After an international break, here is another week of my predictions for this weekend's matches in the Premier League and the Championship.
Premier League
Newcastle vs. Liverpool
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| Liverpool romped to victory this fixture last season |
This fixture last season
was certainly a memorable one, as Liverpool played their first game with Luis
Suarez banned from the biting incident, and came away from St. James’s with a
remarkable 6-0 win. This time, they have Suarez back and currently sit
joint-top of the table with Arsenal, although they will have a difficult job to
stay there much longer. Since their home defeat to Southamton, they’ve only
beaten the bottom two sides, Sunderland and Palace - hardly a measure of their
title credentials. Newcastle have got off to a mixed start, with three wins,
three defeats and a draw, the form of Loic Remy being key. Pardew has often
started him as an inside forward on the left, playing just behind Cisse, so far
that seems to have worked. Liverpool are unlikely to stay top for much longer,
whilst Newcastle’s win at Cardiff before the break will have reduced some of
the pressure on Alan Pardew, so Toon can take a 1-1 draw.
Arsenal vs. Norwich
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| Will Gnabry get a chance? |
The Gunners remain top of
the table, despite dropping points at West Brom before the internationals. The
man who has contributed three assists in four games, Mesut Ozil is a doubt for
this match, but either way Wenger shouldn’t be too concerned. They have
creativity in Santi Cazorla, whilst 18-year-old Serge Gnabry perhaps deserves a
chance, having impressed thus far. This is the start to a sequence of very
difficult away fixtures for Norwich, as the Canaries sit inside the relegation
zone on goal difference, but level on points with three other teams. From their
next three home games – Cardiff, West Ham and Palace – six points must be the
aim, because I can’t see them getting anything from the Emirates. 2-0.
Chelsea vs. Cardiff
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| Bertrand - Chelsea's weak spot? |
Chelsea’s one weakness on
Saturday could be down their left side, with the experienced Ashley Cole out
through injury, and Ryan Bertrand likely to get his first start of the season.
Cardiff like to attack down the right as well, they could cause dilemmas for an
aging John Terry, and David Luiz, who looked defensively naïve last season.
Cardiff have a lot of tall, physical players in their team whilst Chelsea are
relying on small, pretty technicians for creativity, and that might be a
problem as well. If this was at Cardiff and Chelsea were struggling for form, I
would be quite content to go for a draw. But this is at Stamford Bridge, and
Chelsea have won ten of their last eleven Premier League home games, and four
of their last five in all competitions. The chances are, the Blues will win
this in the end. 3-1.
Everton vs. Hull
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| Barry returns |
Gareth Barry will return
to Everton’s midfield, after loan restrictions meant that he couldn’t play
against parent club Man City two weeks ago. The experienced ex-Villa man has
been an important part of the Toffees’ good start to the season, likewise
Romelu Lukaku, who already has four goals to his name. Hull are only one point
and place behind their opponents, having already kept three clean sheets from
their first seven Premier League games, a massive achievement for newly-promoted
club. But I feel they’re due a bit of a reality check, which seems to happen to
most promoted sides when they’ve got off to a good start in the top flight. In
recent games, Hull have played with two narrow banks of four, Everton have a
lot of width in Coleman and Baines, who will really stretch Hull. I could see
the Tigers having a rare bad day at the office, and Everton running away with
this 3-0.
Man Utd vs. Southampton
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| Adnan - United's future star? |
With the stakes so high
at Sunderland, David Moyes deserves some credit for gambling on Adnan Januzaj,
and he was rewarded. But it’s important United fans don’t get too overexcited
about Januzaj. He’s played well so far but he’s only started one match, it
would be dangerous for Man Utd to pin their hopes on an 18-year-old. Anything
other than three points would be a disaster for the Red Devils, which is a
worry, because they play a Southampton team who are up to fourth, and have kept
five consecutive clean sheets in all competitions. Southampton play with a high
tempo, and that might make it a difficult game for United’s aging defence, plus
Carrick and Fellaini aren’t the paciest. The problem for Southampton though, is
that Boruc is a doubt to start in goal, potentially leaving the responsibility
with 37-year-old Kelvin Davis. Red Devils to scrape a 2-1 win, which will draw
them a little closer to the Champions League places.
Stoke vs. West Brom
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| Amalfitano in form |
After what was a positive
first few weeks for Stoke under Mark Hughes, they’ve now lost three on the
bounce, and sit with a cluster of teams outside the relegation zone on goal
difference. The concerning thing for Hughes will be that two of the teams
they’ve lost to, have been two of the teams they’re level on points with –
Norwich and Fulham. It’s been the opposite scenario for West Brom. After the
first three weeks they had just the one point, but a massive 3-0 win over Sunderland
got their season up and running, they then had the confidence to take four
points from United and Arsenal. Amalfitano on the right side is playing full of
confidence at the moment, with two goals and two assists already this season.
The contrasting form these teams are in, I could see West Brom walking back
into the Midlands with all three points. 0-1.
Swansea vs. Sunderland
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| How will Poyet fare as Sunderland boss? |
With his new side already
six points adrift of safety, Gus Poyet has an unenviable task of keeping
Sunderland in the Premier League. It’s one which, at the moment, I wouldn’t
back him to succeed in. He did do a great job at Brighton before the
controversial sacking, taking them from a struggling League One team to
finishing fourth in the Championship. But he’s never managed in the Premier League
before, and with Sunderland having brought in so many new players and coaches
over the past few months, he’s got a massive job to galvanize everyone. Swansea
are down to fifteenth and among that group of teams on the seven points
bracket, but it’s worth noting they’ve already played four of last season’s top
six in their first seven games. Wilfried Bony hasn’t scored a league goal since
the opening day, he needs to break his duck for the Swans, who paid £12 million
for him this summer. It’s very much an unknown how Poyet’s arrival will affect
Sunderland, so I’ll sit on the fence with a 1-1.
West Ham vs. Man City
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| Will City miss Captain Kompany? |
West Ham lost none of
their home games against the top three clubs last season, which suggests that
the team is very much psyched up when the big clubs visit. They will be buoyed
by that 3-0 win at rivals Tottenham last time, so this has the look of a very
difficult game for Man City. The Citizens will have a lot of players returning
from international duty this weekend, as well as a Champions League trip to
Russia coming up. Vincent Kompany is a doubt, although whether he plays might
not make as big a difference as some suggest; in the five games the Belgian has
started, Man City have conceded eight goals, as opposed to the three conceded
from four games when he hasn’t. Carlton Cole arrives on a short-term deal, but
having been a free agent, he will lack match fitness and is unlikely to have
much of an impact. Only four teams came away from Upton Park with a win last
season, and after the euphoria of last week, I’d back West Ham to dig out a
result. 1-1.
Aston Villa vs. Tottenham
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| Bad result last week for AVB's side |
Crystal Palace vs. Fulham
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| Holloway's side in trouble |
Palace’s only points so
far have come in the win over Sunderland, and following four straight defeats
by two goal margins, they’re looking like a relegation banker. If they lose on
Monday night, there’s a strong possibility that they’ll get cut adrift from the
teams currently on seven points, seeing as Swansea and Stoke are playing at
home. Fulham beat Stoke thanks to a late strike from Darren Bent last time, it
was a big result for Martin Jol, who looked to be struggling under pressure in
the weeks leading up to that game. I’d tip Palace to get a goal from a set
piece, because they have a lot of height in their team, whilst defending
free-kicks and corners has been one of Fulham’s weaknesses so far. This has the
look of a 1-1 draw.
The Championship
Blackpool vs. Wigan
Paul Ince begins his five match stadium
ban on Saturday, over allegations of violent conduct on the fourth official in
Blackpool’s game at Bournemouth a few weeks ago. Ince’s response to the ban has
been a little bit ‘having your cake and
eating it’ - he’s described the ban as harsh, he’s said a few things in the
report were untrue, yet he hasn’t publicly apologised or clarified anything,
simply ‘vowed to remain passionate’. It’s not good enough, and as a player you
would want your manager to take more responsibility. All this has come at the
wrong time for Blackpool, who are now without a win in five, and could be
slipping down the table. The international break has come at a good time for
Wigan, because it gives their players a slight breather to recover from a
hectic fixture schedule - and prepare for another one. They’ve now got seven
matches in the space of twenty three days. Wigan have lost all three of their
away matches whilst Blackpool are unbeaten at home, but with a cloud hanging
over Blackpool at the moment, this match might well break the trend. 0-2.
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| Stadium ban for Ince |
Barnsley vs. Middlesbrough
Having won just one game out of
eleven, and with a defence that’s leaking goals, it seems easy to write off
Barnsley. But so far this season, they’ve already played six of the top seven
teams, plus Wigan on the opening day when they didn’t have a fixture pile-up. Whereas,
six of their next seven opponents are currently in the bottom ten, so now is
the time to see whether the Tykes have the ability to avoid the drop again.
They are only two points away from safety, and could very easily climb out of the
relegation zone with a win, and that could change everything. Middlesbrough got
a convincing 4-1 win over Yeovil last week, a rarity for Boro – beforehand they
hadn’t won a game by more than one goal since December 2012. This one might be
a 1-1 draw.
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| Flitcroft's side has played some tough games |
Blackburn vs. Charlton
Normally I would go on the 12-place
gap in the table, Blackburn’s strong home record, and Charlton having only
taken two points from five away games this season. But what deters me from writing
this off as a comfortable win for Blackburn, is concerns over the fitness of
Jordan Rhodes. The prolific Scotsman, whose goals alone have contributed to
more than half of Blackburn’s tally this season, suffered a groin injury on
international duty. In addition, Grant Hanley faces a ban having been sent off
in the defeat at Wigan, so Matt Kilgallon will be drafted in having only played
once this season. Charlton are without a win for six games, having only scored
one goal in their last four games. But even with top scorer Kermorgant likely
to be on the bench, there is an opportunity for someone like Simon Church to
start scoring. Every weekend there’s always at least three or four surprise
results in the Championship and I think this might be one of them. 0-1.
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| Hanley suspended |
Bolton vs. Sheff Wed
Finally. A first win of the
season for Bolton and Dougie Freedman at the eleventh time of asking, with the
quality in the squad they should go on a run of wins to move themselves away
from danger now. Can they still make the play-offs? It’s not impossible, nothing
is in the Championship, but they would need to be extremely consistent from now
on. Going by the tally of most teams who have finished 6th in the
past, they would need to pick up around sixty-five points from thirty-five
games. After Bolton’s victory, it is Sheffield Wednesday who remain the only
team yet to win, despite having been in the lead six times this season. They’ve
drawn 1-1 in five of their last eight games, which would normally suggest a
relegation-threatened team isn’t doing too badly, yet Wednesday have a poor
mentality when it comes to seeing games out. Without that first win to build
confidence, there’s a danger that these draws will gradually seep into a series
of defeats. With Bolton having been boosted by their first win, and Wednesday
seeming a little short of confidence, I’d fancy Bolton to win and push
themselves a little closer to mid-table. Barnsley away next week is a massive
game for Dave Jones’ Owls. 2-0.
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| Bolton got a first win before the break |
Ipswich vs. Burnley
I realise I have said this most
weeks, but Burnley’s reality check must come sooner or later. The Clarets have
been very strong on the break this season, defending stubbornly before getting
the ball forward quickly, so Ings and Vokes can do the damage. But
interestingly, in their last three away games their opponents haven’t used wide
men, which has perhaps been a factor in their success. It has left the opposing fullbacks isolated, and Burnley have been able to exploit this with their
pace. But Ipswich only ever play with an orthodox 4-4-2, with hardworking,
James Milner-like wide midfielders who track back. In addition, Tommy Smith and
Christophe Berra have already formed a strong partnership in central defence, so this might be the afternoon that Ings and Vokes are kept fairly quiet. Ipswich
have won each of their last three home games - Burnley might well slip up here. 2-1.
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| Can Ings and Vokes be stopped? |
Leicester vs. Huddersfield
After being one of the early
season surprise packages, Huddersfield are now without a win in four, and looking
mid-table material for the season. They’ve operated a 3-5-2 system for most
games so far, and the gap on the flanks could be a problem against Leicester,
with the pace of wingers Anthony Knockaert and Lloyd Dyer. Leicester got a
surprise defeat at Doncaster before the break, leaving them three points off
the automatic spots, but they’ve won four home games on the spin and I would
expect this to make it five. 3-1.
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| Will Dyer exploit Huddersfield's gaps? |
Millwall vs. QPR
This shouldn’t be a problem for
QPR. At the start of the season I was skeptical about their promotion chances,
but now they have to be favourites to go up. Charlie Austin is starting to get
among the goals, having scored four in his last three, and the Rs simply don’t
stop churning out the clean sheets. As for Millwall, a surprising run of three
straight wins came crashing to an end with 4-0 and 5-2 away defeats to
Birmingham and Bournemouth respectively. When Millwall start conceding in
games, they often end up falling apart, as they’ve conceded three or more goals
on four occasions this season. This makes me think that this will be QPR’s
first goal glut of the season. In the first few weeks, it was about grinding
out those 1-0 wins, but they’ve won 2-0 in their previous games. With their
attacking options, also new boy Javier Chevanton available on the bench, QPR
might win this at a canter. 0-4.
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| Chevanton in contention |
Nottm Forest vs. Bournemouth
Two testing trips to the East
Midlands awaits a Bournemouth side who turned over a two goal deficit against
Millwall, and ran out 5-2 winners. The Cherries will be pleased with that
result, but interestingly, they haven’t taken a single point off any team in
the top eleven, which makes me think Forest might be a bit too much for them.
Billy Davies’ side have taken thirteen points from five home matches this
season, and the positive for them is that their goals are very widespread –
they don’t rely on a James Vaughan or a Jordan Rhodes. Bournemouth often start
by pressing teams high up the pitch and they may make life difficult for Forest’s
defence, but the quality the home side have in midfield should see them through in this
one. 3-1.
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| Forest have quality in midfield |
Reading vs. Doncaster
Reading have kept three consecutive
clean sheets at home, and are looking quite solid at the Madejski. There has
been a lot of uncertainty regarding the ownership of the club recently, with Russian
businessman Zingarevich taking a long time to complete a full takeover. Whilst
this type of uncertainty is not ideal for the players, it shouldn’t prove too
much of a distraction, because in John Madejski they have a chairman who has
the club’s best interests at heart. Doncaster have lost Federico Macheda to
injury, he returns to Man United now and it’s very bad timing for both parties,
as the Italian had scored three goals in five appearances. Doncaster have been
difficult to break down this season so this won’t be an easy game for the
Royals, but with a some decent attacking options on the bench they might nick
it 1-0.
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| Reading board looking uncertain |
Watford vs. Derby
Goals are guaranteed in this
clash, as two teams with the most, and joint-second most number of goals scored
go head-to-head. For Watford, three points from two difficult away games before
the international break is a reasonable return, and they have no injury
problems going into this game. Derby got off to a good start to life under
McClaren with a 3-1 win over Leeds, but it’s important they follow that up. Some
consistent results and investment in the defence in January is required for
them to make a play-off push. Both teams have shown that they can score goals
so far these season, so this strikes me as a high-scoring, 2-2 draw.
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| Good start for McClaren |
Yeovil vs. Brighton
Yeovil are yet to pick up a
single point at Huish Park this season, which will be a worry for Gary Johnson.
Most teams who are promoted can rely on having a strong home form, Yeovil just
don’t have it at the moment, and as the lowest-scoring team, they’ve only got
one player in the squad with more than one goal. Brighton aren’t exactly flying
either, having taken only one point from their last three games, although Leroy
Lita has been brought in on a short-term loan to fill the boots of Leandro
Ulloa. Yeovil have got to get their first home point of the season at some
point, with Brighton out of form, they may get it here in a 1-1 draw.
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| Brighton loan Lita |
Leeds vs. Birmingham
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| Leeds miss Becchio |
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