It's clear that Derby County are a club looking for a change of direction. They've spent four years under Nigel Clough, slap-bang in the middle of the Championship table, employing a very ethical approach with the ex-Burton Albion man at the helm. He has done a very good job for the Rams, and is bound to become a manager many look up to in terms of loyalty and trust in young players, yet change is needed for Derby to progress.
In January 2009, the club were having a torrid time. They had been dubbed 'the worst ever Premier League team' the previous season, finishing bottom with just eleven points, and the first half of this season hadn't give Derby fans much reason to be optimistic. With Paul Jewell in charge, they were now languishing 18th in the Championship and just a few points above the drop zone. It was clear things weren't going well.
Jewell was subsequently sacked and Nigel Clough, who had been manager at Burton Albion for eleven years, took the job. He immediately revolutionized the club's youth recruitment network, always brought in young, hungry players, and with little funds made available, he preferred to look to the club's academy to fill a gap in the team, rather than to sign players on temporary, short-term deals. He was always looking to the future, and to some extent this approach paid off, because since his appointment Derby finished higher than in the previous campaign every season, until 2013.
The club became the Championship equivalent of Arsenal. They had one of the youngest squads in the league, made sure they swept up all the best local talent from a young age, and they always played their football with a frenetic energy, looking to get the ball from either box quickly.
However, Clough's passion for youth, and bringing through players who could play exciting football, came at a cost defensively. 254 goals were conceded in 4 seasons, that's an average of 64 per season and 1.4 per game, perhaps due to naivety at the back. Out of all Derby's defenders since Nigel Clough had been in charge, only Gareth Roberts was in his 30s. The team lacked defensive experience, organisation and leadership.
There's also an issue with spending, as the Arsenal similarities continue. Since he took over, Clough only spent a net total of £0.4 million over the course of four years, making a profit in a lot of the transfer windows. In addition, they were very shrewd with their wage structure, because few players at the club are currently earning more than £10,000 per week. Contrastly, Cardiff and Hull who gained automatic promotion last season, spent around £5 million improving the squad. Derby haven't done that, and it's going to get harder and harder for them to compete at the right end of the table with their current business model. The Championship is growing ever more competitive, due to foreign players coming into the Premier League, pushing the best English talent downwards.
There are two contrasting viewpoints on the reasons behind the lack of spending at Pride Park. Some believe that Derby chairman Andrew Appleby has denied Clough the funds to buy the players he wants, and so he has been forced to promote youth to fill the squad. Some believe that Appleby has given Clough the transfer backing, but he's merely opted to develop youth instead. The reality is probably somewhere in between.
It's unlikely Clough has stubbornly rejected any possible opportunity to improve the squad, because he spent £2 million last season on some experienced players in Conor Sammon and Richard Keogh. On the other hand, Appleby was never throwing blank cheques in Clough's face. Appleby is an American businessman, and as with most foreign chairmen, his interior motives for taking over at Derby in the first place were likely to be financial - the club were in the Premier League at the time.
Initially he wanted to establish the Rams as a top flight club, for the TV money, but he spotted potential for profit in Clough's approach. By spending very little each year, because of big attendances, the club make a lot of money. For arguments sake, if there are 23,000 season ticket holders (excluding individual match tickets etc.), and each season ticket costs £400, that's £9 million, plus money from food and programmes.
Knowing that the club would always be safe in midtable under Clough's guidance, the Derby board were quite happy with the way things were going. Clough was a man passionate about developing youth, he wasn't going to put heavy pressure on Appleby to spend money, when he enjoys getting the best out of young players and believes that to be the way forward. Whilst Appleby, as a businessman, was never going to insist Clough spent his own money if he was making cash with the current system. The way the club was run indirectly suited all parties.
But now the Derby board have more ambition. Appleby feeling he won't reach his ultimate aim of the TV money jackpot in the Premier League with Clough's nuturing approach. A change of direction will be perfectly healthy for the club, and here's why Tony Pulis should be the next Derby manager.
1 - He will tighten up the defence
Under Pulis, Stoke only conceded 249 goals in 5 Premier League seasons. That's an average of 50 per season, and 1.3 per game. In their first season in the top flight, the Potters conceded just 15 home goals. On two occassions, they had the best defensive record of all teams in the bottom half of the table. Pulis has learnt that defensive organisation is key, not only to promotion, but to establishing a club in the Premier League. 35 of promoted Cardiff and Hull's collective 49 wins came by just one goal. Very few times in a season, will top teams win 3 or 4-0 and play perfect football. A large number of times, will teams win 1-0 or 2-1, and have to defend a lead in the last 25 minutes. The difference between promotion, and staying down therefore, is the ability to stay strong defensively. Derby have the talent and potential going forward, but they need to develop a tough, winning mentality at the back, which Pulis will instill.
2 - A more direct style may suit them
The criticisms of Pulis' possible move to Derby are that his 'tackle, hoof' gameplan won't be suitable for a Derby team that is relatively small. Derby's midfield may be more gifted technically than in the air, but the Rams have two target men in their squad in Chris Martin and Conor Sammon. If Martin, the more regular starter can hold the ball up, Derby have plenty of players capable of running from deep in Will Hughes, Jamie Ward and new signing Johnny Russell, who likes to drop off the main striker. Overloading the penalty box quickly will make those players harder to mark, their runs will become more difficult to track. Even if Pulis would favour a route one system from the back, that doesn't take away the technical ability Derby have in midfield, it adds an extra dimension. If the opposition defend a long ball, Will Hughes will receive it in midfield, and he can still dictate play.
3 - Who else is there?
The odds currently have Steve McLaren, Michael Appleton and Martin O'Neill as the 'favourites'. Whilst I don't blame McLaren solely for his failure with the national team, it will be a massive risk for any club to appoint him, given the pressure he'll be under from opposition fans and media, it will be difficult for him to settle at Derby. Appleton is a very young manager at 37, each of the four manager jobs he's been given in his career, he's not managed to stay for longer than a few months. Martin O'Neill looked out of energy at the end of his time with Sunderland, and for five years managed Derby's rivals Leicester City.
Pulis has experience of managing in the Premier League - successfully. He achieved his aim of making Stoke a consistent feature in the top flight. Even at the expense of playing attractive football and bringing through youth, most Championship clubs would settle for being in the biggest league in the world. That's where Derby can reach if they appoint Tony Pulis.
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