Saturday 28 December 2013

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Gameweek Twenty-Three

Premier League

This is the final round of Premier League games for 2013, in what looks to be a very open season at both ends of the table. There are just three points separating first from fourth in the title race, while the team in thirteenth is only three points away from the relegation zone, so plenty can change in the second half. This is yet another gameweek where two teams in the top four play, as Liverpool go to Chelsea, while Arsenal’s title credentials will be tested to the max at in-form Newcastle. We will see how the Cardiff team react to Malky Mackay’s sacking when they take on Sunderland, who may be bottom of the table, but recently got a shock win at Everton. 

West Ham vs. West Brom
Every team who was in the bottom three prior to Thursday’s games got a Boxing Day away win, and this has put West Ham in a vulnerable position. They were punished for missing two or three gilt-edged chances against Arsenal when a goal up, and conceded three goals in the last twenty minutes. The Hammers have three crunch games now. Trips to Fulham and Cardiff are coming up, but on Saturday they host a West Brom side in the process of appointing a new manager. The Baggies have somewhat halted the downward slide under caretaker manager Keith Downing, snatching a late equalizer against Hull and picking up a welcome point at Spurs. A third draw from three would suit the Baggies for now, but West Ham have won just one of their last eleven and that cannot continue. 1-1.

Aston Villa vs. Swansea
Problems have continued at Villa with a fourth consecutive defeat, but fans wanting Paul Lambert’s head are being too reactionary and short-sighted. It would be foolish to dismiss Lambert’s long-term plans for Villa over a few poor results, and the foreign players he has brought in this summer, such as Luna and Kozak, still need time to adjust. Swansea are not in the best form themselves, having won just one of their last eight in all competitions. They had most of the possession against Chelsea, but they seem to be lacking that extra spark of energy needed to create chances, when they have the ball. A draw would not be a bad result for either side. Swansea might settle for a point away from home, while Villa could do with simply stopping the cycle of defeats. 1-1.

Hull vs. Fulham
When Hull went 2-0 up against Man United after fifteen minutes, you might have fancied them to hold out. They had only conceded three goals at home up to that point, but they could not maintain their defensive record against the champions, due to a couple of basic errors. Fulham took their second win under the guidance of Rene Meulensteen, getting three points at Norwich thanks to a late belter from Scott Parker. Similarly to West Ham, Fulham have a key run of fixtures, with home games against the Hammers and Sunderland next up. The Cottagers have a good chance of taking three points here, too. Hull could be slightly demoralized by the defeat to United, while Fulham’s win at Norwich might just spark life into their season. 1-2.

Man City vs. Crystal Palace
This should be a comfortable win for Manchester City. However, from this game we might find out a little bit more about Manuel Pellegrini’s approach, and the team’s strength in depth. They go to Swansea on New Year’s Day, a team who try to drain the opposition by keeping hold of the ball. You wouldn’t necessarily want to go into that match having fielded a first choice eleven on the Saturday. This is where Pellegrini will earn his spurs by making judgement calls about certain fringe players who might deserve a run out, whilst also making sure they win the match. Crystal Palace climbed out of the bottom three for the first time since August with a win at Aston Villa, keeping a fifth clean sheet in eight games. A combination of Palace’s defensive strength and the possibility of Pellegrini rotating his side, means the scoreline might not be quite as emphatic as it normally is at the Etihad. 2-0.

Norwich vs. Man Utd
Norwich went down to a disappointing home defeat to Fulham, which keeps them only three points above the drop zone. If there is a positive for the Canaries, it is the form of Gary Hooper, who has scored four goals in his last six games and is beginning to repay the £5 million transfer fee. Man United have won their last five games in all competitions, but it is inaccurate to say that because of those results, they are back in the title race. The teams they have beaten are all bottom half opponents, and the Red Devils are still only seventh in the table. There are at least three teams who pose stronger threats at the moment. 1-2.

Cardiff vs. Sunderland
The inevitable has happened. After a 3-0 home loss to Southampton, Malky Mackay has been sacked as manager of Cardiff. This is a ‘chicken-and-egg’ situation, because the bad result came as a catalyst for the sacking. On the flip side, the players might have performed better if there was not this cloud of uncertainty hanging over them at the time, and Vincent Tan has not given Mackay a fair chance. The significance of Sunderland’s win at Everton remains to be seen. Gus Poyet’s side have kept three consecutive clean sheets, but on the other hand, they have failed to score six times in their last nine league games. The Black Cats need an experienced, proven striker in January, but if they are at the bottom you have to question who they would be able to attract, that would not rather go to a club in a safer position. The two teams are the joint-second-lowest scorers in the Premier League, and neither have a decent striker who can make the difference, so a goalless draw is a real possibility. 0-0.

Everton vs. Southampton
Everton lost 1-0 at home to Sunderland on Boxing Day, which is a result nobody could have expected. They battered Sunderland’s goal in the second half despite a man disadvantage, and would have possibly won had it not been for Vito Mannone in the opposition goal. Martinez spoke optimistically after the game, but that defeat represents a big opportunity missed, because Everton would be in fourth and two points above Liverpool had they won. Southampton won 3-0 at Cardiff, with a welcome first clean sheet since October, and that should establish them in the top half of the table this season. Everton must win this to keep up the pace with the top four. 2-1.

Newcastle vs. Arsenal
After Man City, Newcastle are the Premier League’s form team. Putting a few goals past a side with only nine men does not necessarily tell us much about a team’s quality. However - more tellingly - the Magpies have taken twenty-two points from a possible twenty-seven. They cannot stop winning. This is the ultimate test then, for title-chasing Arsenal. The Gunners went to the top of the table after a 3-1 win at West Ham, coming from behind in the second half. A positive is the return of Lukas Podolski, who grabbed a goal and an assist after coming off the bench. However, there were times in that match when their defence looked quite vulnerable, and it will face an even sterner test with Gouffran, Remy, Ben Arfa and Cabaye all impressing lately. When these teams meet it always produces goals, though this match may not be quite as dramatic as the 4-4s and 7-3s in recent seasons. 2-2.

Chelsea vs. Liverpool
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in their last two matches, despite having had less possession, as Arsenal and Swansea settled on a patient approach against them. That may not be the best way to play against Mourinho’s men. This season, teams seem to have more success when they go for Chelsea’s throats. They look more vulnerable when opponents constantly attack and are not too concerned about keeping the ball, Newcastle and Stoke being classic examples. Their spine does not pose the same physical threat as it used to. Lampard, Terry and Mikel have all looked a little sluggish this season, while Luiz can be found out of position. With so much pace around Suarez’s world-class intelligence, Liverpool have a real chance of opening Chelsea up if they attack from the off. The Reds might just upset the Stamford Bridge crowd. 1-2.

Tottenham vs. Stoke
It has been a mixed start to Tim Sherwood’s reign at Tottenham, with a win, a draw and a defeat. The transfer window arrives after this round of games, but Tottenham should be one of the quieter teams. They brought in a lot of players this summer, so the issue is not so much the depth of their squad and more giving the men they brought in time to gel. Panic-buying is the last thing they should be doing. A strong first half of the season for Stoke became tinged with sourness on Boxing Day. They had two men sent off, their manager was charged with improper conduct, their goalkeeper was ruled out for six weeks – oh, and they lost 5-1. That was certainly not a good day for Stoke, and Tottenham will look to take advantage of their loss of key players. 3-1.

The Championship
Most of the key action is in the battle to beat the drop. Two teams at the bottom of the form book go head-to-head, as Neil Harris has his first game in football management, away to goal-leaking Doncaster. Another caretaker manager is in the fray, Stuart Gray takes his Sheffield Wednesday team to Charlton, who recently enjoyed victory over Brighton. Play-off contenders Nottingham Forest and Leeds do battle, with both having kept a number of clean sheets in recent weeks. 

Barnsley vs. Derby
If they want to stay up, this is a game Barnsley need to try and win. You might have expected Danny Wilson’s arrival to provide a ‘honeymoon period’, but they have not scored in either of his first two games in charge. If they could get a win unexpectedly, against a team near the top, then perhaps that would generate some momentum. A win on Saturday certainly would be unexpected. Derby are in excellent form, having only lost once since Steve McClaren took over, although their seven match winning streak ended with a draw at Huddersfield. Having led for most of the match, and missed a penalty in the first half, they let their lead slip with just four minutes to play. The one concern for Derby may be the fitness of Will Hughes, who picked up a knock in that match, but this game should not be a problem for the Rams. 0-2.

Blackburn vs. Birmingham
Blackburn have only lost once in their last ten games at Ewood Park, although a 0-0 draw at home to Sheffield Wednesday is a poor result. This is the last match before the January transfer window opens, so top scorer Jordan Rhodes could be playing for his move to a Premier League club. Birmingham are eight matches unbeaten and are the Championship’s away specialists, having taken eleven points from their last five on the road. The Blues are beginning to look like a solid unit with Burn and Bartley at centre-back, because they did not allow Wigan any chances in a 0-0 draw, despite going down to ten men in the second half. This could be a tight game. 1-1.

Blackpool vs. Brighton
Blackpool’s disciplinary problems continued on Boxing Day. Kirk Broadfoot picked up his second red card in four games, and Blackpool’s sixth this December. Thankfully for the Tangerines, the incident happened in the closing stages, so their run of four straight defeats ended with a 1-1 draw against Leeds. Brighton were near the top of the form book just a few days ago, but they have dropped points with a draw and a loss against Huddersfield and Charlton respectively. However, in the 3-2 defeat at Charlton, the Seagulls saw an excellent return to action for Leandro Ulloa. Having been injured for two months, Oscar Garcia gave Ulloa his first start since picking up a foot injury back in October. Ulloa grabbed a brace, and if he can gain some form now, that is good news for Brighton’s play-off ambitions. Very often, they only require one goal to win a game. 0-1.

Bournemouth vs. Ipswich
Ipswich are the Championship’s form side, after Derby County. Following a 3-0 win at Doncaster, they have taken fourteen points from their last six games, David McGoldrick’s goals being key to this sequence of results. Bournemouth have been doing well lately themselves. They have won three of their last four, Matt Ritchie has put in some very impressive displays, scoring a brace in the 3-0 win over Yeovil. If you have watched Ritchie over the last month, you would not have guessed that he had just recovered from a long-term injury, and had not played since April. Ipswich will have a glint in their eye going into this one, just one point off the play-offs, while Bournemouth are already ten points clear of the drop zone. This match holds more significance for the visitors. 1-2.

Charlton vs. Sheff Wed
Charlton got a 3-2 home win over Brighton on Thursday, thanks to two goals from the rare source of right-back Laurie Wilson. That was their first win since November, and a very encouraging one. They came from behind against Brighton, who do not concede many goals. However, the Addicks are just three points above the drop zone, and cannot afford to rest on their laurels when they play relegation rivals Sheffield Wednesday. The Owls kept their second clean sheet under Stuart Gray at Blackburn, but the problem is going forward. In five games with Gray at the helm, Wednesday have only had twelve shots on target, which is a very poor record. To stay up, they need a manager who will show more attacking ambition. 1-0.

Doncaster vs. Millwall
A meeting of two teams right at the bottom of the form book. Doncaster have shipped three goals in each of their last four games now, and their 2-1 win against QPR at the end of November seems a very long time ago. The Rovers are just two points above the drop zone, and their next opponents are hardly in a better position themselves. Millwall sacked manager Steve Lomas after a 4-0 defeat at Watford. Lomas was arch rivals West Ham’s captain for eight years, so perhaps his immediate successor will be slightly more popular with Lions fans. Club legend Neil Harris has becomes caretaker manager. Harris might well get the backing of the fans, yet he has no management experience, having only began his coaching role at the club this summer. To go from retirement straight to managing a team might be too much of a challenge for him. Millwall need to appoint a new manager quickly. 3-1.

Huddersfield vs. Yeovil
After a brief spurt of three straight wins, Huddersfield are now without a win in four. Goalscoring is a worry, as James Vaughan has only netted once since 1st October, and is looking a shadow of the striker he was in the first couple of months. When they went four games unbeaten, Yeovil seemed capable of breaking out of the drop zone. Back-to-back defeats have knocked them back again, particularly in the manner of their 3-0 loss at Bournemouth. With such a young squad it will be difficult for them to recover quickly enough. 2-1.

Leicester vs. Bolton
Dave Nugent scored his twelfth goal of the season, as Leicester beat Reading on Boxing Day. With that result, the Foxes went to the top of the table, three points clear of third place. They are improving  defensively, thanks partially to good performances from young Liam Moore, having conceded just seven goals in their last ten games the 20-year-old has played. Bolton’s away record continued with a win at Barnsley, but the other teams they have beaten on the road were Birmingham, Bournemouth, and Watford who were out of form. A trip to Leicester is a different proposition. 2-0.

Middlesbrough vs. Reading
Karanka looks to be improving results on Teeside. The start to his Middlesbrough career was mixed, at best, but after back-to-back wins Boro are now eight points clear of the relegation places. They can now start to look up the table, rather than down it. Reading have lost three of their last four and do not seem to be creating enough chances at the moment. With Pogrebnyak, Sharp and Le Fondre in the squad, they do not lack natural goalscorers, but have not got enough passing quality in the centre. Middlesbrough have won their last two, Reading have lost their last two, and both sequences could be extended. 2-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Leeds
Nottingham Forest are rediscovering the defensive solidity they had in August, despite being without Kelvin Wilson and Danny Collins. They have kept four straight clean sheets after a 2-0 win over QPR, but arguably, Forest have the opposite problem to Reading. Despite plenty of creative players in midfield, they have only had one goal from their strikers in their last five games. Leeds dropped two points in the second half against Blackpool, however, they have kept three clean sheets from their last five. The chances are, this will be a relatively low-scoring game, with Nottingham Forest possibly edging it. 1-0.

Watford vs. QPR
In 2011, this was the fixture which effectively sealed QPR’s promotion to the Premier League, barring the possible points deduction saga. This time, the match has different connotations, as QPR have slipped to third and cannot afford to fall further behind Burnley and Leicester. They have lost their last two games, against Leicester and Nottingham Forest, and have failed to score three times in their previous four. Watford got just the start Giuseppe Sannino will have wanted, a 4-0 win over Millwall in his first home game. Troy Deeney has now scored four goals in his last four games, and is starting to propel himself back among the top goalscorers in the division. For all QPR’s defensive talent, they do not score enough goals, which is poor given how much Fernandes has spent on the squad. 1-1.

Wigan vs. Burnley

Burnley missed a chance to go top when they lost at Middlesbrough, and a problem for the Clarets is that they have not won away since October. And this stat could still be in tact after they have played Wigan. The Latics have taken seven points from Rosler’s first three league games in charge, although they were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Birmingham on Boxing Day. There is an eleven point gap between the teams, yet on paper Wigan have a better, and bigger, squad than Burnley. Over the Christmas period, Burnley’s squad might struggle playing so many games in such a short space of time. Their task will be made harder at the DW, because Wigan will play at a quick tempo, which might unhinge the Burnley defence. 2-1.

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