Tuesday 25 March 2014

Championship Weekend Reflections: 22nd March

Davies out, Warnock in?
Billy Davies
Nottingham Forest fell to a 5-0 defeat at the hands of East Midlands rivals Derby on Saturday’s lunchtime kick-off. It has been reported that Davies and his coaching staff have been absent from training this Monday morning, meaning his dismissal seems inevitable.

Nottingham Forest have spent in excess of £6 million this summer, and about another £4 million in January, so the manager can have few complaints. Some might argue that the squad has been hit by injuries, yet Davies is notorious for his overly physical training regimes. With an irregularly long injury list, you might wonder whether he is over-working players.

In terms of the Scot’s replacement, Neil Warnock is being lined up. He has won seven promotions in his managerial career and, in recent years, he has led Sheffield United and QPR into the Premier League. The Yorkshireman also has an impressive record in the play-offs. Four out of the five times he’s led his side into the play-offs, they have gone up. The one time he didn’t take a side up through the play-offs was with Sheffield United in 2003, and they reached the final on that occasion.

Warnock is not everyone’s ‘cup of tea’, and it would be a relatively short-term appointment, with the simple objective of getting the club promoted this season. He certainly has the experience of taking teams up a division, and his arrival could potentially fire up the Forest players. The board would be taking a risk by making this change, but with the team two points adrift of the play-offs, it is one they need to take.

Does Ipswich’s win paper over cracks?
Tommy Smith
The Tractor Boys won 2-0 away to Brighton, their first away victory since Boxing Day, thanks to second half goals from Tommy Smith and Daryl Murphy. However, this was not the best Ipswich performance, and the underlying factor was Brighton missing key chances.

The Seagulls had twenty-two shots, and no Championship side had more shots than them this weekend. This suggests that the clean sheet had more to do with Brighton’s lack of guile in the final third, than Ipswich being particularly organised. Luke Chambers, originally a centre-back, has struggled slightly in his role at right-back. Centre-back Tommy Smith has scored in both of their last two matches, yet he has looked slow defensively in both games. Last week, he was arguably at fault for two of Wigan’s goals and on Saturday, he might have been culpable, seeming to have a poor turn of pace.

Furthermore, the fact that Smith is Ipswich’s joint-third highest scorer, suggests a lack of goal threat in other areas. Their top goalscorer from midfield is Paul Anderson, who has netted just three goals, and no other midfielder at Ipswich has scored more than once this season. Up front, Mick McCarthy has been faced with an injury to top scorer David McGoldrick, and Ipswich lack an attacking threat in other areas. In recent matches, on average 53% of their play has gone down the left flank, mainly through full-back Aaron Cresswell. As talented as Cresswell is, he is still young and has dropped in form lately, with just one assist since the turn of the year. He is not good enough to be their main creative outlet, yet the team seems to be relying on him to make things happen.

A large proportion of Ipswich’s goals this season have come either via set pieces, or via looping crosses from deep on the left. More positive play in midfield will be required at Portman Road.
Promising times for neat passing Bournemouth
Lewis Grabban
Bournemouth kept themselves in the top half of the Championship table, after a late 1-0 win at Barnsley. The key to a successful first season in the Championship has been, quite simply, their players’ ability to pass to someone in the same coloured shirt.
The Cherries have had an average of 60% possession in recent matches. And at home, they have only failed to hold a majority in possession on three occasions. One of them was against Wigan back in August, a match they won, and the others were against two of the best possession teams in the league - Derby and Brighton. These Bournemouth players have taken to playing in the Championship with ease, and everyone in the team looks comfortable on the ball.
The main priority for manager Eddie Howe now, is to establish a good strike partner for Lewis Grabban. Both Tokelo Rantie and Yann Kermorgant were signed with this in mind, but neither have convinced thus far. The consensus amongst Bournemouth fans is that the club have been ripped off paying £2 million for Rantie, who lacks the strength to hold the ball up. Kermorgant, signed in January for an undisclosed fee, has much more of a physical presence. He scored a hat-trick against Doncaster, but his progress is being restricted by a heel injury. Bournemouth will need one of those two strikers to play in an advanced role. Although Lewis Grabban has netted fifteen times this season, he has tendencies to drift out wide and contribute to build up play, rather than lead the line.

Bournemouth play with quite technical, forward-minded fullbacks in Simon Francis and either Ian Harte or Charlie Daniels, which perhaps cost them defensively in the winter months. However, any concerns about a lack of organisation have been eradicated in recent weeks, as the Cherries have conceded just one goal in their last six matches. A big factor in this has been some strong performances from centre-back and captain Steve Cook, who netted the stoppage-time winner at Barnsley. Both Cook and Elphick are quite cultured defenders, in that they like to pass the ball short out from the back, and this has been key to Bournemouth’s possession game.

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