Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Eleven

My predictions for this weekend's Premier League and Championship matches.

Premier League

Aston Villa vs. Cardiff

Goalscoring Defender - Caulker

This has the makings of a goalless. At West Ham last week, Aston Villa kept their third consecutive away clean sheet, and the main reason they have not been able to do it at home so far has been because of the fixture list. Out of the first five visitors to Villa Park this season, only Newcastle were not in last season’s top seven. The main problem for the Villains is that they only seem to attack when they have either gone behind, or their opponents commit too many men forward. Having kept back-to-back clean sheets, Cardiff are unlikely to do the latter. Their win in the Premier League’s first ever Welsh derby last weekend puts them up to twelfth, it also means that they can approach this kind of game knowing a point would be a good result. The Bluebirds do not have an obvious tallisman, rather, they have a series of joint-top scorers, who have each got just two goals. As for Villa, they are lacking goals full stop, having drawn four consecutive blanks. A little worryingly for Lambert, Christian Benteke has not found the net since mid-September. 0-0.

Chelsea vs. West Brom

Poor Showing at St James's

A surprising slip-up for Chelsea at Newcastle last week, losing 2-0 with a very poor performance. The team had 61% possession, yet only two shots on target - they struggled to create openings. That game was the opposite of what we expect from Chelsea. Until now, they have played with a sense of urgency and looked to create chances quickly through their attacking talents. One can only write that off as a bad day for their forward magicians though, and Chelsea remain my prediction for the title. West Brom met expectations last week by disposing of Palace, a win started by a goal from the impressive Saido Berahino. The 20-year-old found space with some classy movement, and he finished with composure well beyond his years. In my opinion, he is the most underrated player of the season so far. You can expect to see West Brom to defending deep for this game. Holding midfielders Yacob and Mulumbu will try to get behind the ball to stop Chelsea playing, but the hosts have so much quality in the attacking third it should not be a problem. 2-0.

Crystal Palace vs. Everton

Job: Crystal Palace Manager - No Experience Required!

It has been confirmed that Keith Millen will take temporary charge of Crystal Palace for this match. Presumably, the strategy from the Palace board is to wait for a more favourable run of fixtures, before appointing someone on a full-time basis. Hull, Norwich, West Ham and Cardiff are the club’s following four games, and if a new manager starts off by winning a couple of those morale might improve. In reality, Palace do not have a developed enough squad to compete in the Premier League, regardless of the managerial arrangements. Everton played out a drab stalemate with Tottenham on Sunday. A game in which they did not show enough intent to try and win, only one shot on target, which will be disappointing from Martinez’s perspective. I can see a hardworking performance from Crystal Palace, and Romelu Lukaku is a fitness doubt for Everton, and it is these two factors which stop me from going for a landslide away win. 0-1.

Liverpool vs. Fulham

Jol Under Pressure

Liverpool are continuing to be exposed defensively, not having kept a clean sheet since the first of September. New signing Mamadou Sakho has looked at fault on a number of occasions, and perhaps some patience will be required while the team gets used to the three at the back system. Having said all of the above, I believe Liverpool will come to life against Fulham. The Cottagers might have only lost to high-flying Southampton and Manchester United since back-to-back wins, but it is very difficult for a manager to work when the fans start to get on his case. Under pressure with new owner Shahid Khan watching on, it might end up being a heavy defeat which acts as a catalyst for his sacking. It is always dangerous to say a team will win by four goals, but I remember this fixture being played around Christmas time last season and I blogged a prediction of 4-0 to Liverpool - it came true! That’s got to be worth another go.

Southampton vs. Hull

Season's Surprises - Saints & Hull

A clash of two teams who are performing better than many expected this season. As one of the initial favourites for relegation, Hull will be delighted to stand in the top half, while Southampton’s summer of spending has been a storming success. Saints manager Pochettino will not be concerned about them having been knocked out of the Capital One Cup. He made wholesale changes for the game at Sunderland, which indicates his priorities lie in maintaining his team’s league form. Jay Rodriguez has been picked for the England squad to face Chile and Germany after four goals this season, and at the age of 24, looks set to reach his peak as a striker. The only matches Hull have lost this season, have been away to four of last season’s top seven, and they even came away from each of those games with much credibility. Both teams have excelled due to solid foundations so a tight game is on the cards at St Marys. 1-0.

Norwich vs. West Ham

Norwich fans want Hughton out

This is a very big game for Chris Hughton as manager of Norwich. A lot of Canaries fans have wanted him out this season, and an abysmal defensive display against Manchester City will not have helped matters. It is bizarre that they have spent so much money on goalscorers this summer, yet they have the joint-worst chance conversion rate in the Premier League at 4.8%. West Ham are struggling for goals themselves, having drawn blanks against Swansea and Villa and failing to score in four of their five away games this season. The injury to Andy Carroll in August has given Sam Allardyce’s side genuine problems going forward, and now joint-top scorer Ricardo Vaz Te has dislocated his shoulder. Norwich are in need of a win from somewhere to boost morale, while West Ham are in need of a decent striker. 1-1.

Tottenham vs. Newcastle

Encouraging win for Toon

A rare 12 o’clock Sunday kick-off will see Newcastle fans make an early morning trip down to London, to play a Tottenham team who are finding goals surprisingly hard to come by. One cannot help but wonder if Newcastle’s encouraging start continues, whether the Toon fans will start to mellow on Mike Ashley and Alan Pardew. The team is in the top half of the table, and after that 2-0 win over Chelsea last week, they look as though they could finish there. Tottenham, despite finding themselves in fourth at the moment, have been deeply unimpressive so far. Four of their ten matches have seen them beat a team in the bottom half 1-0. They have a solid defence, yet having spent over £100 million this summer, you would expect better performances. Sunday might be the day that Spurs begin to click in attack, a 2-0 victory.

Sunderland vs. Man City

Horrible Challenge - Cattermole

Last week’s defeat at Hull was a kick in the teeth for Sunderland, following the euphoria of their derby win. Goalkeeper Kieran Westwood has been injured, as one of their better players over the last few weeks, while Lee Cattermole’s tackle was simply reckless. If this was the 1970s, Cattermole would be one of the best midfielders in England who any Sunderland fan would love, yet his bully-boy mentality is not suited to the modern game. In any case, Sunderland are now six points adrift of safety. It is this sort of game that they will need to scrape a result from to build any confidence. But having scored twelve goals in their last two, I get a sense Manchester City are about to start developing some consistency, and put an end to their away blues. With a partnership of Aguero and Negredo now starting to blossom, a trip to Sunderland is the perfect opportunity. 0-3.

Man Utd vs. Arsenal

Learning Process for Moyes

Arsenal got a famous win at the Westfalenstadion, the home of Borussia Dortmund, on Wednesday but I still do not believe they will win the league. The squad lacks strength in depth areas such as centre-back and up front, while they don’t have the same quantity of attacking talent as City and Chelsea. Let’s not overreact to their five point lead, at what is an early stage. This match will be an interesting test of what David Moyes has learnt so far in the United hotseat. His more cautious, defensive Everton mentality has cost him at times so far, often he sets his side up to not concede, rather than play with the arrogant dynamism of the Ferguson days. With players like Ramsey, Ozil and Giroud in form for Arsenal going forward, it will require a certain amount of courage from United's new Scot to take an attacking approach. Although that would make for an exciting game, both teams could be prepared to accept a draw. Arsenal might, coming to Old Trafford after a hard-fought match away in Germany on Wednesday. On the other hand, if United lose this game, that will sap out a lot of the momentum they have built up over the last few weeks. 1-1.

Swansea vs. Stoke

"Try to aim for that white net over there."

Swansea are currently without a win in four games, after taking a point from their trip to Russia. In those four games, they have kept an average of 62% possession, but only managed four shots on target per game. Eventually, they may need to compromise some of their patience around the edge of the box for getting a shot away. It is difficult to be too critical though, because they are in fact the highest scoring team in the bottom half of the table - they just need to improve the service to Michu and Bony. If finishing is a minor concern for Swansea, then it is a major one for a Stoke team who have not won since August. The Potters are the lowest scoring team in the Premier League, and it is rather telling that their last goal came as a fluke kick from their keeper. Stoke do have a couple of quality attacking players in Assaidi and Arnautovic, as well as tall strikers in Crouch and Jones. The plan now should be to up the tempo, get it to their target man quickly and have midfielders making positive runs off the ball. This is the time Mark Hughes needs to deliver his promise of attacking football. 1-0.

The Championship

Reading vs. QPR

Experience in QPR defence

This is the fixture which confirmed both clubs’ inevitable relegation to the Championship last season, and Saturday will be the first time they have met since. After the drop, both teams have built strong defensive partnerships. Clint Hill and Richard Dunne, in their mid-thirties, still seem to have the legs for QPR. For the hosts, a considerably younger partnership of Alex Pearce and Sean Morrison have shown plenty of long-term promise, a 5-2 defeat at Wednesday last week being the anomaly. A heavy defeat can often give players a renewed sense of defensive responsibility and when playing a team at the top, they will be determined not to give anything away. QPR’s win over Derby last week, their first victory in four games, was an important one which keeps them only a point away from the promotion places. 0-0.

Barnsley vs. Doncaster

Looking Suspect - Turnbull

From a game where a 0-0 draw is on the cards, to a game where one is virtually impossible. Barnsley, who have conceded more than anyone else in the league, play host to a Doncaster side who have shipped eleven goals in their last three matches. This is potentially quite an important game in the relegation battle, because if the form book continues, these teams could be swapping places. Though their defensive record suggests Barnsley are struggling to compete, David Flitcroft’s side are in fact unbeaten in three games. By contrast, Doncaster’s defence is falling apart at the moment, and their goalkeeper Ross Turnbull is looking vulnerable to long-range strikes. The Rovers are in need of a good result soon, otherwise they are getting sucked into the relegation battle. Awful defending will be the order of the day. 4-2.

Blackpool vs. Ipswich

Blackpool continue to impress

After a late win at play-off rivals Nottingham Forest last week, Blackpool are continuing to throw their weight around in the upper reaches of the Championship. They, along with a cluster of teams at the top are still unbeaten at home, and the whole team has jelled very quickly considering such a high turnover of players this summer. The good news for Ipswich is that the Ireland job is taken, Mick McCarthy is staying. The bad news is their current form. The Tractor Boys have not won since September, despite having played three of the bottom five in that time. The Blackpool team have admirably gone about their business in spite of Paul Ince’s stadium ban, and this should be a comfortable home win. 2-0.

Bolton vs. Millwall

"Oi groundsman, the goal needs to be much bigger than that."

Some say that Bolton are in good form, being unbeaten in six games after a convincing performance at Bournemouth. The other factors are though, that they have only played one team outside the bottom half in those games, and four of them were draws. The one thing stopping Bolton from getting into a midtable position has been their dreadful home form thus far - they remain the only side yet to record a win on their own turf. Many times over the past few weeks people have expected them to win playing in front of their own fans, but they do not seem to have coped with the pressure well, having only scored six goals at the Reebok. Despite having gone a few games without a win, Millwall have shown some promise in the last few weeks, holding three of the current top five to a draw. The team can take confidence from those results. 1-1.

Brighton vs. Blackburn

Rhodes may be forced to leave

Two teams who could be moving in opposite directions, in terms of this season’s play-off picture. A late rally from Brighton last week helped them record a first win in six at Doncaster, Jake Forster-Caskey scoring a delightful long-range effort. The teenage midfielder has had a quiet season so far, but he showed a glimmer of why he had been selected for England at youth level in the last few years. The Blackburn board published their annual financial accounts after the match on Saturday, and it made grim reading, with a pre-tax loss of £36.5 million recorded for 2013. The upshot of this on the playing side, is that Jordan Rhodes may have to be sold in January. With Rhodes being by far Rovers’ top scorer, this will create a lot of uncertainty in the dressing room and Rhodes himself might struggle for form. Brighton are only five points away from the play-offs now, they could start to put a run together. 2-0.

Burnley vs. Bournemouth

Howe returns to Turf Moor

Burnley have only dropped four points at home so far, and are unlikely to drop any more when they play Bournemouth. It is difficult to comment on Burnley without paying tribute to the job Sean Dyche has done, with one of the lowest budgets in the division, and he has been rightly rewarded with a second consecutive Manager of the Month award. The form book does not give Eddie Howe much chance of a happy return to Turf Moor, as his side have won just one game in their last six, and taken only five points from a possible twenty one on the road this season. A slight concern will be that top scorer Lewis Grabban has failed to score in his last three, and £2 million man Tokelo Rantie is yet to find the net. For a team with the second worst defensive record in the Championship, this does not bode well going into five consecutive games against top half opponents. 2-0.

Charlton vs. Leeds

McCormack in-form

Charlton have now kept four straight clean sheets and seem to be developing into one of the most organised teams in the league, which is a credit to the way Chris Powell has turned results around. Much like Bolton, Charlton’s problem has been performing in front the more expectant home fans - their only win at the Valley came back in August. Comfortable home wins for Leeds in the past few weeks have put them just three points away from the play-off places, but those victories came against two of the current bottom three. Top scorer Ross McCormack scored both goals against Yeovil, he has contributed to almost half Leeds’ overall tally this season, so you would worry about the Whites in attack should he leave in January. Despite a nine place gulf between them as it stands, midtable beckons for both clubs. 1-1.

Derby vs. Sheff Wed

Promising partnership - Fryatt & Wickham

Last week: a team bottom of the table, yet to win, and with an under pressure manager playing one in the play-off places, and coming away with a 5-2 win, sums up the crazy nature of this league. These kind of shocks happen frequently, personally I do not understand the current obsession with the one-sidedness of the Spanish and German leagues, where results regarding top teams is so much more predictable. Ranting aside, the newly-formed ‘big man, little man’ partnership of loanees Connor Wickham and Matty Fryatt looks a good one for the Owls, yet it is also a temporary one. Connor Wickham’s loan contract is only until January, and with Hull struggling to score goals in the Premier League, Steve Bruce is considering recalling Matty Fryatt. If and when those two go, where will Wednesday be left? It can be dangerous for a side to develop an overreliance on loaned players. At Derby, Simon Dawkins has shown promise of taking the injured Jonny Russell’s place. Playing on the right side of a three-pronged attack, he scored a spectacular goal at QPR last week. As I see it, Wednesday’s high-scoring win was simply a freak result, Derby should get their second home win of the season. 3-1.

Huddersfield vs. Birmingham

Vaughan told his suspension has finished

The rather depressing task of predicting my own team’s fate is upon me. Blues are now in the bottom three after the defeat to Charlton, and for this game I’m particularly worried for us down our left side. Paul Robinson, though he has experience, is lacking in terms of pace. Up against a right winger with the technical quality of Adam Hammill, who has already racked up an impressive five assists this season, he might struggle. Huddersfield have only been beaten once at the Galpharm and will be boosted by the return of James Vaughan from suspension, the man who has scored half of the sides’ eighteen league goals this season. Five of Birmingham’s next six opponents are in the bottom half of the table, and as the Blues sit inside the relegation zone, this could be a crucial time in our season. 2-0.

Leicester vs. Nottm Forest

Wood scoring bizarre goal

Many will see this as an East Midlands derby between teams with promotion credentials, but for me only Leicester can go up. Nottingham Forest have a very good midfield, but at the moment, they do not have the quality in the key areas. First choice centre-backs Danny Collins and Kelvin Wilson have picked up long-term injuries, while up front their highest scoring striker has just four goals. Leicester look in much better shape across the pitch. They don’t have any stand-out performers, but Pearson has moulded them into a strong team which has won four on the trot now. After the high of winning so comfortably at Watford last week, thanks in part to that bizarre opener from Chris Wood, the Foxes will go into this derby game with nothing to fear - Nottingham Forest, much the opposite. 3-0.

Middlesbrough vs. Watford

Watford loan Thorne

That 3-0 home defeat to Leicester typifies Watford’s freakishly inconsistent season. Defensively they have been disorganised at the best of times, as only one team in the top half have conceded more goals than the Hornets. Manager Gianfranco Zola has loaned in holding midfielder George Thorne from West Brom to add some protection, but I’m not sure how much difference that will make. Thorne is only twenty, lacking hugely in the level of experience needed for the deep-lying ‘Pirlo role’ he looks set to take on, and has also had a few injury problems. Middlesbrough lost 1-0 at Blackburn last week, and despite having slightly more of the ball, they only managed a couple of shots on target. It is surprising, for a team who have scored more goals than anyone else in the bottom half of the Championship. Overall, both teams are scoring and conceding around one and a half-two goals per game this season, so the match has potential to be a high-scoring encounter. 2-2.

Yeovil vs. Wigan

"Is anyone else going to score?" - Hayter

Wigan are likely to keep a clean sheet here. Yes, the Latics had an important trip to Russia on Thursday, but playing in midweek rarely troubles a team’s defence – more often than not it gives them an opportunity to gel. Taking out their September cup defeat to Man City, Wigan have not given away more than one goal in a game in eleven matches. That puts them in a strong position against a Yeovil team who have failed to score in half their matches, and James Hayter’s grand tally of one represents their only goal coming from a forward. The Glovers have put in plenty of effort so far for a team with very little experience at this level, but Wigan will have too much quality for plucky Yeovil. 0-2.

Why Arsenal will NOT win the title

Arsenal. Five points clear at the top of the table... Aaron Ramsey is in exceptional form... No Birmingham City to screw up their chances of winning something... 

Surely the Gunners must be considered genuine title contenders? Well, actually no. Despite the result against Dortmund on Wednesday, this is why Arsenal will not win the Premier League title this season.

1. Big Game Mentality

Five of the eight teams Arsenal have beaten this season, are the current bottom five, and the Gunners are doing little more than matching expectations by taking maximum points. Effectively therefore, we are judging the side's title credentials on their ability to beat Swansea, Liverpool and Tottenham - the latter two at home. Arsenal have not been truly tested this season, and are yet to face any of last season's top three, and they have a trip to Old Trafford on Sunday. 

Last season, Arsenal took just two points from six games against the top three sides. In four of those matches, they conceded inside the first twenty minutes. The team has not been strong enough on the big occasions and tends to buckle under the weight of expectation. This is not the mentality of a team which can win the title. Although I am a supporter of the job Wenger has done at Arsenal in general, his record of setting his team up for the important matches is poor.

Over the last six seasons, this is the number of points the Gunners have gained from the other three teams who finished the Champions League spots:

12/13 2

11/12 7

10-11 10

09-10 3

08-09 9

07-08 6

They have taken 37 points from 36 games. The equivalent of a point per game, or winning one and losing two. Only once in the last thirteen Premier League seasons, has the team who wins the league collected less points than the team who finishes second, from the two matches between them. Although Arsenal's title challenges have hardly gone down to the wire in the past, losing to your rivals always has a negative impact on team morale. On the flip side, winning big games breeds confidence, and Arsenal need to be able to do it if they want to challenge for titles. 

2. Lack Of Strength In Depth

According to SkyBet, Manchester City and Chelsea are the favourites to win the title this season. Let's examine their basic first eleven, the squad players they have to potentially come in, and compare them with Arsenal's.

*? denotes secondary position

Man City

Hart (Pantilimon)

Zabaleta-Kompany-Lescott-Clichy (Richards-Nastasic-Demichelis-Kolarov)

Toure-Fernandinho (Garcia-Rodwell)

Nasri-Silva (Navas-Jovetic-Milner-Kolarov?)

Aguero-Negredo (Dzeko)

Chelsea

Cech (Schwarzer)

Ivanovic-Terry-Cahill-Cole (Azpilicueta-Luiz-Bertrand)

Ramires-Lampard (Mikel-Essien-Luiz?)

Oscar-Hazard-Schurrle (Mata-de Bruyne-Willian)

Eto'o (Torres-Ba)

The striking theme which runs through City and Chelsea is quality in numbers. For almost every position, they have players who can come into the team to replace someone, and you will not notice the difference. In my opinion, there is only one weak area in terms of depth for either side. For Chelsea, Ryan Bertrand represents a gap in quality and experience from Ashley Cole at left-back. Regarding City, one might worry for them if Yaya Toure picked up a long-term injury, with Garcia and Rodwell not having the same physical presence in midfield. Other than that, the two clubs are more than equipped to handle an injury crisis, as well as the congested fixture periods. There will be a lot of games over Christmas and New Year, then in the second half of the season when the FA Cup and Champions League start up again. This is where having a strong squad will become much more important than it is now, in early November. So what does Arsenal's squad consist of?

Sczcesny (Viviano)

Sagna-Mertesacker-Koscielny-Gibbs (Jenkinson, Vermaelen, Hayden, Monreal)

Arteta-Wilshere (Flamini, Ramsey?, Frimpong)

Walcott-Ozil-Ramsey (Cazorla, Rosicky, Podolski, Chamberlain, Gnabry, Miyaichi, Park)

Giroud (Bendtner-Sanogo)

Arsenal's first team relies a lot on unproven players, who you would perhaps not put in the same bracket as City or Chelsea's players, performing above the sum of their parts. In Sczcesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Gibbs, Arteta and Giroud, Arsenal have a lot of players who people have described as 'underrated'. This is not necessarily a problem, because having a strong team ethos has been key to Manchester United's success over the years. Only Robin van Persie provided 'star quality' to the team which comfortably won the title last season, the rest worked very hard at grinding the results out. However, the difference is Manchester United had plenty of tight competition for places.

At Arsenal, there are many areas of concern. Firstly, the cover at centre-back. Thomas Vermaelen's injury-stricken Gunners career has continued this season, with just two games so far. If Mertesacker or Koscielny were to be sidelined, Arsenal would lack knowhow in central defence - Isaac Hayden is only eighteen and yet to make an appearance.

Flamini has been solid when given a defensive midfield role, yet his fitness is a worry. This may mean that later in the season, more defensive responsibility would be placed on Aaron Ramsey, who has flourished in a more progressive, advanced midfield role. In Rosicky, Miyaichi and Park, Arsenal have three poor attacking players, on reportedly high wages, who they simply need to get rid of.

Arsenal's striking options are questionable as well. While Olivier Giroud has scored an impressive eight goals this season, his back-up options see a deep drop in quality. Man City have Negredo and Dzeko as second/third choice strikers, Chelsea have Torres and Ba - Arsenal have Bendtner and Sanogo. Bendtner has done nothing to justify his place in the squad, having scored no league goals on loan at Juventus last season, and failing to enlighten in cameo appearances for the Gunners. Sanogo is only twenty, and too much of an unknown quantity to be relied upon for goals, should Giroud get injured. 

The comparative quality and depth in certain areas of Arsenal's squad leaves much to be desired. The team's 2-0 defeat to Chelsea in the Capital One Cup, against a team who made wholesale changes, can be seen as a measure of just how far off Arsenal's squad is. In defence, they have good backup players but not enough of them, while in the more attacking areas, they have too many who aren't good enough. There are many back-up areas within the squad which can be deeply scrutinized, while many members of their first choice side are arguably overperforming.

3. Aaron Ramsey might leave

On the 27th February 2010, I was watching Stoke play Arsenal in Saturday's late kick-off. I was absolutely furious with Ryan Shawcross for his horrendous leg-breaking tackle on Aaron Ramsey, as he looked to have ruined the career of one of Britain's (alright, Wales's) most promising young talents. I remember thinking Ramsey would never be quite the same again. How wrong I was.

Two and a half years later, Ramsey can be considered a world-class player, in scintillating form. His performances have been key to Arsenal's start, his passing was promising last season, although he was too often bullied off the ball by the more physically commanding midfielders. This campaign though, he has become a lot stronger, and his composure in front of goal has dramatically improved. 

A lot of his finishes this season have come from a short lay-off from Ozil or Giroud, he would take a delicate touch to pass a helpless defender, wait for the goalkeeper to commit himself, and then curl one into the top corner. His goals have been a joy to watch, and it's a case of justice being served, after having spent so long watching on from the sidelines.

However, he may well need to leave Arsenal to reach his full potential, and the elite clubs in football seem to be squabbling amongst each other for the best creative midfielders. He will no doubt be thankful to Wenger and the backroom team at Arsenal for turning him into the player he is, yet for many an Arsenal player this never seems to be quite enough to stick around. Cole, Toure, Adebayor, Clichy, Fabregas, Nasri and Van Persie have all left Arsenal at their peak and as one of the club's best players, in search of more money and silverware. In his Gunners career, Aaron Ramsey has not been treated with the most respect by groups of Arsenal fans, so why should he feel any more loyal if a better offer came along? 

There are rumours of Luka Modric and/or Sami Khedira leaving Real Madrid, and the Galacticos president Florentino Perez is always prepared to throw the club's cash around to bring in star names. If they get £20 million for either of the aforementioned midfielders, knowing the Madrid board, they will probably spend almost double to bring in a replacement. Surely a move for Ramsey is on the cards? 

Fellow Welshman Gareth Bale would be able to help Ramsey settle, and vice-versa, with memories of the North London derbies in common. Ramsey would fit into Real Madrid's team like a glove, more so than Barcelona's. He thrives on the counter attack, sprays the ball out wide quickly, looks to shoot from range, but is a little hasty in the tackle. Alongside this, he has a lot of energy and will track back, which could be useful in the El Classicos, legs in midfield is vital against Barca's relentless passing game. A move to the Bernabeu may suit him.

Either way, Ramsey is arguably the most complete midfielder in the world at the moment, and any club would want to have him. If he leaves Arsenal, he will be almost impossible to replace.

4. They Always Bottle It

This eludes slightly to the first point about the team's lack of experience, winning mentality, knowhow, ability to handle pressure, spirit... It is really a mixture of these type of, massively underrated, characteristics within a dressing room that have made United and Chelsea a success over the last decade. You name me any successful side in elite football, and I will name you a side with a core of players who have been at the club for a long time and won trophies there.

It is no coincidence that since Patrick Vieira left Arsenal in 2005, they have not won anything. In the late 90s, Arsenal were built on the rock solid foundations of Seaman, Dixon, Adams, Keown and Winterburn. Each of those players had great experience, had played together for a while and provided a real unit at the back, on which Arsene Wenger could build with the flair of some exciting, exotic French players.

Wenger managed the transition of an aging defence well. Patrick Vieira kept the leadership in place when he replaced the retiring Adams as captain, Wenger gradually brought in Sol Campbell, Kolo Toure and Ashley Cole, who all contributed to the 'Invincibles' season. However, in the space of a few short years afterwards, the heart and soul of the team was ripped out, once Vieira left for pastures new in Italy. All of a sudden the club became overly egalitarian with it's wage structure, as the best players were leaving over contract disagreements, while fringe players coming in were handed too much. Unquestionably, the cost of building the Emirates stadium played it's part in this.

Arsenal no longer had these reliable, key players to build from and win trophies with. And so began a trend for young players to join Arsenal, develop themselves under Wenger for a few years, and move on to a bigger club. Over this period, ironically a club known as the Gunners became too soft, both in their letting top players leave, and in the way they approach important games on the pitch.

In the 2002-03 season, the team started March with an eight point lead over Manchester United, yet ended up losing the title by five points. In 2008, Arsenal became the first ever team to reach the sixty point mark in February and were five points clear. But the 2-2 draw away to Birmingham, a game remembered for Eduardo's injury and a late equalizing penalty for Blues, began a shocking run of one win in eight games for Arsenal. 2009-10, slip-ups at key times once again cost Arsenal the title. They lost all four contests against the top two, United and Chelsea. All but one of their seven defeats that season came in back-to-back games. They could not respond well enough to the pressure of having lost a match, and it was only when they lost another one that the expectation and pressure left them, so they could go on a decent run. As far as the title race goes, Arsenal have always been 'the chasers' applying the pressure on the top dog, yet never coping as the ones being chased. 

Arsene Wenger deserves much credit for the job at Arsenal, but he also needs to take some responsibility. Part of having a winning mentality is simply keeping hold of your best players, yet part of it comes from the manager being able to motivate. Many times over the past decade, Arsenal have had a very promising team, but one that has not been able to deliver when it matters most. Without a core of experienced players to help the team across what will be a difficult run of games coming up to Christmas, Arsenal will not hold onto their five point lead. They will not win the title.

Administration is best for the Blues

Dark times lie ahead for Birmingham City football club. With home attendances dropping like a stone and the team struggling desperately in the league, for the club to progress it is clear there needs to be a change of owner. Acting chairman Peter Pannu has continued to take the line that the club is for sale, yet no real action has been taken during owner Carson Yeung’s time in court. Administration for The Blues would force Carson Yeung out of the club. And, although it would mean a points deduction and likely relegation to League One, here is why administration is best for the long-term future of the club.

Everything about the football club suggests that it is in need of a rebuilding process. The team is having a torrid time in the Championship, currently in the relegation zone, but on the other hand, it has one of the best youth setups in the country. When Birmingham City get new owners in, they need to appreciate that, build for the future and create stability. For now, that is the way forward for the club.

Gianni Paladini

There have been on-going rumours of Solihull businessman Gianni Paladini taking over. And, the outlined way that Birmingham City should be run as a club is the opposite of what Paladini will do if he comes in. If he is anything like the man he was at QPR, along with Briatore and Ecclestone, he will create another era of unwanted drama at Birmingham City. He will sack managers at the drop of a hat – QPR went through nine managers in four years with him involved – he will get all kinds of ambiguous consortiums involved behind the scenes, he will employ about eight directors of football who all think they have more authority than the manager, he will sign all the Italian players that he wants rather than what the team needs… He will drive all Birmingham fans berserk.

When talking to Tom Ross, his ‘plan’ was to invest £5 million in the team to get Blues into the Premier League. Firstly, that is not a plan. Secondly, if the club want wanted to take the short-term approach, the squad would need considerably more than £5 million to go up. Thirdly, what happens if the club does not go up? There are valid question marks as to whether Paladini has the money he's promising by his own bat, and if he doesn’t, this puts Birmingham City in yet more financial trouble. Is that what the fans want?

It is possible that Paladini will take loans from various different consortiums to invest in the squad, and then pay them back later, because he can make a massive profit from the club. If by some miracle the club does make it into the Premier League, of course that is the cream and honey land for any chairman because of the TV money involved. But assuming Birmingham don’t, he can sell the club for a lot more than he brought it for.

Carson Yeung

People say that if he didn’t have something in his heart for the club: why would he have persisted for so long in trying to buy Blues, when he could have brought another club? It is not as if he needs to own a football club immediately. He knows that given the court cases surrounding Carson Yeung, and with the club’s assets stripped, he might be able to buy them on the cheap somewhere down the line. Then, he can walk into St Andrews, throw £5 million on the table, treat the club as a toy and expect promotion.

Fifteen out of twenty-four Championship chairmen are foreign. These are the kind of people who see football as some kind of amusement game in Blackpool. If you put enough coins in, you will get loads of coins back – reach the Premier League. Too many Championship clubs are trying the scattergun approach and it’s not working.

Jeremy Peace

If Blues go into administration, it would mean a ten point deduction and probably relegation to League One, but it would attract a different type of owner. It would mean that no arrogant, short-sighted foreign businessman would be remotely interested in buying the club. This would be a good thing. A more honest and passionate Englishman who understands what football is about, preferably a Birmingham fan himself, would be able to afford a takeover. At this moment in time, the club needs a board which will be there for the long haul and not create so much uncertainty. Blues need to find their own Jeremy Peace, who has done an excellent job in control of West Brom. The Baggies finished comfortably in the top half of the table last season, but since Peace has been in charge, they've only spent a net average of £3.5 million per season in transfer fees. This is a perfect example of being able to achieve in football, without overspending.

Birmingham City’s academy setup is fantastic. Over the last few years, it has produced Jack Butland, Will Packwood, Mitch Hancox, Callum Reilly, Jordan Mutch and Nathan Redmond. All of these players have the potential to play in the Premier League, and three of them currently are – for another club.

Top youth setup at Blues

Although relegation would probably mean Birmingham’s current crop of youth get snapped up, can the club not learn from it’s own progress? Blues have to be encouraged by the work the academy coaches have done, and is continuing to do nurturing talent – Reece Brown and Demarai Gray are now part of the England U18s setup. Birmingham need to replicate the aforementioned generation of young talent, and there’s no reason why they can’t do it.  

If the club becomes notorious for giving youth a chance, the best kids in the second city will join. For a city the size of Birmingham, there is not too much competition for young talent. If you’re the parent of a 13-year-old boy, you’re going to want them to be at a club where it’s more likely they will get a chance, rather than necessarily at the highest level. West Brom and Villa are both established Premier League clubs, they are therefore less likely to take a gamble on youth. Blues should take advantage of that.

As a Birmingham City supporter, I don’t want the club to be run that way forever, because being in the Premier League and getting above Aston Villa is our ultimate goal. To do that, the club will need to spend money somewhere down the line. However for the moment, it is in need of financial stability. If Blues go into administration, yes relegation is highly probable, but Carson Yeung will be forced to sell the club. At the moment, eventual relegation with Carson in control seems inevitability, and Blues would find themselves in exactly the same situation in the next few years, if Paladini took over.

The best thing for Blues to do is metaphorically swallow whatever little remains of our pride, accept relegation, and force Carson Yeung out. At that point, only the sensible, straight-talking English businessmen will be interested in buying Birmingham City, and then everyone can get on with rejuvenating the club. Getting the right owners in is crucial to Birmingham City’s future.

Blues Trust AGM: My Thoughts

At the Fusion Centre in Digbeth today, the Blues Trust held their second ever Annual General Meeting, with some exciting news. St Andrews is now listed with the Birmingham Council as an Asset of Community Value, for a duration of five years. If the owners now propose to sell the ground, the Birmingham Council must be notified, who in turn will notify the Blues Trust, who would have the opportunity to make a bid within six months.

This is excellent news. Not only does it make it harder for Yeung or Pannu to sell the ground if they decided to, it also gives the Blues Trust more power, and perhaps more publicity. They now have an official platform with legal entitlements, and are not simply a group of fans 'getting together'. It means that any new owners potentially taking over Birmingham City will have more of an obligation to respond to the Trust. This may mean that in future, fans will have a say in how the club is run and have (a lot) more transparency in their relationship with a board.

A few days ago, my criticisms of the Blues Trust would have been that they have not reached out to enough supporters to get involved. The website has a very political, formal feel, and I was unsure if that would necessarily resonate with our fanbase – Blues are known to be a bit of a working class club. I did think the number one priority with the trust was getting loads of people involved at the earliest possible stage. The best way to do that would have been to take a much more informal, perhaps even laid-back stance.

But I was wrong on that account. The problems with Birmingham City-based support groups in the past have been unity - different people with different ideas clashing. Too many people involved can lead to a series of disagreements, and potentially split fans into their own sub-groups which can be, ironically, the exact opposite of what you want to do in the first place!

Raising the profile is definitely a growing priority for the trust, but so far, so good. In the week leading up to the meeting, I was questioning why they hadn’t had a matchday presence, as I had volunteered to do some leafleting outside St Andrews previously. But much of their work since the last meeting in June as well as, lest us forget, full-time jobs, has been dedicated to the ACV project. The Blues Trust team deserve a lot of credit for the work they have done to pull that off, but the formal nature of their website has perhaps helped. It has meant that the Birmingham Council, and MP Phillip Hunt who agreed to chair the AGM, have recognized that the trust are taking themselves seriously as a group and are there for the long haul, rather than acting on a whim.

With this first taste of progress for the Blues Trust, I genuinely believe that the infrastructure is there for them to start growing on supporters. They have been criticized by some for being a bit high-heeled, in the sense that the language of the text on the website and twitter page was more impassive, and some may say self-righteous, than their progress had justified. They were also criticized for ‘cozying up to the club’ too much, which is difficult to avoid - do you improve transparency between a club’s internal affairs and the fans by smashing windows?

By taking a respectful approach, the good people inside the club such as Andy Walker, Ian Dutton and Sarah Gould among others, can gradually get on board. The more important contacts the trust builds over the next few months, the more ex-players can get involved and the trust will grow as a unit, and therefore increase its fanbase. Whereas, if you take the approach of going out all guns blazing to build the network of supporters from the off (which was my initial line of thinking) you lose the structure. People start to disagree, which is inevitable when you get a group of passionate fans together, it can lead to fallings out and the strategy becomes muddled. In that scenario, if you’re a new owner of the club, or anyone with authority, you won’t take the trust seriously because it’s just a bunch of fans squabbling amongst each other.

Getting St Andrews listed as an Asset of Community Value also stamps on the feet of some of the whingers around B9, who insist on having a go at anyone who tries to help the club. As I remember, the trust received its fair share of abuse on twitter in its infancy, which won’t happen as much now. The achievement means that anyone who joins the trust, but disagrees with the general consensus or certain methods, will need to acknowledge the success it has had with this board.

The more supporters who become aware of the hard work the trust has put in, the more loyal members it will gain, the more the group will grow in the coming months.

Gabriel's Weekend Predictions: Week Ten

My predictions for this weekend's matches, in the Premier League and Championship...

Premier League

Newcastle vs. Chelsea

Chelsea are now starting to get out of second gear this season. After a mixed start, they have now won their last six matches in all competitions, scoring eighteen goals. Against Arsenal in the cup, they made as many as ten changes from the side which beat Man City, and still came away with a win by two goals. It highlights the strength in depth of that squad, which is why Chelsea remain my tip to win the title this season. Much of Newcastle’s first team had to play 120 minutes in the cup against Man City in midweek, they have had a day less to prepare than Chelsea and more players potentially tired. Toon will struggle to get the derby defeat to Sunderland out of their system, and they rely on moments of individual quality from the likes of Remy, Cabaye and Ben Arfa for goals. There’s some animosity from Newcastle fans towards the owner, Mike Ashley, after he banned local journalists from the club. It’s not going to be the most supportive, vibrant atmosphere at St James’s Park, so this could be a comfortable afternoon for Chelsea. 0-2.

Fulham vs. Man Utd

‘Alex who?’ is unlikely to be the mindset of United fans at the moment, but three straight wins in all competitions eases some of the pressure on Ferguson’s replacement, David Moyes. A brace from Javier Hernandez in midweek may give the Scot something to think about, whenever Hernandez plays he always scores goals and should perhaps be given more of a chance. At Everton Moyes tended to prefer the bigger, more hardworking strikers who contribute in link-up play as opposed to a poacher, which might explain the Little Pea’s lack of game time until now. A rotated Fulham team was dramatically knocked out of the cup by Leicester in midweek, but that won’t be the main concern for Martin Jol. They have got a difficult fixture schedule between now and the start of December, being only two points away from the drop zone. And, with Manchester United starting to get into their stride, Fulham are unlikely to extend that gap on Saturday. 0-2.

Hull vs. Sunderland

Sunderland put in a very committed performance against Newcastle last week, but they need to play like that in most matches from now on to stay up. It is one thing to dig in for a derby game, but another to do so throughout the season. That said, a late goal as good as the one from Fabio Borini should give people a lift, and it may prove to be the turning point for the Black Cats. Hull only made four changes for their League Cup tie at White Hart Lane, from the side which lost 1-0 there four days earlier. Much of their first team has had to play 120 minutes of football on Wednesday night, which is hardly ideal for the Tigers. Only three teams have scored less goals than Steve Bruce’s side this season, and what is effectively three consecutive defeats after the penalty shoot-out defeat at Spurs, won’t exactly build confidence. To still be in the top half of the table going into November is a great achievement for Hull, but their lack of firepower up front may cost them in the next few weeks. 0-1.

Man City vs. Norwich

Pellegrini can afford to manage his team for this game with Tuesday night in mind. If City beat CSKA Moskow in their Champions League group, they are definitely through, and will be able to experiment in their remaining group games. They are likely reach the semi-final of the League Cup too, having knocked out Newcastle and are expected to get past Leicester in the quarters, which is not necessarily a good thing. Having been so inconsistent this season and languishing in seventh, the priority has to be improving Premier League form. In any case, this is a game City should win comfortably, because Norwich have had a rotten start to the season. They got a 3-2 win here on the final day of last season, but those were happier times. The Canaries are now inside the relegation zone and the pressure is mounting on Chris Hughton – they need to beat West Ham next week. 3-0.

Stoke vs. Southampton

Statistically, the highest chance of a clean sheet this weekend is at the Britannia. A Stoke side who are the joint-lowest goalscorers in the Premier League, play a Southampton team with the best defensive record. Stoke fielded a strong team at Birmingham in midweek and had to go through a dramatic 120 minutes, but given a four day rest, the team should recover for Saturday. More concerning for Mark Hughes, will be the form Southampton are in. The Saints have not lost a match since August, conceding just one goal in their last seven in all forms. I have waxed lyrical in the past about the defensive partnership between Fonte and Lovren, and would have to back them to keep a clean sheet again. Stoke have a decent defensive record themselves. Outside the top six, only one team have conceded less goals than the Potters – the dramatic 4-4 result on Tuesday was likely to have been an anomaly. Even with Robert Huth injured, I don’t think Stoke will concede in this match, nor will Southampton. 0-0.

West Brom vs. Crystal Palace

Even at this early stage, it seems the writing is on the wall for Crystal Palace. Their organisation against Arsenal was good for most of the match, plus Szczesny was forced into a couple of key saves, but they conceded the penalty from a key lapse in concentration. Palace lack both the mental strength and the quality required to stay up - it is difficult to see any manager saving them. It was surprising to see West Brom get torn apart by Liverpool last week, because generally speaking they have looked solid so far. But that game was against the league’s in-form strike partnership, this is against a Palace team who are struggling desperately to score goals. West Brom to get a clean sheet and win 1-0.

West Ham vs. Aston Villa

West Ham are another team looking strong defensively, having kept three clean sheets from their last four games. A fourth is on the cards, because Aston Villa have failed to score in their last three, despite the return of Christian Benteke from injury last week. West Ham will be scrapping for a win, being just one point above the drop zone, and this is the kind of game that Sam Allardyce will typically isolate and say: ‘we need to make sure we win this’. The lack of goals will be a concern for Paul Lambert, Villa are going into a series of important matches between now and Christmas – seven of their next nine opponents are bottom half teams. It is important that Christian Benteke rediscovers his form quickly, West Ham have the defensive strength to win this 1-0.

Arsenal vs. Liverpool

A clash between two of this season’s surprise pace-setters, who have been at times mouthwatering going forward, if a little suspect at the back. This match might see that change though, because both teams will be worried about each other’s attacking talents, so there could be a slightly more conservative approach from both sides. Arsenal might defend a little bit deeper than they have done in recent weeks, while Gerrard and Lucas are likely to take up more defensive responsibility in midfield for Liverpool. Arsenal seem to be having the same old problems in terms of beating the big teams. They lost to Dortmund and Chelsea due to individual errors, it is this underdog mentality that has been present at Arsenal long enough, and the main reason why I do not think the Gunners will win the title. Liverpool have won three of their last four games, causing Brendan Rodgers to mention a potential title challenge as well, but that is either a slight bluff or overambition. They have a great strike partnership in Suarez and Sturridge, but they are not consistent enough defensively, and I am pretty sure they would take a point here. 1-1.

Everton vs. Tottenham

In this game last season, two injury time goals from Everton gave them a 2-1 win. If the Toffees could repeat that, they would be likely to move into the top four on Sunday night, which would cap an excellent start to Roberto Martinez’s tenure. I predicted it to be a difficult transition for the club after ten years of Moyes, but Martinez has settled in really well. Everton have continued their strong home form, having won their last three games at Goodison. A concern for Tottenham will be that they played a very strong midfield against Hull in midweek. One which included Lamela, Dembele, Paulinho, Sigurdsson and Eriksen, as well as a couple of key defenders and still only won the match on penalties. Villas-Boas should arguably not have criticized the fans after the match on Saturday, but he also overreacted slightly with his celebration on Wednesday. He seemed overly happy for Spurs to win a match on the lottery of a shoot-out, that they should have won in ninety minutes. Arsenal have provided Tottenham’s only real away test so far, and they lost that, so I fancy Everton going into this. 2-1.

Cardiff vs. Swansea

Playing at home in a loud stadium, Cardiff might be the more psyched up for the first ever Welsh derby in the Premier League. More of their team have been at the club for longer, and understand what the rivalry means to the fans, whereas Swansea have signed a lot of their players since promotion. Then again, the Swans have a lot more technical quality in their team, and pass the ball around very well, although they struggled to break down West Ham last week. Neither side seem to have an in form goalscorer to give them the edge, so a 1-1 draw is the safe bet.

The Championship

Ipswich vs. Barnsley

Ipswich fans will be relieved that there has been no approach from the FAI for manager Mick McCarthy. The Tractor Boys will be keen to end a run of four games without a win though, and on the goals front they can improve. They’ve only scored twice in their last three, and in their 1-1 draw at Bolton last week, top scorer David McGoldrick netted for only the first time in a month. This is a good opportunity to build confidence in attack though, because Barnsley have the worst defence in the Championship. It’s been a recurring problem for them to hold onto a lead and they’ve dropped a fair few points this season. Against Sheffield Wednesday last time, and they came close to throwing away a three goal cushion playing Middlesbrough the week before. Had they got three points against Wednesday last week, they would look more capable of going on a run to take themselves out of the bottom three. As it is, I would fancy Ipswich to win this with their home record under McCarthy. 2-1.

Watford vs. Leicester

Out of the thirteen times Watford have played, I have only got four of their results right – they are a nightmare to predict. They passed the ball around well at Brighton on Monday, particularly in the second half, and looked a little unfortunate not to come away with three points. A key factor in their promotion push, will be the speed of Troy Deeney’s return to full fitness. He didn’t have the best game at Brighton, and it may take him a while to become the physical threat he was in the opening weeks of the season. Leicester have won their last three games in all competitions, and although all of those games were at home, they should go into this one in a good mood. Against Fulham, they actually made five changes from the line-up that beat Bournemouth, yet still came away with a dramatic win. I will go with Leicester for this, but you never quite know which Watford team will turn up. 0-1.

Birmingham vs. Charlton

A dramatic night for Birmingham on Tuesday. The team battled bravely to come from behind against Premier League opposition three times, with 10 men for most of the match. The team had to work extremely hard for 120 minutes, and there’s a possibility they will suffer a slight hangover from that game. Blues will need a certain amount of vitality to get past a Charlton defence which has kept three consecutive clean sheets, while Simon Church is tasked with replacing the injured Yann Kermorgant up front. Both times these teams met last season, it took an injury-time equalizer from Blues to secure a 1-1 draw - I’m going with the same scoreline.

Blackburn vs. Middlesbrough

An excellent result for Mark Venus’s side against Doncaster last week. It looks as though the ‘Boro board are waiting to see how he fares in the next few games, before deciding whether they need to appoint a new manager, or give him the job permanently. Venus has already completed what looks like a coup in bringing in Daniel Ayala on a three month loan from Norwich, the Spaniard had an excellent debut, scoring and looking very solid. Blackburn got a late equalizer at Blackpool last week to prevent a third consecutive defeat, but they have a number of players ruled out for this game and lack experience in midfield. Middlesbrough to win this 1-2.

Bournemouth vs. Bolton

Considering their away form is not one of Bournemouth’s strengths, one point from two testing trips to the East Midlands is a decent enough outcome for the Cherries. To be eight points above the drop zone in November is a good achievement, and they have a number of home games coming up which should help them consolidate. The concern will be that big money signing Tokelo Rantie has made little impact since signing, leaving a lot of pressure on top scorer Lewis Grabban. Bolton might be unbeaten at five, but their precarious position in the table tells you that a lot of those games have been draws. With the experience they have, hardly anyone would expect them to be just one point above the relegation zone, and throw away crucial leads in their last two home games. Bournemouth are higher in the table and at home, but on paper Bolton have a significantly better squad. 1-1 draw for me.

Doncaster vs. Brighton

Doncaster’s defence was looking relatively solid until they conceded eight goals in back-to-back defeats. At Middlesbrough they conceded three goals from set pieces, with poor marking and Paul Dickov needs to get a reaction from his players. This is unlikely to be a third tonking for the Rovers though, because only once in their last nine games have Brighton scored more than one goal. The Seagulls have a few creative, intelligent players, but up front they will lack a proven goalscorer until Ulloa returns. A Doncaster team who have been trounced in their last two, against Brighton who are without a win in five. Neither side are in good enough shape to be fancied to win this one, 1-1.

Leeds vs. Yeovil

Yeovil’s 3-1 win over Forest last week will give fans hope that they can compete in this league, and they are now only one point away from safety. The Championship often pulls out strange results like that, though, and it does not change my view that Yeovil lack the experience to stay up. Leeds are chasing a third successive home win, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, because the Whites have lost their last four away from home. In the striking department, they are benefitting from Ross McCormack playing further forward alongside Matt Smith, with Rodolph Austin given more of an attacking role. Yeovil’s win last week was little more than a one-off as I see it, and this should be a comfortable home win for Leeds. 2-0.

Millwall vs. Burnley

Burnley’s success story continued last week with a win over QPR, and the Clarets have won to nil in four of their last five games. They are looking incredibly well organised. The highlights of their game against QPR showed them getting men behind the ball when they need to, working as a unit, with Ings and Vokes being able to do the damage up front. Millwall have shown some battling qualities in recent weeks. Following two heavy defeats by Birmingham and Bournemouth, they came from behind against both QPR and Reading, who are much higher in the league, to earn two draws. The comeback spirit Lomas has instilled into the Lions will serve the team well as the season goes on, but with the way Burnley are defending at the moment, if they get the first goal they are going to win. 0-1.

Nottm Forest vs. Blackpool

The likes of Derby, Watford and Wigan will be hoping that one of these teams falls from the play-off places in the run up to Christmas. It looks possible, because the size and proven quality of Blackpool’s squad suggests that they won’t be able to keep their form up for much longer, plus the stadium ban for Paul Ince will not help them. Forest have recently dropped points against two of last season’s promoted clubs, and Billy Davies’s side have only kept one clean sheet in their last ten. A persistent injury problem for Kelvin Wilson this season, has made it difficult for Forest to rediscover their defensive nous. If this match is a draw and most of the teams below on seventeen and nineteen points win, the play-off chase will become interesting. 1-1.

QPR vs. Derby

QPR started this season looking unbeatable defensively and they were grinding out 1-0 wins left, right and centre. But just as I started contradicting my pre-season tip for them to struggle, they have now gone three games without a win, although all games were away from home. It is surprising given the wealth of experience in their team, but they should bounce back, and if they can complete the signing of Emmanuel Adebayor that would boost their attack force. Derby will be disappointed to have dropped points against Birmingham last week, although they had a lot of possession they didn’t create much on that occasion. Even though the Rams have the joint-best scoring record in the division, I would back QPR to return to winning ways with a clean sheet. 1-0.

Sheff Wed vs. Reading

The rumour is that if Wednesday fail to win this match, Dave Jones will be sacked. It would be the right decision from the board, because to be without a win before November is shocking, and the players need a manager who will shake them up a bit. That said, the Wednesday board have backed him in the loan market to bring in Connor Wickham, as well as Matty Fryatt recently, so this is the last roll of the dice for Jones. It will be a kick in the teeth for Reading to have conceded the late penalty at home to Millwall last week, especially as their opponents were down to ten men, but Nigel Adkins is a good manager and should get them focused for this one. I’ve got a feeling Jones might be looking on Gumtree on Sunday morning. 1-3.

Wigan vs. Huddersfield

Huddersfield’s win in the West Yorkshire derby last week means they are still among a group of teams hoping to elevate themselves into the play-offs. A positive for the Terriers, is that they are starting to show that they can score goals without the much-lauded James Vaughan. Each of their last five goals have not been scored by him, and his suspension may inadvertently improve the confidence of the team. If the likes of Jon Stead up front and Joel Ward from the wing start scoring as they did last week, that will create a healthy sense of competition within the squad. Wigan’s record of four wins, four draws and four defeats sums up their inconsistency, and at the moment the problem is scoring goals. Wigan have a new contract for McManaman and a loan move for Albrighton. Both will add width, but Wigan’s priority is a goalscorer, because they have plenty of wide men and only two strikers with questionable fitness. The Latics are unbeaten at home though so they will get a narrow 2-1 win here.

The Charlton View

Ahead of Birmingham City's clash with Charlton this weekend, I interview Dan Webster, a season ticket holder at the Valley. You can take a look at Dan’s blog http://ramblingfan44.blogspot.co.uk/ and follow him on Twitter @ramblingaddick

Here, Dan discusses the job Chris Powell has done, the factors behind Charlton’s defensive record this season, and he makes a criticism of his club’s owners - you'd never catch me doing that!

You were promoted as champions from League One in 2012, and escalated to a ninth place finish in the Championship last season. A good couple of years for your lot…

The downward slide was halted, thankfully. Chris Powell initially struggled but did a great job over the summer in 2011 to create a squad capable of lifting us out of League One, which was a trickier task than most fans envisaged. Powell had little room for manoeuvre the following summer, but made a couple of wise acquisitions which proved beneficial. There was a risk of being dragged into the relegation scrap towards the end of last season – more than half of the division had the same fears, such was the competitiveness of the league – but a brilliant unbeaten run saw us finish in an incredibly satisfying ninth place. A few bemoaned our bad home form for preventing us reaching the playoffs, but given the restricted dealings Powell was able to make, ninth represented a superb effort in our first season back in the Championship.

                                                                                                 

Chris Powell has done a good job

Although he was with Palace as a youngster, manager Chris Powell seems to be a fans’ favourite, having spent eight years at the club as a player. How beneficial can it be to have a manager who is connected to the supporters and knows the club inside out?

It is very beneficial. These days a manager is almost on borrowed time from the outset, but Powell’s status means the fans are more loyal to him. Initially he struggled when he arrived for the second half of the 2010/11 season, and a few thought it was the wrong move – showing that even a club legend can’t expect to keep the job if he doesn’t get results. But despite the stuttering start, he was able to bring in his own players that summer and the promotion from League One emphatically answered any critics he had. The fluctuating form in the Championship has tested a few of the more impatient fans, but the majority recognise the value that Powell brings to the club, chiefly through his excellent man-management and motivational skills. He is still learning as a manager, but with the resources available, and that cult status retained, discontent is rarely directed at him.

What do you make of your chairman, Michael Slater?

Mr Slater is not the most popular man in SE7. He, along with Tony Jimenez, stepped in to take the club over and avert a possible administration scenario. They also removed Phil Parkinson, brought in Powell, and backed him to gain promotion. Parkinson was doing a good job, but the players he had available to him were not good enough for the task. Powell was able to use money from the sale of Carl Jenkinson to Arsenal to bring in the right players for promotion. The board allowed him access to those funds, and for that, they deserve credit. However, it is since the summer of 2012 that problems have begun to emerge. Slater and Jimenez rarely communicate at all with the fans, often leaving us in the dark about the off-field situation. A lack of investment has resulted in a very limited budget being available for transfers, whilst a number of long-serving members of staff have either left or been pushed out following disagreements with the owners. It is a concern that there seem to be financial problems, as the squad has not been strengthened as it should have been, and whilst Slater deserves credit for his role in the club’s return to the Championship, there’s a risk that his inaction will see the club return to the third tier. Powell continues to work wonders with the players he has available, though, so the mood is not one of doom-and-gloom just yet.

Alan Curbishley had been your manager for eleven years, but he seems to be interested in the Palace job. Could you forgive him if he took it?

Curbishley managed Charlton for eleven years

It’s a difficult question to answer. Everyone at Charlton wants to see Curbishley return to management, but most would suggest that moving to Palace would display a certain amount of disloyalty. I could understand why he would take a job, given his long-term absence, but given the number of jobs that have passed him by, I wouldn’t suggest he’s the favourite to be appointed. He was approached by Wolves when they were struggling in the Premier League, and although it’s much earlier in the season, the squad at Palace isn’t one that offers a huge variety of options for a new manager to exploit. If he did take it, I’m sure “Agent Curbs” wouldn’t let us Charlton fans down. I just don’t see him returning after such a long absence, particularly given the position Palace are in.

You had one terrible campaign in the Championship a few years ago. You were expected to be promotion contenders, but ended up getting cut adrift at the bottom of the table. Can you remember anything of that season, or have you blotted it out?!

It was too horrific to forget. I still remember the night when there was a brief glimmer of hope – Phil Parkinson had been left in charge, and there was a real chance we could beat Derby and gather some momentum, but we conceded a scrappy, heart-breaking goal from a throw in that completely punctured any positive feeling. That moment still haunts me to this day...

It was an atrocious campaign. Relegation from the Championship looked nailed on from about January, not long after that Derby game. Alan Pardew had failed to take us back up to the Premiership at the first time of asking, and had managed to build such a bad squad that he was sacked after a 2-5 defeat at home to Sheffield United in November. Short of funds, the club had to stick his assistant – Parkinson – in charge, which negated the positive effect brought about by the appointment of a manager with new ideas and methods. The best bit came on the final day of the season, when Norwich visited the Valley and had to win to stay up. Charlton won 4-2, and the home fans started singing “Stand up if you’re going down”, and were very graciously joined in song by the travelling Norwich support.

It is not a season that is remembered with any fondness at all. An endless conveyor-belt of average loan players, combined with dreadful defending and incompetent management means that to this day Alan Pardew is viewed with disgust by pretty much every single Charlton fan. Hopeless at co-ordinating on the pitch, and unpleasant off it. 

Best moment as an Addicks fan.

Personally it would have to be the promotion from League One. Having supported Charlton on what seemed like a constant downward trajectory, witnessing that moment was made even more special. It was a crazy day, given we were playing away at Carlisle, but the results went our way and we nicked a goal to win the game 1-0. The post-game celebrations were chaotic and blissful. It was one of the great moments, particularly when you could see how much it meant to everyone, Chris Powell included.

How much passion is there for football in South London? Would you go along with the idea that it’s more popular in the north of England?

I wouldn’t have suggested there’s too much of a regional variability in terms of passion for football. The south of England is not the most represented region in the Football League for sure, but I would say that London clubs have played a role in that. Clubs like Arsenal and Chelsea seem to attract a lot of fans, and (depressingly) so do Manchester United and Liverpool. I think football’s popularity is fairly evenly spread across the country, but the big London clubs draw a lot of the fan-base down south.

Given that a lot of your buys in the last few years have been free transfers and loans, would you like to see your club’s youth academy be utilised more?

Chris Solly came through Charlton's youth academy

I think the youth academy is used far more than most clubs, in all honesty. Chris Solly has thrived at right-back since Chris Powell started playing him in 2011, and new talent continues to emerge. Jordan Cousins, Callum Harriott and Joe Pigott are three that have been given first-team roles in the past twelve months. At Championship level you need a blend of youth and experience – Powell has needed to bring in quality from outside the club, but that is not to say that the youth set-up is not developing successful young players capable of making a real difference in the side. Cousins is a central midfielder to watch, as he’s shown real composure and skill since being given his chance this season.

So far this season you seem to have been quite a defensive minded side. Are you concerned at having the joint-worst goals scored record in the league, or encouraged by three consecutive clean sheets?

The defensive focus has come about as a consequence of a lack of clean sheets, but after the 0-0 draw at home to Wigan we’ve managed three in a row. Obviously the new-found defensive solidity is encouraging, but it is not purely down to a lack of attacking ambition. Yann Kermorgant – the club’s main striking threat – has been injured of late, and the lack of goals in his absence is no surprise, given both the aerial presence and the attacking creativity he offers the side. Powell was forced to let both Ricardo Fuller and Danny Haynes go for financial reasons, and whilst Simon Church has been effective and energetic, Marvin Sordell has struggled to make a significant impact. Our ability to break sides down is noticeably weaker without Kermorgant in the side. Powell had to try out a number of formations to try and balance defensive solidity with incisive attacking, and whilst he struggled to find the successful formula, strength in defence gives reason for optimism.

And finally, your prediction for Saturday…

Kermorgant was forced off injured once again on Sunday, so his absence is a possibility. Hence, I don’t see this as being a game full of goals. Charlton will probably continue to employ a 4-4-2 with a narrow midfield, and attempt to nick a goal whilst staying defensively strong. Dale Stephens is a player who has developed his game this season, and Cameron Stewart – on loan from Hull – provides the X-factor on the wing. I will sit firmly on the fence and say that Charlton will either nick it 1-0, or draw 1-1. 

Gabriel's Away Diaries: Derby

I missed Birmingham's 4-0 defeat at Leeds last Sunday - only one meaning to the word ‘missed’ in this case. I figured I hadn’t quite suffered enough watching Blues lately, so I booked my tickets for Derby. A trip to Pride Park is one of my favorite away days on the calendar. Not too far, the locals are usually quite friendly, and there’s that pleasant walk along the canal to the ground.

I say that, but the main reason I like Derby away is probably that every time I’d been, we have won. I fondly remember my first time there. It was a similar time of year, about October, and Steve Bruce was under a lot of pressure. On the Tuesday night before, we had lost 1-0 at home to Norwich after a sequence of poor results. St Andrews was a horrible place to be that night, as a few boos, and premature chants of ‘Bruce Out’ began to filter around the ground.

So I went to that game very nervous, although me and my dad were in full support of Steve Bruce. I’ll always remember one idiot at the back trying to start a Bruce Out chant at 0-0, and some bloke behind me shouting:

“Sing your own fookin’ songs!”

We got a winner towards the end, as Stephen Clemence hit a shot from far out, it deflected off the back of a Derby player and seemed to take an age to go in. A massive three points. We then went on about a ten match unbeaten run, and got promoted that season. Happy days.

I headed off for New Street a little bit worried about the game, with Derby looking strong so far under Steve McClaren. It is easy to pick on McClaren for his failure with England, but he did well at Middlesbrough, FC Twente and had been assistant manager to Ferguson at United. He has a lot of experience, still a reasonably young manager – I think he’ll learn from his time with England. In any case, Derby were the league’s joint-top scorers and thirteen places above ourselves, so much to be concerned about. 

After a crushed 40 minute train journey of standing, I arrived in Derby for one o’clock. I’ve always thought Derby is generally a nice place. A lot of the home fans seemed quite friendly - they're northern enough to be happy to talk to away fans, but not so northern that you’re worried about your personal safety! The town itself had very much a post-industrial feel, the pub I stopped at looked like it might have been an old mill or something.

I got myself a bottle of beer and stood outside, chatting to a few fans. I probably wouldn’t describe myself as your typical ‘Brummie lad’, and one thing I’ll never understand about football fan culture is the obsession with drinking! I barely managed to finish one bottle of beer after an hour of tentative sips, whilst others next to me were probably spending more time queuing for another one at the bar than actually drinking it!

Anyway, after a while I made my way towards the bridge and over the river bank. Surprisingly there weren’t that many football fans walking by the river, most must have walked through town, but it was really quiet. It had the feel of a walking trip, rather than going to a football match. I stopped at the burger van along the way, as the man serving asked me:

“Whose your owner now, is it still the Golds?”

If only.

The noise built as I turned right onto the roundabout and neared the stadium, a rendition of ‘Keep Right On’ grew louder, I got to my seat with plenty of time for kick-off.

In the first half, Derby were much the better team. Their movement was superb, and passed it around well for such a young side. Nigel Clough did do a good job at Derby revamping the youth academy, and on that evidence they looked more than capable of reaching the play-offs. In the centre Elliott and Reilly were getting a little bit overrun against Derby’s midfield trio, who pressed them both back into a more defensive role. Our game plan quickly became ‘lump it to Zigic’, because we didn’t have the numbers in midfield to have much of the ball and dictate play.

When their kid Will Hughes played a ball over the top for the number nine Chris Martin, (who was declared fit after having just left Coldplay), I took a inhale of breath. It was only two minutes in, and if he had scored, another Leeds was probably on the cards. Thankfully a great stop from Randolph saved us, and Dan Burn desperately cleared it off the line. I was impressed with Burn. He won a lot of the headers and there was a massive improvement from his poor performances against Bolton and Leeds.

But Derby dominated, and a mistake from Paul Caddis allowed them to cut in down our right, and after a bit of a scramble, their forward Jamie Ward volleyed it in. He stupidly celebrated his goal in front of us, provoking a few ‘gestures’, and rightfully so. It annoys me when footballers celebrate in front of the opposition fans – there’s no need. A mistimed tackle for their goal topped a bad day for Caddis. Whenever he got the ball on the right he could never seem to hold onto it, only ever clearing his lines when a short pass to Callum Reilly was available. Caddis hasn’t looked quite as confident as he did last season, when he would just run at defenders and attack the flank.

When losing, an injury to Chris Burke is never good news, and on came academy graduate Demarai Gray. A lot of people on social media seem to be saying he did well, but I get the feeling that comes with a hint of bias, for wanting someone from the youth system to do well. I thought he struggled to adapt physically, was barged off the ball a lot of times. At 17, he still has a lot of developing to do.

Considering they were treated to a lot of good football, the Derby fans weren’t vocal at all. Having had the fourth highest attendance in the Championship last season, I at least expected the block of Rams fans next to us to be in good voice. They hardly made a sound all game, making the persistent drummer’s job a little bit hollow. Whereas, when their fans briefly teased us about the goal, we responded with typical Blues humour: “you’re nothing special, we lose every week.”

Into the second half, we worked a lot harder without the ball to deny Derby any chances. Credit to the players for the effort. After back-to-back defeats, and 1-0 down against a good, possession side, it would have been easy to cave in. But a high ball over the top found substitute Novak, he finished really well with his first touch.

I wanted to say to him: “come on mate, who are you and what have you done with Lee Novak?”

Everything about that finish went against my thoughts on his playing ability. Because his shooting had been so poor, I was expecting him to buckle under the pressure and either have too heavy a first touch, or mishit the shot. But the confidence he took the goal with was staggering, and if he starts banging them in now, a slice of humble pie is required on my part.

We were holding on at the end. Derby had a couple of free-kicks, which I had a horrible feeling would go in, but we survived the pressure and came away with a draw.

The train back was filled with happy Bluenoses who sang for most of the journey. Starting with: “we’ve come to Derby and we’ve taken a point” to pointing and singing ‘Russell Brand’ at a man with long, black hair, who was now looking a rather embarrassed, and then of course a final rendition of ‘Keep Right On’ as we marched triumphantly through New Street. Overall, it was a pretty good day out. A nice town, it didn’t cost much at all on the train, but most importantly, it’s a welcome point towards keeping ourselves in this second tier.

This Tuesday night, it’s a different agenda as we play Stoke City in the cup. My prediction for this game depends a lot on how strong a team the managers put out. I’m sure Clark will go with his best players, but Stoke have got a tough, but important game against Southampton next week which Mark Hughes might want to rest a few for.

I would absolutely love it though, if we could reach the quarter-finals. It would give us all a reason to feel happy about our season, I would be really proud. And then who knows? The good thing about this competition is that the top clubs aren’t that bothered about it. It’s essentially a reserves game for teams like United and Chelsea, and that gives clubs like us a chance. If I was putting money on it, I would say that Stoke have a big enough squad to cope with our lot, who will be tired from a hard shift against Derby. But I’m not and I thought that about the Swansea game - look what happened? Stoke haven’t scored many goals this season either, so I’ll back my boys in Blue to grind out a 1-0 win.