Believe it or not, we are now
two-thirds of the way through this Championship season, and the preverbal
‘business end’ starts now. In recent seasons, the run-in has seen Barnsley make
the great escape, it has seen Reading storm to the title, and Blackpool get
that last play-off spot to ultimately go up under Ian Holloway. Those moments
are now in the making, as managers are preparing the players for that final
push towards their goals. So far, it is fair to say that the Championship has
not quite been at its unpredictable, dramatic best. But with teams now
desperate for points, that is sure to change in the following three months.
Here’s how I see things going with the race for the play-offs, in part two of
three instalments.
On the basis that QPR are more
likely to compete for automatic promotion than drop out of the play-offs, there
are two spots left. Nottingham Forest and Reading have held them for long
periods, yet in-form Wigan have entered the fray since the appointment of Uwe
Rosler, and they have climbed in at Reading’s expense. A Spanish-themed Brighton
side are another team who have improved since the run-up to Christmas, while
Blackburn remain contenders, but need to win more away from home.
Blackburn
 |
| Jordan Rhodes |
Pos 10th
Pld 32
GD -1
Pts 46
Estimated Points Required (EPR) 26pts/14
games
Why will they reach the play-offs?
In the first half of the season, they were very reliant on striker
Jordan Rhodes, who had scored around half of their goals. Now, that is no
longer the case, as recent arrivals Rudy Gestede and Craig Conway have played
well since the turn of the year. They have only lost one of their last nine
games at Ewood Park, and have the second best home defensive record in the
division. The team spirit factor is definitely there, as manager Gary Bowyer
worked with a lot of the current players when he was in charge of Blackburn’s
Development Squad. A January window without selling Rhodes will have helped
their cause.
Why won’t they reach the play-offs?
Or will it? Jordan Rhodes has now not scored since New Year’s Day. You
might argue that what caused such a successful first half, was that he was
playing for a January move to the Premier League, yet now he seems to have lost
that extra motivation. Generally, the team is still very young. Only Scott Dann
and David Dunn have significant Premier League experience, and there are not
many players in the squad who you would identify as a leader in the dressing
room. The fact that they have never won more than two games back-to-back,
suggests a lack of focus is a problem.
Verdict
They clearly have a talented squad with much potential, but they have
never developed any real momentum this season. They may fall short, for want of
a couple more experienced players who can create a consistent, strong mentality
within the squad. If they don’t go up, Gary Bowyer’s dealings this summer will
be key. Miss out.
Brighton
 |
| David Lopez |
Pos 8th
Pld 32
GD +7
Pts 49
EPR 26 pts/14 games
Why will they reach the play-offs?
They can keep the ball. They have the second best average possession %
in the Championship, and the success of Barcelona and Spain over the last few
years suggests that possession is the way forward. For Brighton, this has
partly contributed to their impressive defensive record, as only QPR and
Burnley have conceded less goals. The recent arrival of Jesse Lingard could
give them a little bit extra energy going forward, and Leandro Ulloa is also
firing at the moment. They got off to a bad start, arguably due to the
unsettling nature of Gus Poyet’s sacking, yet morale is no longer a problem.
Had the season started in November, Brighton would be 5th.
Why won’t they reach the play-offs?
Goals. They have only scored six of them in nine games since the turn
of the year, and Brighton have not always managed to convert possession into
good scoring opportunities. They have perhaps lacked creativity. Attacking
midfielder David Lopez has not been as impressive as he was last season, while
Will Buckley, Andrea Orlandi, and attacking fullback Inigo Calderon, have all
struggled to stay fit. Ashley Barnes, a decent back-up striker, has been sold,
meaning Brighton are now particularly reliant on the form and fitness of
Leandro Ulloa.
Verdict
They still have a game in hand on a few teams, and are yet to play
Reading and Nottingham Forest, the latter on the final day. Those matches could
prove decisive. With Leandro Ulloa starting to fire again, I’ve got a feeling
they’ll make it. In.
Nottm Forest
 |
| Jamie Paterson |
Pos 5th
Pld 33
GD +15
Pts 55
EPR 19 pts/13 games
Why will they make the play-offs?
They are in there at the moment, and have a four point gap between
themselves and 7th. At the beginning of the season, many people
tipped them for automatic promotion, given their squad’s strength in depth. In
Jamie Paterson, they have a very talented attacking player capable of scoring
goals. Between December and mid-February, Forest went on a thirteen game
unbeaten run, so they just need to rediscover their form.
Why won’t they reach the play-offs?
Injuries. Many of the players who contributed to that run, most
notably Andy Reid, Jack Hobbs and Henri Lansbury, are all sidelined - until the
end of the season in some cases. Manager Billy Davies has been given a five
game touchline ban, for his behaviour towards match official at half-time in
the game against Leicester. This creates unnecessary press attention for the
team, and the fact that meanwhile, the club is making sizeable financial losses,
will do nothing to ease the pressure.
Verdict
A bit of a surprise this, but I think they’ll hit a bad run of form
and slip out of the play-offs. They have lost too many key players through
injury, and the quality of their team is not the same proposition it was in
January. Off the field issues will be a hindrance as well, and Forest could get
into a dangerous cycle of downward momentum. Miss out.
Reading
 |
| Alex McCarthy |
Pos 7th
Pld 33
GD +13
Pts 51
EPR 23 pts/15 games
Why will they make the play-offs?
On their day, Reading have the ability to obliterate teams at the Madejski,
as Doncaster, Bolton and Blackpool have found to their cost. A front pairing of
Pavel Pogrebnyak and Adam Le Fondre can be clinical at times in front of goal,
and goalkeeper Alex McCarthy has been talked about as a future England no.1. Reading
have one of the Championship’s most creative players in Gareth McCleary on the
right wing, while Royston Drenthe is still yet to show the talent that saw him
play almost fifty games for Real Madrid. The potential in the team is there.
Why won’t they make the play-offs?
Nigel Adkins is working with of the Championship’s younger squads, and
perhaps the team is lacking in experience. Similarly to Blackburn, the side
lacks leadership, and captain Sean Morrison has been injured for long periods
of the season. The results they have picked up have been surprisingly
inconsistent, and the side has struggled to gain any momentum. One or two older
heads are needed.
Verdict
A hard one to call, given that the side is so unpredictable. It’s on a
knife edge, but they might just suffer from a lack of experience in the crunch
games, towards the end of the season. Miss
out.
Wigan
 |
| Uwe Rosler |
Pos 6th
Pld 32
GD +11
Pts 52
EPR 23 pts/16 games
Why will they make the play-offs?
Momentum. Results have been transformed since the appointment of Uwe
Rosler back in December. Under Owen Coyle, the Latics averaged below 1.4 points
per game, under Rosler, the average is over 2.1. Statistics indicate that if
Uwe Rosler had been in charge since August, they would be second. He has
undoubtedly got the best out of the midfield, with the likes of Jordi Gomez and
James McArthur starting to chip in, while three goals from six starts suggests Nicky
Maynard could be the goalscorer they need.
Why won’t they make the play-offs?
Could the new manager effect wear off? When a new boss is appointed,
it is relatively common for there to be a ‘honeymoon period’, which sees the
team improve results. Having already changed their manager, Wigan no longer
have that advantage. An injury to first team regular Ben Watson is far from
ideal.
Verdict
They will get in. The squad has a few midfielders who are capable of
replacing Watson, and the form they are in, it is difficult to see anyone
stopping them. In.
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