Thursday 15 November 2012

Premiership predictions- 15/11/12

Good evening scorers. Well after a disappointing performance, as always, from England in Sweden on Wednesday night, let's look to put that behind us and focus on the positives: it's not got the dullness of a full international weekend and we've got 10 action-packed games coming up for you...
 
The race for 4th looks set to become clearer after the North London derby is over, Liverpool look to build on their point at Chelsea by beating inconsistent Wigan, it's another Manchester club for Villa as they go to the Etihad, the Magpies attempt to paddle out the Swans at St. James's Park, the fight down at the bottom will intensify when QPR slug it out with Southampton, Everton look to hold onto their Champions League place when they travel to the Madjeski, Chelsea, 3pts off the top, surely can't afford any slip-ups at Clarke-inspired West Brom, Man United need to stay top of the table when they face a promising Norwich team in the day's teatime kickoff, Sunderland's slippery slide down the table need to stop - suddenly - at Fulham, and we have the Monday night game that shows admittedly a little less promise, when 4-5-1 long-ball merchants West Ham and Stoke play each other at their own game. Shall we continue?
 
Arsenal vs. Tottenham
Del says: 2-1
Rami says: 2-2
 
To some extent, this match for both teams is about them picking themselves up. Arsenal won't quite know what hit them last week, when they threw away a 2-goal lead against Fulham and missed a penalty to win it in the dying seconds, but then everyone will forget about that if they win this. Olivier Giroud did score a couple of goals last week which might boost his confidence a little, but from what I've seen of him so far this season, he's in as close a league to Marouane Chamakh as Robin Van Persie- he is good, but he's not that good, bearing in mind Arsenal really needed a like-for-like replacement.
 
What won't help Tottenham is that Giroud's international custodian, Hugo Lloris's claims he may leave the club in January due to a lack of first team action. Yes, I personally think Villas-Boas should have fielded him ahead of Friedel, who's now 40, after signing Lloris for £15-odd-million in the summer, but as a player you have to respect your manager's decisions. I also heard he's the France captain- it certainly shows a lot of unprofessionalism for someone who captains their country.
 
Tottenham I thought were a little unlucky to lose the game at Man City but whenever they  win a run of games under AVB they always seem to lose one to knock themselves back a peg, losing at home to Wigan the week before was without doubt a poor result before the City game; they need to get some consistency back if they want to stay with Everton in the race for 4th. 
 
I'm having a tough time calling this one, because neither side look red hot at the moment. They both clearly lack a holding midfielder; Dembele is out for Tottenham and Wenger tends to prefer a more creative midfield with Arsenal, Tottenham's strengths lie in attacking mid as well, so I'm predicting a few missed chances in a pretty open North London derby, that my gut instinct is telling me, if a little timidly, that Tottenham will win 2-1.

 
Liverpool vs. Wigan
Del says: 2-1
Rami says: 1-0
 
Both teams are struggling to get any sort of rythym to their season. I think Liverpool have to win this match if they want to take many positives from this campaign, for the long-term. I think this because a little bit like Tottenham, there have been a few results this season such as the August draw with City, the 5-3 at Young Boys, the 5-2 at Norwich where you think: 'great, they're up and running under Rodgers' but then they can't seem to follow up those results with another win, which is always so important. Again, they got a promising-looking point at Chelsea last week, coming from behind as well, but I'm not going to believe that they're back on track yet until they can put a run of wins together, and even then I don't think European football next season is a realistic short-term aim for them.

What the Reds should be worried about, is that Wigan lost their last game. Martinez's side can be so inconsistent, then again, sometimes they're not inconsistent- they're inconsistently inconsistent. Granted West Brom are doing quite well at the moment, but after the Latics won at Spurs, I really expected them to beat the Baggies at the DW, who had based most of their successes this season on home form. But they didn't put in a strong enough performance and conceded two sloppy goals in the first half, and Kone's goal just before half-time didn't provoke the second-half Wigan onslaught many anticipated. I can't see this being a relegation-related problem for Wigan though, because they have that ability to turn on the style now and again and produce wins out of thin air.

My initial thought for this was 2-1 to Liverpool, but I've had a change of heart. I'm going to go for 0-0, with a few key Liverpool players playing for their countries in midweek it could just be a frustrating afternoon for them, they don't really get enough players into the box at the moment, and Wigan will know they need to up their game after last week, which I think they'll do.


Man City vs. Aston Villa
Del says: 2-0
Rami says: 3-0

This is a comparitively easier one for me to call; I did think Man City were stuttering this season, they somehow haven't looked quite as fresh and vitalised as they did last season, but they are unbeaten this year, they've at least shown a fair bit of grit and determination to come from behind to win at places like Fulham, West Brom, earlier on who've got strong home records and then to do so again beating Tottenham. Despite my lingering doubts about Mancini, they'll be right up there at the end of the season, that's for sure.

Aston Villa fans would do well to remember not to wind-up Mario Balotelli as they did in this fixture last season, when he got himself a goal after a confrontation with one of their fans and then nearly scored an overhead kick! Lambert's side put in a good performance against Manchester United last week, and unbiasedly (as a Blues fan) I think they can take a great deal of heart from that performance, but they needed to go 15/20 minutes without conceding after they got their second goal to properly see the game out. Then again, it's always difficult to do against United, especially with the fantastic attacking options they've got from the bench. They maybe need a little bit more experience in midfield because effectively their team consists of the best young players from the football league and they're a bit like a newly-promoted side in some respects. That calculated but risky gamble with transfer policy from Lambert might cost them points due to lack of experience in the short-term but I like his approach.

I do think Dzeko deserves a start, and could see him getting a couple of goals if he plays. People say that he's best left as a supersub but my own opinion is, if he scores the goals, why not give him the games? You can always revert to just putting him back on the bench if it doesn't work out, but why overcomplicate it? The reality is though, that they've got 4 quality strikers in their ranks and I'm sure whoever Mancini plays will do the business. 2-0.



Newcastle vs. Swansea
Del says: 1-1
Rami says: 1-1

Newcastle may well be frustrated with their performance against West Ham last week. That was strictly speaking the sort of match they should be winning if they want to stay in the top half of the table, particularly at home, but then the Hammers now under Allardyce's mould are proving to be a tough cookie and the Thursday night game in Brugge won't have the Magpies either, so I guess if I was a Newcastle fan I'd be prepared to write that off as a bad day at the office- as long as the team can bounce back.

Swansea have done something quite important in the first quarter-or-so of the season, that something being: they've steadied the ship. They got off to a start that saw them fly through the roof in August with massive wins, they then lost a few games in September which gave their season a bit of a sinking feel, but since then they've won a game, lost a game, and drawn a few. Which is fine, and it just means they've found their place in the season- to be sitting midtable and 7pts off the drop zone at this stage is very impressive for a side only promoted in the last couple of years and has had to deal with the manager shift. Plus the £15 million received for Sinclair may loosen up the pursestrings a bit in January. Things look promising for Swansea.

On the whole though, I think I'll go for a Newcastle win. They've had a whole week to prepare for this game without the distractions the Europa League games bring with them, and they need to get back to winning ways. I'll say 2-0.


QPR vs. Southampton
Del says: 2-0
Rami says: 2-2

Realistically speaking, if they want to stay up, a draw won't be good enough for either side. I think we're now beyond the stage where teams can be disappointed with a result, but relatively encouraged by the general performance, or concede a lot of chances and then be simply relieved to come away with a point- QPR and Saints are now 5 and 4pts off safety. Lets not kid ourselves... it's now a results business and the only result that fits the bill for these teams is a win.

A small part of me hasn't given up for the sides, because QPR have been giving more than they've got in recent weeks, putting in promising performances, but it's more important that you get what you give. I've had a change of opinion on Hughes, after the Stoke game last week I did think he should be given the chance until Christmas to turn things around but he simply hasn't got the best out of the quality players he has at his disposal- being rooted to the bottom is a very poor representation of the amount he's been allowed to spend. I think it's a case of win or else for him.

Again, I do feel that Southampton have the makings of a club that can stay in the division. I saw somewhere a few months ago that they are the 7th biggest spenders in Europe, which seems ludicrous. And that money must be coming from somewhere, because I don't get the impression that Nigel Adkins, (who by the way, should unquestionably keep his job whether Saints go down or not, in my opinion) is the kind of man to spend that money carelessly. The fact that they've got the second-highest 'goals for' rating in the bottom half of the division suggests that the introduction of a proven and experienced defender in January could really help their cause. But like QPR, they can't be happy with a draw in this game.

If these teams agree with me about the win-or-bust nature of this match, I think this has the makings of a great game of football. QPR have a lot of creativity in their midfield, Southampton have a very leaky defence but they are also more than capable of scoring goals. This prediction involves neither team getting the 3pts they need, but I'm going to go for a 3-3 thriller.



Reading vs. Everton
Del says: 0-1
Rami says: 1-3

Everton look very strong at the moment and I would say this will be a big test of Reading's Premier League credentials. The Toffees are 4th at the moment, they look like they've got goals in them so it will be a hard game for Reading, but I do think sides with the ability to stay up will make a real fight of this kind of match, turn their home ground into a fortress and run teams like Everton very close, whereas the sides that go down eventually tend to crumble in these games, show no sense of self-belief, create no chances and get flattened. I'd just be interested to see how this pans out.

The Royals got an unsatisfactory point at home to Norwich last week in yet another draw, a 6th of which from 10 games does suggest that they are involved in a lot of close matches and that they can compete with the big boys - it'll just be so frustrating for them that they can't seem to get that all-important first win in the bag. They should have had it before November time.

Everton have been playing some fantastic stuff of late, but the key for them will be how the Fellaini situation is dealt with. There's no denying he's been a big, big part of what has made that team tick the way he dominates games but he's got itchy feet saying he'd like a move to a bigger club, I wondered how long Everton would be able to hold onto him. Hopefully they can get at least £25 million for the Belgian and Moyes has done so well over the past 10 years with such a limited budget, I'd like to see what he could do with some extra financial muscle- with his scouting ability I'm sure he could find a couple or maybe even three players of Fellaini's quality long-term with that money.

On the whole, I worry that the issue with Fellaini might unsettle Everton a little bit and Reading being at home might be able to sneak another draw, but I can't quite see them winning it, so 2 goals apiece.


West Brom vs. Chelsea
Del says: 2-2
Rami says: 1-2

This game sees both managers return to their old clubs. Steve Clarke was Jose Mourinho's assistant manager when Chelsea won the league twice, and Roberto di Matteo will all too well remember managing West Brom when they lost at Chelsea 6-0 on the opening day of the season back in 2010.

I can't see a repeat of that scoreline on Saturday though, because Clarke's honeymoon period with West Brom appears to have been given extended leave, winning at Wigan last week proof that the Baggies have no intention of falling into a relegation battle after Christmas, as they now sit joint-4th in November, and some 14pts off the bottom 3.

In fact incredibly, a win for West Brom would actually take them to a point behind Chelsea, who perhaps influenced by their Carling Cup selection policy and the significance of their Champions League match with Shakhtar, have dropped 4 crucial points from winning positions in their matches with Swansea and Liverpool, in the wake of their home league defeat to Manchester United.

In essence, Chelsea can't afford any more slip-ups as City and United play teams I would expect them to beat. The Blues will probably be the favourites for this, but my heart is actually telling me this is a winnable game for West Brom, it being played at the Hawthorns. It would be a mistake for Chelsea to expect to win this game comfortably, like they did last season and lost 1-0, I can see there being a sense of de ja vu.


Norwich vs. Man Utd
Del says: 0-3
Rami says: 0-2

If I could offer one piece of advice to Chris Hughton for this match it would be: 'don't score first.' Manchester United have conceded the opening goal in 9 of their 17 games so far this season, in all competitions, of which they've won 7. They have this incredible ability that Ferguson has ingrained into the club to come from behind, but I'd be interested to see whether that continues for the rest of the season, whether they tighten up defensively, start to lose games because of complacency, or carry on coming back from being a goal down.

The one thing they aren't short of, are goalscorers. Van Persie is the league's joint-top scorer, Hernandez has been fantastic in recent weeks which were capped off by his effective hattrick at Villa Park last time out, Ferguson has evidently seen a lot in Danny Welbeck... oh yeah, and they've got Rooney. Welbeck aside in my view, they've got at least three top class strikers, and have also got so many players who can come on in the second half to make a big impact, that has been a massive advantage for them.

Norwich have been showing very positive signs of improvement recently. I remember they got a wonderfully unexpected win against Arsenal a few weeks ago, and in a way that result wouldn't have meant much if they weren't able to back it up with some good results afterwards. Creditable draws, notably when the opposition badly needed wins, away to Aston Villa and Reading sandwiched a hard-fought win at home to Stoke and the Canaries are now sitting comfortably 5pts clear of the relegation zone.

The Red Devils don't seem to be doing things the easy way at the moment, and in some ways I'd be surprised if Norwich didn't score the first goal, but I'm going to stick with Rami on this one and say they can win 2-0.


Fulham vs. Sunderland
Del says: 2-2
Rami says: 2-1

Sunderland came pretty close to taking all the points at Goodison last week, but Fellaini's late show meant they made the short journey back to Wearside empty handed. They need to stop the rot a bit; it doesn't look good that Adam Johnson's goal was the first time anyone apart from Steven Fletcher has scored for them- I just think, what would they do if he gets injured?

Sunderland's inability to score goals is part of the reason why I can't see them getting a second win of the season at Fulham, who in a similar way to West Brom and West Ham, have based their uper-midtableship this season on solid home form- in fact, they've got a better home record than Tottenham and Arsenal. Particularly the likes of Berbatov and Bryan Ruiz have provided Fulham with some guile going forward, that has seen them become the second highest goalscorers in the Premiership.

The Black Cats do have a fairly impressive defensive record, so I think they'll keep Fulham down to goal, but a moment of magic from one of the Cottager's attacking players should be enough to see them nick this game 1-0.


West Ham vs. Stoke
Del says: 1-2
Rami says: 1-1

Normally on my predictions game we finish with the 4pm Super Sunday match, which is usually a massive game involving at least one of the title contenders, but this one is on Monday night, which I don't think is really right for a weekend game but I guess it's for the TV. I don't want to sound too disrespectful to these teams, but I probably won't watch it.

West Ham certainly battled hard for the win at Newcastle, and they look very good for another season in the Premiership now- they've got almost half the number of points they'll need to stay in this league, little over a quarter of the way into the season. Despite having been freshly promoted, a top-half finish looks a more likely way for their season to go than a relegation battle does. And you've got to credit Big Sam for that.

Stoke would do well to be just a little bit more cautious, this being the first of four matches against upper-midtable teams and the 6pt gap between themselves and 18th could change in three weeks. Like West Ham, they're a tough team that are notoriously difficult to break down.

I hate to say it, but I can see this game being a series of uneventful long balls into the box into Carroll/Crouch, who both defences will probably be able to mark out of the game. I'm sorry West Ham and Stoke fans,  but I can only see a goalless draw here.


So, those are my predictions for this weekend! Good luck to you if your team is playing, I'll be away so unfortunately I won't be able to watch Birmingham City play Hull, and the return of Steve Bruce to St. Andrews. Hull are 4th in the Championship so it'll be a tough game for us, but we need to start to put some wins on the board. I'm not sure what's happening with the takeover, either.

My thanks to Del and Rami for their predictions, if you fancy joining in this game which is on every week, (or contact me for any other reason) send your predictions to:

sutton.thescore@gmail.com

Alternatively, you can follow me on twitter:

@_thescore

Have a top weekend, bye for now.
 

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