby got off to a good start to life under McClaren with a 3-1 win over Leeds, but it’s important they follow that up. Some consistent results and investment in the defence in January is required for them to make a play-off push. Both teams have shown that they can score goals so far these season, so this strikes me as a high-scoring, 2-2 draw.

Yeovil vs. Brighton

Brighton loan Lita

Yeovil are yet to pick up a single point at Huish Park this season, which will be a worry for Gary Johnson. Most teams who are promoted can rely on having a strong home form, Yeovil just don’t have it at the moment, and as the lowest-scoring team, they’ve only got one player in the squad with more than one goal. Brighton aren’t exactly flying either, having taken only one point from their last three games, although Leroy Lita has been brought in on a short-term loan to fill the boots of Leandro Ulloa. Yeovil have got to get their first home point of the season at some point, with Brighton out of form, they may get it here in a 1-1 draw.

Leeds vs. Birmingham

Leeds miss Becchio

The main factor in Leeds’ poor form seems be scoring goals. Since Becchio left in January, they’ve only hit the net thirty times in thirty-one league games, and only Yeovil have drawn more blanks than them this season. There are unlikely to be many goals in this game, as Birmingham haven’t scored in any of their last three away games, plus neither side play with two out and out wingers, so the game might be a little bogged down in the middle of the pitch. It’ll be a close game, but with Leeds out of form, if Birmingham can put in a decent defensive display they might snatch a draw, and add to Leeds' frustrations this season. 0-0.

An Interview for Leeds All Over

Ahead of Birmingham's match at Elland Road, I was asked a few questions by Leeds United based website LeedsAllOver...

Loss of Davies this summer

Firstly, how do you see Birmingham doing this season and do you consider yourself stronger or weaker than last season?

Difficult to say. On paper you might argue we’ve weakened ourselves, because we’re lower in the table now than where we finished last season, and we’ve lost a key defender in Curtis Davies. On the flip side, the games we’ve lost have been very tight contests, and against the teams who are aiming for promotion – notably Watford, Leicester, QPR and Reading. Because of the financial situation at the club, we’ve had to change the makeup of the squad every summer since our relegation, and every season we’ve started relatively slowly, so I’m a believer that it always takes time for players to settle. This season we’ve converted to a three at the back system, which will help us in the long run. Will we finish higher than twelfth of last season? Maybe not, but performances have been encouraging – I firmly believe we’ll be a long way off the relegation places come the end of the season.

How have you been getting on this season? Obviously, we know the results but sometimes that doesn’t tell the whole story.

There are positives we can take from our first three months. The thing I like about the way we're playing is that every player on the pitch is playing their heart out for the team, the commitment and passion is always there. As a fan, that’s what I want to see. The problem has been scoring goals, and taking our chances at important times. The return from injury of Nikola Zigic might help us on that front, as hard as Lee Novak works off the ball, he doesn’t have that bit of confidence under pressure when he receives it. Having played in the Conference last season, Matt Green is unproven at this level. He needs to gradually ease his way into the team, and not have that immediate pressure of being our main goalscorer. I have high hopes for loanee Jesse Lingard, but I also have high doubts that we’ll keep him for much longer than another couple of months - a better team will soon want him on loan. On reflection, I’m quietly encouraged.

Divides opinion - Clark

What’s the general opinion of Lee Clark as your manager?

Some fans like him, some fans can’t take him seriously, some fans think the quality of manager won’t matter until we change the owners. The positives are: he’s attracted some decent players on a shoestring budget, hasn’t been afraid to give youth a chance, and he certainly got the best out of them in the second half of last season. With a terrible injury crisis, talk of relegation, and a large proportion of players from the academy forced into the spotlight, we hit almost play-off form and climaxed to a top half finish. Clark must take credit for that.

The negatives are: he’s not the most convincing in front of the media, can be a bit of an excuse merchant when it comes to certain incidents, makes the odd baffling comment and looks at the floor in a way which doesn’t always exude confidence. He’s something of a tactics tinkerer as well, chops and changes his team a lot, questionably swapping from 3 at the back to 4-4-2, seemingly based on a single bad result. He’s no miracle-worker, but personally I can see past his weaknesses, because he’s a very young manager and one of the few who wanted the job initially. He’ll grow into the role as well, and I sincerely hope that a new board would give him a chance, rather than walk in with their own agenda.

What’s the general opinion of Leeds United from a Birmingham City supporter?

I’ll be honest - a lot of Birmingham City fans hate you! I get the impression it’s mainly because of the ‘Dirty Leeds’ days. I don’t mind your lot though. When you came to St Andrews last time, you were probably the best away fans we saw all season, had a massive allocation and sang all game. In reality, our supporters could probably learn from the passionate fanbase of some of the northern clubs. There’s a slight culture of apathy around St Andrews at the moment. On the Don Revie era, the 60s/70s was long before I was born, but I feel hating a side because they’re dirty is a bit of an excuse to have a go at a good team. If Billy Bremner had played for Birmingham City, we would have all idolised him. That’s the nature of the game.

Key man - Burke

During the January transfer window and again last window we were linked to Chris Burke, do you consider him to be a good player and someone who is central to your team?

No. He’s a rubbish player. Really not worth buying.

Who should we look out for as your danger man?

In all seriousness, Burke is definitely our best player. Every time he gets the ball you have a feeling that he’ll do something magical with it, he scares the hell out of fullbacks and as a fan, he gets you to the edge of your seat. That said, I don’t think he would do it in the Premier League, where defenders are made of sterner stuff. He’s 30 now, so I feel the Championship is the right league for him. Whether that’s with Birmingham is another matter…

One player I haven’t mentioned is our goalkeeper, Darren Randolph. He has looked very reliable for us, had a great record up in Scotland with Motherwell, and at the age of 26, his best goalkeeping years are right ahead of him. Once Peter Pannu realises there might be a few hundred grand of a transfer fee in him though, he’ll probably be gone in January!

What formation will you likely play?

3-4-3. Clark started the season playing 3-5-2, which made us a lot more solid at the back, but the big dilemma was that we couldn’t fit Chris Burke into the team. He couldn’t have played wingback because he’s a natural winger, not defensive-minded enough. Clark made the right decision in my view, to play him instead of a second striker, as a right-sided forward cutting in. He also brought in Jesse Lingard to suit that system, and play a similar role on the left. If he uses this tactic consistently, hopefully the players will become accustomed to it and some more positive results will come.

What will be your likely line up?

Randolph

Zigic netted four at Elland Road

Spector-Burn-Robinson

Caddis-Adeyami-Reilly-Murphy

Burke-Zigic-Lingard

Not sure about the fitness levels of Murphy and Zigic, if not picked, they’ll probably be replaced by Shane Ferguson and Matt Green respectively. I certainly hope Zigic plays - in the 2011-12 season, five of his seven goals came against you!

Any players from Leeds that you would like to sign?

We could do with an ‘out-and-out’ goalscorer, but you don’t seem to have that yourselves! The obvious choice would be Ross McCormack, but we’ve already got a few players who play in his kind of position, in the hole. I would maybe say Luke Murphy, he looks like a good young player, and would add a physical presence to our midfield.

Finally, prediction for the game?

I would be content with a draw. You had one of the best home records in the Championship last season, so I think this will be a difficult game for us. The thing that stands out for me, is that we both play quite narrowly, and neither team has wingers, so the game could be a bit bogged down in the middle of the park. You’ve not really got a reliable goalscorer now Becchio has gone, and we’ve not scored in any of our last three away games. This has the look of a 0-0 draw for me.

My thanks to Stuart Footit for the questions.

Solihull Moors 4-0 Worksop Town: Match Report

Solihull Moors got a 4-0 win over Worksop Town on Saturday, to put themselves in the hat for the FA Cup fourth qualifying round draw. A brace from Ryan Beswick, and goals from Omar Bogle and Rob Elvins contributed to a scoreline which perhaps flattered the Moors, but it was their proficiency on the counter attack which was the main factor in the win.

Marcus Bignot made three changes from the team which drew at home to Bradford Park Avenue last week. According to the programme, Dom Langdon was starting as number two, but it appeared to be Junior English who the fans were referring to in that shirt during the game. In other changes, Gary Birch and Aron Wint were dropped to the bench in favour of Darryl Knights and Omar Bogle. The visitors from east of Sheffield had only booked their place in the round with a 5-3 win on Wednesday, in spite of a late rally from Shelley Town, four divisions below. On Saturday, they made four changes from that match, indicating Mark Shaw’s willingness to keep players fresh.

It was a clash between one of England’s oldest non-league clubs, and one of the youngest, with a massive 146 year gap between their respective foundings. Between the year Worksop Town were founded, 1861, and the year Solihull Moors were founded, 2007, England has had 40 different prime ministers.

Moors started much the brighter team, and in the opening minute, a Ryan Beswick cross from the left was fired just over by Omar Bogle. With such an attacking start from Solihull, it looked as though the gulf in age wouldn’t be the only one between the two teams. In the opening period, Moors favoured an adventurous passing game, preferring to get the ball to the flanks at the first opportunity, rather than pass to feet.

Jay Denny was to play an important, Michael Carrick-esque role in midfield, dropping deep to help the defence guard against Worksop attacks, and then spraying it out wide. He made up for one slightly overhit crossfield ball in the opening minutes, by contributing to the first goal. A through ball down the right for Peter Till to get the better of Phil Roe, and a dinked cross from him to the back post ended up finding Ryan Beswick, who nodded the ball home to give Solihull an early lead.

Shortly afterwards, Moors clenched their firm grip of the game, and searched for a second. A clever piece of play from Till won a free-kick, taken unexpectedly quickly by Bogle who found Till on the right, he gambled on an early cross but there unfortunately weren’t enough bodies forward. Worksop offered little in the way of creativity, particularly in the first fifteen minutes. They relied on a very tall and strong number nine in Tom Denton to spearhead their attacks, which were normally route one goal kicks from the keeper. A powerful snapshot from range by Shane Clarke, and a misdirected back-post header from Denton, was the closest Worksop came shortly after the goal.

On 20 minutes, a scrappy phase in the game then emerged where neither side’s play developed any real momentum, and the two teams kept giving the ball away. Darryl Knights looped a free-kick over the bar for the Moors, and shortly after Jay Denny’s shot was tipped wide by Hallam. As the rain began to pelt, Worksop continued their direct style of play, which forced a one-on-one save by Singh from Mettam. Singh was to go on to have a good game, but Solihull Moors deserved much credit for the way they defended, they looked a real unit at the back. The players never shirked their defensive duties, always crowded the box and normally restricted Worksop to long range efforts.

It was Moors who had the final say of the half. Worksop were given a warning when Till’s cross was scrambled goalwards and cleared off the line by Jordan Lemon, but his reflexes were to be in vain. Less than a minute later, a through ball from midfield found Bogle, who tucked it into the near corner. Bogle could consider himself a little lucky with the goal, because he didn’t do much else that afternoon. He struck me as not the hardest worker when it comes to work rate off the ball, but one who has that bit of quality when it matters. The half-time whistle sounded leaving the score at 2-0, and Worksop with a very difficult ask to crawl back into the FA Cup hat.

But The Tigers provided some encouragement for their 100-odd fans who made the trip over, with an improved performance after the restart. Whereas in the first half, their play was entirely route one, in the first ten minutes of the second, they upped the tempo, and had long spells of possession. Leon Mettam latched onto Pierpoint’s poorly placed pass, and forced another good save from Singh. At the age of 20, the goalkeeper looks to have potential to play in the Football League.

After a couple of dangerous headers from Denton, Worksop’s positive attacking play transcended into a series of counter attacks for Solihull. The visitors’ defence pressed high up the pitch, which inevitably allowed more space in behind for Solihull, with the pace of Beswick and substitute Aron Wint.

As much as Worksop continued to get the ball forward, from the 60 minute mark onwards, it was only ever Solihull who looked like scoring. Following a corner from the left, there was a scramble in the box and close-range efforts from Gough and Bogle forced a double save from the keeper. A comical moment from PA man Paul Collins, otherwise known as 'Gabbie Cabbie' shortly followed, getting the numbers of a Worksop substitute mixed up, before correcting himself! Not that Moors fans will have cared, because they had their third goal which killed off the tie, from Rob Elvins. A throw-in from the left found the feet of their captain, who hammered the ball home from just outside the six-yard box, and the Moors’ place in the next round was well and truly booked.

Once Singh had completed his afternoon’s work by forcing Tom Denton to dribble too far wide of the goal when one-on-one, it was only a question of how many for Solihull. And it was a case of three bites at the cherry for Beswick. Latching onto a clearance he found himself one-one-one with keeper Hallam, who saved his effort. But just a few minutes later, another scenario almost identical for the winger, a block from Hallam’s feet this time, before Beswick rolled the ball into an empty net to clinch a brace.

4-0, Moors now winning in style, and Gary Birch came on for Bogle, with the remaining minutes very much a foregone conclusion. Birch seemed to be a popular figure, as Gabbie announced him as ‘number 20, BIRRRRRRCHY!... Gary Birch.’ He came onto the pitch to enthusiastic applause and chants of ‘Birchy’s gonna get ya’. Looking at him, he was a rather stocky bloke, at first I was slightly surprised the fans had taken to him so much. But in terms of his reading of the game, he was very impressive; think a not-so-good Dimitar Berbatov and you won’t be too far off. His vision and awareness was spot on, in one of his first touches he executed a very well weighted pass to the opposite flank. On a counter attack, he found space outside the box to receive a cut-back from Wint, he layed-off a ball for Beswick, who had moved to the right, but his cross went unattended.

Admirably, the Worksop players still looked desperate to restore some minor credibility from the scoreline and grab a goal back, and they kept pluckily pushing men forward. But in the final 10 minutes, Wint’s pace as a fresh substitute became key to the Moors’ counter-attacking moves, and Worksop’s naivety at the back was nearly punished further. An excellent first touch, controlling the ball at height, confused Chris Salt and as he narrowed down on goal, his shot hit the near post.

The full-time whistle came at 4-0, with Moors through to the fourth qualifying round, although the scoreline perhaps didn’t reflect the whole story. Some humorous chants from fans in good spirits, of: “we’ll be running round Touchwood with the cup!” and also:

“we are unbeatable”. The Moors, and also Brackley Town, remain the only team unbeaten in Skrill North division, but in the next few weeks, they might just celebrating a run in the cup as well.

The Brilliance of Three at the Back

Alan Hansen was talking a bit of nonsense, as per usual, on Match of the Day 3 this week. The most interesting point, was when asked by Mark Chapman: "do you like three at the back?" (the tactical system). His answer, rather than being: "I don't like three at the back" was:

"I've never liked three at the back"

It's an interesting choice of words, because it typifies Hansen's 'fuddy-duddy' mentality. He has seemingly made his Match of the Day career by saying the same thing every week, and doesn't appear to want to learn or examine different approaches to football. It's as if he's allergic to foreign, new and downright better tactical systems than the 'good ol' fashioned, tight, no messing about 4-4-2'. 

The main thing he cited to justify his dislike for the three at the back system, was that most teams play with one up front now, therefore you need two defenders: one to mark, one to cover. If you have three centre-backs marking one player, you lose out in the middle of the pitch and get overrun. This analysis is so flawed, it genuinely made me laugh.

Firstly, to think that three defenders are only defending against one player is tactical naivety at it's finest. He stands firmly by his rigid principles of his Liverpool days, that everyone is still man-to-man marking. It's not true. It is common for teams recently to play with one 'out-and-out' striker, but simply because they have two or three attacking midfielders in behind. Either in a 4-5-1/4-3-3 with two inside forwards cutting in like at Barcelona, or in a 4-2-3-1 with three attacking midfielders designed to create like at Man City and Chelsea. Either of those formations tear the 4-4-2 to shreds, simply because of their flexibility, and flexibility is the key to success in modern football.

These are the advantages of back three formations:

1. You can incorporate three centre-backs

It's a common misconception about a 3-5-2 that it makes a team more vulnerable defensively. It's an understandable theory, because there is one less recognized defender, and what looks like a massive gap on either wing. Whilst exposure on the flanks is a limit of this system, it's not right to say that an opponent will get more crosses in; and therefore they'll score more goals. With three centre-backs, you can have one man marking the main striker, and two others picking up late runners from deep. This is where the 4-4-2 falls short, without an ultra defensive-minded midfielder (in which case the 4-4-2 would lose out in controlling the centre), because one defender marks the main striker. It leaves only one centre-back to pick runners up, forcing your fullback to move inside, thus creating space for an opposing attacking fullback on the other side. 

A side-product of having three centre-backs, is that the team is much more effective in the air, because defenders are naturally built to be big, strong men. More aerially duals will be won, which is especially useful in set piece situations, where the ball is nearly always whipped in high. For defending free kicks and corners, you have three very accomplished markers handy, and attacking them, your team will provide more of an aerial threat.

2. It can be surprisingly effective for counter-attacking

On paper, you wouldn't expect counter-attacking to be a theme of a 3-5-2. You associate with counter-attacks very direct football, so players will be spread out, wingers will hug the touchline to draw men out and create space in behind. The 3-5-2 seems to be the opposite of that, because there are three central midfielders bunched together, and wide men who look as though they have the defensive responsibility of a fullback, and so can't burst forward. With that in mind, the obvious approach is to be constantly looking to utilize the extra man in midfield, play a very patient, probing game, and only pass it out wide when the wing-backs are comfortable enough to get forward.

And indeed, some teams do do that, but it's not the only way the 3-5-2 works. I've already mentioned how having three centre backs does a lot to negate the threat of opponents running from midfield, and getting into the box unmarked, because there's normally a spare defender. This means that teams playing against the 3-5-2 know that to score, they have two choices. They can either try their luck from long range, which rarely succeeds and essentially gives the 3-5-2 team the ball back when the shot is unsuccessful.

But the second option is to attempt to overload the penalty area. This is where our 3-5-2 team can counter-attack to devastating effect. As the opponents push men forward from midfield, the 3-5-2 team has plenty of spare men in midfield, who can track back. Not only does this deny the opponents any space in the box, but it also relinquishes the defensive duty of the wing-backs. Therefore, when the opponents have an unsuccessful shot, the ball can be cleared quickly to the flanks.

All of a sudden, the opposing fullbacks who were initially looking to support the attack are backpedaling, and the 3-5-2 team has four men forward available to counter: the two wingbacks, and the two forward men. The perfect example of this, was when Watford played Bournemouth on the second match of the 13/14 Championship season. Bournemouth had 66% possession and controlled a lot of the game, but with the score at 3-1, they kept pushing men forward to try and get level, and Watford scored three goals from counter attacks. 

3. A numerical advantage in midfield

With three central midfielders, you always have a numbers in the middle of the park, which gives a team more tactical variability. Against a classic 4-4-2, two of your central midfielders can focus on their opponents, whilst there is a spare man available, which is a very big asset. This man can be used in a number of ways. Away from home against a top team where you'd perhaps settle for a point, you can use a defensive midfielder, someone who can break up attacks quickly and provide cover. Or a deep-lying midfielder, someone in the 'Pirlo role', who can use their knowhow to read the game, intercept passes and get the team moving.

Alternatively, if the manager wants to give his team a more adventurous look, the third man can be an attacking midfielder. This is also extremely useful against 4-4-2, because of the big gap between defence and midfield. An attacking midfielder can operate in the space, therefore he'll have time to wait for the wingbacks to break forward before spraying out wide. Or, he can run at the defence, draw a defender out and slip a through ball to one of the strikers. 

It's only one spare man in midfield, but that option is key to the flexibility of the 3-5-2. For a defensive midfielder, the team can convert to a 3-1-4-2, or for an attacking one, it can change to a 3-4-1-2 depending on how deep the other two midfielders chose to sit, and how far the wingbacks push forward. If a manager has both a defensive and attacking midfielder in the squad, it means the tactic can be altered with regard to different circumstances. Whereas with just a 4-4-2, there's no room for maneuver, because both central midfielders are forced to stay in their area. If they push too far forward to support the attack, the team gets overrun in midfield, if they sit too far back, the team loses a grip on the game. With three midfielders, there is a lot more choice.

4. Pressure on the ball

A variation of 3-5-2 which is likely to become popular in the next few years, is the 3-4-1-2. It's the three at the back ideologists' answer to the 4-2-3-1 formation, which has become used by a lot of the top clubs around Europe. If you have two midfielders sitting relatively deep, this makes the team very adaptable for any situation on the pitch. 

For example, if the left wing-back bombs forward with the ball, the left-sided deep midfielder can move over towards the left-back position to provide cover, should the wing-back give it away. Then, the right-sided deep midfielder can move towards the left, and the right wing-back can move inside and take up a more defensive responsibility. That way, the only circumstances in which the gaps in the team can be exploited should the left wing-back lose it, is if the opponent who tackled him switches a perfect crossfield ball to a winger on the opposite side. It takes a certain level of technical ability for a player to be able to do that, and it's unlikely that any defender could pull it off. Therefore, by the time the ball gets to a more technically proficient player on the opposition's team, the 3-4-1-2 side has time to re-assume it's default setup.

The key is, with a variation of the 3-5-2 tactic, players have freedom to move towards the ball in groups. Of course this opens up spaces elsewhere, but spaces on the opposite side of the pitch which only a player with a certain technical ability, can reach with one pass. Therefore, the system is excellent for teams who want to apply pressure on the ball.

5. Conclusion

With the three at the back system, a lot more teams have succeeded than failed. Hull and Watford did very well with it last season, finishing 2nd and 3rd respectively, a large proportion of their goals originating from their wing-backs. Juventus won the Serie A for two seasons in a row and reached the quarter-finals of the Champions League, while Italy reached the 2012 European Championships final with three at the back, only to tragically change it when they played Spain. With adventurous fullbacks in Glen Johnson and Luis Enrique in their squad, Liverpool have now gambled on a wingback system, and have started the season in excellent form.

It's a recurring problem in football that with the TV money available, more and more foreign chairmen get involved, not understanding how football works. They sack managers after a few bad results, so managers are constantly fearing for their jobs, and are less likely to try out a new tactical formation which will take time for players to get used to. Three at the back is a system which players will always take time to get used to, so not many managers want to put their jobs at risk. Interestingly, the five Championship managers who have been inspired by Hull and Watford's success last season to apply three at the back for their own club, are the managers who consider their job relatively safe. Zola has the same players who used it so well at Watford last season, David Flitcroft and Chris Powell are considered legends at Barnsley and Charlton respectively, whilst in their financial situation the Birmingham board are unlikely to sack Lee Clark and pay his compensation. Mark Robins at Huddersfield perhaps being the exception to the rule.

If chairmen have patience with their manager who want to use this system, and they maintain a consistent playing staff, the formation will definitely blossom. With tactical flexibility and numerical advantages in key areas, the three at the back tactic will grow ever more popular.