Championship: Who Is Going Down?

Believe it or not, we are now two-thirds of the way through this Championship season, and the preverbial ‘business end’ starts now. In recent seasons, the run-in has seen Barnsley make the great escape, it has seen Reading storm to the title, and Blackpool get that last play-off spot to ultimately go up under Ian Holloway. Those moments are now in the making, as managers are preparing the players for that final push towards their goals. So far, it is fair to say that the Championship has not quite been at its unpredictable, dramatic best. But with teams now desperate for points, that is sure to change in the following three months. Here’s how I see things going with the battle to beat the drop, in part one of three installments.

The standard of the relegation battle, so far, has been relatively poor. Last season, Peterborough went down with fifty-four points, averaging well over a point per game. This season, Charlton are currently in that third relegation spot, and they have taken just twenty-four points from twenty-eight games. Barnsley and Yeovil have always occupied the bottom two places, and have looked a likely bet to go down since the start of the season. But will there be a revival from either of those sides?

Nick Proschwitz

Barnsley

Situation:

Pos 23rd

Pld 30

Pts 23

Estimated Points Required (EPR): 25pts/16 games.

Why will they stay up?

They are the kings of run-in resurgence, and stayed up on the final day of last season, under David Flitcroft. They are one of the Championship’s longest serving clubs, despite more often than not being embroiled in a relegation battle. The squad has done it before. Striker Nick Proschwitz has made a real goalscorer’s impact since joining on loan, and just one defeat in six suggests the team is remaining competitive in the Championship.

Why will they go down?

They have only won once since Danny Wilson took over as manager in December, and are averaging 0.8pts per game under his leadership. This is hardly the ‘honeymoon period’ most Tykes fans will have been hoping for. There is a lack of goals from midfield, so an injury to top scorer Chris O’Grady could prove costly. Not to mention Barnsley have one of the worst away records in the Football League.

Verdict

Things looked ominous right from that 4-0 home defeat to Wigan on the opening day. Unless the promising partnership of O’Grady and Proschwitz dictates otherwise, next season could well be Barnsley’s first outside England’s second tier since 05-06. Down.

Dougie Freedman

Bolton

Situation:

Pos 19th

Pld 31

Pts 30

EPR 18pts/15 games

Why will they stay up?

They beat the teams around them. Wanderers have taken a total of twelve points from six games against those below, which suggests Freedman’s side are a class above their competitors in terms of experience and quality. Striker Lukas Jutkiewicz has had a positive impact, scoring twice since coming in on loan recently.

Why will they go down?

Momentum - or lack thereof. The Trotters have not won a match since Boxing Day, and seem to be stuck in a bit of a rut at the moment. Given how much the squad is under-performing, the board might have sacked manager Dougie Freedman, were it not for the fact the club are reportedly in over £100M worth of debt, and cannot afford to pay a compensation fee. This issue to could affect the morale of the squad.

Verdict

Bolton should have enough about themselves to stay up this season. But, the core of their team possibly leaving this summer due to the club’s financial woes, they are likely to be in even more trouble next time around. Safe.

Roland Duchatelet

Charlton

Situation:

Pos 22nd

Pld 28

Pts 24

EPR 24pts/18 games

Why will they stay up?

Charlton still have the new manager card to play. As good a job Chris Powell has done, it is likely that the club’s new chairman, Roland Duchatelet, does not see him as the man he wants in charge. He may do something similar to what the Watford owners have done, and appoint a Belgian manager he is in contact with. Though it is difficult to predict what kind of impact this change would have on the players, often they are keen to perform well and impress when a new boss comes in. Importantly, Charlton have a number of games in hand on the teams above them.

Why will they go down?

The arrival of the new chairman could have been very unsettling for the players. If so, the problem will not have been helped by the fact that he sold two of their best players, Yann Kermorgant and Dale Stephens. Much of the squad which finished 9^th last season has changed, with sixteen departures since the summer. These are difficult times at the Valley, and the uncertainty at the top has come at completely the wrong time, with the team still in the relegation places.

Verdict

Those games in hand will prove decisive, and a possible change of manager might just fire the players up for the run-in. Charlton will be safe – just.

Abdoulaye Meite

Doncaster

Situation:

Pos 20^th

Pld 31

Pts 30

EPR 18pts/15 games

Why will they stay up?

As with Millwall, their home record is strong. They have not lost any of their last five at the Keepmoat, and the fact that the Rovers have turned over QPR, Leicester and in-form Wigan in South Yorkshire, suggests the team is more than worthy of competing in the Championship. The arrival of centre-back Abdoulaye Meite - who Bolton and West Brom fans may remember - has added a wealth of experience to their defence. Since he came in, Donny have only conceded five goals in seven games, so Meite is a very good replacement for the injured Rob Jones.

Why will they go down?

Goals. Their top scorer is Chris Brown (no, they’ve not signed another pop star) and he has only scored six so far, while Theo Robinson is battling a knee injury. Federico Macheda did little to impress on his loan spell, so Doncaster fans will be hoping for loan strikers Billy Sharp and Jordan Bowery to produce, as well as a bigger contribution from wingers Marc Duffy and the evergreen James Coppinger. If the saying ‘you’re only as good as your strikers’ is anything to go by, Doncaster are in for a struggle.

Verdict

They will be playing a lot of midtable teams towards the end of the season, and that could work in their favour. Rovers will not concede many goals with Meite in the team, but the key will be whether they can find a reliable goalscorer in their ranks. Safe.

Ian Holloway

Millwall

Situation:

Pos 21st

Pld 31

Pts 28

EPR 20pts/15 games

Why will they stay up?

They spent the first half of the season under a manager, Steve Lomas, who was captain of the club’s biggest rivals for nine years. The fans hated him, so that was bound to influence performances from the players. Now, they no longer have that problem, with the appointment of Ian Holloway in January. The Lions do have some experienced strikers in Steve Morison and Scott MacDonald, at least one of whom you’d expect to start firing consistently. Their home form has been strong this season, and crucially, their remaining seven games at the Den are against midtable, or relegation-threatened sides.

Why will they go down?

Ian Holloway has only won one of his first seven in charge, despite some winnable games. Like with Danny Wilson at Barnsley, he has not had the expected impact of galvanizing the team. Millwall will struggle to find momentum, in a situation where they have already played three more games than the team below them. The flip side of their positive home form, is that their away record is dreadful, with eight points from fifteen on the road. Five of their remaining eight away games are against teams aiming for promotion. In the entire Football League, only Crewe Alexandra have conceded more goals than the Lions, who are suffering from a lack of pace in defence.

Verdict

It can go one of two ways. Good results at home could boost confidence so they start to pick up results away, or we could see the opposite. My gut tells me that Holloway and Millwall is a bit of a mismatch. Lions fans, who naturally take to the ‘hard man’ characters like Harry Cribbs, ‘Razor’ Ruddock and Kevin Muscat, won’t necessarily appreciate the wisdom of some philosophical Bristolian, once they start to get a few bad results. Things might just go pear-shaped at the Den. Down.

Ishmael Miller

Yeovil

Situation:

Pos 24th

Pld 30

Pts 22

EPR: 26pts/16 games

Why will they stay up?

The underdog factor. Nobody expects Yeovil to stay up, and they will be under no pressure to do so. This is something which can work in their favour. Most teams that play Yeovil between now and the end of the season, will approach the game under the weight of expectation. As their better away record than home will suggest, the Glovers are at their best when faced with teams who attack them and push men forward. That way, they can soak up pressure and strike on the counter-attack. Loanee Ishmael Miller has given them some proven quality going forward, with five goals in eleven games at Hush Park. Underestimate Yeovil at your peril.

Why will they go down?

The fact that they have the lowest wage bill in the Championship, instantly tells you something about the technical quality in the squad. It is limited. As hard as the players might work, a bunch of ‘huffers-and-puffers’ will not win you games. They have home attendances of a measly 7,000, so the club does not have the infrastructure to compete at this level. Yeovil are just lucky to be here.

Verdict

They will not go down without a fight, but relegation beckons for the cider boys. Down.